Prediction Ladder Prediction 2022

[kulak]

Post your predicted ladder for the 2022 AFL season here!

There will be a score at the end.

2021 ladder prediction results
2020 ladder prediction results
2019 ladder prediction results
2018 ladder prediction results

Can you beat last year's top 5?
~1. Dirty Bird - 64
~1. JPetro83 - 64
~1. Carmo - 64
4. kulak - 66
5. WeeBlake - 70

 

[GROTTO]

There was one betting company William Hill that offered $100m for the correct ladder position for the year.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

1 Brisbane
2 Bulldogs
3 Melbourne
4 Richmond
5 GWS
6 Essendon
7 Geelong
8 St Kilda

9 Poort
10 Fremantle
11 Sydney
12 Carlton
13 West Coast
14 Adelaide
15 Collingwood
16 Gold Coast
17 North Melbourne
18 Hawthorn

 

[dude316]

There was one betting company William Hill that offered $100m for the correct ladder position for the year.

Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.

 

[arrowman]

Is it after minor round, or finals?

 

[arrowman]

Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.

6.402E15 - so yes, quite a large number!

 

[kulak]

Is it after minor round, or finals?

Finals. Same order that draft is based upon.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Melbourne
Bulldogs
GWS
Brisbane
Essendon
Geelong
Richmond
Sydney

Port
Carlton
West Coast
Adelaide
North Melbourne
St Kilda
Fremantle
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Hawthorn

 

[pjcrows]

Melbourne
Bulldogs
Essendon
Port
Sydney
Brisbane
GWS
Fremantle

Carlton
Geelong
Richmond
St Kilda
Adelaide
West Coast
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Hawthorn

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Essendon
Port
Sydney
GWS
St.Kilda

Geelong
Carlton
Fremantle
West Coast
Richmond
Collingwood
Adelaide
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
North

 

[1970crow]

Melbourne
Dogs
Tigers
Lions
Cats
Port
Dons
Saints
Swans
Freo
Eagles
GWS
Blues
Suns
Crows
Hawks
Pies
Roos

 

[Thylacinus]

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
Essendon
Geelong
Crows
Port
GWS
Carlton
Sydney
Fremantle
Richmond
St Kilda
West Coast
Gold Coast
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Hawthorn

 

[WetCrow1991]

Melbourne
Sydney
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Essendon
Richmond
St Kilda
Geelong
GWS
Fremantle
Carlton
Port Adelaide
West Coast
Hawthorn
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Gold Coast
Adelaide

 

[latinoheat]

1. Bulldogs
2. Brisbane
3. Port
4. Melbourne
5. GWS
6. Essendon
7. Richmond
8. Geelong

9. Sydney
10. West Coast
11. Crows
12. Carlton
13. St kilda
14. Freo
15. Collingwood
16. North Melbourne
17. Hawks
18. Gold Coast

 

[Scorpus]

I did this once and I was horrible that time. So here goes

1. Melbourne
2. Brisbane
3. GWS
4. Richmond
5. Western Bulldogs
6. Port Adelaide
7. Essendon
8. Geelong

9. Sydney
10. St Kilda
11. Carlton
12. West Coast
13. Fremantle
14. Collingwood
15. North Melbourne
16. Adelaide
17. Gold Coast
18. Hawthorn

I reckon there's a huge gulf between Fremantle and the bottom 5 teams. Hawthorn close to having a historically bad list and no genius coach any more

 

[BrissyCrow]

Who really knows. Too many ifs and buts. Struggled everywhere but I found the bottom four the hardest to pick. But here goes.

Bulldogs
Melbourne
Brisbane
GWS
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Geelong

Sydney
Carlton
Fremantle
West Coast
Adelaide
St Kilda
Gold Coast
North
Collingwood
Hawthorn

 

[Velvet George]

Melbourne
WB
Port
Lions
Cats
Essendon
GWS
Sydney

Carlton
Richmond
Freo
Saints
Pies
Adelaide
North
Hawks
West Coast
Gold Coast

Port to lose another prelim

 

[GreyCrow]

Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
West Coast
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8

 

[Velvet George]

Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8

Ports older players have one more reasonable year in them to keep them in the 8, but how high you are right depend on the kids. The unknown is the impact of another finals failure, that has to play with their psyche, plus will Wines produce another year like that? Unlikely. They won’t be a serious contender as they didn’t address their midfield weakness and their older players are getting older.

 

[PoholkMe10]

Who are the maths guys around here?
Is the likelihood of putting 18 teams in the correct order more or less than picking 6 numbers out of a possible 45 like the xlotto?

To work out how many possible combinations of 18 teams in the correct order is 18x17x16x15… isn’t it? That’s a huge number.

Yes but thats assuming ladder position is completely random.

If we were to assume the average footy fan could correctly group teams into the top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6, with the order of teams within these groups being random (a somewhat more realistic proposition, as some teams are clearly stronger than others).

Using this we have a 6!, or 1/720 chance of correctly ordering any one group.

Then the probability of correctly ordering all 3 groups (using a binomial distribution with probability of success being 1/720) is 2.6792e-09 or 1 in 373 million - which is still less likely than winning the lottery.

 

[BrissyCrow]

Melbourne
Brisbane
Bulldogs
St Kilda
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon

GWS
Fremantle
Richmond
Adelaide
Carlton
West Coast
Gold Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn

Top 7 should be close - Saints/Port only question

Next 4 are contenders for 8th

Bottom 7 have 5040 different finish positions available and it will come down to the last 3 games to determine what the final order is

I think Adelaide could win anywhere from 5 to 10 games - hopefully there is upward improvement

Port are a team I cant accurately predict. I think they could be on the edge of a cliff. If Butters, Rozee , Duursma and other draftees can take over the team then a top 5 finish is in reach. If the kids struggle then they could plummet outside the 8

I agree. For me I am also influenced by my loathing of the club and I tend to push them down the list because I dont want them to win another flag especially as they would then be able claim bragging rights to two premierships just like us.

 

[relapse]

Bulldogs
Brisbane
Richmond
Melbourne
Geelong
West Coast
Port
St Kilda

Essendon
Sydney
GWS
Freo
Carlton
Adelaide
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Gold Coast
Hawthorn

 

[footy4ever]

Melbourne
Bulldogs
Brisbane
GWS
Sydney
Richmond
Geelong
Essendon

Port
Adelaide
Carlton
St Kilda
Fremantle
West Coast
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Hawthorn
Gold Coast

 

[Danger in Texas]

1: Melbourne
2: Brisbane
3: GWS
4: Western Bulldogs
5: Essendon
6: Richmond
7: Port Adelaide
8: Fremantle

9: Geelong
10: Carlton
11: Sydney
12: St Kilda
13: Adelaide
14: North Melbourne
15: West Coast
16: Gold Coast
17: Collingwood
18: Hawthorn

 

[WeeBlake]

Brisbane
Bulldogs
GWS
Melbourne
Port
Richmond
Sydney
Carlton

Geelong
Essendon
Saints
West Coast
Freo
Gold Coast
North
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks

Couple of punts here, chiefly Carlton, but they could get a bounce from their new coach and have a very good young spine, and a decent midfield, especially if Cripps can recover.

GWS were very impressive late last year and still stacked with talent.