Prediction Ladder Prediction 2022

kulak

Premiership Player
May 16, 2006
4,023
5,376
Sydney!!!
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
GWS
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dude316

Club Legend
Apr 26, 2009
2,837
14,480
The Armada Room
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt
There was one betting company William Hill that offered $100m for the correct ladder position for the year.

:$

Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.
 

arrowman

Brownlow Medallist
Jul 27, 2004
13,332
16,377
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.
6.402E15 - so yes, quite a large number!
 
Jun 23, 2016
14,847
13,555
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Essendon
Richmond
St Kilda
Geelong
GWS
Fremantle
Carlton
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Hawthorn
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Adelaide
 
I did this once and I was horrible that time. So here goes

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. GWS
4. Richmond
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Port Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. Geelong

9. Sydney
10. St Kilda
11. Carlton
12. West Coast
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. North Melbourne
16. Adelaide
17. Gold Coast
18. Hawthorn

I reckon there's a huge gulf between Fremantle and the bottom 5 teams. Hawthorn close to having a historically bad list and no genius coach any more
 

BrissyCrow

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2011
4,405
4,637
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg & Most Other Tiger Teams
Who really knows. Too many ifs and buts. Struggled everywhere but I found the bottom four the hardest to pick. But here goes.

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
GWS
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Geelong

Sydney
Carlton
Fremantle
West Coast
Adelaide
St Kilda
Gold Coast
North
Collingwood
Hawthorn
 

George Kramer

Premium Platinum
Aug 30, 2021
14,184
25,473
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
WB
Port
Lions
Cats
Essendon
GWS
Sydney

Carlton
Richmond
Freo
Saints
Pies
Adelaide
North
Hawks
West Coast
Gold Coast

Port to lose another prelim
 
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Mar 21, 2016
73,855
116,782
Down South Corvus Tristis
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt, White Sox
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
West Coast
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8
 
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George Kramer

Premium Platinum
Aug 30, 2021
14,184
25,473
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8
Ports older players have one more reasonable year in them to keep them in the 8, but how high you are right depend on the kids. The unknown is the impact of another finals failure, that has to play with their psyche, plus will Wines produce another year like that? Unlikely. They won’t be a serious contender as they didn’t address their midfield weakness and their older players are getting older.
 

PoholkMe10

Senior List
Sep 7, 2020
169
385
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Dallas Cowboys
Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.

Yes but thats assuming ladder position is completely random.

If we were to assume the average footy fan could correctly group teams into the top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6, with the order of teams within these groups being random (a somewhat more realistic proposition, as some teams are clearly stronger than others).

Using this we have a 6!, or 1/720 chance of correctly ordering any one group.

Then the probability of correctly ordering all 3 groups (using a binomial distribution with probability of success being 1/720) is 2.6792e-09 or 1 in 373 million - which is still less likely than winning the lottery.
 

BrissyCrow

Premium Platinum
Mar 20, 2011
4,405
4,637
Brisbane
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Glenelg & Most Other Tiger Teams
Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8

I agree. For me I am also influenced by my loathing of the club and I tend to push them down the list because I dont want them to win another flag especially as they would then be able claim bragging rights to two premierships just like us.
 
Mar 28, 2011
32,273
30,583
Pluto
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Reds, Lakers, Gold City, Knights
1: Melbourne
2: Brisbane
3: GWS
4: Western Bulldogs
5: Essendon
6: Richmond
7: Port Adelaide
8: Fremantle

9: Geelong
10: Carlton
11: Sydney
12: St Kilda
13: Adelaide
14: North Melbourne
15: West Coast
16: Gold Coast
17: Collingwood
18: Hawthorn
 

WeeBlake

Club Legend
Aug 5, 2006
2,989
3,806
Melbourne
AFL Club
Adelaide
Brisbane
Bulldogs
GWS
Melbourne
Port
Richmond
Sydney
Carlton

Geelong
Essendon
Saints
West Coast
Freo
Gold Coast
North
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks

Couple of punts here, chiefly Carlton, but they could get a bounce from their new coach and have a very good young spine, and a decent midfield, especially if Cripps can recover.

GWS were very impressive late last year and still stacked with talent.
 
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