Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[fronkalicious]

I totally agree, Brisbane won't be giving up all of that!

Beams is worth it IMO.

 

[eaglespremiers]

I would do the Petracca trade if GWS are offering the right pieces.

If as an example Shiel and GWS' first pick can be had for pick 1 that could mean Shiel (who may be a better midfielder than Petracca anyway) and McCartin who could be a number one inside 50 target. I'd be pretty happy with that with St Kilda needing a quality young key forward who can be built around.

This would be a massive steal.
How would you rate Shiel v Petracca?
I would almost favour Shiel and that's without adding GWS's first pick.

 

[Knightmare]

So Brisbane trade Leuenberger, Pick 4 and Pick 24ish for Beams?

Alright..

Leuenberger is injury prone and worse than Stefan Martin based on what he did this year. Pick 4 likely becomes pick 5 given Melbourne likely get pick 3 as compensation for Frawley leaving. Brisbane are said not to be overly keen on their first round selection with the options available not appealing greatly, then in the second round if they don't need to use it to get Hammelmann, nothing is lost there either in reality.

Brisbane still would be able to get likely Beams with Hammelman, Dawson, Andrews and Clayton through the draft. I'd take that. No question.

In fact I would class Brisbane in that trade scenario as the winners given nothing major is given up and they add a number 1/2 midfielder in his prime to the team.

If you look through the value of those pick 5s in the past and if you look at how many misses there are in the 20s I would class it an excellent outcome for Brisbane. Particularly in a so-so draft.

This would be a massive steal.
How would you rate Shiel v Petracca?
I would almost favour Shiel and that's without adding GWS's first pick.

Shiel is the better midfielder. Petracca has the opportunity to become the more impactful player long term given his ability forward of centre. I'd be inclined to take the shot on Petracca out of the two but not by as much as I suspect it would be for most.

 

[Indie_]

How's Heeney tracking Knightmare?

 

[Knightmare]

How's Heeney tracking Knightmare?

Looks set to be THE bargain of the 2014 national draft. You've got a beauty.

*See page one for my Heeney bio.

 

[smashbox gill]

So Brisbane trade Leuenberger, Pick 4 and Pick 24ish for Beams?

Alright..

youd trade that for Dangerfield (reminiscent of Judd trade) IMO but not for Beams

 

[manny100]

I think the days of giving away the farm for gun players are numbered. Now that clubs can start banking unused CAP and using it in future years bottom clubs will be able to make big $$ offers to restricted FA's which will not be able to be matched. Clubs with CAP to burn will then target the 24/25 year olds. In response clubs will trade players like Beames before they reach FA. Ie, in future the magpies/or top club might jump at a pick 4 for a star rather than FA compensation the following year if he wished to leave which is linked to ladder position.
The banking of unused CAP is an equalisation measure.

 

[Knightmare]

youd trade that for Dangerfield (reminiscent of Judd trade) IMO but not for Beams

An injury prone ruckman who is not the number one option, a pick that Brisbane are shopping and a second round pick?

While the format of trade would be in the style of the Judd trade Leuenberger is hardly a young Josh Kennedy and the picks are not as high in a relatively weaker draft.

Brisbane would in the deal be the only club in the deal not giving up a best 1/2 piece.

I think the days of giving away the farm for gun players are numbered. Now that clubs can start banking unused CAP and using it in future years bottom clubs will be able to make big $$ offers to restricted FA's which will not be able to be matched. Clubs with CAP to burn will then target the 24/25 year olds. In response clubs will trade players like Beames before they reach FA. Ie, in future the magpies/or top club might jump at a pick 4 for a star rather than FA compensation the following year if he wished to leave which is linked to ladder position.
The banking of unused CAP is an equalisation measure.

This may be the case but there may also be more clubs who follow Adelaide's model, if indeed they do trade Dangerfield of moving guys they think are at risk of leaving before they become free agents.

Free agency is still a dynamic I expect even clubs are still learning on the fly.

 

[blueiris]

Think you might be getting confused with Brisbane's first round pick but if that three way trade with Danger and Beams happens it would likely be more along the lines of:

Adelaide get: Brisbane first round selection, Matthew Leuenberger, Brisbane second round selection, Collingwood second round selection.
Brisbane get: Dayne Beams
Collingwood get: Patrick Dangerfield

As a trade not so unlike what we saw with that Judd trade some years back as a template but with a third party involved in this case. As a trade it is an interesting way around Beams wanting to move back to QLD for family reasons, Adelaide getting substantially better compensation for Dangerfield than they would otherwise get and Brisbane getting their guy without losing any of their young core pieces.

Brisbane getting r*ped in that trade if Collingwood want Danger do it yourSelfs you lazy Basterds Beams isnt that good he's not even the best player at Collingwood

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

I Thought I'd have a go at a phantom top 10 - with the safe assumption that Melbourne will receive pick 3.

In doing so, it strikes me very quickly that GWS have good reason to want to push for that #1 pick. Assuming (as I do) they won't want another tall, this is an unideal talent pool for the Giants and their #4 selection. The way the Saints are talking, they are now more inclined to take the "best available" Petracca ahead of MCCartin or another, so forth pushing these talented talls down the draft a little. Melbourne, who might have taken Petracca and Wright, not wanting to take two talls, would then elevate Brayshaw (probably the 5th best talent) to that 3rd pick. So, in this scenario if GWS were to take the best available, they would be looking at a swath of talented talls (Wright, Lever, Durdin) that they don't really need. In my mind this would almost force them to take Pickett, a wonderful talent yes, but perhaps not the natural #4 and a bit of a wasted selection.

1. St Kilda Petracca
2. Melbourne McCartin
3. Melbourne Brayshaw
4. GWS Pickett
5. Brisbane Wright
6. Bulldogs Durdin
7. Carlton Lever
8. Gold Coast Laverde
9. Collingwood Moore
10. Adelaide Ahern

Love your work KM.

 

[Knightmare]

I Thought I'd have a go at a phantom top 10 - with the safe assumption that Melbourne will receive pick 3.

In doing so, it strikes me very quickly that GWS have good reason to want to push for that #1 pick. Assuming (as I do) they won't want another tall, this is an unideal talent pool for the Giants and their #4 selection. The way the Saints are talking, they are now more inclined to take the "best available" Petracca ahead of MCCartin or another, so forth pushing these talented talls down the draft a little. Melbourne, who might have taken Petracca and Wright, not wanting to take two talls, would then elevate Brayshaw (probably the 5th best talent) to that 3rd pick. So, in this scenario if GWS were to take the best available, they would be looking at a swath of talented talls (Wright, Lever, Durdin) that they don't really need. In my mind this would almost force them to take Pickett, a wonderful talent yes, but perhaps not the natural #4 and a bit of a wasted selection.

1. St Kilda Petracca
2. Melbourne McCartin
3. Melbourne Brayshaw
4. GWS Pickett
5. Brisbane Wright
6. Bulldogs Durdin
7. Carlton Lever
8. Gold Coast Laverde
9. Collingwood Moore
10. Adelaide Ahern

Love your work KM.

Lever may go higher, he may not. But he would make sense for Melbourne and GWS for that matter with Melbourne likely loosing Frawley and GWS likely loosing Frost and Jaksch.

It will be interesting to see what happens with GWS and whether they find a way to trade up. Given the potential for a few guys to request a trade back to Victoria it is possible if they offer their first round selection and one or two other previous first rounders at St Kilda. Hard to see St Kilda with their lack of a young franchise key forward not being open to taking the chance one a McCartin, Wright or Durdin.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Lever may go higher, he may not. But he would make sense for Melbourne and GWS for that matter with Melbourne likely loosing Frawley and GWS likely loosing Frost and Jaksch.

It will be interesting to see what happens with GWS and whether they find a way to trade up. Given the potential for a few guys to request a trade back to Victoria it is possible if they offer their first round selection and one or two other previous first rounders at St Kilda. Hard to see St Kilda with their lack of a young franchise key forward not being open to taking the chance one a McCartin, Wright or Durdin.

Exactly. It really does look like one of those rare deals to suit both parties equally.

 

[Membling]

Just watching the Allies v AA game and have been impressed by Pruess down back. Any info on him?

 

[Billy Puller]

Cockatoo.... Whoever picks him up has a superstar on their hands. **** me the kid can play.

 

[Knightmare]

Just watching the Allies v AA game and have been impressed by Pruess down back. Any info on him?

Big lad. 205cm, 102kg. Rugby convert. Invited to the national combine. He is a project player but there is some scope to develop. Can take a mark and seems to read it fairly well. He is a year older as a Jan 1995 birthday so keep that in mind. Part of the Gold Coast academy but I would assume they would if they pick him be more inclined to take him as a rookie rather than in the national draft given their deep, young ruck stocks.

 

[Membling]

Big lad. 205cm, 102kg. Rugby convert. Invited to the national combine. He is a project player but there is some scope to develop. Can take a mark and seems to read it fairly well. He is a year older as a Jan 1995 birthday so keep that in mind. Part of the Gold Coast academy but I would assume they would if they pick him be more inclined to take him as a rookie rather than in the national draft given their deep, young ruck stocks.

Yeah watched the Allied game and seemed more a natural back than ruck. Seem him somewhat similar to Keefe at Collingwood. Would love to take a put on him late on either ND or early rookie. Would make a good Full back who can chop out in ruck from what I've seen

 

[Knightmare]

Cockatoo.... Whoever picks him up has a superstar on their hands. **** me the kid can play.

Cockatoo was excellent. Has missed the season with injury so his form as a result has not been exposed - not featuring during the u18 champs. Loved his pace and agree on the back of that performance he should get drafted. He was the highlight for me in this game. Really good to have the guy back, terrific talent.

Some of the QLD and NSW bigs also helped their draft stocks - Coughlan and Howard then Jackson with his footskills. All helped enhance their draft stocks which was great to see.

 

[Eons]

Cockatoo was excellent. Has missed the season with injury so his form as a result has not been exposed - not featuring during the u18 champs. Loved his pace and agree on the back of that performance he should get drafted. He was the highlight for me in this game. Really good to have the guy back, terrific talent.

Some of the QLD and NSW bigs also helped their draft stocks - Coughlan and Howard then Jackson with his footskills. All helped enhance their draft stocks which was great to see.

How were the Brisbane academy boys KM? At work and didn't get to watch it..

 

[Tank Girl]

Hislop has some power and can win the footy so as a late/rookie pick he is a chance but there are others with more tricks.

I *might* be biased towards the Burnie boys, but I thought he and Weller were the best players today. They both used the ball so well. Hislop has been interviewed by all 18 clubs. Are you likely to re-evaluate where you have him going before the ND?

 

[Knightmare]

How were the Brisbane academy boys KM? At work and didn't get to watch it..

Hammelmann was relatively quiet but still on the lead at times showed some signed. Only the one goal and some marks up high on the wings.

Dawson also got relatively involved while not dominant still had a solid showing. Kicked a goal.

H.Andrews looked good down back and particularly early was involved and looked good. Early on took a nice mark at the highest point which was the highlight and in the back half his tap work looked good - but that is to be expected v 17 year olds.

-- none of the three elevated their draft stocks without really dropping away either.. just showing enough --

Nick Jackson off a back flank really impressed me with his precision footskills. Looked draftable and I felt he elevated his stocks - and liked him through the u18 champs also. As a rookie I'd be inclined to take him in Brisbane's situation.

Uebergang up forward didn't impress. No impact. So many talls dominated for the All Stars but Uebergang of the lot for me was the least impressive. Disappointed he couldn't take advantage of a bunch of some smaller 17 year olds.

I *might* be biased towards the Burnie boys, but I thought he and Weller were the best players today. They both used the ball so well. Hislop has been interviewed by all 18 clubs. Are you likely to re-evaluate where you have him going before the ND?

Hislop was strong through the midfield. He is better than Jones who also is good through the midfield but I tend to see them more as good state leaguers more than AFL standard midfielders. Both are late/rookie chances though so he could well make it onto an AFL list.

Weller good also and what impressed me was his use of pace in game which he hasn't done as much of in the past as he perhaps could. His play reminded me of Tim Broomhead as a skilled but quick guy. Not as strong a contested ball winner. But he's a first round selection and has a real chance to have a strong AFL career with continued improvement.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Knighta, just interested mate, where would you have rated Shiel if he were in his draft compared to Tyson, Cogs, Patton, Wingard, Treloar etc? And without using the benefit of hindsight? Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

Knighta, just interested mate, where would you have rated Shiel if he were in his draft compared to Tyson, Cogs, Patton, Wingard, Treloar etc? And without using the benefit of hindsight? Cheers.

Shiel was always considered in that top few and generally seen as being ahead of Coniglio/Tyson and possibly even Treloar at the time.

If 2011 was an open draft it may have looked something like
1. Patton
2. Shiel
3. Treloar
4. Cameron
5. Coniglio

Different story in hindsight as we would all admit to.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Shiel was always considered in that top few and generally seen as being ahead of Coniglio/Tyson and possibly even Treloar at the time.

If 2011 was an open draft it may have looked something like
1. Patton
2. Shiel
3. Treloar
4. Cameron
5. Coniglio

Different story in hindsight as we would all admit to.

If Jezza hadn't've been taken by GWS, would his name have been on clubs' radar's?

Did you know who he was in 2009 and 2010?

 

[dewah07]

Just a message KM, please don't hype up balic next year, saints need him to slide to their 2nd

 

[aussierulesrules]

If Jezza hadn't've been taken by GWS, would his name have been on clubs' radar's?

Did you know who he was in 2009 and 2010?

Given how good he was in GWS's first year, I think it's pretty safe to say he would have kicked a rather significant amount of ass had still been in the juniors the year before, rather than being at GWS for that season (that would have otherwise been his draft year) and that as a result he would have been right in the mix for pick 1, given his talent and physical attributes. If they saw enough in him to pick him as one of their initial 12, I'm guessing he was well and truly on club's radars at 17yo.