Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[12Chill]

Probably not in the right thread here but while it is very early for the 2015 draft who do you think (Knightmare) will be in the top 5? How is the 2015 draft shaping up?

Thanks.

(I'm not KM obviously, but here's my personal take on it if it's fine by KM to post it here).
The top players for next year's draft imo include Darcy Parish, Rhys Mathieson, Darcy Tucker, Benjamin Keays (Brisbane Academy), Callum Mills (Sydney Acadmey), Josh Dunkley (Sydney Father/Son), Ryan Burton (but did a bad leg injury and won't play for most if not all of next year such as the U18 Champs), Joshua Schache and Nick O'Kearney. Those are a bunch of the best crop for next year.

 

[Stylo]

I think there's a couple of things unlikely here. Firstly, Weller is a very slim chance to slide to the Tigers, in fact I've given up on him getting to #11 for my Eagles. You never know, but he just seems too classy to get overlooked, and there are four suitors, in GWS, GC, Geelong and WCE, who will all have him in their top 2 or 3 for those early picks. Secondly, are you confusing Weller with a Victorian player? He's from Tassie and has lived up in Queensland for the past few years. His brother is playing in Melbourne but that seems like less of a draw than the average player has to want to go to a specific state. But I'm just guessing.

Not confusing him with anyone. I heard (not sure how true it is, granted) that he wants to be as close Mav as possible, and that his family is planning to move down to Vic soon as well. So his preference would be to play in Vic. You're probably right that he'd have too many suitors though, can't see him getting past Geelong and I suspect he may be the reason they traded up.

 

[436hilly]

Who said anything about putting a line through players?

If a certain race of people had a higher go home rate it would be stupid to completely ignore that when drafting a player. Inb4 "dats racist"

You got any Stats on this claim??

From my recollection the 'go home' rate, at least in the recent high profile cases, has been quite high in Caucasians - Boyd, Gunston, Polec, Tippett, Clark, Caddy etc.......

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, any chance Weller slides to 12? I've heard he might not want to play anywhere but Vic due to family.

Highly improbable Weller makes it through to 12.

Hard to see him slipping past Geelong at 10, even if Gold Coast pass on him at 8 and Collingwood at 5.

 

[fronkalicious]

Hi km

If Goddard, marchbank and Mcdonald are all off the board by 26, who are the other key defence options for the dogs??

Thanks again for all your responses and info.

 

[Kappa]

You got any Stats on this claim??

From my recollection the 'go home' rate, at least in the recent high profile cases, has been quite high in Caucasians - Boyd, Gunston, Polec, Tippett, Clark, Caddy etc.......

Of course, if you only name Caucasian players in your examples

 

[ClayB]

You got any Stats on this claim??

From my recollection the 'go home' rate, at least in the recent high profile cases, has been quite high in Caucasians - Boyd, Gunston, Polec, Tippett, Clark, Caddy etc.......

If Jack Martin or Harley Bennell want to come home anytime soon, I'd be okay with that

 

[Knightmare]

Probably not in the right thread here but while it is very early for the 2015 draft who do you think (Knightmare) will be in the top 5? How is the 2015 draft shaping up?

Thanks.

Callum Mills (Syd - academy), Darcy Parish, Ben Keays (Bris - academy), Nick O'Kearney and Ryan Burton would be my top 5. Sydney's F/S pick Josh Dunkley at 6 just misses my top 5.

Sydney once again next year are made.

He did score equal 4th in the kicking test at the combine, so the potential is there.

The kicking test doesn't so much suggest potential. Clem Smith is near on the worst kick in the draft and he finished top 10 in the kicking. Maynard's kicking can also be hit and miss so I put zero stock into the testing.

One thing worth noting with Drummond. He had a game that included 2 efficient and 16 inefficient kicks. There are bits he does well at times, he can at times deliver some low hard kicks, and can at times find the inside 50 targets and lower his eyes, but he really overkicks it too over, trys to take guys heads off, hit and miss on his kick etc. It's not a strength and just hopefully he irons it out.

Hi Champ im seeing a massive trend in recruiting where best available is not picked...

No way West Coast have been picking Vic kids they have a clear focus and the Bulldogs will this draft do the same..watch for all our pics to be \Cannon or Jets sometimes Dragons or stingrays but look over WA and SA kids thoughts...

In my draft worth noting - my power rankings reflect where I rate guys, my phantom draft is where I see guys going - with my personal views or otherwise of guys not coming into it.

I don't it matting so much where guys come from - what state/what team they play for. If they suit your list, if they play the game you need and if they're open to playing in WCE's case in WA then take them if deemed best available at your pick.

There will always to an extent be some bias towards guys from the state your team is located in - you may have scouted the player more extensively and have some greater insight and there isn't the go home factor, but it's a small, small consideration, or should be only a small consideration with the best player at the end of the day what you want.

(I'm not KM obviously, but here's my personal take on it if it's fine by KM to post it here).
The top players for next year's draft imo include Darcy Parish, Rhys Mathieson, Darcy Tucker, Benjamin Keays (Brisbane Academy), Callum Mills (Sydney Acadmey), Josh Dunkley (Sydney Father/Son), Ryan Burton (but did a bad leg injury and won't play for most if not all of next year such as the U18 Champs), Joshua Schache and Nick O'Kearney. Those are a bunch of the best crop for next year.

All in my first round talents at this stage.

Some other names worth watching for, for those who love the names, in addition Parish, Mathieson, Tucker, Keays, Mills, Dunkley, Burton, Schache and O'Kearney who you rightly mention also watch for (from VIC) Harley Balic, Jacob Weitering, Sam Weideman, Thomas Cole, Sam Skinner.

Hi km

If Goddard, marchbank and Mcdonald are all off the board by 26, who are the other key defence options for the dogs??

Thanks again for all your responses and info.

McDonald should be there at 26, no problem. Otherwise I'd probably be looking at rookies. A Hugh Beasley as a rookie can play and is good if you don't mind someone relatively short by position. Michael Hartley as a rookie, maybe a Matt Sully both as mature agers can contribute. Daniel Nielson is another who has is fans and late draft should be available.

 

[grundog49]

I haven't updated the op I have him going to Adelaide in the second round.

KM, when is this updated version coming?

 

[grundog49]

Hey Knightmare, which key defenders have the highest ceilings when it comes to potential?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, when is this updated version coming?

Depends on my schedule. This weekend or sometime next week is probable.

Hey Knightmare, which key defenders have the highest ceilings when it comes to potential?

Lever/Goddard/Marchbank/Durdin are all for potential in the same conversation. The best from that group is probably a result of the best developmental system. So say if Adelaide take one of these guys, and they develop key defenders better than anyone in the league historically - Rutten/Bock/P.Davis/Talia, they may end up with the best of the lot. And it could go the other way with say GWS or Melbourne if they took Lever, he might not achieve that same elite level of play there as younger teams without that same quantity of veterans and winners around to help the youth develop.

 

[killerspud]

If you want to sweep problems under the carpet and pretend everything is sunshine and rainbows, sure.

Um I think the point made is that Bennell, Wingard and Martin have all gone at the top in recent years. At the Hawks we tried and lost on Dayle Garlett but won on Brad Hill. There are dud indigenous players just as there are superstars and I reckon the probability of them succeeding and failing is the same as the non-indigenous kids in the draft.

KM any chance the Hawks could get Caleb Daniels - he sounds the most intriguing player in this year's draft

 

[Knightmare]

Um I think the point made is that Bennell, Wingard and Martin have all gone at the top in recent years. At the Hawks we tried and lost on Dayle Garlett but won on Brad Hill. There are dud indigenous players just as there are superstars and I reckon the probability of them succeeding and failing is the same as the non-indigenous kids in the draft.

KM any chance the Hawks could get Caleb Daniels - he sounds the most intriguing player in this year's draft

As a rookie Hawthorn probably can take Caleb Daniel and I feel he would be a strong choice.

Hawthorn generally don't like to go small and see height across the ground as important just as skills are viewed as critically important. So my guess is based on the value the club places on height I imagine Hawthorn pass.

 

[Harvey Manfrenjensenden]

[QUOTE="Knightmare, post: 35912279,

The kicking test doesn't so much suggest potential. Clem Smith is near on the worst kick in the draft and he finished top 10 in the kicking. Maynard's kicking can also be hit and miss so I put zero stock into the testing.

One thing worth noting with Drummond. He had a game that included 2 efficient and 16 inefficient kicks. There are bits he does well at times, he can at times deliver some low hard kicks, and can at times find the inside 50 targets and lower his eyes, but he really overkicks it too over, trys to take guys heads off, hit and miss on his kick etc. It's not a strength and just hopefully he irons it out.

Bucks will be disappointed you don't rate his kicking test.m I don't know anything about how thry conduct the test. Thanks for the info.

 

[Tex200]

KM - rumour on our board we are a strong chance to take Reece McKenzie at 14. Can't vouch for the accuracy, but interested on your thoughts re: Reece and his fit for the Crows

 

[MightyDons4]

KM - rumour on our board we are a strong chance to take Reece McKenzie at 14. Can't vouch for the accuracy, but interested on your thoughts re: Reece and his fit for the Crows

Bracing for the departure of Tex perhaps?

 

[grundog49]

Bracing for the departure of Tex perhaps?

He lived in broken hill, a Adelaide mad town. He was a massive fan of the crows before he was drafted. And he should like the team first attitude brought in by Phil Walsh. Reece would create competition for the spot of Josh Jenkins.

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

He lived in broken hill, a Adelaide mad town. He was a massive fan of the crows before he was drafted. And he should like the team first attitude brought in by Phil Walsh. Reece would create competition for the spot of Josh Jenkins.

JPod and Lynch's reaction after reading your post:

http://i.imgur.com/s2Oy0Jw.jpg

 

[Knightmare]

KM - rumour on our board we are a strong chance to take Reece McKenzie at 14. Can't vouch for the accuracy, but interested on your thoughts re: Reece and his fit for the Crows

Wouldn't expect there to be much substance to that rumour. I really like McKenzie and I'd be ok with spending a pick around 20 on him if needing a key forward, but Adelaide need a key defender more and it's hard to see Adelaide overlooking the quality of key defence options likely to be available with at least one of: Marchbank/Goddard/Durdin surely available.

I like Walker and Jenkins. So there are some other teams I see needing McKenzie more.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

The kicking test doesn't so much suggest potential. Clem Smith is near on the worst kick in the draft and he finished top 10 in the kicking.

Geez if Clem Smith is the worst kick in the draft pool this is a remarkable year for foot skills! We've certainly seen a few real clangers off his boot, but so many of his kicks are also perfectly weighted. Have you seen the latest edit of his tape on the AFL's trade hub? I know these highlights are exactly that, highlights, but boy there are some real bullets off Clem's boot, and he has a natural, fluid action.

 

[Knightmare]

Geez if Clem Smith is the worst kick in the draft pool this is a remarkable year for foot skills! We've certainly seen a few real clangers off his boot, but so many of his kicks are also perfectly weighted. Have you seen the latest edit of his tape on the AFL's trade hub? I know these highlights are exactly that, highlights, but boy there are some real bullets off Clem's boot, and he has a natural, fluid action.

I should re-phrase, the worst kick among those who will certainly get drafted.

 

[kaistar]

Knight lachie Weller moves a bit like wingard. He has the bit of skill and polish that wingard has? See any comparison?

 

[Knightmare]

Knight lachie Weller moves a bit like wingard. He has the bit of skill and polish that wingard has? See any comparison?

Wingard is higher level forward talent. Weller quick very quick and skilled isn't damaging on that same level.

 

[PieMan!]

knightmare when will you be updating your mock draft ??

 

[Knightmare]

knightmare when will you be updating your mock draft ??

Maybe this weekend, maybe next week.

I've got other work that is my priority for now.