Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Taberner will only ever be a second forward as soon as he gets the number 1 defender he will have no influence.
He's just not your key forward more your second or floating third tall.

Apeness will never make it watched him in the wafl and he struggles.

I actually like Goddard, once hes in a afl program he will shine, mainly has a key back.

I have the same view on each player.

Goddard as a forward can be a component or play forward if required but I really like what I've seen of him in the back half and feel he can be a very good key defender for someone.

 

[Panthera]

Do you think Brisbane would look at Brayshaw at pick 4 when we're a chance of getting Ryder

Think we need to consider we're more than likely going to have pick #5 once Frawley compo is handed to Dees

 

[Chris25]

Care to elaborate?

McKenzie is Apeness. Just with less versatility. You don't spend two first rounders in consecutive years on the same player.

Plus, top 20 would be too early. I think I've been McKenzie's longest fan this year, I had him second round back when you didn't think he'd be drafted. But, I wouldn't be spending a first rounder on him. I'd be happy to let another club go too early, and take Jesse Watchman as a rookie.

We have far bigger needs than a project tall like McKenzie.

 

[Knightmare]

McKenzie is Apeness. Just with less versatility. You don't spend two first rounders in consecutive years on the same player.

Plus, top 20 would be too early. I think I've been McKenzie's longest fan this year, I had him second round back when you didn't think he'd be drafted. But, I wouldn't be spending a first rounder on him. I'd be happy to let another club go too early, and take Jesse Watchman as a rookie.

We have far bigger needs than a project tall like McKenzie.

I see McKenzie as a guy who has produced and Apeness as a guy who hasn't.

Apeness based on his draft year only had the one 5 goal game and x2 3 goal games. One 9 mark game, two 8 mark games.

McKenzie has had games with 10, 7 and 6 goals. As well as two games with 13 marks and one game with 12 marks.

Longest fan doesn't mean a thing. No one picks a guy a year early. Being a fan of someone isn't of relevance to the draft process. McKenzie didn't put a truly meaningful performance forward before July when he became a permanent key forward. What matters is the draft day evaluation and do you take him or do you pass.

For me McKenzie v Apeness is apples and oranges. McKenzie any day. He's the more dominant forward and of the two the one with the key forward talent and the go to key forward talent.

 

[imabowss]

I see McKenzie as a guy who has produced and Apeness as a guy who hasn't.

Apeness based on his draft year only had the one 5 goal game and x2 3 goal games. One 9 mark game, two 8 mark games.

McKenzie has had games with 10, 7 and 6 goals. As well as two games with 13 marks and one game with 12 marks.

Longest fan doesn't mean a thing. No one picks a guy a year early. Being a fan of someone isn't of relevance to the draft process. McKenzie didn't put a truly meaningful performance forward before July when he became a permanent key forward. What matters is the draft day evaluation and do you take him or do you pass.

For me McKenzie v Apeness is apples and oranges. McKenzie any day. He's the more dominant forward and of the two the one with the key forward talent and the go to key forward talent.

I'm confused why is Mckenzie rated so highly after only one champs game which he didn't do much at all? Drawing a long bow putting him in the top 6 talent wise.

 

[james_harrisss]

I see McKenzie as a guy who has produced and Apeness as a guy who hasn't.

Apeness based on his draft year only had the one 5 goal game and x2 3 goal games. One 9 mark game, two 8 mark games.

McKenzie has had games with 10, 7 and 6 goals. As well as two games with 13 marks and one game with 12 marks.

Longest fan doesn't mean a thing. No one picks a guy a year early. Being a fan of someone isn't of relevance to the draft process. McKenzie didn't put a truly meaningful performance forward before July when he became a permanent key forward. What matters is the draft day evaluation and do you take him or do you pass.

For me McKenzie v Apeness is apples and oranges. McKenzie any day. He's the more dominant forward and of the two the one with the key forward talent and the go to key forward talent.

apeness was a 1st round selection, McKenzie isn't on the same level

 

[Knightmare]

I'm confused why is Mckenzie rated so highly after only one champs game which he didn't do much at all? Drawing a long bow putting him in the top 6 talent wise.

This season other than the small number of games McCartin has played McKenzie is that next best performed key forward and he has done it on a team that missed the finals.

McKenzie is a good height, excellent size and dominant marking presence and someone who can provide strong scoreboard impact. Additionally of importance in evaluating his talent is the dominant performances he has on the board both at school level and in the TAC Cup. The guy kicked 16 goals in school footy. In a TAC Cup game he had 10 goals and 256 champion data rating points in one of his games.

Basing an evaluation of McKenzie off one u18 champs game won't tell you a whole lot, he neither got embarrassed nor dominated. The stats that are relevant with McKenzie are his stats from July onward when he played as a go to forward.

I'm not in the least bit fussed where others rate McKenzie. I've got him at 6 and others can make up their own minds in their evaluation. Doesn't mean he goes that high, he won't got that high but I like what I've seen.

 

[Chris25]

I'd say Apeness has shown enough to suggest picking McKenzie would be a waste of a first round selection. Particularly as he isn't the second coming as a full forward, he'll likely fall somewhere between Tom Campbell and Levi Casboult.

Whether you rate him #1 or #101, he just doesn't fill that big of a hole for Fremantle. And the original question was in regards to a good needs based selection in the first round.

 

[Knightmare]

I'd say Apeness has shown enough to suggest picking McKenzie would be a waste of a first round selection. Particularly as he isn't the second coming as a full forward, he'll likely fall somewhere between Tom Campbell and Levi Casboult.

Whether you rate him #1 or #101, he just doesn't fill that big of a hole for Fremantle. And the original question was in regards to a good needs based selection in the first round.

Fremantle have no more significant need than the next go to key forward. I can't say I agree Apeness is the answer. Apeness may become suitable depth. A go to guy? Not for me. That would be Reece McKenzie in this draft for me. Much more dominant talent.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

This season other than the small number of games McCartin has played McKenzie is that next best performed key forward and he has done it on a team that missed the finals.

McKenzie is a good height, excellent size and dominant marking presence and someone who can provide strong scoreboard impact. Additionally of importance in evaluating his talent is the dominant performances he has on the board both at school level and in the TAC Cup. The guy kicked 16 goals in school footy. In a TAC Cup game he had 10 goals and 256 champion data rating points in one of his games.

Basing an evaluation of McKenzie off one u18 champs game won't tell you a whole lot, he neither got embarrassed nor dominated. The stats that are relevant with McKenzie are his stats from July onward when he played as a go to forward.

I'm not in the least bit fussed where others rate McKenzie. I've got him at 6 and others can make up their own minds in their evaluation. Doesn't mean he goes that high, he won't got that high but I like what I've seen.

Do you rate him better than Wright as a forward?

 

[Knightmare]

Do you rate him better than Wright as a forward?

I favour Wright as a forward as my power rankings suggest but Wright has also played some ruck minutes so his scoreboard impact hasn't been as high as it might otherwise have been. I would also have liked to have seen Wright used as the deep forward more but with Jayden Foster who has led the TAC Cup in goalkicking as an overager that also hasn't happened.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

I favour Wright as a forward as my power rankings suggest but Wright has also played some ruck minutes so his scoreboard impact hasn't been as high as it might otherwise have been. I would also have liked to have seen Wright used as the deep forward more but with Jayden Foster who has led the TAC Cup in goalkicking as an overager that also hasn't happened.

Cheers.

Who do you see as a better fit for the Dogs' forward line issues? Wright or McKenzie? Are they similar? Both good overhead and can take a strong contested grab

 

[george2]

I see McKenzie as a guy who has produced and Apeness as a guy who hasn't.

Apeness based on his draft year only had the one 5 goal game and x2 3 goal games. One 9 mark game, two 8 mark games.

McKenzie has had games with 10, 7 and 6 goals. As well as two games with 13 marks and one game with 12 marks.

Longest fan doesn't mean a thing. No one picks a guy a year early. Being a fan of someone isn't of relevance to the draft process. McKenzie didn't put a truly meaningful performance forward before July when he became a permanent key forward. What matters is the draft day evaluation and do you take him or do you pass.

For me McKenzie v Apeness is apples and oranges. McKenzie any day. He's the more dominant forward and of the two the one with the key forward talent and the go to key forward talent.

I probably agree with you Knightmare to a certain extent in that we probably do need another young KPF as we probably cant put all our eggs in one basket with Apeness but also agree with Chris in that there are bigger pressing issues for us.
As for Apeness not being the "go to guy" he showed on a few occasions this year in the WAFL that he could well develop in to that. This year he took 10 marks, 9 marks on two occasions, 8 marks, 7 marks on two occasion etc. He was basically playing as the forward focal point and the "go to man" for Peel Thunder all year as Gumbleton was injured the majority and Keplar Bradley was played down back so they are pretty damn good numbers for a first year player playing against grown men. He probably didn't hit the scoreboard as often as we would have liked but the fact that he was getting to contests and taking a lot of contested marks is a massive positive for the club going forward.
Therefore think as Chris stated we probably have more pressing issues like a replacement for McPharlin so I think that Goddard would be a better fit this year if available but yes Knightmare I think that in the next year or two we should probably invest in another KPF with an early pick.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers.

Who do you see as a better fit for the Dogs' forward line issues? Wright or McKenzie? Are they similar? Both good overhead and can take a strong contested grab

Wright is the pick for me first round. McKenzie second round if there.

Wright has a few more tricks and is the better kick and better up the field.

If the Dogs want McKenzie a late first round pick probably is enough to get him.

 

[Chris25]

Fremantle have no more significant need than the next go to key forward.

I like to think I have a decent understanding of Fremantle's needs, and I'd take 5 key defenders before I would a good but not great project forward.

 

[Oddhawk]

KM,

Apologies if you gone over this before.

Do you think the Hawks will have to use a higher round pick than you've got him down for.

Has he played well enough this year to catch the eye of other teams that may need a key fwd/pt ruck?

 

[Knightmare]

I like to think I have a decent understanding of Fremantle's needs, and I'd take 5 key defenders before I would a good but not great project forward.

I would agree with you if you were to say Goddard at Fremantle's first round pick would be a strong choice. I mentioned him as a strong selection before you chimed in giving your take.

In saying that you don't need a first round pick to get a key defender as you generally do with key forwards. Ask Collingwood. We have two rookie key defenders in Frost and Keeffe.

As an example this year of someone who outside the first round looks like a strong selection as a key defender take a look at Oscar McDonald who you don't even mention in your draft thread. I'd be happy to pick from the second round. Excellent key defender who can beat his guy 1v1 but then also take his share of intercept marks. Looks terrific and has the scope to hold down a key defence post long term. He's not that far behind Marchbank or Goddard and should be in that same conversation as someone who for me is in that top group of key defenders this year.

Michael Harley is another who could be had as a rookie, can play immediately and while not a rebounder can certainly beat his direct opponent.

KM,

Apologies if you gone over this before.

Do you think the Hawks will have to use a higher round pick than you've got him down for.

Has he played well enough this year to catch the eye of other teams that may need a key fwd/pt ruck?

In your post it is unclear who you are talking about. Are you talking about Reece McKenzie? If so while it's not certain he is available at Hawthorn's pick he is a fair chance to be available regardless of where the Hawks are picking.

 

[Skippos]

As an example this year of someone who outside the first round looks like a strong selection as a key defender take a look at Oscar McDonald who you don't even mention in your draft thread. I'd be happy to pick from the second round. Excellent key defender who can beat his guy 1v1 but then also take his share of intercept marks. Looks terrific and has the scope to hold down a key defence post long term. He's not that far behind Marchbank or Goddard and should be in that same conversation as someone who for me is in that top group of key defenders this year.

Just on this. A conversation on the Crows board earlier today got me asking myself just why McDonald isn't considered as a higher level talent than he already is, something you've covered here. Chris25 too might have an opinion here. To me everything indicates he'll likely be a 100+ game reasonable standard KPD, potentially a 200 game top level KPD. Just seems to have it all going for him. So my question to (both of) you is why wasn't he in the conversation as a top 20-25 player a few weeks ago (merely a 40-70 type), and even then, why isn't he in the same conversation as a Goddard type from a KPD point of view. Just curious as I've not seen him nearly as much as you.

 

[Knightmare]

Just on this. A conversation on the Crows board earlier today got me asking myself just why McDonald isn't considered as a higher level talent than he already is, something you've covered here. Chris25 too might have an opinion here. To me everything indicates he'll likely be a 100+ game reasonable standard KPD, potentially a 200 game top level KPD. Just seems to have it all going for him. So my question to (both of) you is why wasn't he in the conversation as a top 20-25 player a few weeks ago (merely a 40-70 type), and even then, why isn't he in the same conversation as a Goddard type from a KPD point of view. Just curious as I've not seen him nearly as much as you.

I'm not putting a cap on Oscar. He is an AFL quality key defender in my view who definitely has the scope to be a regular for a team and a strong contributor. Had a sensational performance finals week 1 v Wright keeping him to zero goals and just the 6 marks and 8 disposals all up. And backs up his strong performances week after week.

My answer is Oscar should be in the 20-25 conversation and I genuinely do see him in the same conversation with Goddard and Marchbank with the latter a similar player. He just isn't a name player and hasn't played u18 champs which is why those outside Victoria won't be as familiar and why he may not be as high on all draft boards but for regular TAC Cup watchers his ability is obvious.

Goddard relatively is a slightly more gifted rebounder than McDonald and a touch better athletically but they're both good stoppers who can beat and limit the impact of their guys and take some intercept marks.

 

[Oddhawk]

I would agree with you if you were to say Goddard at Fremantle's first round pick would be a strong choice. I mentioned him as a strong selection before you chimed in giving your take.

In saying that you don't need a first round pick to get a key defender as you generally do with key forwards. Ask Collingwood. We have two rookie key defenders in Frost and Keeffe.

As an example this year of someone who outside the first round looks like a strong selection as a key defender take a look at Oscar McDonald who you don't even mention in your draft thread. I'd be happy to pick from the second round. Excellent key defender who can beat his guy 1v1 but then also take his share of intercept marks. Looks terrific and has the scope to hold down a key defence post long term. He's not that far behind Marchbank or Goddard and should be in that same conversation as someone who for me is in that top group of key defenders this year.

Michael Harley is another who could be had as a rookie, can play immediately and while not a rebounder can certainly beat his direct opponent.



In your post it is unclear who you are talking about. Are you talking about Reece McKenzie? If so while it's not certain he is available at Hawthorn's pick he is a fair chance to be available regardless of where the Hawks are picking.

crap.... I was talking about Harry Dear...

Feel a little silly.

 

[Knightmare]

crap.... I was talking about Harry Dear...

Feel a little silly.

To get Dear it won't take an early pick. A third round pick if keen should do it, no problem.

Teams will be aware of Dear and there may be a few other clubs who would consider him but I don't see anyone bidding a first round pick and likely not a second round pick either.

 

[Oddhawk]

To get Dear it won't take an early pick. A third round pick if keen should do it, no problem.

Teams will be aware of Dear and there may be a few other clubs who would consider him but I don't see anyone bidding a first round pick and likely not a second round pick either.

Also if the Hawks manage to trade into the top 12 who would you have us taking.

 

[Knightmare]

Also if the Hawks manage to trade into the top 12 who would you have us taking.

Jayden Laverde is one I could see the Hawks liking somewhere inside the top 12 if a pick in that range can be manufactured.

In saying that any number of players in that range could be appropriate list fits - talls, damaging midfielders, flankers. A pick just inside the top 12 is a really good spot this year to be drafting with that top end pretty even and some really good talents likely to be available around that point.

 

[Oddhawk]

Jayden Laverde is one I could see the Hawks liking somewhere inside the top 12 if a pick in that range can be manufactured.

In saying that any number of players in that range could be appropriate list fits - talls, damaging midfielders, flankers. A pick just inside the top 12 is a really good spot this year to be drafting with that top end pretty even and some really good talents likely to be available around that point.

Lavarde is definitely the name I was thinking but gut feel tells me he might be the bolter.

 

[TerryWallet]

Question to Knight, Chris, Skipposs and anyone who would like to answer.

Which Clubs do you see nominating Stretch, Findlayson and Hammelmann to make Melb, GWS and Bris use their early 2nd Rd picks. Personally i think all 3 are worthy and will be bid on. And i also think all 3 will be matched.