Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Periphery]

2011:
16. Jack Newnes

Interesting post KM.

I'm just wondering if you have been surprised by Newnes so far and where you think he can go from here? He has said he wants to develop his inside game to hopefully allow him to play more in the middle. If he can do that then I think he could be a really good player.

It's also nice to see that you rate Acres fairly highly still. What did you think of his performances this year (even if they were pretty limited) and how did it effect your rating of him? From the little I saw in his AFL games he didn't look out of place and he is probably the player I am most excited about to see next year.

To bring it back to this year: What are the chances Petracca goes at 1? Is he almost a lock at this stage? Also I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how you think he will go with the step up to AFL with the bigger bodies. Has he relied on his size to much or is it not an issue with him? Personally I don't think it will be an issue but there was some talk about it in another thread and I wanted to see what you think about it. Do bigger kids dominate at lower levels because they are big or because they are big and good?

Thanks in advance!

 

[Knightmare]

Interesting post KM.

I'm just wondering if you have been surprised by Newnes so far and where you think he can go from here? He has said he wants to develop his inside game to hopefully allow him to play more in the middle. If he can do that then I think he could be a really good player.

It's also nice to see that you rate Acres fairly highly still. What did you think of his performances this year (even if they were pretty limited) and how did it effect your rating of him? From the little I saw in his AFL games he didn't look out of place and he is probably the player I am most excited about to see next year.

To bring it back to this year: What are the chances Petracca goes at 1? Is he almost a lock at this stage? Also I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on how you think he will go with the step up to AFL with the bigger bodies. Has he relied on his size to much or is it not an issue with him? Personally I don't think it will be an issue but there was some talk about it in another thread and I wanted to see what you think about it. Do bigger kids dominate at lower levels because they are big or because they are big and good?

Thanks in advance!

Newnes is interesting and is one of St Kilda's better young pieces. He is a very uncontested guy so it's hard to see him stepping into an inside role. Doesn't mean he can't slightly improve his contested/uncontested ratio though and make a few further slight improvements.

Acres I rated highly last year through the draft but with injury we haven't seen much of him. The one part that hasn't impressed me is his work by hand but if he cleans that up he has the scope I maintain to become one of the best from last years strong group as someone with a really well rounded game and some real scope to become something through the midfield. My prediction for next year if he has a healthy and strong preseason is that he'll be a real breakout player for the Saints. Perhaps not on the Macrae level of production but he in his own right really has the ability to make a big jump next season.

Petracca 90/10 is going pick 1. There haven't been any rumours suggesting anyone else is in the mix so it is just about a lock. I don't see him having any great difficulty making the jump. His story pretty much is in 2013 he was a dominant strong marking forward and this year he transitioned more into a midfield and occasional forward flank role. I imagine his first season will reflect something very similar to Dustin Martin as probably more a powerful forward flanker who spends periods through the midfield and has no trouble adjusting.

With Petracca he is big and he is good. And the same can be said of Brayshaw. While both are big they also critically have other tricks. Petracca with his marking ability forward of centre (he is not only powerful but an incredible technical forward) then Brayshaw with his unusual dual sided and damaging footskills (think Sam Mitchell with a big body). In terms of winning the ball at the lower levels, it helps being big and it can give you an advantage, but it's more the glacial slow guys you avoid - Jared Hardisty is an example of this where he's a big guy (178cm, 86kg) and he can really bully guys inside and his numbers are terrific but he doesn't have that extra something and in the AFL which today more than ever is an athletes game you can't have guys who are completely immobile and void of movement. Alec Waterman who has gone to WCE as a father son choice is a similar story at 183cm, 89kg and I worry about how he will go against better competition as similarly he doesn't have as many tricks and also lacks some quickness, though not to the same extent as Hardisty.
At all levels there are guys like that but if you find super big bodied midfielders you want to find guys who can do something else and also can cover the ground well enough. Tick those boxes as the recent top end big bodied midfielders have and have the production on the board and you've got a good one.
And Petracca and Brayshaw early draft look terrific.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Geez guys, I have to say this thread has never been less interesting. I mean really? Carlton and Collingwood fans arguing over the quality of their kids? Take it somewhere else. This is where I come to get the best and most thorough discussions re the upcoming draft. KM is great and so are many others of you - offering insight and considered arguments about what to expect from this group of draftees.

Can we leave this crap here?

 

[Rockford]

Geez guys, I have to say this thread has never been less interesting. I mean really? Carlton and Collingwood fans arguing over the quality of their kids? Take it somewhere else. This is where I come to get the best and most thorough discussions re the upcoming draft. KM is great and so are many others of you - offering insight and considered arguments about what to expect from this group of draftees.

But whilst we're on the topic, here's an unbiased view on what's been said here...

- The Blues kids aren't the best, and some of the names being brought up here have only highlighted what most observers (many from the Blues themselves) would agree on - that Carlton's list isn't in the very best shape.

- Secondly, I would say some of the fan-fair by Pie supporters about their young prospects is genuinely laughable. These lists of the best young players in the comp are obviously objective, but on multiple occasions I found myself confused to see a Magpie rated unimaginably high, only to seed they were a Collingwood supporter. This benefits no one. Although to a far less degree than most, I would even say KM is guilty of this to a degree, but I'll give the man the benefit of the doubt and say this is largely due to his inside knowledge of these players.

Can we leave this crap here?

You've just re-derailed the thread. No one had said a thing about it since last night. Back to the draft.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

You've just re-derailed the thread. No one had said a thing about it since last night. Back to the draft.

Re-derailed, just like that? If that were true it wouldn't take much.

Glad to hear you reckon it's all done with. I'm overseas and just catching up. That stuff has no place here in my mind.

I concur, back to that draft.

 

[MightyDons4]

Hey KM,
How much of a stretch do you think it would be to take Toby McLean at 20? Where do you see him ranking up against other small forwards/mid's in this draft? He seems like a Jamie Elliot with slightly less forward smarts but he has the ability to push into the midfield and boasts some big numbers at TAC level.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

This is a fascinating, though brief, article from Cal Twomey. Could Wright really slide out of the top 10 or 12 picks? He's never looked like the kind of player to get me too excited, but you'd have thought someone would take the punt pretty early. I think the most interesting thing to come from it (which we can assume is a result of CT getting the word from GWS) is who now goes to the giants? You'd say Lever is a lock, but could they really take one or more of Goddard and Marchbank? That seems very early in the piece for these two, and turning your back on the likes of Weller and Pickett would be a curious move.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-02/drift-from-the-wright

 

[InFineForm]

KM - keen to know your thoughts on the KPF/KPD in terms of hwo is going to impact quickly, and who will take significant time to develop?
Wright & McCartin are obviously already big guys who have filled out into their bodies, Durdin & Goddard look like sticks.

 

[Gunstall555]

Hi Knightmare love most of your stuff. I think Brad Hill is pretty stiff not to be in the list of the best 50 players. He has actually achieved stuff unlike most in that list to date and is a proven performer in finals for a 20 year old. How can a guy like Gleeson get in over Hill?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,
How much of a stretch do you think it would be to take Toby McLean at 20? Where do you see him ranking up against other small forwards/mid's in this draft? He seems like a Jamie Elliot with slightly less forward smarts but he has the ability to push into the midfield and boasts some big numbers at TAC level.

20 is higher than i see McLean going. A first round pick for a small forward is generally ill-advised. 30 onward is more when he could be considered I imagine. Really like his game though and he does look something like a poor man's Elliott.

This is a fascinating, though brief, article from Cal Twomey. Could Wright really slide out of the top 10 or 12 picks? He's never looked like the kind of player to get me too excited, but you'd have thought someone would take the punt pretty early. I think the most interesting thing to come from it (which we can assume is a result of CT getting the word from GWS) is who now goes to the giants? You'd say Lever is a lock, but could they really take one or more of Goddard and Marchbank? That seems very early in the piece for these two, and turning your back on the likes of Weller and Pickett would be a curious move.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-11-02/drift-from-the-wright

I think Cal might be on the money. It depends on whether GWS want Wright but if you go through the teams logically - Collingwood with Grundy and Witts probably don't need him, and Moore also added. Gold Coast have Nicholls, Smith, Gorringe, Dixon and Lynch. So it's incredibly plausible that Wright slides and if deemed by some clubs a ruckman maybe even into the mid teens.

There has been some talk lately that GWS will go one key defender, one on-baller and one outside mid. But GWS have shown they are more than happy to go tall happy on draft day and cash them in later on (see Boyd) so it depends on whether they're in win now mode or whether they're still accumulating assets.

Personally if I was GWS I'd be taking Wright with pick 6. Collingwood isn't picking him, he's not a finals performer and they've got Moore already who is probably a little better, and GWS with their ruck stocks I view as fairly lean. They've got the injury prone Mumford and now Giles has been traded leaving only a bunch of project rucks. They're probably better served adding a further ruckman later on down the road as a free agent post Mumford, but Wright I see as a useful piece and a guy with the upside to possibly if things go right to become the best in the draft, which is hard to pass up.

It's hard to see GWS taking more than one key defender, they still have a few developing key defenders and I imagine more likely than not Lever will be their guy. Goddard and Marchbank I'm struggling to see go top 10 let alone top 7.

KM - keen to know your thoughts on the KPF/KPD in terms of hwo is going to impact quickly, and who will take significant time to develop?
Wright & McCartin are obviously already big guys who have filled out into their bodies, Durdin & Goddard look like sticks.

Key position players all take time. You can get the most talented key forward in the country and they'll likely struggle to kick a goal a game over a season at AFL level.

If you want an immediate key forward Brett Eddy is the guy as the best performed state league key forward this year. As a key defender if looking immediate Michael Hartley would be my pick as another mature ager as a purely negating type (think Prestigiacomo) as someone who can play a role and do it well from season one if required.

Of the new ones McCartin will be the only relatively immediate guy. The others need 3/4 years to develop before they can make any noise at AFL level.

Hi Knightmare love most of your stuff. I think Brad Hill is pretty stiff not to be in the list of the best 50 players. He has actually achieved stuff unlike most in that list to date and is a proven performer in finals for a 20 year old. How can a guy like Gleeson get in over Hill?

I agree with you that Hill should be in there. Over Gleeson? Possibly not. I've seen Gleeson (as I have with Hill) at his best and I think he's really going to breakout into a terrific player.

Hill is terrific and I concur top 50, probably top 40.

I just wasn't going to spend all day creating a perfect top 50. But I appreciate Hill's improvement and performance particularly this year and he'll be one of the really good players from these recent drafts going forward.

 

[Gunstall555]

I agree with you that Hill should be in there. Over Gleeson? Possibly not. I've seen Gleeson (as I have with Hill) at his best and I think he's really going to breakout into a terrific player.

Hill is terrific and I concur top 50, probably top 40.

I just wasn't going to spend all day creating a perfect top 50. But I appreciate Hill's improvement and performance particularly this year and he'll be one of the really good players from these recent drafts going forward.

What is it that you see in Gleeson that makes you rate him higher than Hill? To be honest I don't see it at all. Another young kid we got at Hawthorn Jed Anderson I'd strongly rate his upside as significantly higher than Geelsons as well.

 

[grundog49]

I've been preaching this since the champs. Caleb hislop. 22 disposals, 4 clearances and 4 tackles in the champs and averging 30+ disposals in the TAC. If he was Victorian, South Australian or Western Australian he would be a top 40 pick, but nope he is Tasmanian with senior experience and relatives who have made it to the big time. KM this is my question to you, would he be a high pick or even u18 all aus if he was in Div 1? And what is his downside cause I can't see any? And will he get drafted?

 

[SugarCoat]

I think Wright will be too hard to pass up for Hine if he is on the board at 5.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey knightmare how d you rate weller/Blakey/laverade withlst years midfielders such as Lennon Salem sheed?

 

[Knightmare]

What is it that you see in Gleeson that makes you rate him higher than Hill? To be honest I don't see it at all. Another young kid we got at Hawthorn Jed Anderson I'd strongly rate his upside as significantly higher than Geelsons as well.

Gleeson has the skillset and good pace, good versatility but the thing that really sticks out with Gleeson is his ability to read the flight to an already elite standard.

I've been preaching this since the champs. Caleb hislop. 22 disposals, 4 clearances and 4 tackles in the champs and averging 30+ disposals in the TAC. If he was Victorian, South Australian or Western Australian he would be a top 40 pick, but nope he is Tasmanian with senior experience and relatives who have made it to the big time. KM this is my question to you, would he be a high pick or even u18 all aus if he was in Div 1? And what is his downside cause I can't see any? And will he get drafted?

Hislop is productive and has some power to him. Hislop to me felt like a powerful accumulator but I'm just not seeing what else he does.

As a rookie he can be considered if looking for a further midfielder but I've seen more and have a higher level of confidence in some of the other options in the national draft.

I think Wright will be too hard to pass up for Hine if he is on the board at 5.

I don't think Wright will be on Collingwood's shortlist to be honest with you. I hope I'm wrong but I see Collingwood looking at Laverde/Ahern/Langford.

Collingwood like their big game players and Wright had a poor finals series yet again this year and like almost all the talls didn't have a massive impact through the u18 champs either. Collingwood like the big game performers and dominant guys who show massive growth to their games and Wright in the minds of many hasn't shown that which is why I see Collingwood passing.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey knightmare how d you rate weller/Blakey/laverade withlst years midfielders such as Lennon Salem sheed?

I slightly prefer this Blakely/Laverde/Langford/Weller to Lennon/Sheed/Salem/Freeman. In saying that though I think Laverde, Langford and Weller probably all go top 10, and Blakely in my view is a top 10 quality prospect even if he doesn't go that high, which is my reason for saying that.

But last years top end and top 10 was much stronger than this years. If this year had an edge it would be just in the larger range of good key position players.

 

[HeavyPop]

Do you still think Reece McKenzie will last until pick 30? His highlight package looked impressive enough to go top 20.

 

[Stan The Caddy]

KM how do you rate Wright against Grundy?

And do you think that Wells will take him if he slides to 10?

I think that even if he does slide we still need to be drafting a quick mid. Thoughts?

Thanks as always.

 

[Gunstall555]

Gleeson has the skillset and good pace, good versatility but the thing that really sticks out with Gleeson is his ability to read the flight to an already elite standard.

To counter that Hill has elite pace and endurance and I believe led the AFL last year in kicking efficiency in the forward half of the ground. You only need to look at his work in the GF to back this up - his kicking vision and execution skills were sublime.

To be honest from what I've seen from both players Brad Hill is a mile in front based on both what he's achieved and what his ceiling can be.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you still think Reece McKenzie will last until pick 30? His highlight package looked impressive enough to go top 20.

Reece McKenzie is impressive/dominant enough to go at 20 but I see clubs looking for guys with more tricks - with McKenzie more a mark and goal forward so he probably goes more 25 onward and probably around 35 overall.

KM how do you rate Wright against Grundy?

And do you think that Wells will take him if he slides to 10?

I think that even if he does slide we still need to be drafting a quick mid. Thoughts?

Thanks as always.

Grundy is by far and away the better ruckman.

Wright the better forward.

Given the additions of Clark and Stanley while it's still plausible if available Geelong take Wright, more probable is Geelong pass I imagine and as you think go the quick mid - say Weller for example.

 

[Knightmare]

To counter that Hill has elite pace and endurance and I believe led the AFL last year in kicking efficiency in the forward half of the ground. You only need to look at his work in the GF to back this up - his kicking vision and execution skills were sublime.

To be honest from what I've seen from both players Brad Hill is a mile in front based on both what he's achieved and what his ceiling can be.

Hill has done more, Gleeson has had his injuries. I'll back in Gleeson on upside as someone with more footballing, but Hill is terrific as an elite athlete with football talent.

 

[grundog49]

Hey KM, who could make our midfield less one paced in the draft with our 2nd/3rd pick in the draft. We already have Riley knight who have some pace and endurance, but who could we add at those picks?

 

[grundog49]

Hislop is productive and has some power to him. Hislop to me felt like a powerful accumulator but I'm just not seeing what else he does.

As a rookie he can be considered if looking for a further midfielder but I've seen more and have a higher level of confidence in some of the other options in the national draft.

but those stats are great for a player in a bad team in the TAC and the Champs, I see him as a hard half back who can push through the midfield. I was wondering who is you comparison for Caleb hislop?

And do you think we could get a Jaden McGrath/Jordan Cunico/Matt Goodyear at the draft with our 4th pick?

 

[Stylo]

KM, despite what I'm reading in countless phantoms on BF, the noises from folk like Quayle/Anderson/Twomey suggest that Weller is definitely not a certainty for top 10, in fact he may only just nudge it. Could it be he's not quite as highly rated amongst recruiters as we thought?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, who could make our midfield less one paced in the draft with our 2nd/3rd pick in the draft. We already have Riley knight who have some pace and endurance, but who could we add at those picks?

Menadue in the 2nd round is plausibly available. Drummond is an exceptionally athletic midfielder and Oleg Markov is an athlete and both in the 2nd-3rd round range are chances.

but those stats are great for a player in a bad team in the TAC and the Champs, I see him as a hard half back who can push through the midfield. I was wondering who is you comparison for Caleb hislop?

And do you think we could get a Jaden McGrath/Jordan Cunico/Matt Goodyear at the draft with our 4th pick?

I don't see Hislop really having anything unique enough to be a back flanker. He's not an exceptional linebreaker, not an exceptional kick or an exceptional reader of the play. Probably something like Jarryd Cachia for a comparison.

KM, despite what I'm reading in countless phantoms on BF, the noises from folk like Quayle/Anderson/Twomey suggest that Weller is definitely not a certainty for top 10, in fact he may only just nudge it. Could it be he's not quite as highly rated amongst recruiters as we thought?

Weller likely goes somewhere around 10. Initially I had him more around 15 but he's worth somewhere around pick 10 and a Geelong or West Coast likely I imagine take him with both I imagine looking to add some more for outside guys and some more pace.