Prediction Ladder predictions

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AFL Daily: Live rolling footy news from around Australia, June 15, 2018
EDITOR ON DUTY: SAM LANDSBERER
41 minutes ago
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HAWTHORN is favoured to receive just its second Friday night game for the season in Round 23 when it travels to the SCG to continue its fierce rivalry with Sydney.

The AFL will choose out of three possible match-ups for the final Friday night fixture of the season — Swans-Hawks, Port Adelaide-Essendon (Adelaide Oval) or Fremantle-Collingwood (Perth Stadium).

The Swans would prefer to host the Hawks on Saturday afternoon but could be forced onto the Friday night stage as the standout clash of the round.

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The Hawks could be playing for a place in the finals while the Swans could be shooting for top four.

The early forecast of Round 23 is an anti-climatic finish to the home-and-away season.

There is a chance the top nine teams could play the bottom nine teams and that would likely lead to several blowouts as aspiring finalists chase valuable percentage points.

Five of the Round 23 matches cannot be played on the Friday night because they feature teams which played on the previous Sunday.

The AFL gives clubs a minimum of six days between matches, outside of the annual Anzac Day and Anzac eve blockbusters.

If the Swans are locked into the Round 23 Friday night fixture they would have to play off consecutive six-day breaks.

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Hawthorn and Sydney played on Friday night in Round 8. Picture: Getty Images
While the AFL concedes that is not ideal, it is also not a deal breaker.

But the main reason Sydney would prefer to play on Saturday afternoon or twilight is to feature at a family-friendly time.

This year the Swans play eight night matches at the SCG and only one day and one twilight match at their home.

The league will consider the quality of matches, crowd sizes and TV ratings when determining the Round 23 games.

Oddly, the Hawks’ only Friday night game was their Round 8 loss to the Swans.

That night young Sydney forward Ben Ronke kicked seven goals in just his third game to command the Rising Star nomination.

Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson then sparked controversy by declaring Swans defenders were getting away with “blue murder” with illegal blocking tactics.

Clarkson discussed the tactics over a coffee with AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan and then dressed up as Swans coach John Longmire when he went down the Big Freeze slide on Queen’s Birthday.

If Essendon or Fremantle mounts a charge towards the top eight their games could overtake the Hawks-Swans clash as the Friday night favourite.

The only other possible option would be Geelong-Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium. But given the Suns’ continued plight that is considered no chance.

The pre-finals bye means likely finalists can be scheduled to play at any stage during Round 23.

Last year the AFL used the Round 23 Friday night game to farewell retiring Hawks legend Luke Hodge and Western Bulldogs champions Bob Murphy and Matthew Boyd.

Hodge then came out of retirement to play for Brisbane Lions.
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https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...8/news-story/197268a4613e7619e1fd89b04f819dd1
 
At this stage I think we will be in a fight for 6th -10th spot but likely to make the finals. Our draw is a dream and may end up being the main reason we make it. Hawks have had toughest draw so far but gets much easier now. I would lock them into finals. Geelong are vulnerable and a real chance to slip out of the 8 come seasons end. It looks like it will be really tight and a loss to one of the sides 11-18 could trip up any of the remaining 10 in the race. I think Essendon especially could upset some teams on the way in. They play 7 of the top 9 teams on the way in so will probably knock one or two off in that time.

Our match v NM could be pivotal and the key to if we play in Sept. If we assume we lose to Syd and Richmond then we need to win 2 of 3 against WCE, NM and PA. Given all these game are in Melbourne we are a good chance to do that.
 

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A few big games coming up over next 3 or 4 weeks that will help shape the 8. Port Adelaide V Melbourne this week. Richmond V Sydney and giants V Hawks next week. Sydney V Geelong, West Coast Vs Giants in round 16. If we win the next 3 games as we probably should (no certainties these days) we are a good chance to be top 4 at the end of round 16. Then it is up to us to hold onto it. I think Sydney and Geelong are vulvarable to a few losses in the run home. Both have tough draws. There are so many 50/50 games coming up that a ladder prediction is near on impossible. The giants have a good draw and will probably push someone out, same the Hawks. The crows are probably done, but if they can get some of there players back they could help us out by beating a few of the teams around us. They are capable of it when they are fit.
Going to be an awesome second half of the year. Every spot in the 8 is still up for grabs.
 
Gone Critical said:
At this stage I think we will be in a fight for 6th -10th spot but likely to make the finals. Our draw is a dream and may end up being the main reason we make it. Hawks have had toughest draw so far but gets much easier now. I would lock them into finals. Geelong are vulnerable and a real chance to slip out of the 8 come seasons end. It looks like it will be really tight and a loss to one of the sides 11-18 could trip up any of the remaining 10 in the race. I think Essendon especially could upset some teams on the way in. They play 7 of the top 9 teams on the way in so will probably knock one or two off in that time.

Our match v NM could be pivotal and the key to if we play in Sept. If we assume we lose to Syd and Richmond then we need to win 2 of 3 against WCE, NM and PA. Given all these game are in Melbourne we are a good chance to do that.
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I tend to follow the numbers after 7,8 even 10 games.
The odds now say we really should make it.

Also with ten games to go then realistically we need to break even or 5 wins 5 losses.
Then we have 13 wins and that pretty much means finals.

Surely we beat Carlton, Gold Coast, Brisbane and that’s 3 to add to the 8 being 11.

Hence based on that we then need 2 games from 7.
North Melbourne, Essendon look most likely (magic 13 wins) but why can’t we put Sydney, Port and some of the others to the sword? I’m not even scared to have a crack at Richmond again! Why not take them on?

I’m thinking 13 wins as a minimum and that Sir is finals.
 
domin8tors said:
if you look at the draw up until the end of Rd 16, we should actually be 3rd. as the other teams all play eachother who are around us and we play 3 bottom sides. so given that 3rd is ours to lose.
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I've done the ladder predictor 5 times over the last 3-4 weeks. Best is 2nd, worst is 5th....3 at 3rd.
 
So long as we make the 8 this year i'll be happy.

Don't think i could take a second half flop again.

Carn Pies, keep fighting the good fight!!!
 
Out of the next 10 games if we win,

8 or 9 or 10 games - we make top 4.

7 games with a good percentage - we MIGHT make top 4. Probably 5th-6th.

6 games - we finish anywhere between 5th-8th. Depends on our percentage.

5 games - we finish 8th - 11th. Probably miss finals with GWS finishing strongly.

4=> - we miss finals.

Lucky for us, we have 4 games we SHOULD win. Carlton, Essendon, Gold Coast and Brisbane.
North, Wc (Mcg) & Port (Mcg) are all 60/40 games.
Sydney(SCG), Richmond (Mcg) & Freo (Optus stadium) are 40/60 games.

Even if we win 3/6 games out of the “tight” games. We end up on 7 wins.

Which might see us in the top 4, but certainly 5th or 6th.
 

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Just did one of the ladder predictor generators on Squiggle Ladder Predictor and I got this :eek:

1. Richmond 16 6 0 134.7%
2. Collingwood 16 6 0 120.9%
3. Sydney 15 7 0 122.6%
4. West Coast 15 7 0 121.1%
5. Melbourne 15 7 0 117.3%
6. Port Adelaide 15 7 0 117.2%
7. Geelong 14 8 0 124.5%
8. North Melbourne 13 9 0 115.4%
9. GWS 12 9 1 109.0%
10. Hawthorn 12 10 0 113.9%
11. Essendon 11 11 0 92.9%
12. Adelaide 10 12 0 94.3%
13. Fremantle 9 13 0 93.7%
14. Western Bulldogs 7 15 0 75.1%
15. St Kilda 5 16 1 76.3%
16. Brisbane Lions 5 17 0 84.2%
17. Gold Coast 5 17 0 65.4%
18. Carlton 2 20 0 64.1%

Let's pray that this is correct.
 
magpienato said:
Just did one of the ladder predictor generators on Squiggle Ladder Predictor and I got this :eek:

1. Richmond 16 6 0 134.7%
2. Collingwood 16 6 0 120.9%
3. Sydney 15 7 0 122.6%
4. West Coast 15 7 0 121.1%
5. Melbourne 15 7 0 117.3%
6. Port Adelaide 15 7 0 117.2%
7. Geelong 14 8 0 124.5%
8. North Melbourne 13 9 0 115.4%
9. GWS 12 9 1 109.0%
10. Hawthorn 12 10 0 113.9%
11. Essendon 11 11 0 92.9%
12. Adelaide 10 12 0 94.3%
13. Fremantle 9 13 0 93.7%
14. Western Bulldogs 7 15 0 75.1%
15. St Kilda 5 16 1 76.3%
16. Brisbane Lions 5 17 0 84.2%
17. Gold Coast 5 17 0 65.4%
18. Carlton 2 20 0 64.1%

Let's pray that this is correct.
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I'd be happy to finish fourth and play Richmond at the MCG. A home game against an interstate team would be ideal but perhaps too much to ask.

As long as we dont have to travel to Perth, any other top four outcome would be ideal thanks!!!
 
History tells us 13 wins will almost guarantee finals action (and probably a home EF) and 16 wins (maybe 15) will probably get you into the top four.

Pies need to win 8 of the last 10 to make top four and 5 of the last 10 to play finals. Both very achievable.

History of eighth spot:

2017 12 wins and percentage
2016 12 and percentage
2015 13
2014 12
2013 12 (not counting Essendon being kicked out, Car played finals with 11 wins)
2012 14 (two win gap to 9th so 12 and percentage would have done it)
2011 11 and a half
2010 11 and percentage
2009 10 and a half (and that was a game and a half clear of ninth with nine wins...go figure)
2008 12
2007 12
2006 13 (two games clear)
2005 11 and a half
2004 12
2003 13
2002 11 and percentage
2001 12
2000 12

And fourth spot:
2017 15 (technically it was 14 and two draws)
2016 16 and percentage
2015 16
2014 16 (two games clear)
2013 15 and a half
2012 16
2011 17 (two and a half games clear)
2010 14
2009 15
2008 13 and percentage
2007 14
2006 14 and percentage
2005 14
2004 15
2003 14 and percentage
2002 13
2001 12
2000 14 ( a game and a half clear)
 
I think there are going to be a few surprises before the end of the season,on last nights form and with Kennedy and Darling missing
for a few weeks the Eagles might not be top 4 we may not either but the good thing about our season is we are getting the job done regardless of who is missing.

Nobody gave us a chance against the Dees but we blew them out of the water,if we bring that most weeks we will make top 4 and we have players to come back in and they have earn their spots this season.

This season has a good feel to it I read a post on the main board and it said this season has a 2010 feeling about it for Collingwood and I agree with that I don,t think we will fade this season.I sense we will get stronger and I think the players look happier than at any time over the last 4 or 5 seasons.
The belief is strong this season and we are closing the gap to the best sides.
 
5E95CEFF-032F-4E88-97E2-6C168D745369.png So I just had a crack at the squiggle and came out with this

From that I’d hazard a guess at our finals path looking GWS/Port Adelaide/Sydney/Richmond. Important that we bank wins at every opportunity because on the back of these predictions we miss top four by virtue of one win.
 
Last edited:
Played around a bit. Think Hawks and Port come home strong. Wouldn't be surprised if West Coast miss/only just sneak into finals, no hope for top 4 IMO.

Think we'll drop another 4 or 5, which puts us anywhere from 4th to 10th...which proves I have no idea what's going to happen.
 
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