Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Danger Zone]

Think you're pretty spot on for most of it, but there's little chance of Mckenzie getting past Adelaide at 35.

 

[Knightmare]

May be a stupid question but, next week Knighters, will you be watching the draft and, if so, would you be focusing more on Collingwood's picks or your phantom draft and seeing how many you get right?

Also, is Frosty getting elevated?

On another matter, I hope I don't miss the first 10 picks being unveiled like I did last year.

Is it 6:30pm, 7:00pm or 7:30pm that the coverage starts?

I don't believe Frost is getting elevated. It's less a case of he isn't deserving of being elevated, I have him as a starting best 22 player next year, but it's more so just with so many players added during trade week it has left him there.

Scharenberg will be on the long term injury list again this year seemingly out for the season I imagine so Frost can still get games again next season anyway through that avenue.

I won't be at the draft. I imagine online somewhere there will be information regarding the coverage start time. I'll probably just be tracking the AFL.com draft tracker from home unless they have some live stream happening online somewhere.

Hey KM, if we were to pick up De Goey could you see him potentially developing into a defender or is he suited more to playing up the ground in the midfield or half forward?

A defender is an interesting vision. Possible, I don't recall seeing him back at any stage but I see him at this point as best suited as a rotational mid/fwd.

Would WCE's preferences look something like this?
1. DeGoey/Laverde/Pickett slider (unlikely but you never know)
2. Cockatoo (IF up for the risk)
3. Weller
4. Duggan

I'd agree that the preference would be Pickett/Laverde/De Goey if any of them are available.

After that probably Weller/Cockatoo in whatever order WCE see it as being would be in that conversation.

Duggan looks to be going to GC at 8 and Pickett probably to GWS at 4.

Think you're pretty spot on for most of it, but there's little chance of Mckenzie getting past Adelaide at 35.

Could be right and Adelaide would be a strong destination for R.McKenzie with the clubs proven development of talls over the years.

 

[gotassieboys]

While I will admit a Tasmanian bias I reckon that Josh Watts might create some interest come draft time.

The kid moves well and at 194 cm he shows to me an enormous amount of upside.

The majority of punters would have Josh McGuiness ahead of Watts, but I reckon Watts might surprise a few "experts".

The talent pool from Tasmania in 2014 is thin with only the "Josh" boys a likely pick-up in the draft/rookie.

 

[Stylo]

Cal Twomey says he wouldn't be surprised if R McKenzie went somewhere in the 50-70 range.

 

[blueiris]

While I will admit a Tasmanian bias I reckon that Josh Watts might create some interest come draft time.

The kid moves well and at 194 cm he shows to me an enormous amount of upside.

The majority of punters would have Josh McGuiness ahead of Watts, but I reckon Watts might surprise a few "experts".

The talent pool from Tasmania in 2014 is thin with only the "Josh" boys a likely pick-up in the draft/rookie.

Josh Watts has been linked to Brisbane according Twomey

 

[aussierulesrules]

How do you compare Apeness, who went at pick 17 last year, and big Reece?

 

[Knightmare]

While I will admit a Tasmanian bias I reckon that Josh Watts might create some interest come draft time.

The kid moves well and at 194 cm he shows to me an enormous amount of upside.

The majority of punters would have Josh McGuiness ahead of Watts, but I reckon Watts might surprise a few "experts".

The talent pool from Tasmania in 2014 is thin with only the "Josh" boys a likely pick-up in the draft/rookie.

There seem to be a few Tassie viewers keen on Watts. I haven't been blown away by what I've seen but it will be interesting to see if he is picked up on draft day.

 

[Knightmare]

Cal Twomey says he wouldn't be surprised if R McKenzie went somewhere in the 50-70 range.

I read that with interest and noted that on the Pies board.

All the better for Collingwood at 48. Or St Kilda at 41 or whoever else might like a genuine go to key forward. If this really is where clubs rate Reece then they're in my view getting the evaluation of Reece completely wrong.

How do you compare Apeness, who went at pick 17 last year, and big Reece?

Reece for me is the better player.

To put it in perspective. The most goals Apeness has achieved in a game in the TAC is 5 with his next best hauls being two games of 3 goals. His best mark total is 9 in a game with his next bests being two hauls of 8 marks.

McKenzie on the other hand had a best haul of 10 goals (his next best was 7). He has also had a season best of 13 marks (twise) with his next best being 12 marks in a game.

With Reece the sample size is of 10 games, of Apeness the sample size is of 14 games.

In both cases they both showed improvement over the course of the season but McKenzie experienced more rapid improvement if you were to graph their stats.

Additionally being just being bigger and stronger than everyone else McKenzie athletically tests better than Apeness with McKenzie testing of those who will be drafted equal best in the 20m sprint and in the top few in the vertical jump. Add that to his ability to take a mark at the highest point consistently and take those marks v contact and McKenzie for me is the clearly better of the two.

Some might say "but Apeness can play through the ruck." Apeness had a season best of 18 hitouts, McKenzie in the first half of the season when he also played some relief minutes through the ruck also had a game with 18 hitouts. So actually finding an area whereby Apeness has an edge of McKenzie other than a few extra cm I'd be struggling.

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

Any talk about Matt Panos getting taken as a rookie?

 

[aussierulesrules]

Reece for me is the better player...

Cheers, this was pretty much what I was thinking, so if Apeness went at 17 I find it hugely unlikely that Reece will slip to 70, or something like that, unless there are some big skeletons in his closet! I note that Emma Q has said that the clubs that like him really like him and the ones who don't, really don't, so it may just be that Cal has mainly been talking to the ones who don't.

 

[Knightmare]

Any talk about Matt Panos getting taken as a rookie?

No guarantee but is considered to be in the mix mostly as a rookie.

Cheers, this was pretty much what I was thinking, so if Apeness went at 17 I find it hugely unlikely that Reece will slip to 70, or something like that, unless there are some big skeletons in his closet! I note that Emma Q has said that the clubs that like him really like him and the ones who don't, really don't, so it may just be that Cal has mainly been talking to the ones who don't.

That's entirely possible.

 

[blueiris]

I have noticed that you have updated your draft but still have us taking Jason Castagna
do you think he will suit Leppers game not to mention he's a Collingwood supporter nice one

 

[TerryWallet]

Cheers, this was pretty much what I was thinking, so if Apeness went at 17 I find it hugely unlikely that Reece will slip to 70, or something like that, unless there are some big skeletons in his closet! I note that Emma Q has said that the clubs that like him really like him and the ones who don't, really don't, so it may just be that Cal has mainly been talking to the ones who don't.

I forget who it was, either Twomey, Anderson, Carmody etc, but it was mentioned a few days ago that there are question marks over McKenzie as an individual over and above his football ability.

It wasn't overt or gone into in any detail, but was an interesting comment.

No hint at personality or injury concern etc....but the comment was made as though "i'm letting something slip here, but i'm not saying anything more".

Whoever it was could be talking out their arse...i dunno...but it was said.

 

[aussierulesrules]

OK, cheers. I guess we'll find out soon enough. If there is something like that to it he may not go in the first 50.

 

[Richo83]

With McKenzie is really depends what you focus on. Do you focus on the fact that he's huge, can take a contested mark, can kick bags of goals, has really hit his straps late when he was played up forward, or do you focus on the lack of agility, athleticism, ground ability, or the fact that he kicked those goals against weak sides? It depends how you read his performances.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

Would WCE's preferences look something like this?
1. DeGoey/Laverde/Pickett slider (unlikely but you never know)
2. Cockatoo (IF up for the risk)
3. Weller
4. Duggan

I reckon this is pretty close, but I'd make a couple of changes. Duggan for example is right up their list, despite his lack of pace. It's very difficult to gauge their interest in Laverde and De Goey, as they are thought to be off the board by #11, the former especially.

I think their preferences would look like this:

1. Pickett
2. Laverde
3. Duggan
4. Cockatoo/Weller - this is the great unknown
5. De Goey
6. Ahern

 

[aussierulesrules]

I believe they are very, very keen on De Goey if he makes it through.

 

[Smoocher]

Cal Twomey says he wouldn't be surprised if R McKenzie went somewhere in the 50-70 range.

Can guarantee he will not slide past 30.

 

[DarlinCatchemnt]

I believe they are very, very keen on De Goey if he makes it through.

Yep, this may be true. Just guessing as I haven't heard a word about him specifically.

 

[Knightmare]

I have noticed that you have updated your draft but still have us taking Jason Castagna
do you think he will suit Leppers game not to mention he's a Collingwood supporter nice one

I'm not aware with too many which teams they support. If Castagna likes Collingwood then perhaps he'll enjoy playing alongside Collingwood premiership player Dayne Beams. Castagna with his pace just makes sense.

Some recent word Josh Watts and Josh McGuinness from Tassie might be in the mix but with McGuinness pretty similar to Cutler, Watts is probably the better chance of the two for Brisbane.

I forget who it was, either Twomey, Anderson, Carmody etc, but it was mentioned a few days ago that there are question marks over McKenzie as an individual over and above his football ability.

It wasn't overt or gone into in any detail, but was an interesting comment.

No hint at personality or injury concern etc....but the comment was made as though "i'm letting something slip here, but i'm not saying anything more".

Whoever it was could be talking out their arse...i dunno...but it was said.

I'm not aware of the article, but I may just not have seen it.

With McKenzie every I have observed is that he is a jump rat. Is working hard on the track to get his athletic traits up to such a high level. He also seems from all reports to have a real pride in his performance, perhaps get down on himself slightly when things aren't going his way ala Trav Cloke but with that pride in his performance he has a real hunger to improve from what I can gather.

There could be something there, but overall even if there is something slight I wouldn't be concerned based around the positives I have heard.

With McKenzie is really depends what you focus on. Do you focus on the fact that he's huge, can take a contested mark, can kick bags of goals, has really hit his straps late when he was played up forward, or do you focus on the lack of agility, athleticism, ground ability, or the fact that he kicked those goals against weak sides? It depends how you read his performances.

One interesting factoid re. R.McKenzie. And I relatively consider him immobile in the sense that because he is so explosive and there is so much size on his frame that he doesn't really have the breaks to stop quickly and turn on a dime. But regarding McKenzie's agility he actually tested in the best 50% (in the 54 percentile to be precise) at the draft combine with a 8.59 second in the agility test.

And same story regarding athleticism. He scored in the 99th percentile or equal second (with Pickett and Markov) after one of the American recruits over 20m. Then in the standing vertical jump he finished top 10 with an excellent 72cm which is in the 87 percentile. So from an athleticism standpoint he far outperforms his peers.

But the intent behind your post is right. There are from all reports greatly varied views regarding R.McKenzie and different clubs will be interpreting his numbers throughout the year, his numbers throughout the draft combine and his performances throughout the year very differently.

*The data regarding these testing numbers are courtesy of BrianSpeaking who did a terrific job in providing me with the complete testing data from the national combine.

 

[aussierulesrules]

He also scored just as well over 5m and 10m as he did over 20m, which may come as a surprise to those who have suggested he isn't all that quick off the mark. He may not be in a game, but his testing would suggest that he has the potential to be. His handspan was also considerably bigger than the likes of McCartin, Moore and Durdin, which could help explain why he is so strong overhead.

There is a hell of a lot to work with there and I would have thought that is what the development teams at clubs are there for.

 

[Knightmare]

He also scored just as well over 5m and 10m as he did over 20m, which may come as a surprise to those who have suggested he isn't all that quick off the mark. He may not be in a game, but his testing would suggest that he has the potential to be. His handspan was also considerably bigger than the likes of McCartin, Moore and Durdin, which could help explain why he is so strong overhead.

There is a hell of a lot to work with there and I would have thought that is what the development teams at clubs are there for.

1.01 over 5m (96th percentile), 1.71 sec over 10m (95th percentile), 2.87sec over 20m (99th percentile). So pace isn't an issue with R.McKenzie. He can improve his endurance but athletically that's the primary area of weakness.

Reece's repeat speed also is another terrific area for him, as much as he doesn't have the breaks to stop and turn on a dime. He had a 24.88sec repeat sprint time which is in the 76 percentile and another terrific result athletically.

Then his handspan is 25.4cm (97 percentile) - equal with Peter Wright. The only guy with bigger hands is now Brisbane player through the academy program Liam Dawson.

 

[Glenny83]

Hi Knightmare,

Do you much about Jonathon Beech from West Adelaide? Apparently he's training with the crows...not sure how much I believe this.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Yes indeed, Dawson's hands are freakishly big, especially for someone not super-tall - getting to Stewie "Buckets" Loewe levels! Ought to be able to carry the ball one-handed like Kouta and Brennan with ease. Petracca's 5th biggest, behind those 3 and one other and again considerably bigger than the likes of McCartin, Moore and Durdin, which would help explain how he is so incredibly strong overhead and makes clunking those overhead marks look so easy.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,

Do you much about Jonathon Beech from West Adelaide? Apparently he's training with the crows...not sure how much I believe this.

I'm not aware of Adelaide's permission to train list. Beech has been around at state league level for a while now. There are others I like more from the SANFL but perhaps as a rookie he is someone Adelaide are looking at.