Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

whos a player(s) who ae outside the top 20 that nobody is talking about that we should all be hoping to land?

Reece McKenzie isn't being spoken about and should be available.

Connor Blakely same story and is a real chance to be available.

I'd take both.

For guys people aren't talking about much, Neal-Bullen is something St Kilda are said to be looking at, Gore, Bampton, Cavka, T.McLean, Menadue and McDonald are all guys outside those expected top 15/top20 selections who are also worth discussing.

 

[Knightmare]

KM do you have a profile for Tyler Roos?

His highlights on draft machine make him look a fairly solid prospect? Good pace, kick etc. Just interested as he obviously comes from good stock but haven't heard a thing about him.

I do not have a complete draft profile for Roos. This year I went quality over quantity.

Roos is a real competitor and has a crack but other than that hard edge he needs to clean up his skillset and ideally would be a better athlete also.

I personally wouldn't draft Roos but he is someone where if you were a state league recruiter you'd be licking your licks and wanting him on your team because more at that level he could really offer something and be a good long player.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

After 2 Thursday's time Knighters, would it be right to switch focus on the 2015 lot or would you feel burnt out and needing a break?

 

[Demon 16]

KM,

Some talk that Melbourne have cooled on McCartin due to his health issues and are looking at DeGoey with 3 - any opinions on that from purely a player/talent perspective?

As a note, we have a diabetic on our list (Fitzpatrick) so our decision should be relatively informed in this case.

I'd be disappointed if we overlooked McCartin, but if we do I would like us to take Wright.

 

[mike123]

My power rankings and draft profiles are all my opinions, the actual phantom draft order I base as much as I can on media rumours I hear to have guys going as accurately as possible to roughly the clubs or in roughly the range they are expected to go.



I don't see Durdin as a mobile ruckman at AFL level, no. He could play some relief ruck as required as Jake Carlisle did for a period during the year but otherwise he needs to develop into a key position player. 197cm is just not tall enough for a ruckman. Blicavs is a unique and more the exception to the rule with his rare endurance making him effective. Durdin through the ruck competes well enough, can find the ball and push back or forward which are all positive traits for the position, but at AFL level he'll get dominated at the centre bounces and at stoppages around the ground with guys at AFL level much taller and stronger by position.

If Durdin wants to find a role it's either key defence or key forward, or he'll struggle.

Ryder would be another exception.

 

[Knightmare]

Ryder would be another exception.

Durdin lacks the athleticism of Ryder.

Ryder is the exception rather than the rule. We've historically if you look back at many of those drafts, particularly in the early 00s seen so many sub 200cm ruckmen taken early draft and fail completely. It's not a model any club should follow.

 

[master bate]

I just feel if the Tigers pass on Wright now, in 5 years we will really be regretting it.
If he is there at 12 do you think the tigers will take him?

The problem I have with you guys taking Wright is it likely sends another of Vickery, Hampson, McBean or Griffiths to the scrap heap (where a couple are likely heading already). When you add the development time and draft pick numbers to those guys it's really shooting yourself in the foot. Top 10, top 20 and early 30's picks to scrap for at least a couple of those guys I'd say. Plus Wright will need games and sub par form to battle through. It's why talls are much easier to justify drafting lower or investing early picks in when you're at the start of a rebuild. Meanwhile you see someone like Duggan or Weller who could be best 22 in 1-2 years improving another side.

It's why recruiters are paid the big (medium) bucks to pick the best available even when you're a top 8 side needing some immediate improvement to add to a core that's peaking over the next 3 or so year (Maric, Rance, Deledio, Cotchin etc you know the names).

Who you can get with later picks probably influences it. If you are confident of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds then I guess you can invest more in the sliding forward/ruck with some high level ability.

 

[Stylo]

The problem I have with you guys taking Wright is it likely sends another of Vickery, Hampson, McBean or Griffiths to the scrap heap (where a couple are likely heading already). When you add the development time and draft pick numbers to those guys it's really shooting yourself in the foot. Top 10, top 20 and early 30's picks to scrap for at least a couple of those guys I'd say. Plus Wright will need games and sub par form to battle through. It's why talls are much easier to justify drafting lower or investing early picks in when you're at the start of a rebuild. Meanwhile you see someone like Duggan or Weller who could be best 22 in 1-2 years improving another side.

It's why recruiters are paid the big (medium) bucks to pick the best available even when you're a top 8 side needing some immediate improvement to add to a core that's peaking over the next 3 or so year (Maric, Rance, Deledio, Cotchin etc you know the names).

Who you can get with later picks probably influences it. If you are confident of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds then I guess you can invest more in the sliding forward/ruck with some high level ability.

Good post, I agree.

 

[captain cotch 9]

The problem I have with you guys taking Wright is it likely sends another of Vickery, Hampson, McBean or Griffiths to the scrap heap (where a couple are likely heading already). When you add the development time and draft pick numbers to those guys it's really shooting yourself in the foot. Top 10, top 20 and early 30's picks to scrap for at least a couple of those guys I'd say. Plus Wright will need games and sub par form to battle through. It's why talls are much easier to justify drafting lower or investing early picks in when you're at the start of a rebuild. Meanwhile you see someone like Duggan or Weller who could be best 22 in 1-2 years improving another side.

It's why recruiters are paid the big (medium) bucks to pick the best available even when you're a top 8 side needing some immediate improvement to add to a core that's peaking over the next 3 or so year (Maric, Rance, Deledio, Cotchin etc you know the names).

Who you can get with later picks probably influences it. If you are confident of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds then I guess you can invest more in the sliding forward/ruck with some high level ability.

I just think we need to take the best avaliable at our first pick.
If its Wright then take him.
Maric has 2-3 max. Hampson will be gone by the end of this year.
Vickery can play ruck and Griffiths can swing between CHF and CHB with a pinch hit in the ruck.
Yes we did give up a pick in the 30's for Hampson but after compos i think it droped to a pick in the 40's in a week draft. No great loss IMO.
If Wright did get to the Tigers he will be able to play in the VFL for a solid 2 years without needing to play AFL.

 

[Tex200]

The problem I have with you guys taking Wright is it likely sends another of Vickery, Hampson, McBean or Griffiths to the scrap heap (where a couple are likely heading already). When you add the development time and draft pick numbers to those guys it's really shooting yourself in the foot. Top 10, top 20 and early 30's picks to scrap for at least a couple of those guys I'd say. Plus Wright will need games and sub par form to battle through. It's why talls are much easier to justify drafting lower or investing early picks in when you're at the start of a rebuild. Meanwhile you see someone like Duggan or Weller who could be best 22 in 1-2 years improving another side.

It's why recruiters are paid the big (medium) bucks to pick the best available even when you're a top 8 side needing some immediate improvement to add to a core that's peaking over the next 3 or so year (Maric, Rance, Deledio, Cotchin etc you know the names).

Who you can get with later picks probably influences it. If you are confident of talent in the 2nd and 3rd rounds then I guess you can invest more in the sliding forward/ruck with some high level ability.

Good post, I agree if he gets to 12 he will keep going.

With Brisbane out of the picture there does not seem to be a stand out team that needs him. If he gets past GWS early I think he will fall to either 14, 16 or 17

 

[Punchy Demons]

I just think we need to take the best avaliable at our first pick.
If its Wright then take him.
Maric has 2-3 max. Hampson will be gone by the end of this year.
Vickery can play ruck and Griffiths can swing between CHF and CHB with a pinch hit in the ruck.
Yes we did give up a pick in the 30's for Hampson but after compos i think it droped to a pick in the 40's in a week draft. No great loss IMO.
If Wright did get to the Tigers he will be able to play in the VFL for a solid 2 years without needing to play AFL.

Pretty sure you gave up pick 28 for Hampson, Blues on traded that pick to Brisbane in exchange for Docherty & Brisbane used pick 28 in the draft for kid named......

Lewis Taylor!

(Rising Star Winner)

 

[captain cotch 9]

Pretty sure you gave up pick 28 for Hampson, Blues on traded that pick to Brisbane in exchange for Docherty & Brisbane used pick 28 in the draft for kid named......

Lewis Taylor!

(Rising Star Winner)

Actually.....Carlton traded it to Sydney for Everitt....good try buddy

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Good post, I agree if he gets to 12 he will keep going.

With Brisbane out of the picture there does not seem to be a stand out team that needs him. If he gets past GWS early I think he will fall to either 14, 16 or 17

I don't think Wright will get past Geelong but if he did Freo would be silly not to take him, their biggest needs are key position players at both ends and if they play him primarily as a key forward it would suit them well.

 

[Punchy Demons]

Actually.....Carlton traded it to Sydney for Everitt....good try buddy

I'm wrong it wasn't #28 that you traded that eventually netted the lions Taylor.

It was pick #32 you traded for Hampson. (Which was originally 28 but became 32 after 4 x compo picks). Blues then traded their 2nd rnd pick #33 to Brisbane in exchange for Docherty. Brisbane went to the draft with #33 & selected Tom Cutler.

The Everitt trade involved swapping #39 for #32 which netted the swans -George Hewitt & the Blues - Cameron Giles

 

[captain cotch 9]

I'm wrong it wasn't #28 that you traded that eventually netted the lions Taylor.

It was pick #32 you traded for Hampson. (Which was originally 28 but became 32 after 4 x compo picks). Blues then traded their 2nd rnd pick #33 to Brisbane in exchange for Docherty. Brisbane went to the draft with #33 & selected Tom Cutler.

The Everitt trade involved swapping #39 for #32 which netted the swans -George Hewitt & the Blues - Cameron Giles

thats right.....and if i was a melbourne supporter I wouldnt be giving anyone else shit for trading/drafting for a few years...

 

[Tex200]

I don't think Wright will get past Geelong but if he did Freo would be silly not to take him, their biggest needs are key position players at both ends and if they play him primarily as a key forward it would suit them well.

I thought you guys were pretty well stocked with talls?

I assumed Freo would already have Apeness developing so a KPD was their big need.

Anyway be interesting to watch.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I thought you guys were pretty well stocked with talls?

I assumed Freo would already have Apeness developing so a KPD was their big need.

Anyway be interesting to watch.

KPD might be their biggest need given this is probably McPharlin's last year and they delisted Smith but they could use talls at both ends, probably why they like Durdin with his versatility.

Geelong it depends whether we want a ruck or a forward. We are very well stocked with tall forwards, not a need, but rucks we have McIntosh who will be 31 and Simpson after his 4 back surgeries will probably be a fail for medical reasons. Blicavs has developed very well in the ruck but ideally he is not a no1 ruck at afl level and has more use elsewhere, he is only playing frontline ruck because we are thin in that area. Watching Goldstein slaughter us in that final shows after those two our rucks are very thin. Now who knows we may be planning to use Stanley there but ruck is probably one of our biggest needs, along with midfield, so if we consider Wright can be a high level ruck we will definitely take him.

 

[Richo83]

I just feel if the Tigers pass on Wright now, in 5 years we will really be regretting it.
If he is there at 12 do you think the tigers will take him?

I doubt it on both fronts. I think Wright is an unproven forward prospect, and his rucking, while good, will probably be inferior to Grundy's. At the moment, Wright is all about promise but I'm wary about picking ruckmen so young, often the gun ruckmen aren't the ones who star at junior levels, but eventually click later on. Which means that it makes more sense to wait until you have a genuine prospect at around the age of 22 or so. If he plays for another club, trade for him. Maric was traded in 2011 and turned out to be a great trade, that will never happen again right? But it has, Martin, Hickey, McEvoy, Mumford, Longer, Giles and Ryder have been traded in the past 3 years, and are all decent trades, which indicates that if a club is looking for a good ruckman, they just trade for one. Just look at sides like Hawthorn and Sydney, they don't use their early picks for ruckmen, they trade for them. The way ruckmen work out, clubs mainly use one ruckman and have a few others as backup. That means that a few clubs have ruckmen who are on the list but aren't really needed. Clubs are perfectly capable of looking for these players and trading for them. On the other hand, trying to prize a decent midfielder from a team is tough. If you're a decent midfielder who isn't getting games, you're probably not that decent. Which means that most good midfielders are cemented in a starting 22. Of course there are exceptions, but a gun ruckman is probably the easiest spot on a list to fill and one of the easiest positions to trade for. Which is why Richmond should trade for rucks, and draft midfielders.

 

[Richo83]

I just think we need to take the best avaliable at our first pick.
If its Wright then take him.
Maric has 2-3 max. Hampson will be gone by the end of this year.
Vickery can play ruck and Griffiths can swing between CHF and CHB with a pinch hit in the ruck.
Yes we did give up a pick in the 30's for Hampson but after compos i think it droped to a pick in the 40's in a week draft. No great loss IMO.
If Wright did get to the Tigers he will be able to play in the VFL for a solid 2 years without needing to play AFL.

Can't Richmond trade for a ruckman when Maric starts to decline? Some of these ruckmen I mentioned came pretty cheap, Mumford was traded for pick 35. Admittedly it was unusual circumstances, but still. McEvoy was traded for pick 18 and a B grade flanker (a type of player which is very replaceable and easy to find). Longer was traded for effectively pick 25. The other thing is that if Richmond drafts Wright, but doesn't play him for the first 3 years or so, there's a big chance he'll demand a trade to a team who needs a ruckman, meaning Richmond ends up losing him anyway and Richmond is forced to engineer a trade which manages to ensure they don't lose out.

 

[Tiger68]

KM, if GWS take Pickett at 4 and Geelong opt for a tall, is De Goey reaching 12 a possibility? Seems to me he would be our ideal selection at 12. Any feel for what the RFC preference would be Weller\De Goey?

 

[Punchy Demons]

thats right.....and if i was a melbourne supporter I wouldnt be giving anyone else shit for trading/drafting for a few years...

It wasn't giving you shit, as you put it! Touchy! touchy!!!
I was just pointing out it wasn't the speculative pick that you first posted as being in the 40's!

As for being a Melbourne supporter, it's irrelevant. I like a hawks, swans, pies or Giants fan can post about the supposed 'value' of trades. Just because my club hasn't drafted well in the last decade doesn't make my opinion any less valid then yours or any other clubs supporters! I can never understand why fans attack other clubs fans on that basis to 'prove' their argument?

Anyway, that's enough of derailing KM's great work!

 

[Yabadoo22]

Hey knightmare. All the talk is that Paul ahern is looming as a big slider. Any chance at all a player of his quality could be taken at the saints pick 21/22? If not which team is it he slips to furtherst??

 

[Tiger Claw]

It wasn't giving you shit, as you put it! Touchy! touchy!!!
I was just pointing out it wasn't the speculative pick that you first posted as being in the 40's!

As for being a Melbourne supporter, it's irrelevant. I like a hawks, swans, pies or Giants fan can post about the supposed 'value' of trades. Just because my club hasn't drafted well in the last decade doesn't make my opinion any less valid then yours or any other clubs supporters! I can never understand why fans attack other clubs fans on that basis to 'prove' their argument?

Anyway, that's enough of derailing KM's great work!

Actually if it wasn't for your 'Lewis Taylor - Rising Star' comment you might have been believable. As it was you weren't.

 

[tigs2010]

Actually if it wasn't for your 'Lewis Taylor - Rising Star' comment you might have been believable. As it was you weren't.

In his defense a heap of dumb arse journos have been sprouting that shit all year even after being called out on it. Easy mistake to make when it's getting rammed down our throat all the time

 

[Richo83]

The other reason why Richmond should draft a midfielder is that Richmond's midfield depth is fairly poor. Looking beyond the best 22, Richmond's best midfielders are guys like Thomas, Grigg, Lennon, Arnot and Hunt. Thomas is slow and old, Grigg has been exposed for his lack of pace and kicking issues, Lennon is unproven and is still developing a tank, and Arnot is also very green. That leaves Hunt who has been delisted from his previous club, I'd prefer another 3-4 smalls, especially someone who can take over Newman's role. If Richmond wants to pick up a ruckman, use a later pick to pick up a project or a state leaguer.