Recruiting List Development 2017 - How do we develop our list?

[blitzer]

Its pretty clear that we will have a lot of turnover at the end of the year. Some players that are in bad form may yet find it however. I've put 7 as my number of probable outs with at least 3 more possible but I think they will err to the lower number (because there are only so many players you can replace in one draft). We are paying for holding onto senior players because of uncertainty during 2014 where we barely turned over the list.

Players that may be gone at the end of the year:
Long and Morgan - You certainly don't write them off yet but they need to significantly improve to keep their list spots. Long in particular in his third year on the rookie list isn't looking like a promote at this stage. Morgan's got more excuses but needs to show something this season or I don't think they will bother.

Hocking - In terrible form but may yet turn it around. The problem is he's built his whole career on being a tagger and we don't seem to want one.

Bird - Not playing bad but not getting a look in. Expect he will come into the side at some point. He has the advantage of being useful depth and we may keep him an extra year.

Howlett - Similar to Bird but slightly ahead and has played senior games. Think he will be kept. I actually quite like Howlett, tackles hard and is a good kick. Just doesn't have enough tricks at AFL level or a real point of difference.

Smack - He proved to be useful depth in games 1 and 2 which we won. I didn't want to keep him at the end of last season and wanted a bigger ruck option drafted instead on the rookie list. He's proven to be valuable though and I think we will keep him on the rookie list if he's willing to stay there.

J. Merrett - The guy is one of those 'too good for VFL, not good enough for AFL players'. Delist.

Watson/Stanton/Kelly - Their time is up.

Summary Probable Outs: 7 players : Long, Morgan, Hocking, J.Merrett, Watson, Stanton, Kelly

Players that others have mentioned that I don't agree with:

Brown - He's way too useful to get rid of. Even if you have him behind all of Hurley, Ambrose and Hartley then he's great depth. Right now he's 3rd behind Hurley and Ambrose. Offers great intercept marking. Plus we need depth in our KP defenders as our current situation is showing us right now with 2 injured.

Zaharakis - I would consider trading him if he wanted to leave but otherwise I'd keep him just on the prospect that he only needs to improve a bit closer to his previous form to be useful. Hell he was one of our best last year so I don't think getting rid of him is the priority no matter how much he annoys supporters.

 

[Killer_Mike]

Some good points there.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/es...m/news-story/40ab28df7e0237b650a0b2cd75c41e33

The concerning trends among Essendon’s top on-ballers — and how mosquito fleet can fix them
MAY 8, 201711:43PM

THEY’RE the big names that should be inspiring their Essendon teammates to perform at their best.

Instead, several of the Bombers’ best on-ballers are well down on their usual high standards.

They’re in desperate need of rescuing — and the club’s exciting brigade of small forwards loom as the perfection solution, following its loss to Fremantle at Subiaco Oval on Sunday.

According to Champion Data, Essendon has had the worst-performed midfield group in the competition so far this season.

Purely in the midfield zone — that is, between the two 50m arcs — the Bombers are ranked 18th for contested possessions (-13.7), 18th for clearances (-6.6) and 17th for inside 50s (-11.9).

And those poor team numbers and rankings are reflected in the outputs of the club’s best on-ballers.

No Bomber midfielder this season is rated ‘elite’. Veteran Brendon Goddard is the highest-ranked player at ‘above average’, thanks to his ability to work to take marks and good balance between inside and outside ball.

But the Bombers’ six next best midfielders all sit between ‘poor’ and ‘average’.

— Average: Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell


— Below Average: Jobe Watson and Travis Colyer

— Poor: David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish.



Merrett, who has been dubbed a Brownlow Medal chance, is perhaps the biggest surprise of that group, as his ability to win the ball in first-class. But the 21-year-old’s ranking drops as he’s predominantly an outside player, with a contested possession rate of just 29.5 per cent (poor) and an average contested possession count of 9.3 (below average).

While acknowledging the recent tight schedule for the Bombers, Fox Footy analyst David King said the Bombers’ midfielder haven’t had the legs to run out games in recent weeks.

“That’s the biggest problem for them at the moment. They’re just stopping, there is no doubt about that,” King told On The Couch.

The dual premiership Kangaroo then questioned Essendon coach John Worsfold’s decision to play the same players around the stoppages.

Essendon skipper Dyson Heppell is carrying a big burden.Source:Getty Images

King said he’d love to see some of the Bombers’ mosquito fleet, such as Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia, spend more time at centre bounces and stoppages to ease the burden.

“I just wonder what’s happening to the rotation in there,” King said.

“Are they using (McDonald-Tipungwuti) enough, are they giving him a run through there? Fantasia was an elite junior as a midfielder, are they giving him enough exposure? (Kyle) Langford’s numbers have really dropped away — 42 per cent midfield last year, 17 per cent this year.

“I just wonder if there’s an opportunity for those quicker guys that can maybe run the game out — and if they can’t carry the bulk of the load, at least a small percentage to give those tiring players legs a bit of a rest, because Heppell looks like he’s going up and down on the spot at times throughout the last three to four weeks.”

“What about a look at (Andrew) McGrath? Get him from the half-back line, get him in there and give him a look. He hasn’t been in for a centre bounce yet. I’d just love to see what he could do.

“They’re not thinking about winning flags this year, I don’t think. Why not get some exposure?”

Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy agreed: “They’ve got to get some more depth and they’ve got to get some more run. They did rest a number of players (against Fremantle), but they haven’t got enough rotations through there at the moment.”

 

[Killer_Mike]

Its pretty clear that we will have a lot of turnover at the end of the year. Some players that are in bad form may yet find it however. I've put 7 as my number of probable outs with at least 3 more possible but I think they will err to the lower number (because there are only so many players you can replace in one draft). We are paying for holding onto senior players because of uncertainty during 2014 where we barely turned over the list.

Players that may be gone at the end of the year:
Long and Morgan - You certainly don't write them off yet but they need to significantly improve to keep their list spots. Long in particular in his third year on the rookie list isn't looking like a promote at this stage. Morgan's got more excuses but needs to show something this season or I don't think they will bother.

Hocking - In terrible form but may yet turn it around. The problem is he's built his whole career on being a tagger and we don't seem to want one.

Bird - Not playing bad but not getting a look in. Expect he will come into the side at some point. He has the advantage of being useful depth and we may keep him an extra year.

Howlett - Similar to Bird but slightly ahead and has played senior games. Think he will be kept. I actually quite like Howlett, tackles hard and is a good kick. Just doesn't have enough tricks at AFL level or a real point of difference.

Smack - He proved to be useful depth in games 1 and 2 which we won. I didn't want to keep him at the end of last season and wanted a bigger ruck option drafted instead on the rookie list. He's proven to be valuable though and I think we will keep him on the rookie list if he's willing to stay there.

J. Merrett - The guy is one of those 'too good for VFL, not good enough for AFL players'. Delist.

Watson/Stanton/Kelly - Their time is up.

Summary Probable Outs: 7 players : Long, Morgan, Hocking, J.Merrett, Watson, Stanton, Kelly

Players that others have mentioned that I don't agree with:

Brown - He's way too useful to get rid of. Even if you have him behind all of Hurley, Ambrose and Hartley then he's great depth. Right now he's 3rd behind Hurley and Ambrose. Offers great intercept marking. Plus we need depth in our KP defenders as our current situation is showing us right now with 2 injured.

Zaharakis - I would consider trading him if he wanted to leave but otherwise I'd keep him just on the prospect that he only needs to improve a bit closer to his previous form to be useful. Hell he was one of our best last year so I don't think getting rid of him is the priority no matter how much he annoys supporters.

Sums it up pretty well I think.

I think Morgan still has time this year so he's a wait and see.

Disagree with the J. Merrett "too good for VFL" though. He's had one good game.

 

[BrunoV]

If there was a second round pick or a pick in the 30s I'd look at trading Brown.

We can cover the loss of one of the tall defenders by giving Ferry a rookie list spot.

Not saying that we should go out of our way to trade Brown but we could cover the loss.

 

[Towno78]

Reality is he's injury prone and has shown not much in the VFL. I'd take Heppell or Nick Hind over him right now and I don't think either will become AFL players.

The reality is a lot of kids are until they develop an AFL ready body. Injury prone 20 yo, doesn't mean he will be an injury prone 24yo.

 

[eth-dog]

The reality is a lot of kids are until they develop an AFL ready body. Injury prone 20 yo, doesn't mean he will be an injury prone 24yo.

Then it comes back to the other point.

 

[BrunoV]

Some good points there.

http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/es...m/news-story/40ab28df7e0237b650a0b2cd75c41e33

The concerning trends among Essendon’s top on-ballers — and how mosquito fleet can fix them
MAY 8, 201711:43PM

THEY’RE the big names that should be inspiring their Essendon teammates to perform at their best.

Instead, several of the Bombers’ best on-ballers are well down on their usual high standards.

They’re in desperate need of rescuing — and the club’s exciting brigade of small forwards loom as the perfection solution, following its loss to Fremantle at Subiaco Oval on Sunday.

According to Champion Data, Essendon has had the worst-performed midfield group in the competition so far this season.

Purely in the midfield zone — that is, between the two 50m arcs — the Bombers are ranked 18th for contested possessions (-13.7), 18th for clearances (-6.6) and 17th for inside 50s (-11.9).

And those poor team numbers and rankings are reflected in the outputs of the club’s best on-ballers.

No Bomber midfielder this season is rated ‘elite’. Veteran Brendon Goddard is the highest-ranked player at ‘above average’, thanks to his ability to work to take marks and good balance between inside and outside ball.

But the Bombers’ six next best midfielders all sit between ‘poor’ and ‘average’.

— Average: Zach Merrett and Dyson Heppell


— Below Average: Jobe Watson and Travis Colyer

— Poor: David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish.



Merrett, who has been dubbed a Brownlow Medal chance, is perhaps the biggest surprise of that group, as his ability to win the ball in first-class. But the 21-year-old’s ranking drops as he’s predominantly an outside player, with a contested possession rate of just 29.5 per cent (poor) and an average contested possession count of 9.3 (below average).

While acknowledging the recent tight schedule for the Bombers, Fox Footy analyst David King said the Bombers’ midfielder haven’t had the legs to run out games in recent weeks.

“That’s the biggest problem for them at the moment. They’re just stopping, there is no doubt about that,” King told On The Couch.

The dual premiership Kangaroo then questioned Essendon coach John Worsfold’s decision to play the same players around the stoppages.

Essendon skipper Dyson Heppell is carrying a big burden.Source:Getty Images

King said he’d love to see some of the Bombers’ mosquito fleet, such as Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti and Orazio Fantasia, spend more time at centre bounces and stoppages to ease the burden.

“I just wonder what’s happening to the rotation in there,” King said.

“Are they using (McDonald-Tipungwuti) enough, are they giving him a run through there? Fantasia was an elite junior as a midfielder, are they giving him enough exposure? (Kyle) Langford’s numbers have really dropped away — 42 per cent midfield last year, 17 per cent this year.

“I just wonder if there’s an opportunity for those quicker guys that can maybe run the game out — and if they can’t carry the bulk of the load, at least a small percentage to give those tiring players legs a bit of a rest, because Heppell looks like he’s going up and down on the spot at times throughout the last three to four weeks.”

“What about a look at (Andrew) McGrath? Get him from the half-back line, get him in there and give him a look. He hasn’t been in for a centre bounce yet. I’d just love to see what he could do.

“They’re not thinking about winning flags this year, I don’t think. Why not get some exposure?”

Brownlow Medallist Gerard Healy agreed: “They’ve got to get some more depth and they’ve got to get some more run. They did rest a number of players (against Fremantle), but they haven’t got enough rotations through there at the moment.”

More of the usual drivel from King.

How are short people going to help our contested ball issues?

The mosquito fleet is what causes the imbalance.

 

[Towno78]

Then it comes back to the other point.

Yeh, that's cool. If the club doesn't see any potential then that's fine, I'm also quite happy for them to persist if there is some. I think we'll have plenty of other spots being turned over.

 

[eth-dog]

Yeh, that's cool. If the club doesn't see any potential then that's fine, I'm also quite happy for them to persist if there is some. I think we'll have plenty of other spots being turned over.

In the end though, how many players with serious hamstring issues from 17-20 don't have those issues at 24?

 

[freddy mercury]

Its pretty clear that we will have a lot of turnover at the end of the year. Some players that are in bad form may yet find it however. I've put 7 as my number of probable outs with at least 3 more possible but I think they will err to the lower number (because there are only so many players you can replace in one draft). We are paying for holding onto senior players because of uncertainty during 2014 where we barely turned over the list.

Players that may be gone at the end of the year:
Long and Morgan - You certainly don't write them off yet but they need to significantly improve to keep their list spots. Long in particular in his third year on the rookie list isn't looking like a promote at this stage. Morgan's got more excuses but needs to show something this season or I don't think they will bother.

Hocking - In terrible form but may yet turn it around. The problem is he's built his whole career on being a tagger and we don't seem to want one.

Bird - Not playing bad but not getting a look in. Expect he will come into the side at some point. He has the advantage of being useful depth and we may keep him an extra year.

Howlett - Similar to Bird but slightly ahead and has played senior games. Think he will be kept. I actually quite like Howlett, tackles hard and is a good kick. Just doesn't have enough tricks at AFL level or a real point of difference.

Smack - He proved to be useful depth in games 1 and 2 which we won. I didn't want to keep him at the end of last season and wanted a bigger ruck option drafted instead on the rookie list. He's proven to be valuable though and I think we will keep him on the rookie list if he's willing to stay there.

J. Merrett - The guy is one of those 'too good for VFL, not good enough for AFL players'. Delist.

Watson/Stanton/Kelly - Their time is up.

Summary Probable Outs: 7 players : Long, Morgan, Hocking, J.Merrett, Watson, Stanton, Kelly

Players that others have mentioned that I don't agree with:

Brown - He's way too useful to get rid of. Even if you have him behind all of Hurley, Ambrose and Hartley then he's great depth. Right now he's 3rd behind Hurley and Ambrose. Offers great intercept marking. Plus we need depth in our KP defenders as our current situation is showing us right now with 2 injured.

Zaharakis - I would consider trading him if he wanted to leave but otherwise I'd keep him just on the prospect that he only needs to improve a bit closer to his previous form to be useful. Hell he was one of our best last year so I don't think getting rid of him is the priority no matter how much he annoys supporters.

Brown is terrible. Similar to Jackson Merrett. Also I expect to see McKenna gone.

 

[eth-dog]

Brown is terrible. Similar to Jackson Merrett. Also I expect to see McKenna gone.

Delusional pearlers is that way >>>

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Purely in the midfield zone — that is, between the two 50m arcs — the Bombers are ranked 18th for contested possessions (-13.7), 18th for clearances (-6.6) and 17th for inside 50s (-11.9).

Not surprised.

Our mid field has been poo for over a decade time to pull you finger out Essendon and recruit some some ****ing mids.

 

[Dons4days]

Brown is terrible. Similar to Jackson Merrett. Also I expect to see McKenna gone.

I don't expect McKenna to be delisted but I feel he's extremely overrated by some on here. He's quick and has a good boot but he's not a natural footballer.. He has a long, long way to go before he's an AFL standard player.

 

[BrunoV]

Brown is terrible. Similar to Jackson Merrett. Also I expect to see McKenna gone.

How do you get from McKenna with a year to go as an international rookie, two years into his career as a footballer, getting promoted to senior list only to being de-listed a year later?

 

[eth-dog]

How do you get from McKenna with a year to go as an international rookie, two years into his career as a footballer, getting promoted to senior list only to being de-listed a year later?

Because that's what he wants to happen.

 

[Lore]

How do you get from McKenna with a year to go as an international rookie, two years into his career as a footballer, getting promoted to senior list only to being de-listed a year later?

I don't think we want to get rid of him, but what is the usual time frame for an international player? Lots of them don't seem to finish off their careers here...

 

[katana]

surely long gets another year. his end of 2016 was great

 

[BrunoV]

I don't think we want to get rid of him, but what is the usual time frame for an international player? Lots of them don't seem to finish off their careers here...

Was talking the three years that McKenna has as a rookie. We did not have to promote him but did so anyway (despite all of the other shit going on with our list). Indicates to me that the club seriously rates him.

 

[Lore]

Was talking the three years that McKenna has as a rookie. We did not have to promote him but did so anyway (despite all of the other shit going on with our list). Indicates to me that the club seriously rates him.

I don't disagree. I'm talking about "go home factor". How many Irish recruits actually see out their careers in AFL?

 

[Killer_Mike]

https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com


Have the top five started to pull away from the competition already?
APRIL 28, 2017 ~ EDITOR ~ 1 COMMENT


Currently the 2017 season of the AFL looks like a small number of really good teams and then an unusually long tail of ordinary but not terrible teams. Only six clubs currently sit above the competition average on our combined rating covering midfield, offensive and defensive strength. By contrast, the bottom ranked side (Carlton) is closer to the pack than any team has finished in our ratings for any season since 2009 (Melbourne).

Adelaide, GWS and to a lesser extent Port Adelaide currently look well ahead of every other team in terms of their strength, with Geelong and Richmond also looking pretty solid on the back of great output in one part of the ground. The gap from Richmond (5th) to Melbourne (6th) is currently larger than the gap from Melbourne back to Sydney (15th). Likewise, the gap from Adelaide in first to Richmond in fifth is greater than the gap between Melbourne in sixth and Carlton in last.

We should note that it is early days and big movements can happen across a season as opponent strengths become more reliable and we get a larger sample of games. However, the question may simply be whether the lead group contains three, four, or five members and whether anyone can break out of the peloton composed of at least half the competition.

Last year HPN drew a line at 105% as the lowest a side could be and still be a viable premiership chance, which was based on the previous 20 years of ratings. The Bulldogs, a historical outlier, only just scraped by this barrier on an unadjusted basis in 2016, and were just under it on an opposition adjusted basis. On this basis all of the top five teams still remain viable premiership chances – but we note (yet again) that the season is very young, and a lot will change between now and September.

Some teams pop out of this as not really getting results commensurate with their apparent strength. The Demons sit 6th here but only have won two games, having let three close games slip, and been unlucky with structure-wrecking midgame injuries. The Bulldogs, now at 4-1, continue to be unimpressive.

By contrast, perhaps Richmond and Fremantle, popularly seen as over-performing or lucky so far, roughly deserve their respective 5-0 and 3-2 records.

This season shape as it stands right now is an intriguing one, as we can see comparing to past completed seasons. The dense cluster around 95% is pronounced:

It would be relatively unusual for the season to finish with no team below 90% of the competition average. We should expect some stragglers to fall further behind to where strugglers end up most years.

Similarly, Adelaide are currently tracking as strongly as Geelong of 2007 and nearly approaching Essendon of 2000. They do look very good right now, but if they can sustain these offensive, defensive and midfield efficiencies across a season, it would make them one of the all-time great teams and be a massive story in its own right, especially if the Giants don’t manage to stay with them.

In terms of specific line strengths, right now as we look at our team ratings, only the top three sides are rated above average in all three areas. Adelaide are continuing 2016’s historic performance in offensive efficiency but have added a greater dominance of inside-50 opportunities, meaning if they don’t have dominant midfielders then at least they are still dominating in the midfield area. Port Adelaide and Geelong both look like they’re strongest through the midfield as well. Richmond and Geelong also both have one line (Defence and Offense, respectively) sitting at least 10% above average.

Currently it looks as though Essendon have the worst midfield, Collingwood the worst forward line and Gold Coast the worst defence, but none of those sides shape as the worst team overall. Those three teams are counterbalanced by other lines – Essendon have defended well, Collingwood’s midfield looks strong, and the Suns have been strong between the arcs if not within them.

Only Sydney, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle are below average across the board so far this year and of those, Sydney’s defence, Hawthorn’s defence and Fremantle’s midfield are above 99%, so pretty much on average.

Some sides with pretty uneven strength include North Melbourne, West Coast and Brisbane. North have exhibited a pretty good defence, meaning they haven’t conceded scores from inside-50s too often in spite of their strong opponents. Rather it’s the sheer quantity of inside-50 opportunities allowed (identified in the midfield strength rating) which have brought them undone. The Eagles’ offensive efficiency has been their saving grace, while Brisbane’s offence has been league average but undone by the sheer lack of opportunities delivered by their midfield.

 

[Vindicater]

Summary Probable Outs: 7 players : Long, Morgan, Hocking, J.Merrett, Watson, Stanton, Kelly

I agree with most of these except I don't see Kelly pulling the plug unless he wants to.

I see

Retire: Watson and maybe Kelly
Delist: Stanton (If Kelly stays), Hocking, J Merrett, Morgan and Green

From the rookie list

Delist: Eades (already gone)

That would give us 6 roster spots to fill via the ND, PSD and free agency/trading along with one rookie spot (I would re-rookie Morgan if given the chance)

Would love to see us take 4 picks into the ND, 1 pick into the PSD and pick up a free agent like Andy Otten from the Crows.

 

[Skipper_]

https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com


Have the top five started to pull away from the competition already?
APRIL 28, 2017 ~ EDITOR ~ 1 COMMENT


Currently the 2017 season of the AFL looks like a small number of really good teams and then an unusually long tail of ordinary but not terrible teams. Only six clubs currently sit above the competition average on our combined rating covering midfield, offensive and defensive strength. By contrast, the bottom ranked side (Carlton) is closer to the pack than any team has finished in our ratings for any season since 2009 (Melbourne).

Adelaide, GWS and to a lesser extent Port Adelaide currently look well ahead of every other team in terms of their strength, with Geelong and Richmond also looking pretty solid on the back of great output in one part of the ground. The gap from Richmond (5th) to Melbourne (6th) is currently larger than the gap from Melbourne back to Sydney (15th). Likewise, the gap from Adelaide in first to Richmond in fifth is greater than the gap between Melbourne in sixth and Carlton in last.

We should note that it is early days and big movements can happen across a season as opponent strengths become more reliable and we get a larger sample of games. However, the question may simply be whether the lead group contains three, four, or five members and whether anyone can break out of the peloton composed of at least half the competition.

Last year HPN drew a line at 105% as the lowest a side could be and still be a viable premiership chance, which was based on the previous 20 years of ratings. The Bulldogs, a historical outlier, only just scraped by this barrier on an unadjusted basis in 2016, and were just under it on an opposition adjusted basis. On this basis all of the top five teams still remain viable premiership chances – but we note (yet again) that the season is very young, and a lot will change between now and September.

Some teams pop out of this as not really getting results commensurate with their apparent strength. The Demons sit 6th here but only have won two games, having let three close games slip, and been unlucky with structure-wrecking midgame injuries. The Bulldogs, now at 4-1, continue to be unimpressive.

By contrast, perhaps Richmond and Fremantle, popularly seen as over-performing or lucky so far, roughly deserve their respective 5-0 and 3-2 records.

This season shape as it stands right now is an intriguing one, as we can see comparing to past completed seasons. The dense cluster around 95% is pronounced:

It would be relatively unusual for the season to finish with no team below 90% of the competition average. We should expect some stragglers to fall further behind to where strugglers end up most years.

Similarly, Adelaide are currently tracking as strongly as Geelong of 2007 and nearly approaching Essendon of 2000. They do look very good right now, but if they can sustain these offensive, defensive and midfield efficiencies across a season, it would make them one of the all-time great teams and be a massive story in its own right, especially if the Giants don’t manage to stay with them.

In terms of specific line strengths, right now as we look at our team ratings, only the top three sides are rated above average in all three areas. Adelaide are continuing 2016’s historic performance in offensive efficiency but have added a greater dominance of inside-50 opportunities, meaning if they don’t have dominant midfielders then at least they are still dominating in the midfield area. Port Adelaide and Geelong both look like they’re strongest through the midfield as well. Richmond and Geelong also both have one line (Defence and Offense, respectively) sitting at least 10% above average.

Currently it looks as though Essendon have the worst midfield, Collingwood the worst forward line and Gold Coast the worst defence, but none of those sides shape as the worst team overall. Those three teams are counterbalanced by other lines – Essendon have defended well, Collingwood’s midfield looks strong, and the Suns have been strong between the arcs if not within them.

Only Sydney, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle are below average across the board so far this year and of those, Sydney’s defence, Hawthorn’s defence and Fremantle’s midfield are above 99%, so pretty much on average.

Some sides with pretty uneven strength include North Melbourne, West Coast and Brisbane. North have exhibited a pretty good defence, meaning they haven’t conceded scores from inside-50s too often in spite of their strong opponents. Rather it’s the sheer quantity of inside-50 opportunities allowed (identified in the midfield strength rating) which have brought them undone. The Eagles’ offensive efficiency has been their saving grace, while Brisbane’s offence has been league average but undone by the sheer lack of opportunities delivered by their midfield.

Is there an updated ranking for Round 7?

 

[Killer_Mike]

Is there an updated ranking for Round 7?

Is this an AFL season without terrible teams?


Last week we focused on the possibility that a lead group of between three and five teams was already separating itself from the pack. This week we want to look at the rest of the competition. There’s an evenness becoming evident this year, with a lot of ordinary sides, some of whom will make finals. Even the bottom teams don’t look as bad as the worst teams from many previous years. At this stage, there’s nobody who stands out as being abjectly terrible. There’s nobody currently rating as relatively lowly as the Bombers last year, the early years of GWS, or the hapless Melbourne sides of a few years ago. Subjectively, every bottom side has certainly shown patches of decent footy.

This isn’t to say that nobody will implode or start truly tanking. The season is long, and there’s always the possibility that one or more of the current battlers go backwards from here. Alternatively, it could tighten up – but it’s worth noting that Essendon (the worst team last year) finished up at a rating of 86% after hovering around the 83%-86% mark all year. That 86% mark was good enough to be among the ten worst team-seasons since 1997.

The middle pack
With Melbourne still looking above-average, the six teams below them continue to jostle and perhaps to separate a touch from the lower group. Collingwood (up 4 places) and North Melbourne (down 4) were the biggest movers, but really, the spread between West Coast (99.9%) and Fremantle (97%) is very small.

None of these teams look brilliant and we can point to flaws in all of them just with a glance at the red and orange cells representing their Midfield, Offensive or Defensive strengths. However, this group logically has to produce finalists, and we have no idea if anyone is going to step up. If not, two of them will stumble into September regardless. This could potentially be a season with a finalist with 11 or less wins, if results break the right (or wrong) way.

Looking further back, we see Essendon, Gold Coast and Sydney slipping back a touch. This maybe suggests that Essendon are about as good as they were in 2015, before their players weer banned. The Swans, amusingly, rise a spot in the ratings despite probably watching their hopes of a quick recovery go up in flames over the weekend, and in spite of their actual figure itself moving backwards. The Swans benefited from Gold Coast slumping a touch more, the swap is largely reflective of changes to the grading of their past opponents. Gold Coast have played Hawthorn and Brisbane who had bad weeks, whilst Sydney have Collingwood, West Coast and the Bulldogs in their history.

But about the Crows…
We do need to look at the top as well, because the Crows can’t be ignored. This time last year, this rating system had the eventual preliminary finalists as a top 4. This includes the Bulldogs, though they did drop off later in the regular season for us, replaced by Adelaide. A word of caution – Geelong briefly looked nearly as good as Adelaide does now in ratings terms after Round 8 last year, but that slumped back to the pack pretty quickly. Samples are still somewhat small at this stage.

Richmond’s previously league-best adjusted defensive strength rating took a relative battering under bombardment from Adelaide’s historic offence and midfield. Hilariously, though, Richmond weren’t disgraced in their twelve goal loss to Adelaide, and only suffered a modest downgrade with no loss of relative position to the competition, still sitting 5th overall and presenting as a probable finalist. The story here is not Richmond, but rather that Adelaide’s performance continues to be stratospheric.

The challenge for the Crows will be maintaining it, but the season they’ve produced so far is a truly rare vein of form, including against good opposition. The Crows have played our current 2nd, 3rd, 5th best teams as well as 13th, 15th and 18th – a slightly above average set of opponents overall, especially considering that they couldn’t play themselves. We want to stress that this isn’t like North Melbourne’s false run at the top of the ladder last year, our system never really rated North. When they were 9-0 last year, North looked about 5th best on raw strength ratings and 8th best with scaling for opposition strength. If the back end of the ladder looks happier than recent seasons, the Crows are currently out on their own at the top.

 

[adsla69k]

I like Nick Hind!!!

 

[adsla69k]

James Hird nearly got cut after his first season and Sheedy decided to give him another go. Players like jerrett Morgan and Long are on the cusp of a delisting after a few years on the list. They need to start showing something thos season or adios amigos. 7 gone is a minimum, I think 8 realistically.

I bet anyone 10 bucks when we play some youngsters in the same team like Laverde, Langford, Mutch and Stewart with McGrath, Parish & Merrett we will start seeing some good results.