Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[Nickos66]

Any reason why you believe Aiden Corr might be a chance for Freo at 17 KM??

 

[Knightmare]

KM- I think if Melb don't keep their word Wines may slip to Port at 7!

Macrae is in the gun for WB, Bris or Carl.

Bullies still not settled, looking at Wines/Toumpas, Very keen on Mayes as well as either Stringer or Menzel (won't pick both). I think they may go Mayes and Menzel as best available.

Port get Wines.

Bris either Macrea or jaksch, Carlton take the other at 11.

GWS would like Jaksch, but gone will probably pick Corr and pick Grundy at 14.

Simpson to GC.

Vlastuin is set for Tigers

Stringer to Collingwood?

Thanks for the response Raymann.

Some really interesting ones I had not considered! And here I was thinking I had all possible outcomes covered.

Wines to Port Adelaide? Wow. Could WBD really overlook him? I guess if they take Menzel and Macrae/Stringer perhaps it happens. Really interesting situation I had not given enough thought to.

Stringer to Collingwood? Don't get me too excited! I'd much rather enter with low expectations and come out surprised with a guy I didn't expect available!
Late word I'm hearing is that GWS are happy to risk Stringer at 12 (can it be called a risk?) while also hoping to take Grundy at 14. Yet to hear confirmation if true re. Stringer but one to look out for today and hopefully more information comes out on this. I'm also speculating Port Adelaide might be looking at him but you might well be right about the Wines link being the Victorian they are talking to. I'm also hearing North Melbourne showing some strong late interest in Stringer so if available there by the sounds of it they don't be so certain he gets through to Geelong at 16 or Collingwood at 18. .
Stringer's placement if high could really change the dynamic of the first round and shuffle some of the selections which will be interesting to watch but can't yet be written out.

According to Sam Landsberger earlier today Port were talking to a Vic star at his home. If Raymann's scenario is right that would probably be Wines.

Interesting to hear. Might be onto something.

Any reason why you believe Aiden Corr might be a chance for Freo at 17 KM??

A best available selection and just so happens to slide to 17 in this order which isn't so bad with Fremantle needing more talls anyway. Corr is rated highly internally by a number of AFL clubs with a number of clubs reportedly rating him inside their top 10 and consider him the best shutdown defender with his elite athleticism for his size. Whether Fremantle rate him at 17 remains to be seen but with a late order shuffle Corr could see himself slide from the expected early-mid first round position he was expected to go late last week to somewhere around Fremantle's selection.

 

[CallumBartlett]

Did you change this recently?

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Thanks for the response Raymann.

Some really interesting ones I had not considered! And here I was thinking I had all possible outcomes covered.

Wines to Port Adelaide? Wow. Could WBD really overlook him? I guess if they take Menzel and Macrae/Stringer perhaps it happens. Really interesting situation I had not given enough thought to.

Don't know if Brett Anderson from Inside Footy has cred with you but n4nirvana posted some of Anderson's tweets on the Port Board last night where he thought Wines was now a 'big chance' to go to Port.

Link to Port Board first round discussion

 

[Sunny_]

Did you change this recently?

KM's mock is constantly in a state of flux.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Is there zero chance the dogs will be keen on Grundy? 2 top picks so they could go tall and small and win both? or is Cordy that lock in 5-8 year ruck? just havnt seen enough of Cordy myself to be sure? seems to play forward with Minson in the team?

 

[go_the_dockers]

Is there zero chance the dogs will be keen on Grundy? 2 top picks so they could go tall and small and win both? or is Cordy that lock in 5-8 year ruck? just havnt seen enough of Cordy myself to be sure? seems to play forward with Minson in the team?

The buldogs have Cordy, Jordon Roughhead and Minson.

The have plenty of needs but a ruck isnt one.

I would expect them to concentrate on Mid's (outside more than inside - they have Libber and Wallis) and one KPF (Don't really have one) and one KPD (Lake replacement).

 

[Knightmare]

Did you change this recently?

Yesterday/last night some time I updated the draft - understanding that O'Rourke and Plowman at 2+3 are now done deals. It's caused some further moment in the 1st round. Additionally changed the Collingwood selections. Probably a couple of other changes here and there where I've heard strong rumours but no major overhaul needed with the media putting together a pretty similar 1st round to what I have.

Will get another update in tonight/tomorrow before the draft with a few tweaks where appropriate.

 

[Knightmare]

Is there zero chance the dogs will be keen on Grundy? 2 top picks so they could go tall and small and win both? or is Cordy that lock in 5-8 year ruck? just havnt seen enough of Cordy myself to be sure? seems to play forward with Minson in the team?

I'd do it in the Dogs position. Too goo to pass up. No interest indicated with Port Adelaide, Richmond and GWS the only clubs looking at Grundy with GWS at 14 the most likely destination with Richmond from reports sold on Vlastuin and Port Adelaide looking midfield first also.

 

[CallumBartlett]

Yesterday/last night some time I updated the draft - understanding that O'Rourke and Plowman at 2+3 are now done deals. It's caused some further moment in the 1st round. Additionally changed the Collingwood selections. Probably a couple of other changes here and there where I've heard strong rumours but no major overhaul needed with the media putting together a pretty similar 1st round to what I have.

Will get another update in tonight/tomorrow before the draft with a few tweaks where appropriate.

Cool, cheers your mock is always a fantastic read. A couple of hypotheticals/questions:

Is there a possibility that Wines could get through to Carlton at 11? The bulldogs could take MacRae, Stringer or Menzel, Port taking Mayes, Brisbane taking Jaksch or the one the Bulldogs don't take, Richmond taking Grundy (They do need a developing ruckman) and obviously Essendon committed to Daniher, I mean it would be the steal of the draft but is it really that crazy?

Also you seem to not rate Kristian Jaksch that high? Sure his consistency has been an issue but he would have to be the best KPP in the draft by a margin (excluding Daniher), whats your take on him and are Brisbane a real chance to take him?

Also from what I've heard Brisbane seem pretty deadset on Siggins at 33, that pretty much a done deal?

 

[juzzo]

Both Twomey and Anderson are saying Wines a chance to get to Carlton.

 

[Mofra]

According to Sam Landsberger earlier today Port were talking to a Vic star at his home. If Raymann's scenario is right that would probably be Wines.

Interesting - could it also be Macrae?

 

[Mofra]

The buldogs have Cordy, Jordon Roughhead and Minson.

The have plenty of needs but a ruck isnt one.

I would expect them to concentrate on Mid's (outside more than inside - they have Libber and Wallis) and one KPF (Don't really have one) and one KPD (Lake replacement).

Roughy is a FB now, and with Williams/Talia/Fletcher to fill out CHB KPD is one position we actually look ok for.

I'm one of the few Bulldogs that would be happy with Grundy, although his goals this year seem to be down more to agility or marking against smaller opponents than as a huge clunk so his value as a no 2 ruck may be lower than his value as a no 1 ruck (and I think they are specific and different).

 

[Knightmare]

Cool, cheers your mock is always a fantastic read. A couple of hypotheticals/questions:

Is there a possibility that Wines could get through to Carlton at 11? The bulldogs could take MacRae, Stringer or Menzel, Port taking Mayes, Brisbane taking Jaksch or the one the Bulldogs don't take, Richmond taking Grundy (They do need a developing ruckman) and obviously Essendon committed to Daniher, I mean it would be the steal of the draft but is it really that crazy?

Also you seem to not rate Kristian Jaksch that high? Sure his consistency has been an issue but he would have to be the best KPP in the draft by a margin (excluding Daniher), whats your take on him and are Brisbane a real chance to take him?

Also from what I've heard Brisbane seem pretty deadset on Siggins at 33, that pretty much a done deal?

Even with some media experts speculating I wouldn't expect Wines to get through to Carlton at 11. Hard to see him getting past Brisbane at 8 as an absolute worst case scenario. But who knows. Stranger things have happened. Wines would be an absolute bargain at 11 and I can't think of a better fit in this draft for Carlton. He'd elevate their midfield quality substantially and is that most ready to play and ready to produce inside midfielder of this draft class and would sure help Judd out with his inside play.

This year I like the midfield group more - just so much quality I can't go past it. With KPPs I tend to only rate them super highly when I consider them absolutely elite - and then I put them infront of all the midfielders. Otherwise I'd go for the midfielders first and for mine this is a midfielders draft.

Jaksch I've liked since u16s really before he was considered a serious draft prospect. His kicking is a highlight for a tall and his versatility is handy but I wouldn't be spending a top 10 pick on him. I just don't see him developing into the dominant player you need to spend that currency on a key forward.

With talls it's all about quality over quantity. 2006 was the draft where just the sheer quality of KPPs indicated that going tall early was smart but I don't see that same value this year or those players you can really build a team around.

Siggins is in with a chance at 33 but not a lock. Tanner Smith if available might go before him if available at that selection for Brisbane and depending on if Clurey is available to the Saints in 25/26 (very possible with my rating of Clurey relatively higher than that of most recruiters) that's around the range he is expected to go being early-mid 20s.
Siggins will go anywhere from 30 onward with Sydney and Collingwood also said to have interest along with Brisbane who all are strongly considering with probably another couple of teams with less public interest.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Emma Quayle seemed to be suggesting yesterday on Twitter that she'd heard that Siggins was a smokey chance to be picked up by Collingwood with one of their first 3 picks.

 

[Distinctive_]

Adelaide lost their first 2 picks.

 

[blueiris]

Tim Membrey is not the player Brisbane would be looking at not after we have already taken Mayes, Shaw at 33 would be better

 

[Knightmare]

Emma Quayle seemed to be suggesting yesterday on Twitter that she'd heard that Siggins was a smokey chance to be picked up by Collingwood with one of their first 3 picks.

I'd be very surprised, if Collingwood look at Siggins it will be at 39. Collingwood have a strong key defence group as is with Reid, Brown, Keeffe and Hartley. I would be surprised to see another key defender added unless we view the player as a clear top 10 prospect and ahead of two of Reid/Brown/Keeffe.

I'm hearing Collingwood like O'Brien, Kennedy and Lonergan. The needs identified by the club coming into the draft that are looking to be addressed are key forward (with the departure of Dawes) and some players who add pace due to the Collingwood midfield being relatively slow so the rumours fit with what the club have mentioned they are looking to address.

Tim Membrey is not the player Brisbane would be looking at not after we have already taken Mayes, Shaw at 33 would be better

Not a Membrey fan? Some clubs view him as a key forward, others as more of a half forward, others as a midfielder. As a key forward I rate him more highly than Shaw and he was just incredible this year from full forward and looks ready to go next year whereas Shaw will need more time.

With Adelaide now out of the draft expect Mason Wood to be available and that likely selection at 24.

 

[Knightmare]

Adelaide lost their first 2 picks.

Will include the change in my next update late tonight/tomorrow.

 

[Nickos66]

Hey KM, in all likelihood, wouldn't Brisbane or Carlton be the biggest chance of securing Shaw with picks 32 or 35 respectively? I'm just trying to dampen my own expectations here.

 

[blueiris]

Not a Membrey fan? Some clubs view him as a key forward, others as more of a half forward, others as a midfielder. As a key forward I rate him more highly than Shaw and he was just incredible this year from full forward and looks ready to go next year whereas Shaw will need more time.

With Adelaide now out of the draft expect Mason Wood to be available and that likely selection at 24.

I never said I didn't rate Membrey, just don't think he's the right forward for us we need someone to take over for Brown. Kerr, and Hadley, even said we would be looking at KPF to take over for Brown they don't need to play tomorrow can see Brown play at least two more years so we need to find a replacement in this draft so that they are ready for when Brown does call it quites. can't see Membrey or Wood doing that both are good forwards but we need the big bustling CHF to take Brown's place in years to come.

 

[Aldo]

I'm hearing Collingwood like O'Brien, Kennedy and Lonergan. The needs identified by the club coming into the draft that are looking to be addressed are key forward (with the departure of Dawes) and some players who add pace due to the Collingwood midfield being relatively slow so the rumours fit with what the club have mentioned they are looking to address.

If Geelong or someone pass on Stringer and he is available at Collingwood's picks, do you reckon they will pick him over O'Brien, Kennedy and Lonergan?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, in all likelihood, wouldn't Brisbane or Carlton be the biggest chance of securing Shaw with picks 32 or 35 respectively? I'm just trying to dampen my own expectations here.

I'm not sure Carlton take him. They already have a surprising depth of key forwards with Waite, Hampton, Rowe and Mitchell with the latter 3 all much the same height and type as Shaw so I can't see them even considering Shaw.

Brisbane maybe but I'm hearing they want one of Tanner Smith or Sam Siggins at 32 more.

I never said I didn't rate Membrey, just don't think he's the right forward for us we need someone to take over for Brown. Kerr, and Hadley, even said we would be looking at KPF to take over for Brown they don't need to play tomorrow can see Brown play at least two more years so we need to find a replacement in this draft so that they are ready for when Brown does call it quites. can't see Membrey or Wood doing that both are good forwards but we need the big bustling CHF to take Brown's place in years to come.

I'm not disagreeing. I see both more as medium forwards as opposed to key forwards also but with the pair generally rated more highly and with Tanner Smith and Sam Siggins more connected to Brisbane it might not happen early draft.

There has been some word that Brisbane might look at Scott Clouston or Justin Hardy as mature key forwards.

Some late news on Brisbane is that Wines might now be that slider with Brisbane rumoured to take him at 8 so that's one to look out for with Mayes the other strong consideration.

If Geelong or someone pass on Stringer and he is available at Collingwood's picks, do you reckon they will pick him over O'Brien, Kennedy and Lonergan?

Hard to pass up Stringer at 18. I'd certainly hope not and expect the Hine and co would come to their senses if it happened. Also if Josh Simpson slides it could change our plans being considered high on our list also but like with Stringer probably not available.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Interesting - could it also be Macrae?

Quite possibly. Or Stringer.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Quayle isn't confident Dayle Garlett will even be selected at all. She says St Kilda have already said no to picking him.