Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Richo83]

Edwards has played very well as a small forward this year. It's not top priority to add another and probably something that can be addressed through the rookie draft with the high success rate there is with those small forwards coming from the rookie draft.

General defender is my way of saying a defender who isn't key position size. So small or medium. Just a guy who can fit into the existing structure without specifically saying exactly what type of defender it needs to be.

So another Morris/Ellis type? Sounds good to me. Although what pick would you be looking at?

 

[Knightmare]

So another Morris/Ellis type? Sounds good to me. Although what pick would you be looking at?

There is a whole group of defenders likely to be available around Richmond's 3rd round pick.

No need to use a 1st rounder on another backman when there might be a better talent available.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Probably a bit like the 2001 draft. Viney a little similar to Ball who was is a very good player and leader but you probably would rather have Judd - in hindsight.

A lot of that has to do with the fact Luke Ball was absolutely crippled by debilitating injuries though.

Most forget that prior to his OP, he came second in our B&F in 2004 (when we made the Prelim and had the likes of Robert Harvey, Fraser Gehrig, Nick Riewoldt, Nick Dal Santo, Aaron Hamill, Aussie Jones, Lenny Hayes, Stephen Milne, etc, on the list) when he was only 20 and that he backed it up by winning the B&F the following year, at just 21yo, in another year where we made the prelim (and had a much better team on paper than we had in 2009/2010, for instance). I have no doubt he would have been just as good as Joel Selwood had he had a good run with injuries throughout his career.

 

[Yoda_]

Hey Knightmare

Just wondering on your thoughts on 18 year old Tyler Blake from North Ballarat/Horsham and also 20 year old Paul Marschall from the SANFL?

At Essendon I feel we may look at getting a small defender later in the draft, possibly in the rookie draft.

The Bombers need better kicks coming out of defence and feel that Marschall in particular could be a real weapon for an AFL team.

Have you been to any of the combine days at MSCA? Jesse Lonergan is fast coming into first round calculations isn't he? As an Essendon supporter the romance would be perfect out: S.Lonergan in J.Lonergan, but feel he WONT make it to pick 32 (our second) after his blistering start to the combine.

Any players who are seriously hurting there chances of being drafted? Brodie Miocek style?

 

[Tazwegian]

Hey Knightmare

Have you been to any of the combine days at MSCA? Jesse Lonergan is fast coming into first round calculations isn't he? As an Essendon supporter the romance would be perfect out: S.Lonergan in J.Lonergan, but feel he WONT make it to pick 32 (our second) after his blistering start to the combine.

Any players who are seriously hurting there chances of being drafted? Brodie Miocek style?

Jesse will prob be top 20. Any further down than that and he is an absolute bargain. Most impressive power athlete at the combine by a long way, especially for his age group. Add to that he can kick goals and has a body that is ready for AFL, then he looks promising. Best midfield prospect Tassie have produced in a long time. With his injury earlier this year, I wasn't all that hopeful he'd go before pick 40, but he's fully fit, did well at the carnival, and has blitzed the combine. He should have shot himself above a lot of his competition.

As for the other guy I was hoping would blitz, Jackson Thurlow, he was opposite to Lonergan's story. He got injured at the wrong time of year, and although he attended the combine, he did so with a busted face and hand. No clue how he tested, but didn't hear his name mentioned. Not that that means he performed poorly, or that it really matters too much considering his injury, but I would be disappointed if that sling tackle prevents him getting drafted. He'd be the third Tasmanian all-Australian not to get picked up in a row. He is better than last year's all-Australians too, in my opinion.

 

[Yoda_]

Jesse will prob be top 20. Any further down than that and he is an absolute bargain. Most impressive power athlete at the combine by a long way, especially for his age group. Add to that he can kick goals and has a body that is ready for AFL, then he looks promising. Best midfield prospect Tassie have produced in a long time. With his injury earlier this year, I wasn't all that hopeful he'd go before pick 40, but he's fully fit, did well at the carnival, and has blitzed the combine. He should have shot himself above a lot of his competition.

Thanks for that bud I was hoping he may get to Essendon's second pick, but it seems more and more unlikely that will happen.

As for the other guy I was hoping would blitz, Jackson Thurlow, he was opposite to Lonergan's story. He got injured at the wrong time of year, and although he attended the combine, he did so with a busted face and hand. No clue how he tested, but didn't hear his name mentioned. Not that that means he performed poorly, or that it really matters too much considering his injury, but I would be disappointed if that sling tackle prevents him getting drafted. He'd be the third Tasmanian all-Australian not to get picked up in a row. He is better than last year's all-Australians too, in my opinion.

Seems like a few things have happened during the year that have hampered a few draft prospects this year. Josh Newman (Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country Representative) was king hit.. at school!!
It prevented him from taking any further part in the championships even though his solitary game he looked apart of it.

Whilst your here bud, any TSL prospects you like and think could be possibilities? Would love to hear more on the young Van Den Berg kid (sp) as well, seems a likely type if he grows more (to 192cm+).

 

[aussierulesrules]

Hey KM, does Jesse Hogan's very impressive looking combine change your thoughts or ranking of him? Top 10 in both the 3km time trial and the beep test are fantastic results for such a big unit that is regarded as having terrific burst acceleration as well. He's a year or more younger than many of them too, which would make those even more impressive I imagine?

 

[Tazwegian]

Seems like a few things have happened during the year that have hampered a few draft prospects this year. Josh Newman (Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country Representative) was king hit.. at school!!
It prevented him from taking any further part in the championships even though his solitary game he looked apart of it.

Whilst your here bud, any TSL prospects you like and think could be possibilities? Would love to hear more on the young Van Den Berg kid (sp) as well, seems a likely type if he grows more (to 192cm+).

I feel for Newman, that's terrible news.

It's not out of the realms of possibility that Lonergan would drop to 32ish. Tassie kids tend to get underrated a bit. I think it is because it's harder to judge their ability when comparing them to vic, WA, and SA kids who are consistently playing alongside a larger talent pool for their age group. This only happens for Tassie kids at the under 18s carnival. Robinson is a good example of a Tassie midfielder who should have been very close to first round selection dropping to mid 40s. I think Lonergan is a better prospect than Robinson was though at the same age.

As for Van Den Berg, haven't seen a lot of him play (mainly just from the under 18s carnival), but he did have a good under 18s carnival and was one of our better players and he is highly regarded down here. He made the TSL team of the season, which is an excellent effort for an 18 year old. He will probably need to bulk up a little bit, but I don't think that's a concern. I rate him an outside chance to be picked up, but probably will be a late pick up if he does. He seems to have slipped under most people's radar, haven't seen him in too many mock drafts, and he hasn't been the most talked about player in the Top Prospects thread in the TSL forum, but he is at the combine so you never know.

Our best TSL prospect though has to be Jaye Bowden. Absolutely demolished the TSL this year - won the Tassie medal. Mature aged player (23 years old), he'd be following in the footsteps of Webberly, Howe, and Hall. We seem to get one mature aged guy going a year, and if we only get one this year, it would be Bowden. Michael Musicka is still a chance to be picked as well though, he had a great year. He was probably one of the unlucky ones not to get a look in last year.

 

[Chris25]

Sounds like we're on the same page in regards to van den Berg and Bowden. And I was a big fan of Musicka last year, and have been talking him up every now and then this year. Like Max Duffy, talent wasn't the reason why he wasn't drafted last year. I know Fremantle were keen on Musicka, so depending on how many spots we have on the rookie list, I wouldn't put it past us to draft him this year.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare

Just wondering on your thoughts on 18 year old Tyler Blake from North Ballarat/Horsham and also 20 year old Paul Marschall from the SANFL?

At Essendon I feel we may look at getting a small defender later in the draft, possibly in the rookie draft.

The Bombers need better kicks coming out of defence and feel that Marschall in particular could be a real weapon for an AFL team.

Have you been to any of the combine days at MSCA? Jesse Lonergan is fast coming into first round calculations isn't he? As an Essendon supporter the romance would be perfect out: S.Lonergan in J.Lonergan, but feel he WONT make it to pick 32 (our second) after his blistering start to the combine.

Any players who are seriously hurting there chances of being drafted? Brodie Miocek style?

Blake had a productive year as a rebounding defender. Just so much depth of his type that not all can get drafted. Still in the mix late/rookie having had a solid year.

Marschall is that tallish defender with some serious rebounding abilities. Uses it very well and no decision making issues. If you don't mind going tallish he could be an option.

For what you are describing a Sam Colquhoun would be a good choice with his footskills as that smaller type.

Harley Montgomery is another I really like as a small defender and probably has a better two way game than Colquhoun.

The feel even pre combine was that Lonergan could feature somewhere in the first round. With the Tasmanian prospects their draft positions being those div 2 boys are always more difficult to calculate but I certainly like the value he represents mid-late 1st round as that strong bodied inside midfielder and he should be taken by the time Essendon have a live selection.

I'll need to get a copy of the full testing results (not just the top 10 in each category) before I can say whether anyone has dropped away badly.

Hey KM, does Jesse Hogan's very impressive looking combine change your thoughts or ranking of him? Top 10 in both the 3km time trial and the beep test are fantastic results for such a big unit that is regarded as having terrific burst acceleration as well. He's a year or more younger than many of them too, which would make those even more impressive I imagine?

He has tested well. The problem for Hogan is his rival for that no.2 minidraft selection (Josh Kelly) also tested exceptionally well and it could very easily go either way for that second minidraft selection.

But I have been very impressed with the way Hogan has tested (and genuinely surprised his endurance is so good) - even though AFL.com keep rattling on about Kelly who also has clearly impressed with his endurance testing I'd still be selecting Hogan first.

The testing is there more to back up your thoughts about players rather than build/drop their draft ratings with probably the interview process doing more to help/hurt a players draft rating if anything.

 

[aussierulesrules]

That's true, just knowing exactly how good someone's endurance is would certainly help though. (Unfortunately, a few years ago, we knew how bad Nicholas Winmar's endurance was, yet we picked him with our first pick anyway and it doesn't look to have improved one iota since then!)
There wouldn't be too many as big as Hogan in the AFL with his sort of endurance, I don't imagine.

 

[Tazwegian]

Sounds like we're on the same page in regards to van den Berg and Bowden. And I was a big fan of Musicka last year, and have been talking him up every now and then this year. Like Max Duffy, talent wasn't the reason why he wasn't drafted last year. I know Fremantle were keen on Musicka, so depending on how many spots we have on the rookie list, I wouldn't put it past us to draft him this year.

Yeah, I think I saw you having Bowden go as a late selection. I reckon that may be about right, but he is at the Vic state screening at the moment so will wait and see how he goes there. Interestingly though, Bowden has way better TSL form than Jeremy Howe and Aaron Hall had. I think it is probably the best season anyone has put in in the TSL since it was re-established. Being only 23 and having a tonne of talent won't hurt him. Howe went around 34, from memory, so it is not inconceivable that Bowden will be a similar smokey. I think Howe surprised everyone with how high he went (not for the first time), but it turned out to be a smart pick from Melbourne. I think anyone who takes Bowden around ~40 won't be too disappointed with what they get either.

Would be great to see Musicka heading to Fremantle. Not sure that we should read anything into him not getting an invite to a state screening though?

Last guy I wanted to discuss from the TSL is Brady Jones. Absolutely loved his work as our second keeper for the Tasmanian Tigers, so was surprised to see his name start to pop up for the TSL representative team that played the VFL, and then as a possibly draftee. Obviously a very good allround sportsperson. Brady was selected as the centre for the TSL team of the year, he has been excellent. I have some doubts will around his athleticism, so I think his chances may hinge somewhat on his performance at the state screening. I am not getting too excited about his chances though. But, he could be a bit of a George Burbury.

 

[Tazwegian]

I'll need to get a copy of the full testing results (not just the top 10 in each category) before I can say whether anyone has dropped away badly.

Are you a good chance to get your hands on a copy? I'd like to see it also.

 

[blueiris]

With Tippett headed to Sydney and Viney could be headed to either Gold Coast or Melboune what are our chances of getting a mini pick and drafting Hogan

 

[Knightmare]

Are you a good chance to get your hands on a copy? I'd like to see it also.

Just depends if posted online.

I'm sure if it is around it will be circulating around bigfooty but will let you know if I come accross it.

With Tippett headed to Sydney and Viney could be headed to either Gold Coast or Melboune what are our chances of getting a mini pick and drafting Hogan

Melbourne still have pick 4 and the Dogs have picks 5+6 so it really depends on whether they make a plays at the minidraft selections.

Pick 8 is probably around the currency that will be demanded for the minidraft selection 2 but it just depends on who wants it most.

Probably more likely than not some other club ends up with Hogan but Brisbane are certainly in the mix.

 

[zeeCFC]

Perhaps it's been mentioned, but why have you selected a KPF for the Blues Knightmare? I can't really see us taking another tall while we have Waite, Casboult, Mitchell, Rowe ready to go next year with Hampson, Kreuzer, Henderson, White also capable of pinch hitting. Is the pick best available or is there a reason why we wouldn't choose Kennedy/Stringer etc.

Also great work with all the mocks, you really keep plenty of us entertained and informed when not many others can without footy on, appreciate the work that goes into it

 

[Knightmare]

Perhaps it's been mentioned, but why have you selected a KPF for the Blues Knightmare? I can't really see us taking another tall while we have Waite, Casboult, Mitchell, Rowe ready to go next year with Hampson, Kreuzer, Henderson, White also capable of pinch hitting. Is the pick best available or is there a reason why we wouldn't choose Kennedy/Stringer etc.

Also great work with all the mocks, you really keep plenty of us entertained and informed when not many others can without footy on, appreciate the work that goes into it

Until last night I have avoided giving Carlton a key forward and as an outsider my feel with the Carlton list is unless a high level key forward can be acquired then it's not worth adding one.

I understand that Carlton have Rowe and Casboult coming through, but with Tippett choosing Sydney and Mick Malthouse making the point that he wants a high level power forward I wouldn't be shocked to see Carlton look at Mason Shaw through the draft if deemed best available (which early is the key) because I just don't see Rowe or Casboult developing into that high level, 50 goal a year key forward Shaw could be with some years in the system. He just feels like a strong fit in that Carlton forward structure as that tall, deep forward who can kick a bag on any given day.

My selections shuffle around plenty and when trade week happens I'm sure to shuffle around my selections quite a bit more so chances are Carlton will have a different selection next week.

Menzel with his footskills was the other I strongly considered for Carlton along with Stringer but I expect both to go later 1st round so I wanted to keep the general draft ranges somewhere closer to where I see them going on draft day.

 

[blueiris]

I think Port Adelaide would love Sam Mayes if still avilable they will take him

 

[aussierulesrules]

Hey KM, chris25, or anyone else, has anyone heard from the AFL exactly how the compo for losing someone through free agency is going to work?
ie. if Port don't have anything else to do with free agency this year, will they get two picks as compo for losing Pearce and Chaplin, or will their compo be "combined" into one, 'band 1' first round pick, immediately after their first pick, as some are suggesting (due to the fact their combined incomes could come to $800K+ per year and they are both only 26yo)?

I don't think I've ever heard anything "official" about what happens when two or more "free agents" leave one club.

 

[Trav 20]

On pick 4 interestingly it doesn't have a success rate as high as you'd expect and going through the years I'd probably take the Wellingham + Dawes combo over many of those recent pick 4s.

I understand why you say this, and you may be right with that particular combination, but I know you'll agree that it's flawed logic.

When analysing the merits of pick 4 it's worth noting that the entire field beyond pick 4 is available. If one lists all of the players taken between picks 4 and 10 you get an indication of the talent on offer each respective year. You've just got to get the pick right. You've got to back yourself to get a Pavlich, or Franklin (hard), or Selwood, etc.

Wellingham is probably worth around pick 20 and Dawes in the 30's, so pick 4 for both is ridiculous.

 

[CotchIsKing]

KM,

I notice you have moved Wines up to pick #7 and moved Richmond to take Garner at #9. Interested to know why you think Garner is right for the Tigers at #9 particularly when you have him at #24 in your power rankings.

 

[santa claws]

have to admit havent seen much and am talking from ignorance but what i have seen id like richmonds draft to go along these lines. most of my selections are wa boys as thats who i have seen the most.
our midfield depth was shown up to be very shallow this yr so for me our first 3 picks should go on mids or utilities.
9/ stringer has to be the most talented player in this draft i liken him to pavlich. could be a power forward like pavlich or he could perform every bit as well as pavlich in the mid field.would be gobsmacked injury or no injury if he slipped outside the top 10.
vlastuin is my choice here should stringer be gone.

29/ sam lowrie doubt he will be here at this pick.

31/ dean towers

50/ one of nick rodda/tom lee/alex howson. all kpds with two capable of playing forward.

68/ max duffy classy medium forward

86/ cameron symonds we need a junior ruckman now that browne has been cut he looks a real prospect to me.

yep would be real happy with that sort of outcome. 3 mids 1 classy medium forward something we lack, 1 genuine kpd we only have 4 on our list. 1 young ruckman the reality is theres only maric and there is no real succesion plan to replace him down the track.

 

[bananatigz]

Interested to hear your thoughts behind richmond needing another medium defender, one of the areas in my opinion we are pretty set for.

FB: Morris Chaplin Grimes
HB: Houli Griffiths Rance
INT: Batchelor, Newman

I know Batchelor isn''t maybe too highly regarded outside of richmond but within he is considered as a 200 game player and future leader. further then this we have matt dea, who im not convinced with but did play very well in the last 2 games, helbig who has had an unlucky string of injuries but has looked alright at times and verrier who was really our only rookie who had a good year last year.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

To be honest I'm not sure you can carry Houli in your back-line as a starting 'defender' if you want to challenge for a top 6 spot - vulnerable one on one.

 

[bananatigz]

chuck batchelor in then if you want all 6 to be good one on one defenders, houli is there to rebound and get it out of our back half, wouldn't say grant birchall is a fantastic one on one or defensively minded player.