Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Chris25]

Im not sure Patolo will get drafted, I don't get the obsession with him. Not overly active around the ground and whilst his ruckwork is ok, 187cm!! Brady Egan is one I've heard some good things about, whilst I havent particularly noticed Gawley in the couple of games I have seen.

Josh Pickess may be another one worth looking at.

Whilst your here Chris25 where abouts is Nick Favretto going? really, really like the sound of him.

That's why Patolo would be a rookie draft choice - chances are he doesn't get drafted and he goes around again as an overager, but I'd at least do my homework on him. You're not picking him for an immediate impact. A couple of years with AFL coaching, and his general feel for the game will improve - and that's where he is lacking. His ruck work is already solid, and I don't think 197cm is too short - not if you can jump, and are strong enough. He's a project, but has enough to suggest it could be worth the time.

As for Gawley, I'd suggest he is doing his job as a key defender if you're not noticing him.

Nick Favretto has had a good year for West Adelaide. It doesn't matter what level he is playing in, he just keeps finding the ball. He'd be disappointed to not have played more at the U18 Championships, and he probably would have got more game time had he played for any of the other teams - but the SA midfield talent and depth was too good this year. He is still developing his inside game, and even at 88kg he is still more of an outside receiving type - although that plays to his strength, with his excellent speed. Doesn't truly hurt the opposition with his disposal though, which is the main knock on him - he'll consistently get 25 touches, but wont stand out. Given he could play next year if needed then a team may take him late in the national draft, but I don't see him going particularly early.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks mate.

I feel he is the kind of forward we really need, and while he is a bit of a risk nobody else in that range jumps out at me (unless Hartung slides, which is a possibility in my opinion). There's Brown and Thorp as mature recruits that we could pick up later but I'm not sure either would work well with Grant and Jones. Harvey is a very different type and could play that legitimate FF role we lack.

Is there anybody else in that sort of mold we could have a look at? Conlon is one I've been keeping an eye on and certainly would be on our radar as he trained with us. Past that it's a very thin draft for tall forwards.

Conlon possibly but having not seen him this year he is difficult to asset. 2nd/3rd round he is a possible as an athletic tall forward who can play some ruck.

Worth keeping in mind also. Next year will for KPPs be a strong draft and not so great for mids so there will almost certainly be some opportunities to take some quality talls.

Peter Wright, Patrick McCartin and Hugh Goddard are probably the top 3 selections if next years draft was held tomorrow. Then Sam Durdin, Jesse Watchman, Tyler Keitel are other first round chances as KPPs.
With GWS and Melbourne you'd think as the clear bottom 2 this year probably down there again next year it wouldn't be surprising to see either/both clubs auction those top picks off for more established talents.

They do have a good solid group coming through for 2014 (Giobbi - interesting that his brother was selected for the young guns game today after an outstanding year for the Dolphins) Ben Giobbi, Alex Hartnett, Rourke Fisher, Jack Lonie is going to be a ripper.

Not sure what to make of this years crop of Stingrays. At a guess, Jones and Hartung are the only 'sure' things. Clayton McCartney is a better than 50-50 chance to, but outside of that they might struggle.

Asked foj1 about Jake Owen, the 191cm overager from Calder Cannons who has been named in the bests in the most games for anyone this year (14/18) and has dominated some games. Is he SO much bigger than the rest? or is he that much better? averaging 21 touches and 5.5 handball recieves a game.

If you were at the game yesterday I'd say Christian Petracca is more an example of a guy who dominates based on size. He's 185cm, 96kg and can just push guys around at will up forward.

Owen not as much at 82kg. He's just smarter than most others at this level. Foj1 might be onto something with Owen. He's one of many overagers who has really stood up this season.

dustin Martin nom for this draft, what pick do u think he would go. I think he last longer than people think 7-11

Probably pick 3. St Kilda need a midfielder more than they do a tall flanker (Scharenberg) and he's a more dominant talent than Josh Kelly who is very outside so he could well go in the same position he was initially drafted at.

 

[bananatigz]

hey mate, who do you see as the best ready to go options in this year's draft?

 

[Knightmare]

hey mate, who do you see as the best ready to go options in this year's draft?

Matt Crouch and Dominic Sheed would be my tips as most ready to go.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Hey knight...Interested in valuation of Billy Longer if he quit the Lions and went into the draft? I ask as the trade silly season you get people suggesting his value may not be that high

 

[Knightmare]

Hey knight...Interested in valuation of Billy Longer if he quit the Lions and went into the draft? I ask as the trade silly season you get people suggesting his value may not be that high

Clubs tend to prefer those more established ruckmen rather than the young ones now so while he was drafted high I can't see him commanding that same level currency that he probably should.

A GWS at 9 or a Richmond at 11 would be the best case scenario trades with a Sydney at 14 or maybe a Geelong at 15 more likely what he'd command.

 

[texdog]

Hey KM, I was wondering who would be the best running backman, small forward, tall forward(not as much as next year will be the year for kpfs) & third key defender that'd suit the western bulldogs.
I was thinking our first: Lennon (replacement for Murphy and can fill lots of roles) second: Hartung ( I have a feeling Hartung will slide if not who would be the best for the doggies?) third: Jake Kolojashnij(spelling) fourth: ??? (Who do you see as the best small forward available here?
Thanks in advance.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, I was wondering who would be the best running backman, small forward, tall forward(not as much as next year will be the year for kpfs) & third key defender that'd suit the western bulldogs.
I was thinking our first: Lennon (replacement for Murphy and can fill lots of roles) second: Hartung ( I have a feeling Hartung will slide if not who would be the best for the doggies?) third: Jake Kolojashnij(spelling) fourth: ??? (Who do you see as the best small forward available here?
Thanks in advance.

Running backman: Kade Kolodjashnij
Small forward: Jay Kennedy-Harris
Tall forward: Thomas Boyd
Key defender: Darcy Gardiner

A more realistic outcome if looking to fill all these holes may be:
1. *best available* (eg. Kelly, Billings)
2nd round. Zac Jones/James Battersby
3rd round. Tom Vandeleur (KPD - probably the better of the others of an average crop)/Cameron Giles
4th round. Orazio Fantasia (small crumbing fwd)
5th round. Ben Brown (A key forward will be easier to come by next year but Brown could be a someone who could work his way into the team and surprise late draft)

 

[Chris25]

3rd round. Tom Vandeleur (KPD - probably the better of the others of an average crop)

I actually quite like this group of tall defenders. There isn't a lot in terms of top line ruckmen, and I'd almost have Sam Garstone in the top 5 for key forwards - which maybe says more about the depth in that position. But, the defensive stocks are looking pretty good to me - even if they are more likely to be mid to late round selections.

Outside of Darcy Gardiner, Daniel McStay and Cameron Giles both look like natural defenders and have the required size. And then you have Tom Barrass and Alex Spencer as solid options on the last line. Plus, you have the guys who are not true KPPs but project nicely as third talls - Tom Cutler, Jake Kolodjashnij, Tom Vandeluer.

Five solid options, plus some third talls is a more than respectable group. With a few rookie prospects left over.

 

[Knightmare]

I actually quite like this group of tall defenders. There isn't a lot in terms of top line ruckmen, and I'd almost have Sam Garstone in the top 5 for key forwards - which maybe says more about the depth in that position. But, the defensive stocks are looking pretty good to me - even if they are more likely to be mid to late round selections.

Outside of Darcy Gardiner, Daniel McStay and Cameron Giles both look like natural defenders and have the required size. And then you have Tom Barrass and Alex Spencer as solid options on the last line. Plus, you have the guys who are not true KPPs but project nicely as third talls - Tom Cutler, Jake Kolodjashnij, Tom Vandeluer.

Five solid options, plus some third talls is a more than respectable group. With a few rookie prospects left over.

It sounds like we have a very different outlook on the KPPs this year.

I'd draft Boyd, Gardiner, McCarthy, Harvey and Conlon. With Hourigan and Marsh as shorter types.

Beyond that I'd put a line through the rest. Vandeluer is good but I don't consider him a key defender and more a 3rd tall. Giles is the better of the others but I like others from past years more. And McStay also is another who is among the better of the rest as an athletic guy who can play pretty well on both ends without being a dominant as you'd like.

Barrass isn't strong enough 1v1 for my liking to make it as a key defender. Garstone doesn't have a weapon and isn't a contested marking threat, he's not a dominant forward and has no point of difference to seperate him as a key forward. Spencer again is another who probably isn't strong enough 1v1 and needs to win his matchups more consistently and become more than just a rebounder. Cutler is small for a key defender and as good as he is as a rebounder again he's not someone I'd trust to take an AFL standard key forward. Jake Kolodjashnij again 1v1 isn't as dominant as I'd like and when the ball hits the deck his second efforts are very slow.


I'll back in next years kpps with Wright, McCartin, Goddard, Durdin and Watchman all early picks. And Keitel, Moore, Jack Cripps and Bevan others who probably get selected.

 

[TheSunGod]

KM apologies if this has been asked before but which of the key forwards that might be available at the Gold Coast's second and/or third picks (18, 23) do you think would transition well to becoming key defenders, particularly those boys around or over 195cm?

 

[Knightmare]

*All up to date.

Added a bunch of new prospects with profiles. Updated the draft order and projected player ranges.

I'll probably add bits and pieces from here and continue to chop and change but probably not too many major changes from here.

 

[Knightmare]

KM apologies if this has been asked before but which of the key forwards that might be available at the Gold Coast's second and/or third picks (18, 23) do you think would transition well to becoming key defenders, particularly those boys around or over 195cm?

Mitch Harvey I think is a forward you wouldn't want to shift back.

Cameron Conlon maybe, but he's looked most dominant up forward.

If you want a key defender I'd be hoping Darcy Gardiner slides or pass personally with this more of a midfielders draft.

 

[ROYAL EAGLE]

35 D, 21 K, 14 H, 8 M, 5 i50, 1.0 G

Knightmare these are the stat's for Alec Waterman in Claremont's preliminary final win against Subiaco.
After being thrashed by South's in the last game, Waterman produce a game of leadership brilliance.
Best game by a player in WA colts for two years, amazing game, best game of his career to put it up in such,
a important final for his side.
Thought Subiaco would bath Claremont this week.
This kid keeps getting better that left foot is Hodge like.

 

[Chris25]

I'll back in next years kpps with Wright, McCartin, Goddard, Durdin and Watchman all early picks.

Well yeah, that's why they're considered top picks. And the guys I mentioned aren't. For the most part, I'm talking guys who'd go outside the top 50. Drawing a line through a 190cm+ 18 year old because he isn't strong enough is a little short sighted because that's only going to improve. It's like a midfielder who is skinny or inconsistent, that can be worked on. Natural ability is harder to learn.

I'd rather an athletic project of a KPP than a vanilla midfielder, even if they project as a third tall. And come the third round onwards, that's what teams will be choosing between. Besides, having a look at your updated draft, it would seem as though you agree with me - McStay, Pearce, King, Spencer, Vandeleur and Giles all going in the third round.

 

[Buddysurkidsdad]

Sam Lloyd.. Will he get drafted?

Adelaide are very keen on Lloyd.

 

[Knightmare]

35 D, 21 K, 14 H, 8 M, 5 i50, 1.0 G

Knightmare these are the stat's for Alec Waterman in Claremont's preliminary final win against Subiaco.
After being thrashed by South's in the last game, Waterman produce a game of leadership brilliance.
Best game by a player in WA colts for two years, amazing game, best game of his career to put it up in such,
a important final for his side.
Thought Subiaco would bath Claremont this week.
This kid keeps getting better that left foot is Hodge like.

Thanks for the review RE.

Gee that's an out of the box game! We might have a midfielder worth selecting early after all.
Hopefully the young fella continues to build on that game.

Well yeah, that's why they're considered top picks. And the guys I mentioned aren't. For the most part, I'm talking guys who'd go outside the top 50. Drawing a line through a 190cm+ 18 year old because he isn't strong enough is a little short sighted because that's only going to improve. It's like a midfielder who is skinny or inconsistent, that can be worked on. Natural ability is harder to learn.

I'd rather an athletic project of a KPP than a vanilla midfielder, even if they project as a third tall. And come the third round onwards, that's what teams will be choosing between. Besides, having a look at your updated draft, it would seem as though you agree with me - McStay, Pearce, King, Spencer, Vandeleur and Giles all going in the third round.

I wouldn't go for either the athletic KPP or vanilla midfielder late draft or as rookies.

Late draft or rookie depending on team needs I'd instead be looking at a guy with some pace or someone who I feel can become a role player rather than just a project guy.

I'd be looking at the small forwards, young ruckmen or a mature ager who can play a role for me as the types who have proven over time to be the highest % rookie selections and don't require high draft selections to get right

Crumbing forwards in the rookie draft draft have a great hit rate. Look at Stephen Milne. Look at Eddie Betts as a PSD selection. Look at Jeff Garlett. Look at Aaron Davey. It's something you don't need a high draft selection to nail.
You could easily pick a Charlie Cameron or Orazio Fantastia and find someone they become the next Garlett and Milne.

Then as mature agers what about Mitch Thorp, Nathan Gordon, George Hampson, Chris Cain. They are guys who can find role on the right team.
Michael Barlow, Jonathan Giles, Michael Hibberd as a PSD selection, James Podsiadly, Brett Goodes, Sam Dwyer have been excellent so who's to say a couple of these boys don't have a similar impact.

Then as ruckmen Dean Cox, Aaron Sandilands, Darren Jolly, Mark Jamar, Sam Jacobs and Shane Mumford have all proven to be excellent rookie ruckman.
It's not a deep group this year for ruckman. Perhaps a Steffe might be an option who develops into a Robert Warnock type ruckman with time but in a draft deeper with ruckmen there may be more good options who could be worth exploring for a team needing that next generation ruckman. Alternatively a team might go more progressive and look at an international ruckman as a development project and find something if they can find a unique athletic talent with a point of difference.

So these are the types you go for as rookies if you feel you've identified the right players. Not your KPPs or vanilla midfielders.


With KPPs it's all about finding that most elite talent by position. For key forwards particularly you really have to be an elite talent or it's just not worth drafting them.
History suggests with the key forwards more than any other position that it takes those early draft selections (or more specifically guys selected in the first two rounds)/father sons/prelisted/zone or in the case of Taylor Walker a NSW/ACT scholarship to make it happen. Not too many mildly talented key forwards or project key forwards have made it big in recent memory and it's not something I'd recommend any club make a habit of.

 

[Pykie]

McDonald with another 25 touches today against Box Hill and in the bests again.

Saves himself for finals it seems, with the TAC Cup last year and VFL this year.

 

[Chris25]

All I'll say is that the second tier KPPs I've mentioned have just as much talent as those taken in the second round last year, and are comparable to what you get in the late rounds in any draft. Yes, they have weaknesses. But all players do. I'd be happy taking them, particularly the later it gets. It's the same as the project ruckmen who get taken as rookies.

And you misunderstood my post. I was saying a lot of the midfielders available late are vanilla, not that that's who I would suggest targeting.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

Templeton as an u16 was dominant and he's still good but he's a light body and a relative non-improver.

Templeton is very much a reach in the first round and he'll be available in the 2nd round for clubs, no problem.

Kolodjashnij is an improving tall back flanker/wingman and while he'll remain outside and light bodied I'm increasingly confident in his game and production. He'll remain outside which is why I wouldn't use a top 10 selection on him, but a selection inside the top 20, sure. He'll find plenty of it, use it well and provide some run and carry so he can find a role.

Templeton I'm not so sure finds a role. He can play a little bit everywhere but he doesn't have that point of difference and I'm not seeing a position he settles in and develops into. He's played well against the light bodies but as the bodies have become stronger he's found life harder and I can't help thinking that he'll struggle at the top level.
I see him as a boarderline guy. He's not someone I'd select and he's more on the boarderline of my ratings as someone I'd rate around 60 but I don't have enough faith in to draft with any level of confidence.
He'll still probably go on draft day though. He's rated by enough others.

Dude This is all just plain wrong. Let's end the light body thing right now. In terms weight, he is less light for less height than Lachie Whitfield. He is not light bodied, wiry would be a better term, or lean-framed. That lean frame is probably advantageous more than anthing.

Second, where do you even get the idea he struggles against the big bodies? Watching him in the TSL, the first thing, or second apart from his penetrating kicking style, is his tackling and pressure. The reason he isn't being named in Burnie's best is that they are almost exclusively playing him on the wing. IF he were given a role in the square, he'd be more consistently in their best. Secondly, I reckon he is carying an injury niggle, which is why he is being played on the wing. He gets rotated on the bench regulalry, probably only gets about 70% game time. Even so, he managed to be Burnie's best against Launceston in the first final two weeks ago. Had a quieter game yesterday, but his pressure was good.

He is the most skilled Tasmanian to come through for awhile. I am becoming more of a Kade fan, but I would not be surprised if Templeton is the best Tasmanian from this draft in five years time.

 

[Knightmare]

McDonald with another 25 touches today against Box Hill and in the bests again.

Saves himself for finals it seems, with the TAC Cup last year and VFL this year.

I was also watching.

It's a quality that has in previous recruits been proven to translate so it will be fun to watch whether McDonald and continue to have finals success at the next level and continue to elevate his game for the big games.

 

[Knightmare]

Dude This is all just plain wrong. Let's end the light body thing right now. In terms weight, he is less light for less height than Lachie Whitfield. He is not light bodied, wiry would be a better term, or lean-framed. That lean frame is probably advantageous more than anthing.

Second, where do you even get the idea he struggles against the big bodies? Watching him in the TSL, the first thing, or second apart from his penetrating kicking style, is his tackling and pressure. The reason he isn't being named in Burnie's best is that they are almost exclusively playing him on the wing. IF he were given a role in the square, he'd be more consistently in their best. Secondly, I reckon he is carying an injury niggle, which is why he is being played on the wing. He gets rotated on the bench regulalry, probably only gets about 70% game time. Even so, he managed to be Burnie's best against Launceston in the first final two weeks ago. Had a quieter game yesterday, but his pressure was good.

He is the most skilled Tasmanian to come through for awhile. I am becoming more of a Kade fan, but I would not be surprised if Templeton is the best Tasmanian from this draft in five years time.

I don't share the same optimism of Templeton the on baller. He's not a high level contested ball winner. Doesn't have the body shape/size to do it at the next level and he didn't show dominant ability to win the contested ball at the u18 champs to be a factor through the guts.

I'd say the same about Whitfield. Whitfield is an outside player but a supremely high production outside player thanks to his elite endurance but then also has the footskills to be effective. He wouldn't be my no.1 overall selection of last year and I probably wouldn't pick him top 5 but he's in a different conversation to Templeton.

I don't have any information about any niggles he is carrying so I can only judge him on what I've watched but the improvement in his game has been limited since the u16s as a pretty similar player to who he was then as someone who probably hasn't developed these past 2-3 seasons as much as many of his peers which is my larger concern and suggests to me that perhaps he won't have as much improvement left in his game.

 

[Thurlow2Mackie]

I don't share the same optimism of Templeton the on baller. He's not a high level contested ball winner. Doesn't have the body shape/size to do it at the next level and he didn't show dominant ability to win the contested ball at the u18 champs to be a factor through the guts.

I'd say the same about Whitfield. Whitfield is an outside player but a supremely high production outside player thanks to his elite endurance but then also has the footskills to be effective. He wouldn't be my no.1 overall selection of last year and I probably wouldn't pick him top 5 but he's in a different conversation to Templeton.

I don't have any information about any niggles he is carrying so I can only judge him on what I've watched but the improvement in his game has been limited since the u16s as a pretty similar player to who he was then as someone who probably hasn't developed these past 2-3 seasons as much as many of his peers which is my larger concern and suggests to me that perhaps he won't have as much improvement left in his game.

First of all, going into the champs he was coming off a pretty serious injury and hadn't played a lot of football going into it. He then inured his ankle during the champs and was never fully fit. Even so, he averaged 23 disposals and five tackles at the champs. Which, by the way, is well up from his 13 disposal average from 2012... not sure where the "no improvement" idea is coming from. The defensive side of his game is one of his strengths. He also has elite endurance and footskills. Now, not saying he should be no.1 pick obviously, but I get the feeling all you have really seen of Eli is his weight from the TAC cup record. Have you watched any TSL? Where are you getting your info on him from? Surely if you were only going by the champs, you'd be talking him up with the performances he put in. During the champs, his pressure, ball winning ability, and work rate was enourmous. His best games came against the best teams. Just not entirely sure what you are basing your rating of Eli on, tbh.

 

[Punchy Demons]

KM,

What are your thoughts on Melb trading pick #2 to GWS in exchange for Taylor Adams & compo pick #9?

Then using #9 on a mature mid via trading or on a Crouch or Sheed, as I think we need real hardness around the footy & need a handful of clearance players to go with Nathan Jones & Jack Viney.

If we were to do this I think it's a lot more value than an Aish at #2 alone.

I'm then hopeful of securing more grunt with Zac Jones with a later pick

 

[verypoorboy]

Hey Knightmare, love your work mate.
After seeing Grundy touted as top 3, Colquhoun last year and even Atley a couple of years ago slip in the draft due to no fault of their own.
Just interested to see which guys you think will potentially be this years sliders or bargain picks?
Dayle Garlett is the obvious one that will likely slip lower than his worth position ability-wise but who else do you think could be a steal this year?