Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[yaco55]

From speaking with recruiters of other clubs they feel Melbourne are more or less taking the right players. Roos bringing in all the people he wants/needs will make it very interesting to see what happens.

Doesn't that mean that all the recruiters have got it wrong - It's not a perfect science !

 

[Zach Package]

lets talk about some medium forwards, preferably those who are likely to available at our 3rd (see first) round pick, I've got a couple of names on the brain, but there are more trained eyes than mine, ideal candidates need to be able to take an overhead mark, provide tackling pressure and have the capabilities to push up the ground a bit.

Sicily
Reynolds
Willsmore
Herbert
Scott (is he Rockliff mk. 2?)
Scipione

Thoughts on their overall prospects anyone?

 

[tigs2010]

Doesn't that mean that all the recruiters have got it wrong - It's not a perfect science !

Obviously it's not a perfect science but I refuse to believe that 16-18 teams of recruiters can get it wrong. Surely part of it comes down to development? From what I've gathered since 2007 (just going off those top 20 type picks)
Morton - highly rated and started off well and just went further and further backwards. I'd say development rather than bad pick.
Grimes - highly rated but injuries have ruined some of his development. Injuries.
Watts - highly rated though not rated 1st. Was still considered a top 2-5 pick. Again development rather than a bad pick.
Strauss - not so highly rated. Could well be a bad pick.
Blease - ability was rated but questions on his attitude? (no idea about his bad attitude tbh?) Hard to tell on pick or development.
Scully - was rated top 3-4 rather than 1st. Hasn't lived up to that level though so I'd say that's a development one.
Trengove - Was rated 1-2. Personally think he has OP injury. Otherwise he's gone backwards.
Cook - bad pick.
Toumpas - rated 1-2. Will be fine.

Most of those guys aren't spuds. They just haven't lived up to their draft pick and personally I think that's development in the most part. Hopefully for Melbourne it's not too late for some of them and Roos and co can get the best out of some of them.

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Obviously it's not a perfect science but I refuse to believe that 16-18 teams of recruiters can get it wrong. Surely part of it comes down to development? From what I've gathered since 2007 (just going off those top 20 type picks)
Morton - highly rated and started off well and just went further and further backwards. I'd say development rather than bad pick.
Grimes - highly rated but injuries have ruined some of his development. Injuries.
Watts - highly rated though not rated 1st. Was still considered a top 2-5 pick. Again development rather than a bad pick.
Strauss - not so highly rated. Could well be a bad pick.
Blease - ability was rated but questions on his attitude? (no idea about his bad attitude tbh?) Hard to tell on pick or development.
Scully - was rated top 3-4 rather than 1st. Hasn't lived up to that level though so I'd say that's a development one.
Trengove - Was rated 1-2. Personally think he has OP injury. Otherwise he's gone backwards.
Cook - bad pick.
Toumpas - rated 1-2. Will be fine.

Most of those guys aren't spuds. They just haven't lived up to their draft pick and personally I think that's development in the most part. Hopefully for Melbourne it's not too late for some of them and Roos and co can get the best out of some of them.

I've been really disappointed with Toumpas - Looks way out of his depth, and a touch 'scared.'

 

[tigs2010]

I've been really disappointed with Toumpas - Looks way out of his depth, and a touch 'scared.'

He'll be right I think. He's an outside player, playing with 1 midfielder. Couldn't have ended at a worse possible team for his game style currently. We won't see his best until Melbourne fix their midfield.

 

[manny100]

If the Dees are lucky Roos and assistants may bring the best out of these players mentioned in above posts plus bring in another couple of players they could be pretty competitive. Win a few more and get that % up.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Sorry T2M, didn't mean for it to sound like I was having a go at you. he is skinny despite what the scales apparently say, must've had lead in his pockets to weight in at only one kilogram less than Kade and combined with his shoulder problems he does struggle to stick tackles.

He is a great runner at any level. Good top end speed and really good breakaway speed, excellent endurance and work rate but his kicking is average and a lot of his kicks are rushed or fly off the side of the boot. Can be a good ball winner, especially when he's willing to get his hands dirty and win his own ball but often sits too far away from the contests and doesn't contribute enough.

You can get these Jimmy Webster types a bit later in the draft and I don't see what he offers over a Karl Amon who is just as outside but a better finisher. That said, everyone has different opinions and there could be plenty of recruiters who like what they've seen and are willing to go early on him.

All good, I'll have to disagree with you on a number of those points though. Like I said, Eli is lean bodied, he has the classic ecto shape of an endurance athlete. However, a lot of good players have that shape, it isn't a worry. I don't see him getting pushed off the ball easily, and he does stick a lot of tackles. Having a few extra kilos does not necessarily equate to strength, which people have to keep in mind. I'd bet Eli is stronger than a number of players with a bit more weigt than him.

He has the best kick of any of the draftees that I have seen from Tassie. He spots up targets very well, and his kicks are bullet like at times. All players butcher a kick or two every now and then, but you have to admit his field kicking is high quality.

Playing for Burnie, he is given a purely outside role sitting on the wing 90% of the time, I am sure he is just being nursed through a niggle. Spends a large amount of time on the bench also. But when playing for Tassie, he was given a predominantly midfield role, and was constantly involved. His work rate all over the ground was huge. The difference is definitely in the role he is given. I think you're right about his shoulder, and that's probably why Burnie are not giving him a predominantly outside role. Will be interesting to see where they play him this weekend.

I agree with Webster being a later pick. I have him around the 40 mark. I think Templeton is a class above Webster though. Much better field kick and decision maker, but similar in their work rate and pressure around the ground. I see Webster's potential as mainly a role player at AFL level, but Eli could be close to an A grade mid if he reaches his potential.

 

[ArdentEagle]

Knightmare, I see one of our major needs as needing an inside midfielder with elite vision.
Someone who is very creative by hand and can open the play up for all those around him.​

(It'd help if they could kick too but beggars can't be choosers)​

Which player in the up coming draft do you think best fits this description?
​

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I believe a combenation of these would be a great draft for WC. Knowing them however, they wont go near Billings, Bontempelli, Dunstan, Jensen or Garlett due to their conservative nature

6 - Billings / Bontempelli / Sheed
24 - Acres / Dunstan
40 - Jensen
61 - Garlett

Rookie 1 - Best KPD
Rookie 2 - Best Available

 

[THEOX]

The most significant mistake from Melbourne in my view have been in moving the veteran leadership on too early. James McDonald is still with GWS, Melbourne should not have been in such a hurry to move him on. Travis Johnstone, Brock McLean, Brent Moloney, Cameron Bruce, Brad Green. You need to keep these guys around for as long as possible and a part of successful player development comes from quality veteran leadership leading the way.

All of those above that where moved on was the correct decisions at the time. Jnr was handled badly but it was a correct call for a 34yo. As for the others mentioned if you think any of them had good leadership to pass on your mistaken.

 

[THEOX]

Obviously it's not a perfect science but I refuse to believe that 16-18 teams of recruiters can get it wrong. Surely part of it comes down to development? From what I've gathered since 2007 (just going off those top 20 type picks)
Morton - highly rated and started off well and just went further and further backwards. I'd say development rather than bad pick.
Grimes - highly rated but injuries have ruined some of his development. Injuries.
Watts - highly rated though not rated 1st. Was still considered a top 2-5 pick. Again development rather than a bad pick.
Strauss - not so highly rated. Could well be a bad pick.
Blease - ability was rated but questions on his attitude? (no idea about his bad attitude tbh?) Hard to tell on pick or development.
Scully - was rated top 3-4 rather than 1st. Hasn't lived up to that level though so I'd say that's a development one.
Trengove - Was rated 1-2. Personally think he has OP injury. Otherwise he's gone backwards.
Cook - bad pick.
Toumpas - rated 1-2. Will be fine.

Most of those guys aren't spuds. They just haven't lived up to their draft pick and personally I think that's development in the most part. Hopefully for Melbourne it's not too late for some of them and Roos and co can get the best out of some of them.

How is the development going with Morton at WCE, Gysberts at North, Maric when at Rich. None of these have/did improved at different clubs. Must be bad development programs at WCE, Nth & Rich????

 

[tigs2010]

How is the development going with Morton at WCE, Gysberts at North, Maric when at Rich. None of these have/did improved at different clubs. Must be bad development programs at WCE, Nth & Rich????

Melbourne having them for the early development years may have had something to so with that. I forgot to put Gysberts down but he was one that was considered a bad pick. Maric wasn't one I've asked about.

 

[Legend23]

Hey KM

Thanks for all your work on this forum, its facinating reading. I am an interested Sandy Dragons supporter and would love an outlook on their potential picks this year.
Kelly
Salem
Langdon
Ritchie
Amon
Hayes
Le Grice
Spencer
Munro
Merret

 

[Rockford]

How is the development going with Morton at WCE, Gysberts at North, Maric when at Rich. None of these have/did improved at different clubs. Must be bad development programs at WCE, Nth & Rich????

Morton has only been at WCE for one season, and had been at Melbourne for five. Gysberts has only been at North for one season, and had been at Melbourne for three. Maric had been at Melbourne for four and only got one season at Richmond. It'll take more than a season at a new club for them to kick start their development again. Their formative years were spent at the Dees, it might be too late for them but give them more than a season to prove their worth at a new club.

 

[Rodriguez Mendoza]

Thanks for the update knightmare, if Geelong don't trade any of there picks i would like us to take:
1 Luke Dunstan
2 Cameron Conlon
3 Cameron Giles
4 Fraser Fort
Rookie
Next best 200+ Ruckman
Dayle Garlett

 

[Knightmare]

Just curious Knightmare what your thoughts are if Richmond were to trade Dusty would pick 1 (Boyd) or maybe even pick 2 be better value then say a Lycett and pick 6 or longer and pick 7.

Not say these are trades that are likely more a point of curiosity for myself on the worth to a team of two top 10 picks vs a number 1 or 2 pick.

GWS want more immediate midfielders and stronger bodied midfielders but they're not going to give up pick one for that chance at Martin specifically as a troubled guy.

Pick 2 again probably not and the sense increasingly is that Paul Roos has no interest in Martin either leaving him to the rest of consider Dusty.

From there any of the teams with selections 3-10 may potentially bite at the chance at Martin without any one team having made that strong play for him as of yet.

A move of Martin for one of the young GWS boys in Dom Tyson, Taylor Adams or Will Hoskin-Elliott might be the alternative to the draft if GWS have interest.

But on pick 1 or 2, I'd go for that over pick 6/7 with a Lycett - even if neither are going to be offered for Martin. I like Lycett as a young ruckman and he's one of the better ruckmen going around but with the draft a relative lottery and no selection guaranteed that pick 1/2 is worth more as a closer to sure thing.
It's a one, maybe two player draft. After that you could have a pick in the 3-20 range and you may well end up with a better guy at 20 than the next team at 3 so in that situation when you evaluate the talent to be different to that level, that's when you go the quantity over quality.
But with Boyd specifically that highest rated talent and a potential franchise key forward you'd take that opportunity over most others.

 

[clipboardbinocs]

How is the development going with Morton at WCE, Gysberts at North, Maric when at Rich. None of these have/did improved at different clubs. Must be bad development programs at WCE, Nth & Rich????

I think West Coast got an absolute steal in Morton. Has got back to what he does best at East Perth, run and carry, then hit lace out.

Heard that he was told he'd spend a year in the WAFL to prove himself with a view to planting him in the side to follow on from Embley, on the basis he has earned that right.

He was BOG against Claremont in the preliminary and by some margin.

One of the rare wins West Coast have had of late.

 

[maverick001]

I think West Coast got an absolute steal in Morton. Has got back to what he does best at East Perth, run and carry, then hit lace out.

Heard that he was told he'd spend a year in the WAFL to prove himself with a view to planting him in the side to follow on from Embley, on the basis he has earned that right.

He was BOG against Claremont in the preliminary and by some margin.

One of the rare wins West Coast have had of late.

Morton had 16 possessions in a ten goal prelim final win. BOG by some margin? They must have been pretty special possessions. Wasn't named in the best

 

[clipboardbinocs]

Best on.

Had him down for 8 scoring assists.

When he uses the ball that well, with his 50 metre gallops, he's a 100 metre play with elite disposal.

Brendan Lee had it near on 30 times and didn't come close to actual impact on the game.

 

[Knightmare]

lets talk about some medium forwards, preferably those who are likely to available at our 3rd (see first) round pick, I've got a couple of names on the brain, but there are more trained eyes than mine, ideal candidates need to be able to take an overhead mark, provide tackling pressure and have the capabilities to push up the ground a bit.

Sicily
Reynolds
Willsmore
Herbert
Scott (is he Rockliff mk. 2?)
Scipione

Thoughts on their overall prospects anyone?

Medium forwards aren't my favourites unless they can also go through the midfield or do something to a special level.

Sicily can and likely does get drafted. He's a strong mark at his size but beyond that I'm not seeing what else he does better than the next guy.

Reynolds is young leadup medium marking forward. I'd like to see him get his hands on the footy more but he's someone who can do some serious damage and if he can find a way to get his hands on it more and be more involved more often then he could be a real threat for a team with that cannon of a kick he has on him.

Willsmore now that he has late season pushed more up the field and into the midfield and onto a wing becomes more interesting to me as a long kicking guy who can also go forward and take a mark. He's another who like Reynolds who has the opportunity if he lands in the right situation to make the grade.

Herbert was more a forward last year but this year has shown that he can play on a wing or even down back to a high standard as a strong marking type who can kick long but also cover the ground well and linkup. I like the versatility and as a wingman who can go forward and be a serious goalkicking threat that gives me some real optimism about his game.

Josh Scott unlike Rockliff hasn't shown that he can play up the ground and hasn't received that opportunity as more that undersized key forward. He doesn't have that same strong body as Rockliff does and he'd be hoping to become more of a Steve Johnson as a medium forward who maybe later on can push into the midfield. He's a productive forward and with his talents he could be a second inside 50 target so for a club looking for that he may be an option.

Scipione started the season well but then I feel dropped off slightly after that electric first month. He's a very good VFL player but hasn't shown enough ability to push into the midfield for my liking and is missing that one extra point of difference to take him over the edge.

I've been really disappointed with Toumpas - Looks way out of his depth, and a touch 'scared.'

You're right. But he'll also be better with experience and a better midfield around him. He's clearly not in the O'Meara/Wines/Vlastuin class as someone more outside but he can still become an excellent footballer with some of his weapons with that damaging kick and pace.

Knightmare, I see one of our major needs as needing an inside midfielder with elite vision.​

Someone who is very creative by hand and can open the play up for all those around him.​

(It'd help if they could kick too but beggars can't be choosers)​

Which player in the up coming draft do you think best fits this description?​

​

Crouch, Sheed, Bontempelli and Dunstan all fit that description reasonably well and better than the rest.

Bontempelli is probably that more creative by hand and as a taller midfielder whe can see more and is of the group along with Sheed that better kick so purely on that criteria. He's not the same contested ball winner yet and probably more a tall flanker who is showing some glimpses that he can be an inside midfielder but if you're ok with that he's the better fit for that description.

All of those above that where moved on was the correct decisions at the time. Jnr was handled badly but it was a correct call for a 34yo. As for the others mentioned if you think any of them had good leadership to pass on your mistaken.

Brock McLean not a leader? He was before the trade touted as the next captain of the club.

It doesn't all have to be pure leadership. Just having that experience in the ranks. Young guys learn from the experiences of the veterans and it's this the Melbourne youth has missed most.
Young guys can only learn so much from one another and when that sheer quantity of experience is eliminated it hurts the development of the youth.

How is the development going with Morton at WCE, Gysberts at North, Maric when at Rich. None of these have/did improved at different clubs. Must be bad development programs at WCE, Nth & Rich????

I agree none of the players you mention were strong selections.

Cale Morton as we've come to discover with the Morton boys over time is despite the obvious talent they're all soft and unwilling to put in the work required to become the stars their talent suggested they should. He was a consensus selection at the time but I agree with you someone who would fail in any system.

Gysberts was a big reach. I didn't rate him a top 30 talent in his draft year and seeing him at 11 was that one mistake big mistake from the club in that draft.

Small forwards like Maric don't need to be selected early which is something we've over time learnt with the success of guys like Milne, Betts, J.Garlett among others not even needing to go in the national draft with the evaluations on these small forwards as juniors often well off. Maric isn't a Cyril level talent so again I agree he didn't need to be selected to early.


In correctly identifying these talents who would have most likely struggled at most if not all clubs I feel obliged to point out some strong selections from Melbourne in recent times.
Sylvia, Jones and Frawley are some first round selections Melbourne got right. But lets look more recent with this recent period more the time Melbourne cop it for.

Dean Terlich and Matt Jones as mature age selections late draft have both proven to be relative successes. Jeremy Howe an excellent selection in the 30s. Gawn as a super tall ruckman was another success story in the 30s. Dean Kent as a selection in the 40s last year has something and mid-late draft was a strong choice. Michael Evans as another selection in the 40s has the opportunity to make the grade. Tom McDonald was an excellent value key defence choice in the 50s. Jordie McKenzie as a previous rookie selection has represented strong value.
Then the recent rookies have also looked good but then lacked opportunity. James Magner should be playing in the seniors and hopefully receives greater opportunity under Paul Roos and Mitch Clisby late season is another who has shown some promise as another clever mature age selection.

Melbourne have been inconsistent with their early selections. I absolutely agree but where our views differ are the total weighting of where things have gone wrong. The recruiters haven't nearly performed to the standard you'd hope but the coaches, development coaches, playing group, list management among others also are every bit as responsible for the clubs poor performances these past seasons and Paul Roos now that he's at the club will need to get every corner of the club right to improve the teams performance with the recruiters only one piece to the puzzle requiring many pieces.

Hey KM

Thanks for all your work on this forum, its facinating reading. I am an interested Sandy Dragons supporter and would love an outlook on their potential picks this year.
Kelly
Salem
Langdon
Ritchie
Amon
Hayes
Le Grice
Spencer
Munro
Merret

Josh Kelly is one of the more sure things at the next level. He's a high motor, precise kicking outside machine who will go all day. But he's also got his limitations and is more an outside piece who can be effective on a strong team with a strong midfield.

Salem is a hard, physical beast. Perhaps doesn't go inside and win as much of his own footy as I'd like for him to but again he's another role player who I feel in the right situation can be effective for a team with his tackling and physical edge firstly immense but then also the ability to play good two way footy and with ball in hand do some constructive things with his run and carry game as well as his ability to do damage by foot.

Langdon has again elevated his game this year and is doing some more good things as that tall rebounding type. It will be interesting to see whether he gets selected this year but as a skilled, tall improving type he's exceptionally draftable and someone who could fit into a back flank for a team if things go right.

Ritchie is an efficient user of the footy who can provide some rebound and has played some solid roles down back but he hasn't dominated any games to really put his name up in lights so he most likely goes undrafted.

Amon has something. Not a high disposal getter yet but has some electricity to him as a speedster with a damaging kick who doesn't need a whole lot of it to do something constructive. He feels like he could play wherever you need him so he's draftable and I expect to get drafted. He'll just need to find a way to get involved in more plays and do more damage more often if he wants to make the grade.

Hayes at his height as a forward is a marking threat but there aren't too many medium forwards who only mark the footy. He's just missing something. Not a great pressure forward, can't push into the midfield to a high standard. He may get looked at and has an opportunity to get drafted but he's not my cup of tea.

Le Grice is a tall defender who has shown some signs this year. He has the opportunity to get drafted. He's just a bit slight and not dominant enough 1v1. He just hasn't shown me that he's a dominant player by position which is what I look for in my KPPs as much as he is one of the better tall defenders in the TAC.

Spencer as a key defender is one is very likely going to intrigue a club with his athleticism and rebounding game at his height. I'm just not convinced on him as a stopper or someone who will win all his 1v1s every week which is why again I'm not as confident though I'm not completely down on him either as someone who on the right team could become something (perhaps a Geelong/Adelaide as teams among those with better development programs).

James Munro is that year older but he's had a strong season and even held up ok in the VFL. I believe he was a relatively late starter? He's a real running type who will go all day. Still by foot not great but he's a real improver and from what I hear a worker so I wouldn't discount his chances as a late riser who possibly hasn't been spoken about enough.

Merrett I like. He's not going to win his own footy but he'll still find plenty of it on the outside and do his damage. You can never have enough guys who can do damage by foot and I think he's a certainty to get drafted and someone who has a real opportunity on the right team to find a role.

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting notes on C.Morton fellas.

I look forward to reviewing some of his games over coming weeks if I get the chance.

Talent was never the issue.

Going by the sound of those performances he sounds motivated which is a positive sign.

Will be interesting to track his progress next year.

 

[yaco55]

Obviously it's not a perfect science but I refuse to believe that 16-18 teams of recruiters can get it wrong. Surely part of it comes down to development? From what I've gathered since 2007 (just going off those top 20 type picks)
Morton - highly rated and started off well and just went further and further backwards. I'd say development rather than bad pick.
Grimes - highly rated but injuries have ruined some of his development. Injuries.
Watts - highly rated though not rated 1st. Was still considered a top 2-5 pick. Again development rather than a bad pick.
Strauss - not so highly rated. Could well be a bad pick.
Blease - ability was rated but questions on his attitude? (no idea about his bad attitude tbh?) Hard to tell on pick or development.
Scully - was rated top 3-4 rather than 1st. Hasn't lived up to that level though so I'd say that's a development one.
Trengove - Was rated 1-2. Personally think he has OP injury. Otherwise he's gone backwards.
Cook - bad pick.
Toumpas - rated 1-2. Will be fine.

Most of those guys aren't spuds. They just haven't lived up to their draft pick and personally I think that's development in the most part. Hopefully for Melbourne it's not too late for some of them and Roos and co can get the best out of some of them.

If it was purely development; players like Morton/Gysberts would be blitzing at other clubs - And players like Cook would be picked up by other AFL clubs. And its not strictly a Melbourne issue. And going a step further clubs that allegedly have good development systems like the Swans/Hawks etc would never have busts with first round selections - But we know they've had busts.

 

[tigs2010]

If it was purely development; players like Morton/Gysberts would be blitzing at other clubs - And players like Cook would be picked up by other AFL clubs. And its not strictly a Melbourne issue. And going a step further clubs that allegedly have good development systems like the Swans/Hawks etc would never have busts with first round selections - But we know they've had busts.

I said Cook and Gysberts were considered mistakes by the people I spoke to. I think WC might get Morton playing some decent footy. The kid started his career like a champ and then went backwards so he can obviously play at the level. Do you really think Melbourne just got unlucky and picked the shit player with all the high picks every year?

I actually asked the people I know because I was curious about this very thing. As I've mentioned above it's a combination of development and picking the wrong players depending on the players.

Might want to give the guys at other clubs more than 5 minutes to improve.

Why would clubs pick up Cook when they considered him to be a poor choice?

 

[yaco55]

I said Cook and Gysberts were considered mistakes by the people I spoke to. I think WC might get Morton playing some decent footy. The kid started his career like a champ and then went backwards so he can obviously play at the level. Do you really think Melbourne just got unlucky and picked the shit player with all the high picks every year?

I actually asked the people I know because I was curious about this very thing. As I've mentioned above it's a combination of development and picking the wrong players depending on the players.

Might want to give the guys at other clubs more than 5 minutes to improve.

Why would clubs pick up Cook when they considered him to be a poor choice?

I dont want to derail this thread.

What I CLEARLY saying is that the recruiting industry sometimes GETS IT WRONG - The whole industry - This happens for a myriad of reasons and there is often no rhyme 'nor' reason. Even the top teams with good development programs get it wrong - Example; Patrick Vezpremi at the Swans/Bulldogs. My comments are not strictly related to Melbourne, it's related to all AFL clubs. And there are few, very few high draft picks who failed at their drafted club, who have turned it on at a second club. Your major exclusions are players who have returned to their home-sates after 2 or 3 years because of homesickness.

 

[ash84]

KM would u be upset if the pies took Mitch Thorp at #45??
Or signed Seaby as a rookie?