Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[monty1104]

cause/effect...maybe their bad drafting history isn't through picking the wrong players but developing them poorly?

Yeah that's one we will never know the answer to.

 

[womble54]

Is it correct that unless a Club bids before Brisbanes 1st Pick, then Brisbane sit down at the F/S and Academy meeting and can auto select Hammelman, Dawson, Andrews and Ubergang with their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Picks.

Is that the scenario?

I'm liking the read of this Harris Andrews but am i right in concluding that the only way another team can get one of the above 4, is to bid them before Brisbane's 1st Pick? (which obviously won't happen)

Clubs can bid at any point so e.g for the dogs, Norf bid on Hunter with a mid 30's pick which we then countered with our next available which was around 45 or 6 from memory. If no clubs bid at all Brissie could choose to use picks 76, 97 and 114 if they wanted or even rookie pick their academy players. That's my understanding anyway. Won't happen. Hamelmann is too good a prospect but still a good get in the 2nd round. If Brissie get him with their third rounder they win the draft no matter what else happens (caveat - the tankers get 2,3 and 4 which I don't see happening but may happen out of pity..)

 

[Demon 16]

I'd be shocked if we used more than 1 pick at the top - even if we have 3 of them!

We'll be looking to trade for established players.

 

[Knightmare]

Who are the elite kicks of this draft; in terms of penetration, ball use, disposal efficiency (and anything else).

Wigg (efficient more than damaging)
Viojo-Rainbow (damaging - penetration + vision)
Duggan (damaging - penetration + vision)
L.Webb (damaging - penetration + vision)
Weller (classy)
McDonagh (damaging - penetration)
Brayshaw (dual sided)
Heeney (damaging)
Petracca (damaging)

Knightmare, so given that Collingwood has nose dived down the afl ladder in spectacular fashion and their first round pick is no longer likely to be around pick 12-14 but instead either pick or 7 or 8 now, can you see another club at pick 1-6 bidding on Moore and forcing Collingwood to use its first round pick?

Pies still almost certainly need to use the first round pick on Moore. Even moving higher up the draft won't help. Western Bulldogs and Carlton presumably both would take Moore ahead of the other options to be available.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM
Just want your thoughts on Cameron Giles from Carlton. Do you think he will become a good AFL footballer ? Do you think he will become a very good rebounding defender ?

Still Giles' first season and has missed the second half of the season so it's too early to determine whether he'll make it or not. He's got a chance to make it as a rebounding key defender but I can't help but favour some of the options in this draft class. Durdin, Lever, Marchbank and Goddard all are better talents and if you can get them they'd all be upgrades. It's up to Carlton to determine whether that's the top need.

If I'm Carlton I'd be leaning towards Reece McKenzie who while still not spoken about as a top 10 pick is a dominant power forward but Durdin also would be a strong pick whether he's developed into a key defender or key forward.

 

[blueiris]

Wigg (efficient more than damaging)
Viojo-Rainbow (damaging - penetration + vision)
Duggan (damaging - penetration + vision)
L.Webb (damaging - penetration + vision)
Weller (classy)
McDonagh (damaging - penetration)
Brayshaw (dual sided)
Heeney (damaging)
Petracca (damaging)



Pies still almost certainly need to use the first round pick on Moore. Even moving higher up the draft won't help. Western Bulldogs and Carlton presumably both would take Moore ahead of the other options to be available.

If Melbourne do get picks 2, 3 and 4 say they take Petracca Wright and Brayshaw who do you think Brisbane take?

 

[eth-dog]

Who are the fastest players in the draft Knighter?

 

[MightyPies1]

If Melbourne do get picks 2, 3 and 4 say they take Petracca Wright and Brayshaw who do you think Brisbane take?

How in the hell would Melbourne get picks 2,3 and 4?

 

[eth-dog]

How in the hell would Melbourne get picks 2,3 and 4?

2nd last, Frawley compo, PP for 9 wins in 3 years

 

[blueiris]

How in the hell would Melbourne get picks 2,3 and 4?

They were saying on the Couch tonight
2 . finishing 2nd last
3 . Frawley compo pick
4. PP

 

[MightyPies1]

2nd last, Frawley compo, PP for 9 wins in 3 years

That would be amazing if that happened and it would make Melbourne seem like an expansion team.

 

[eth-dog]

That would be amazing if that happened and it would make Melbourne seem like an expansion team.

They get Petracca, Wright and Brayshaw with those picks, GWS take Durdin and Brisbane take Lever IMO

 

[blueiris]

They get Petracca, Wright and Brayshaw with those picks, GWS take Durdin and Brisbane take Lever IMO

Wasn't Lever injured this year. And a very interesting name after last year's go home 5

 

[Knightmare]

Sadly the Dees look to have pick 2 locked in - GWS could even pinch another win!! Can't get much worse considering we had a fairly low injury rate this season although arguably our best player Clark retired. So far 9 wins in 3 years (way exceeding the 2006 - 2012 PP rules)!!!! If Frawley goes its 2 and 3. No doubt the Dees will lobby for a PP so its possibly picks 2,3 and 4. The rights and wrongs of the PP are probably best argued elsewhere but while it exists its a possibility. At this stage it seems Petracca, Brayshaw, Wright and Stretch would be a great draft!!!! If decisions on PP and FA are made independently its possible but discussion will likely be more 'fan' heated than the supplements issue which the AFL will see as a welcome distraction!!!!

I'd recommend Melbourne instead of getting given a priority pick instead get given additional salary cap space to use to add established players from other team lists over the next few seasons. It's going to help Melbourne more than any picks. That's for sure.

Is it correct that unless a Club bids before Brisbanes 1st Pick, then Brisbane sit down at the F/S and Academy meeting and can auto select Hammelman, Dawson, Andrews and Ubergang with their 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th Picks.

Is that the scenario?

I'm liking the read of this Harris Andrews but am i right in concluding that the only way another team can get one of the above 4, is to bid them before Brisbane's 1st Pick? (which obviously won't happen)

Pretty much.

Brisbane have more guys to pick than picks to pick them with just about with their academy and father son options this year.

Those they don't take can be taken as a rookie if they get through the national draft so you might even find like Sydney and Lloyd Perris that Brisbane can also get some guys through the rookie draft.

I'd be shocked if we used more than 1 pick at the top - even if we have 3 of them!

We'll be looking to trade for established players.

With Paul Roos as coach he'll go for established players. He likes guys who can contribute well and I see that continuing this year.

 

[Tank Girl]

Knightmare, do you know anything about Jake Sushames from North Launceston? Draft age next year, he has made AIS two years in a row. Don't know what kind of player he is or why he wasn't playing for Tassie this year

 

[Knightmare]

If Melbourne do get picks 2, 3 and 4 say they take Petracca Wright and Brayshaw who do you think Brisbane take?

I'm not seeing it happening but Durdin in that case is the most likely and best talent available.

Who are the fastest players in the draft Knighter?

Pickett
Castagna
Garlett
Butler
Stretch
Lamb
C.Smith

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare, do you know anything about Jake Sushames from North Launceston? Draft age next year, he has made AIS two years in a row. Don't know what kind of player he is or why he wasn't playing for Tassie this year

Highest rated Tassie prospect next year and is considered a first round chance. Very light bodied but can play. As far as I'm aware I haven't seen any of his games but will be watching next year.

 

[blueiris]

I'm not seeing it happening but Durdin in that case

You don't see GWS drafting Durdin?

 

[Knightmare]

You don't see GWS drafting Durdin?

Possible. Wright and Brayshaw will be the others in the mix for that selection and as better performed players may edge Durdin out.

All in their varied ways can fill needs for GWS. They could do with a better young ruckman (Wright) and he's got the ability up forward to go with it which even GWS can use with no guarantee all of Cameron/Patton/Boyd stay long term. They lack a tall, big bodied midfielder so Brayshaw is that most logical fit and someone GWS could really use with his footskills and underrated versatility. Durdin also possible and GWS would surely also look at a key defence upgrade but at the same time they've still got similar with Jaksch so their evaluation of Jaksch and his long term future at the club may come into the evaluation.
Still up in the air, but I'd say Brayshaw is that best fit and most logical choice as that piece least like anything they currently have.

 

[Snake Charmer]

What are Shannon Taylor's chances of getting drafted Knight? I have a feeling Essendon could be in to him. In need of a small classy forward and we do that a thing going with Frankston

 

[Sin City]

Knightmare, do you know anything about Jake Sushames from North Launceston? Draft age next year, he has made AIS two years in a row. Don't know what kind of player he is or why he wasn't playing for Tassie this year

Knee injuries. Hopefully he's back in a big way next year.

 

[Bring back Bas]

Where is Cameron Conlon at and will he get drafted this year? Are there any others who missed out on last years draft to watch out for this year?

 

[Knightmare]

What are Shannon Taylor's chances of getting drafted Knight? I have a feeling Essendon could be in to him. In need of a small classy forward and we do that a thing going with Frankston

Has been invited to the state screenings so there is some interest. I'm personally really surprised by this. Showed promise as a junior but VFL form has been ordinary. Most likely I imagine he'll be passed up.

Essendon could do better. Ed Langdon as a rookie could be an example of a better selection as a small classy forward.

Where is Cameron Conlon at and will he get drafted this year? Are there any others who missed out on last years draft to watch out for this year?

No chance with Conlon I wouldn't have thought.

Jack Steele (GWS - Academy), Josh Glenn (didn't enter draft), Erin Wasley-Black, Taylor Grace, Daniel Howe, Jake Owen, Josh McGuiness, Francis Watson, Nathan Drummond, Darcy Cameron, Nick Jackson and Brandon Abbott are the names of some who have missed out last year and are a chance to get drafted this year.

 

[eth-dog]

Definitely interested in Darcy Cameron as a rookie.

 

[Periphery]

Knightmare, I love your work and those detailed profiles are awesome but I have a formatting suggestion: Have you tried putting the profiles in individual quote inserts? That way they will automatically and individually compress down and be easier to scroll through while still being be easily identifiable. People will be able to find the players they are after a bit faster and just be able to pop open the ones they want to read.

This is what a couple together look like:

1. Peter Wright (VIC – KPF/Ruck)
Height: 203cm, Weight: 102kg, DOB: 08/09/1996
Recruited from: Calder Cannons
Draft range: 1-5
Best position/role: Full forward playing relief ruck minutes.
Strengths:
Key forward talent – Wright has extreme height at 203cm and already has a strong frame at 102kg which is a major point of difference by position but unlike most other 200cm+ types the key with Wright is he’s one of the rare few with front half talent and the ability to take over games with his influence.
Strength – Wright has excellent size for his age at 102kg and uses it well. He can dominate you at the centre bounces with his size and strength advantage and use his strength in the front half to outmark his opponents 1v1.
Athleticism/movement – Has the acceleration to create separation on the lead, very good mobility for his size, has the ability to go on repeat leads and has some lift on his jump.
Marking ability –Strong mark on the lead and is hard to stop given his height, size, strong hands and ability to create separation on the lead. He’s also a strong contested mark capable of taking pack marks, leaping and taking a mark and taking 1v1 marks. His marks are clean one grab marks and he has the ability to take it out in front and at the highest point.
Footskills – Has range out to 60m and is a reliable set shot goalkicker. Damaging field kick over a variety of distances. At times Wright has demonstrates good vision and is capable of finding some damaging targets around the ground. He also has shown at times that he has the ability to execute his kicks and still hit his targets while getting tackled.
Tap ruck work – Effective tap ruckman who can hit it down to the advantage of his midfielders frequently both around the ground and at centre bounces. He’s got the size and strength to physically impose himself at centre bounces and ruck contests around the ground.
Weaknesses:
In and out of games –He can look unstoppable for periods of games and have a dominant quarter where he’s clearly best on ground but also has his quiet periods in games where he’s not involved enough or imposing his influence on the game.
Endurance - Doesn’t cover the ground as well as you’d like and needs to put in the work to get his endurance up to the level it needs to get to.
Back – Has had back issues in the past. Is it growth related? Will it be something he’ll have to manage in the future? My assumption is its growth related and improved core strength and flexibility will help but it’s something that medical exams should tell us more about.
What I expect will improve:
In the AFL system with work his endurance can improve and with that I anticipate not only his endurance to improve but also his ability to get to more contests, his ability to influence games more frequently and influence games better over four quarters.
Who he can become?
I see Wright developing into a more dominant Kurt Tippett as that similar style tall, strong contested marking forward but with significantly better ability to push higher up the ground and perform through the ruck in those relief ruck minutes.
Through the ruck Wright looks like a less dominant Sam Jacobs. His tap work is similarly good and his skills also are good but I don’t see him finding as much of it around the ground and I also query if thrown into the ruck too early how his body will hold up.
When will he be ready to play?
The first couple of seasons we’ll see glimpses but it will be season three that I anticipate he’ll start putting some strong performances together and season four when he establishes himself as a go to forward at AFL level.
How to best utilise him?
With Wright I would recommend in those first four seasons for Wright to be only played as a key forward. Historically we see those who are thrown into the ruck at AFL level from season one break down with injury and have shortened careers. It’s a trend we have seen consistently with those ruckman who have been selected early draft over the years with Naitanui, Kreuzer and Leuenberger all having their issues dealing with injury most years and Josh Fraser also towards the end declining before the age of 30 after carrying the Collingwood ruck division in his early seasons. With key forwards and also those ruckmen who play as key forwards initially in their careers we see no such trend relating to injury or durability concerns and instead often a fast-track of their development. Paul Salmon and Simon Madden are two famous examples of ruckmen who started their careers forward and experienced great success and long careers in doing so. So for this reason regardless of the vision with Wright whether that be to develop him into a key forward or ruckman it is essential to his long term success and essential to maximising his talents that he starts his career as a key forward.
Interpretation of his numbers:
Well performed both as a key forward and ruckman in the TAC Cup and U18 Championships. Contested and uncontested marking numbers strong. Scoreboard impact strong. Hitout numbers and hitout to advantage numbers strong. Statistically Wright is the second best performed key forward behind McCartin and best performed ruckman in this draft class.

2. Patrick McCartin (VIC - KPF)
Height: 193cm, Weight: 95kg, DOB: 19/04/1996
Recruited from: Geelong Falcons
Draft range: 1-3
Best position/role: Full forward.
Strengths:
Marking ability – McCartin has rare marking ability on the lead. His trademark mark is his rare ability to take the mark down low over his toes on the lead with cleanness like you’ve never seen. He has some pace allowing him to create separation and he’s got clean heads both overhead taking his marks out in front. McCartin is also an excellent 1v1 mark and has the strength, excellent bodywork and superior ability to read the drop of the ball and protect the drop zone which allows him to take advantage of his opponent in the 1v1 contests. He can take you into the goal square and take advantage of you there with his 1v1 ability. He’s also a very capable pack mark and if he doesn’t take it he’ll bring it to ground.
Ability below the knees – McCartin has rare ability below the knees. He takes his trademark mark on the lead at his toes. He also has rare ability as a key forward to pick up the ground balls and bouncing balls clearly with consistency without fumbling making him a real threat not only as a marking target but equally so with his ground level game. After picking up the ground ball McCartin can get it onto his boot quickly or sometimes turn you around and go into an open goal or other times create enough time and space for himself to execute a shot at goal or a pass off to someone else.
Power and strength- On the lead McCartin has a real power to him. When McCartin leads he goes on really explosive leads and uses his pace effectively to create separation and also really times his leads well, he leads well finding the best spaces to lead to often electing to lead down the middle when the opportunity is there really reads the play well up the field and anticipates what is going to happen perfectly to then determine his leads. He’s also got a real strength and presence to him in the marking contest to take advantage of his direct opponent. He has the strength through the hips and core to stand up strongly and execute a handball to a target while tackled.
Field kicking and vision – McCartin is a very good field kick and has shown that he can at times lace out hit leading targets in the forward 50. He displays rare vision and a real unselfishness in the front half for a key forward often looking for players in better position and he spots targets you almost never see key forwards spotting.
Proven performer – Best performed key forward in this draft based on scoreboard impact in 2013/2014 between his play in the TAC Cup and u18 championships.
Weaknesses:
Diabetes – McCartin has diabetes which complicates the evaluation slightly and it’s difficult to evaluate exactly to what extent at the next level he’ll be able to deal with it. It’s an unknown if it will limit him or to what extent he’ll be limited whether that be with his training or ability to become better aerobically or whatever it may be. Because he has diabetes it has meant he’s needed to approach his footy and diet from a young age more professionally than everyone else which has created the right habits earlier on which is a positive but his diabetes is something that will have to constantly be managed throughout his playing career.
Excess weight – McCartin while he’s strongly built and very quick he visibly seems to be carrying more weight than you’d like of an elite draft prospect. From everything I hear he’s professional and approaches the game with a great attention to detail with his diet and training so it will be interesting to see whether he can decrease his skinfolds and how he goes about maintaining a healthy playing weight. Whether that has any link to his diabetes or management of it I can’t help but suspect it does and while weight loss with work is very achievable in the AFL system generally for almost all draft prospects I do have concerns as whether this is something McCartin can achieve with his skin folds to remain healthy possibly needing to remain relatively high.
*Diabetes is not an area I have any level of expertise in so I’d back in the evaluation of the club doctors.
Set shot goalkicking – McCartin’s conversion from set shots is below average. He is prone to shanking some of his set shots attempts and can lose confidence in his set shot goalkicking. It seems to be a really mental thing for him but something given his excellent field kicking I feel can improve to a strong standard. McCartin’s tendency when he starts to lose confidence in his set shot goalkicking is he often will either elect to find a target in better position or will play on or attempt a snap shot at goal, and while I have no issue with this tendency my hope would be that he can get his set shot goalkicking up to a standard where he doesn’t experience that same waver in confidence.
What I expect will improve:
In the most part I expect natural progression in his areas of strength and continued upward growth but the deficiency I feel McCartin can address is his set shot goalkicking and given his generally very good footskills his set shot goalkicking with further work can get up to a strong level.
If McCartin can improve his endurance and reduce his skinfolds I also wouldn’t rule out given his elite ground level ability, good overall skillset, size, strength and ability to stand up while tackled to become capable of pinch-hitting through the midfield as he does have that right mix of traits to spend periods on the ball.
Who he can become?
McCartin projects to become a similar if slightly lower quality Jarryd Roughead. He’s got similar ability as a deep forward with his ground level game and marking ability and scoreboard impact but probably unless he can improve his endurance and skinfolds be as effective up the field.
When will he be ready to play?
McCartin may be ready to play some games from season one but expect him to start to get regular games from season two and start to really establish himself as a go to guy in either season three.
How to best utilise him?
McCartin is best used out of the goal square or as the go to target in the front half.
Interpretation of his numbers:
Best performed and most dominant key forward in this draft class. Scoreboard impact and marking numbers, both uncontested and contested strong.

It doesn't appear to stuff up any of the formatting but was just a thought I had while reading a couple of the profiles. Keep up the good work!