Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[DarlinCatchemnt]

I should re-phrase, the worst kick among those who will certainly get drafted.

Right. Still...

 

[Chris25]

Smith's kicking problems are very overrated. The odd shank doesn't mean he can't kick. You could argue that they're the anomalies, not the norm.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

Hey KM every year there seems to be someone who I watch at the champs, and think that he is going to be highly touted only to find out that he is likely to go late in the draft. This year that person is Daniel Butler. He looked really accomplished the times I saw him play. He was clean, made good decisions and just seemed to be getting the job done without any fuss. And this was before I realised that he had extreme speed. He did strike me as someone who was physically well developed and may not have as much scope to improve as some others but could you please fill me in on why he isn't rated as highly as I thought he would be.

Perhaps I'm just a poor judge of talent.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM every year there seems to be someone who I watch at the champs, and think that he is going to be highly touted only to find out that he is likely to go late in the draft. This year that person is Daniel Butler. He looked really accomplished the times I saw him play. He was clean, made good decisions and just seemed to be getting the job done without any fuss. And this was before I realised that he had extreme speed. He did strike me as someone who was physically well developed and may not have as much scope to improve as some others but could you please fill me in on why he isn't rated as highly as I thought he would be.

Perhaps I'm just a poor judge of talent.

Footskills - hit and miss is the major issue.

I liked his pace and ability to take on the game early season primarily but I just have come to favour others which is just personal preference.

Late/rookie he is int he mix.

 

[David Spencer]

Knigtmare - what have you done re swans man Beasley as a rookie? he has now come in at 53 on fans choice on afl website - you were suppossed to keep him quiet so there was no interest - THANKS -

 

[captain cotch 9]

No offence but who are you?
Just a fan that is really into the under 18s?
Respect for your efet anyway

 

[Knightmare]

Knigtmare - what have you done re swans man Beasley as a rookie? he has now come in at 53 on fans choice on afl website - you were suppossed to keep him quiet so there was no interest - THANKS -

Beasley next update will have just crept into my top 50.

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the fans choice. It will be a contest of who has the most school friends/largest family/or junior cult following.

No offence but who are you?
Just a fan that is really into the under 18s?
Respect for your efet anyway

I'm a fan wanting to take the next step into clubland - watching lots of u18s/state league footy/AFL/school footy. Just looking to take that next step each year until eventually I'm there.

 

[grundog49]

KM, is there a new trend at the early picks they chose utilities on the hope they will be good. Because it was Ruckman in the early 2000's, Midfielders late 2000's and Key forwards in the early 2010's and now utilities. Could there be a time where the draft back or forward pockets high?

 

[dewah07]

I was just talking about players who I think could fall to 21,22 and started discussing players who may slide. I came up with my list and would love your thoughts on who could potentially slide out of top18ish that everyone seems to have as locks to be taken

My slider list would include
Cockatoo - obvious reasons, lack of game time in 2014
Durdin- I'm sure you have seen more but the only good games I saw of him were as a ruck
Lever- some clubs will be scared off and won't be willing to take the risk, 30% more likely to do it again compared to someone who hasent, will Patton set a precedent and make him slide
Ellis - always seems every year a solid mid who has proved himself slides due to clubs falling Inlove with a random player causing him to fall
Langford- he's a bit weird I would lock him as a top8 but clubs may want something more certain
Duggan- see Ellis
Gartlett. (If you count him)

 

[x_les_x]

Hey km, Just a few questions:

How far can bampton and glenn slide?

Chances of spurling/tester/preuss/creeper being drafted in the nd?

any rumours regarding port?

Thanks mate

 

[MightyDons4]

I was just talking about players who I think could fall to 21,22 and started discussing players who may slide. I came up with my list and would love your thoughts on who could potentially slide out of top18ish that everyone seems to have as locks to be taken

My slider list would include
Cockatoo - obvious reasons, lack of game time in 2014
Durdin- I'm sure you have seen more but the only good games I saw of him were as a ruck
Lever- some clubs will be scared off and won't be willing to take the risk, 30% more likely to do it again compared to someone who hasent, will Patton set a precedent and make him slide
Ellis - always seems every year a solid mid who has proved himself slides due to clubs falling Inlove with a random player causing him to fall
Langford- he's a bit weird I would lock him as a top8 but clubs may want something more certain
Duggan- see Ellis
Gartlett. (If you count him)

Not sure Durdin will slide, the others could. I think Cockatoo will be the biggest slider due to his lack of exposure

 

[dewah07]

Not sure Durdin will slide, the others could. I think Cockatoo will be the biggest slider due to his lack of exposure

Honest question, have u ever seen a game where durdin played well when he didn't ruck? Cause he isn't gonna be an afl ruck

 

[rumoursofwinter]

I was just watching a few videos on the AFL sight and noticed Christian Buykx-Smith. (i had never heard of him) He looked very classy for a tall defender. I saw he got a late call up for the combine due to injury. Is he likely to be drafted? He seemed to have some tools.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Not sure Durdin will slide, the others could. I think Cockatoo will be the biggest slider due to his lack of exposure

Is Cockatoo a slider though? How many people even had him pegged to go first round?

 

[Babylove]

Hey KM, I was just wondering if there is anyone you see doing a Grundy/Lewis Taylor style slide in the draft this year. Like Grundy was tipped to go as high as 3 and drifted out to 18 & Taylor sliding to a late 20s second round selection. Is there anyone you see doing something like that this year?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, is there a new trend at the early picks they chose utilities on the hope they will be good. Because it was Ruckman in the early 2000's, Midfielders late 2000's and Key forwards in the early 2010's and now utilities. Could there be a time where the draft back or forward pockets high?

Clubs I'd hope with utilities and really all their selections more of a reason for drafting them than just that. I'd hope it would be based on a combination of strong on field performance and a mix of traits that set them apart at the next level. Clubs place some value on versatility and like multi-position players, we're seeing the value of that at Hawthorn and clubs are coming to understand that, that can be useful, but if your versatile but a master of no tricks and not dominant by position, you shouldn't at least in my mind be getting drafted because at the end of the day eventually you need at least to find a position you can play to a higher level than someone else in your best 22.

There do seem to be the themes whereby clubs undervalue/overvalue certain types. Undersized ruckmen as an example early draft back some 10 years ago now were long been overrated and among those highest fail rates unless they could adjust to a different position.

As a rule I see the inside mids early draft as the safe and high % gets. The tall utilities who are in vogue I'm open to considering but on the condition that they really have some dominant traits, a position I can see that is a best position (which I may see for Laverde, but not Lamb as an example), but then also they need the performance on the board.

I was just talking about players who I think could fall to 21,22 and started discussing players who may slide. I came up with my list and would love your thoughts on who could potentially slide out of top18ish that everyone seems to have as locks to be taken

My slider list would include
Cockatoo - obvious reasons, lack of game time in 2014
Durdin- I'm sure you have seen more but the only good games I saw of him were as a ruck
Lever- some clubs will be scared off and won't be willing to take the risk, 30% more likely to do it again compared to someone who hasent, will Patton set a precedent and make him slide
Ellis - always seems every year a solid mid who has proved himself slides due to clubs falling Inlove with a random player causing him to fall
Langford- he's a bit weird I would lock him as a top8 but clubs may want something more certain
Duggan- see Ellis
Gartlett. (If you count him)

I'd actually be inclined to say all those guys other than perhaps Durdin and Lever go higher than they're mostly being predicted to go. Lever may go top 3/4, but equally he could slide to 10. Durdin could slide as far as 14 for all I know and is no top 10 lock as has been long assumed, I agree with you that for Durdin the best position issue is a relevant one as he this year anyway has looked best in the ruck which isn't a viable position at AFL level and he is as a result moving down my standings slightly also.

Ellis I'm not a huge fan of but he'll go around 20, perhaps even close to pick 10.

Langford could go as late as the late teens but may go top 10. No surprise anywhere as long as he's gone before 20.

Cockatoo may go as high as 11 but as long as he doesn't slide past pick 30 there isn't anything overly surprising there.

Garlett may while mostly having been seen as a second rounder even surprise some and go first round.

Hey km, Just a few questions:

How far can bampton and glenn slide?

Chances of spurling/tester/preuss/creeper being drafted in the nd?

any rumours regarding port?

Thanks mate

The talk is Bampton isn't rated nearly as high as I rate him. It's not out of the question that he slides into the rookie draft, but most likely he goes from recent talk around 40-50 to narrow his draft range down. If he goes that late, bargain.

With Glenn I don't see sliding as being as relevant as rising. He isn't a consensus say top 30 talent. I have him in my top 40 (not that I've updated my power rankings) but if he goes in the national draft that is more the desired outcome rather than expecting to go even in the first half of the draft, which while possible is not assured. Glenn presumably goes in either the national or rookie draft but I'd like with Bampton back him in to go national draft and somewhere around picks 40-50, perhaps in the 30s if he interviewed well.

Spurling/Tester/Preuss/Creeper all really outside chances but plausible.

Given how late Port Adelaide are coming into the draft I doubt there will be heavy rumours going into the draft. It's just so late in the draft that it anyone could be available, possibly someone Port Adelaide don't expect. Josh Glenn is a name that would surely be considered as a home state guy who can produce immediately which makes sense for Port who will be looking to contend. Maybe a Peter Bampton. Maybe another slider - Gore if he slides. I know I'd be going best available slider anyway in Port's situation. Caleb Daniel as a sneaky rookie choice I also like, as someone with his motor and footskills/decision making he is someone I like in Port's system.

I was just watching a few videos on the AFL sight and noticed Christian Buykx-Smith. (i had never heard of him) He looked very classy for a tall defender. I saw he got a late call up for the combine due to injury. Is he likely to be drafted? He seemed to have some tools.

He's not a high production guy. Without even reviewing his numbers I could I imagine on one hand count how many double figure disposal games he has had this season.

I expected him to step up after showing some signs last year but he has been really quiet on a bad team.

 

[joop]

Hey KM, apologies if this has been answered before. But what is the knock on Dean Gore. Seems to have all the traits to be a great AFL player and someone who could be ready to go Round 1 next year.
Not having watched any of his games besides the champs I'm just interested why he isn't rated higher, and on that could he last to 41.
Thsnks mate great work this year as always.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, I was just wondering if there is anyone you see doing a Grundy/Lewis Taylor style slide in the draft this year. Like Grundy was tipped to go as high as 3 and drifted out to 18 & Taylor sliding to a late 20s second round selection. Is there anyone you see doing something like that this year?

Watch for Peter Bampton. He may even be available at 48 for the Pies. He's a terrific midfielder and if he goes that late he would be near on the bargain of the draft. Reece McKenzie also if he makes it to pick 30 I'd love from a value standpoint to have him. Terrifically dominant key forward. Caleb Daniel as a rookie screams value. Josh Glenn if available at 48 would be a strong value choice. Brenden Abbott as a rookie I also like as someone who has some real power to him. Billy Evans as a tall, big bodied midfielder as a rookie also intrigues me.

Those are the types of bargains I'd be looking for this year for the Pies.

Hey KM, apologies if this has been answered before. But what is the knock on Dean Gore. Seems to have all the traits to be a great AFL player and someone who could be ready to go Round 1 next year.
Not having watched any of his games besides the champs I'm just interested why he isn't rated higher, and on that could he last to 41.
Thsnks mate great work this year as always.

Endurance while I haven't seen his testing numbers i imagine likely isn't high enough given he has spent a fair bit of time off a forward flank. He could find more outside ball and his disposal under pressure at times can be iffy. But I really like Gore. Just such a big guy, but skilled and powerful guy and the production and senior SANFL League footy form is there also. A tick of endorsement from me. Any later than pick 20 and you're getting a good one in Gore.

Likely he lands around the 30-40 mark to narrow his draft range down. So if that happens, whoever takes Gore I imagine will be ecstatic.

 

[dewah07]

Love your work km

 

[HawkintheTuarts]

Smith's kicking problems are very overrated. The odd shank doesn't mean he can't kick. You could argue that they're the anomalies, not the norm.

"The odd shank" is the worst clanger count at the U18 champs of anyone there, at over 5 a game. Next "best" would be Neal-Bullen at 3.7avg. I think that indicative that it's more than the odd shank.

 

[Chris25]

That's the problem with basing a view off stats alone.

 

[Dunny82]

McCartin is more dominant closer to goal, Hogan is more a natural centre half forward. I'd take Hogan first, but both are in the same conversation as similarly dominant key forwards and forwards who shouldn't need the usual four seasons to develop.

Hey KM, saw this statement and it raised a couple of q's for me. If it takes 4 seasons for key forwards to develop, what has been your experience for mids, 3 seasons? And do you generally have an idea of when they roughly hit their peak, 6-8 seasons perhaps?

 

[TheJackal]

Hey KM, big fan of all the work you and others do on the draft on here.

My question is do you reckon Lachie Weller could slide to 21/22? I think Saints fans (myself included) are hoping he has tanked his interviews in the hope of playing with Mav which he is pretty vocal about. I know at times throughout the year he has moved around in your order due to niggling injuries and concerns over him not playing div one footy but is he considered a top 10 cert again?

 

[george2]

Hey KM just wondering about your thoughts on Langford? I am preparing for Freo to overlook a KPP and he just seems like the kind of player that we would target because of his versatility along with Lamb. What is his better position and do you think he has the attributes to be able to play midfield. Thanks in advance

 

[Stylo]

Hey KM, big fan of all the work you and others do on the draft on here.

My question is do you reckon Lachie Weller could slide to 21/22? I think Saints fans (myself included) are hoping he has tanked his interviews in the hope of playing with Mav which he is pretty vocal about. I know at times throughout the year he has moved around in your order due to niggling injuries and concerns over him not playing div one footy but is he considered a top 10 cert again?

No chance whatsoever