Opinion List Importance 2014

[POBT]

The tradition (which was plagiarised from Inside Football anyway) continues.

The key points to note as you read the next post:

- only players who have played senior footy have been ranked (no Aish - I would have him around 20 at this point, for those who might want to know)
- it is about who is most important to our side's fortunes, not necessarily who are the best players
- it is a prediction about 2014, not just an analysis of what they delivered last year
- resilience, replaceability and reliability are big factors but so is the ability to change a game
- the bracketed number is what I had them ranked for last year

I haven't spent quite as much time as I ordinarily do in working out the order so I am genuinely interested in hearing what people think. I'll do a version 2 if there are convincing arguments as to why I am wrong.

List to follow.

 

[POBT]

1. Matthew Leuenberger (last year: 12)

Why? As our only genuine first string ruckman, he is nigh on irreplaceable. He is an extra midfielder at stoppages, can spread well and is showing a growing ability to take a contested mark. An All Australian year could push us a few spots up the ladder. He could make our season.


2. Daniel Rich (1)

Why? Not much change to Rich’s status since last year. When he’s on song he’s the most influential player on the ground. He kicks and sets up goals from the midfield and his kicking can make a mockery of opposition zones. Consistency across four quarters and across a season remains problematic. The quality is evident but he needs a lift in productivity.


3. Tom Rockliff (8)

Why? His last 8 or 9 games playing on ball were elite. He wins his share of clearances but it is his game sense and more effective ball use which I think allows him to stand out. 22 games like his last 8 will see him feature very prominently in end of season awards and will give us that elite midfielder we’ve been searching for since Black and Power’s best.


4. Brent Moloney (5)

Why? The best clearance player in a poor clearance side. He provides bulk and explosiveness – attributes not hugely evident in the other first string midfielders. Injuries and age remain a concern.


5. Pearce Hanley (6)

Why? He’s hugely influential and a very different style to our other running players. Playing forward of centre, he kicks and sets up goals which is a rare skill in our side. Played behind the footy, he generates run and carry. He finds space when there is none – he always seems to zig when the opposition expects him to zag. On top of that, he is probably our most creative user of the footy and has also shown he can rack up touches. In all, he’s just an elite footballer. I prefer him on a wing but he looks likely to play across half back.


6. Joel Patfull (9)

Why? He adds to his game every year after starting off as a very dour, limited defender. He now wins the ball back both in the air and on the ground – a trait which is enormously valuable in modern footy. And he will rebound when it is his turn. He is the ideal 2nd/3rd tall defender in footy and his influence on the side is greater than his statistics show.



7. Dayne Zorko (7)

Why? He’s the standard bearer up forward for defensive effort. He didn’t have quite the freedom (or shock value) as he did in his debut season but was still effective. He can go to another level – if he can kick two goals a game and/or push towards 20 touches a game, he’ll be considered a premier half forward.



8. Jack Redden (4)

Why? He drops on last year’s rating. He simply didn’t go the next level as a midfielder in 2013. He wasn’t exactly poor and played his role but neither did he consistently tear games apart. Needs to improve his ball use and also get more energetic around the contest. Still a first string mid in our side but is a genuine B grader if he doesn’t show improvement – if he doesn’t take a step forward this year, chances are he’ll remain a rung or two below elite.


9. Josh Green (17)

Why? Last season, we played a fast break style of footy. While that allowed Green to use his superior pace to burn off opponents, it didn’t allow him to show his true strength – winning the contested footy. Leppa’s gameplan seems to focus on getting repeat opportunities in the forward 50. That will suit Green down to the ground. His attack on the footy and his one-touch ball winning is a major asset at forward 50 stoppages. Higher than some would expect but I think he’ll have a breakout year.


10. Daniel Merrett (2)

Why? Has shown glimpses of being an A grade fullback but hasn’t had the opportunity to play lots of footy down back. An automatic match up for most of the game’s best key forwards which allows Leppitsch to build a defence around him.


11. Jonathan Brown (3)

Why? He’s a declining force but still probably better than the alternatives. It is my view that any success we may experience this year will come in spite of our tall forward structure and not because of it. That now makes someone like Brown more of a role player than the main act.


12. Sam Mayes (Not ranked)

Why? If a gameplan is built on quality ball use, then it makes sense to have one of the side’s best kicks near the top. Mayes covers the ground well enough, doesn’t shirk the contest and his ball use is excellent. If he has a weakness, it is in his tackling where he is relatively ineffectual at this stage of his career.


13. Jed Adcock (10)

Why? Probably more a case of this is the first spot I can slot him in. I was not impressed with Adcock at all for about half of last year – as a spare man defensively he didn’t impact the marking contest enough and his kicking on the rebound was ordinary. However, I thought his game was much improved in the latter rounds – he lowered his eyes and started to really hurt the opposition going inside 50. While obviously a leader, this is less of a factor down back if the experienced Merrett and Patfull play in defence each week.


14. Ryan Lester (26)

Why? It is no secret that I am a fan but, in the preseason, he’s showing what he can do with more time on ball. He’s certainly a work in progress as a midfielder but his size is a real asset at the contest and he can win a clearance. He leads the second tier of midfielders and will be a big factor in the games Moloney misses. Needs to run harder for longer and/or learn to play smarter.


15. Brent Staker (28)

Why? Like Brown, his ranking suffers due to the lesser focus I have put on key forwards in our side this year. Showed a new ability to take a contested grab in 2013 which really wasn’t his go before. His ball use is excellent for a big fella and he covers the ground as well as many wingmen. If anything, he tends to fade in and out of games a little which may have partially been a product of the role he played, getting behind the footy when the situation required.


16. Ryan Harwood (29)

Why? He shows a real aptitude as a rugged half back flanker and straight lines the footy every time. He rarely fumbles and exudes calmness as he assesses the options before delivering the footy, invariably with a good outcome. I’m reminded of the way Choppy Ashcroft used to play in our premiership years – Harzy is both calm and efficient. He’s been highly impressive this pre-season too – which is why I have him ahead of Golby for the moment.


17. Mitch Golby (14)

Why? With Yeo’s departure, Golby is now the primary lock down small defender in the side. He has the agility, engine and concentration to play on most small and medium forwards. I suspect any thoughts of him playing a more prominent role on ball have gone for the moment as our need is in defence. His ball use is surprisingly ordinary for a guy who looks like a good kick. Needs to cut out the clangers – pre-season form has been shabby in this regard.


18. Luke McGuane (unranked)

Why? An impressive showing first up in the pre-season but I focus more on what he did last year at Richmond. He can take a contested mark and, at worst, prevents his opponent from winning the ball in the air. He moves like a medium when the ball hits the deck and shows great tenacity with defensive pressure. I think these factors will make him an important part of Leppa’s game plan. His general kicking is deplorable though!


19. Claye Beams (20)

Why? Like Lester, it seems like that Beams will form part of that B rotation of midfielders who come in after the likes of Rockliff and Moloney have had a stint. At his best, he wins the hard ball, can run all day, works well in traffic, can kick a goal and generally just uses the ball well. He can also play a role across half forward or as a defensive mid. However, due to injuries, he really hasn’t had a chance to show those attributes consistently. It would be a great outcome if he can just play some regular senior footy in 2014.


20. Justin Clarke (not ranked)

Why? Clarke looks to be ahead of Maguire for the 2nd tall defensive role. He competes well in the air and, despite not being a big unit, matches up OK on strong bodies. Where his game suffers is when he gets the footy. His kicking can be quite good. But, in traffic, he panics, either throwing the footy on the boot indiscriminately or handballing into dangerous spots.


21. Trent West (not ranked)

Why? The intention was to have West listed here in the top 18 players but, in reality, the fact that he will probably start on the field most matches is a structural thing rather than a reflection on his importance. Against the Suns, I was reasonably impressed with his ruckwork although the Hawthorn game exposed his inability to ruck for long periods – I wouldn’t like him as our first string ruck. He certainly needs to make a greater impact up forward, if not taking marks then at least bringing the ball to the ground and making his presence felt with physicality. He was a role player at Geelong and will probably be the same here.


22. Ash McGrath (22)

Why? As an undersized full forward, it is perhaps no surprise that Ash is inconsistent but, at his best, he can play as a leading focal point in the forward line. His absence from the pre-season games makes it hard to know what role, if any, he might play this year although he’s reportedly shown up fitter than normal. Perhaps the super-sub role beckons?


23. Andrew Raines (18)

Why? Not only is Raines the club’s best tagger, statistics show he’s one of the competition’s best in that role. Yet, he remains a very limited footballer. At his age, it is probably too much to expect the other areas of his game to improve (specifically his disposal and decision making) so the question simply becomes – do we have a role for a under-skilled yet competent tagger in the side? If yes, he’s a best 18 player. If no (or, at least, not every week), he really drops down the list and may struggle for a career beyond this year.


24. Matt Maguire (24)

Why? He and Clarke aren’t too far apart in the pecking order, although offer different skills. Maguire is stronger against big opponents and is certainly a more calming influence with his ball use down back. But athletically, he can be shown up. He’s either valuable depth or just inside the best 22, depending on how Clarke goes. It is nice to have him on the list while we develop some youngsters.


25. Jack Crisp (32)

Why? Has the physique and running capacity of a modern tall midfielder and was a genuine midfield force in the reserves last year. In 2012, I thought he got by on his energy and attack on the footy, without ever really knowing what to do. While he didn’t get as many senior games last season, from reserves footy, he looks a more accomplished footballer. Our depth beyond the best 25 or so could be a problem for the Lions and, in his third year, Crisp should be aiming for a dozen games as the “next in line” mid.


26. Rohan Bewick (13)

Why? Bewick has fallen a long way down the pecking order. At the conclusion of the pre-season last year, I had Bewick as one of the big improvers. Unfortunately, he remains a bit of an enigma, showing a capability to impact games without doing so across four quarters. He often didn’t make the most of goal kicking opportunities (15:21 with a fair few out of bounds) which is a problem for a guy who doesn’t get a lot of the footy. He may be pushed out of the best 22 by someone like McGuane who brings some of the same attributes but also some bulk and mongrel. I still quite like Bewick but I’m not sure he’s in favour.


27. Jordan Lisle (33)

This was my comment in last year’s rankings: “…until he shows that he can split packs as a big, angry marking forward or hurt sides with goals, then he’s not going to get a game.” Nothing has really changed. The question is whether he can fix the flaws – they are the same flaws he turned up with 2 years ago.


28. Marco Paparone (not ranked)

Why? As a hybrid wing-forward, he certainly shows glimpses that he has what it takes to be a senior footballer without really looking comfortable at the top level. Put simply, he needs to win more of the footy at senior level. I think game sense is the biggest flaw in his game right now – knowing where to be and what to do. He also needs more time in the gym as he’s bumped off the line of the ball too easily. Staker and McGuane (and maybe Bewick) are ahead of him as roaming mid-sized forwards.


29. Jackson Paine (not ranked)

Why? Without the benefit of seeing him in the pre-season at all, it is hard to make an assessment. My recollection of him at Collingwood is as a vigorous forward who attacks the contest hard and can take a grab. The weakness seems to be his athleticism and mobility. Only young but he’s depth at this stage until proven otherwise.


30. Stefan Martin (16)

Why? As the only mature ruck support to our starting ruckmen, he’s more important than perhaps his impact on the club to date would suggest. He showed vigour and enthusiasm in his limited game time last season, without necessarily doing a great deal. He’s been injured since. Needs to get on the paddock – NEAFL game time beckons but I don’t write him off pushing past West as the 2nd ruck at some point.


31. James Polkinghorne (27)

Why? He’s the same footballer he was 12 months ago and probably 12 months before that. Transforming himself to play a small defender role is probably what’s required to find a regular spot in the side. There wasn’t a lot to like from his first pre-season game this year which is a worrying sign for his career.


32. Sam Michael (not ranked)

Why? Sam did OK late last year when given an opportunity. But all signs are that he’s not at senior level just yet. A third development year awaits but he has to be really pushing towards the senior ranks by year’s end to be worth persevering with. Still only on the rookie list and we’re still yet to know if he’s a ruck, forward, defender or a hybrid type.

 

[western royboy]

Great analysis and fair rankings.....not sure it inspires too much confidence I'm afraid - bottom 6 for me, a chance to be in the bottom three if the expansion teams click into gear.

 

[POBT]

Great analysis and fair rankings.....not sure it inspires too much confidence I'm afraid - bottom 6 for me, a chance to be in the bottom three if the expansion teams click into gear.

Having done the list, my gut feel is pretty much what it was last year. Pretty solid 20-25 with depth being a big problem. Some potential for break-out years and with the heart of our list (Rockliff, Redden, Rich, Hanley) all now in the prime of their careers. I didn't think we were a poor side before last year and I think the same now. Having said that, I think a lot needs to go right for us to make finals.

I don't like relying on first years but I'd put Aish around #20, Robertson around #25, hopefully Taylor around the same mark. Close is unranked but he'd be in the top 25 or so based on pre-season form. That adds a little bit of depth too.

 

[blynd_freddie]

I love you annual prognostications POBT

One major concern, would it be the first time in a decade or so that you have not ranked a key forward in the top 10?

Browny from 3 > 11 and McGuane from an unranked to 18 being anawkaded kind of, well that's it folks. I will be wanting/waiting/wishing for step-ups of the likes of Close, Lisle, Paparone and Paine over the next six months.

 

[POBT]

I think last year was the first time Brown had not been top 2 (I had him at 3).

There is a good chance that I'm trying to convince myself that we don't need a high quality forward but what I've seen from Leppa's gameplan suggests that we won't be looking to our big forwards to kick bags.

 

[chopperduck]

That is the advantage of the new game plan, we dont 'need' a Brown to kick a bag. Good to have, but doesnt rely on it. Probably a good time to switch to that game plan with our elite forward going out the door and no heir apparent.

 

[chopperduck]

Good rankings though, as soon as I saw the thread I thought Bergs number one followed by the 3 R's. Our game plan will need our A grade mids to fire, and our ruck to give first use.

 

[jackess]

Poor Polks

 

[Ironmonger]

Well, I flagged a while ago that I was going to get stuck in on this thread, so I suppose I’d better follow through.

Essay coming up. You’re all warned.

I reckon Rockliff has to be number one. I get the logic behind Leuey taking that spot but Rocky showed in the second half of last season exactly how much of a difference he makes. His work rate and enthusiasm doesn’t just win us the ball but it changes the way opponents play, and the impact he has out there is reflected in his extraordinary Brownlow performance in that part of the season. I spent most of the first half of last season moaning about what seemed to be a lack of on-field leadership, and then Rocky stepped up and provided exactly that.

He is hugely important. Probably only Ablett, Selwood and Riewoldt are more important for their respective teams than Rockliff is for us.

I’m afraid to say I think Rich at #2 is much too high. At the start of last season this made more sense, because we were lacking in outside mids, but Hanley and Mayes have given us a bit more quality on the wings. Unfortunately for Rich, he hasn’t really developed the extra weapons he needs to be an elite player. His ability to influence games is mostly reliant on his big left boot, and he hasn’t really shown much ability to break away from consistent defensive pressure. So I’d have him several spots lower. Maybe even double digits.

I’m pretty sure last year I had Green much higher than POBT, and now this year POBT has Green much higher than I would. Maybe we’re both overcorrecting. I think he’s probably developing into a solid, defensively minded small forward, rather than the explosive goalkicker who takes games apart that we thought he could’ve been after that famous quarter against the Eagles.

I really hope POBT is right about a breakout year, though, because no denying that if he is we’ll be a much stronger team.

The two that really surprise me, and would be firmly in my top ten, are Staker and Golby.

POBT’s taken the approach that one way or the other our tall forwards won’t be much of a positive for us in 2014, so there’s no point in bumping them too far up the order. Well, I’d take the opposite approach. We’re a low-scoring team, we’ll be involved in quite a few close, low-scoring games (I hope) and a bloke like Staker who is capable of drifting forward and kicking a couple of goals per game is crucial.

Staker has a couple of other assets in his favour: it appears that Leppitsch is keen on roaming CHFs, which is the perfect spot for Stakes, and his field kicking is much, much better than any of our other half forwards (McGuane, Paparone, Close etc…). I have to agree that he had a tendency to fade out of games last season, but that might be a product of more than two years out of the game, and having to adjust to a new role; in 2010 he didn’t really have that tendency.

Golby is another player who I think becomes more important under Leppitsch’s switch and spread gameplan, and also more important now that Yeo and Docherty have departed. He seems to be our first choice option for overlapping from the backline, certainly on the left side, and will also be expected to play a defensive role on small forwards.

Absolutely he needs to reduce the clangers. But there hasn’t been any sign in the off-season that Leppitsch is thinking of using him less in that clearing role despite his patchy disposal, so whether or not he’s one of our most talented players, he’s certainly one of our most important players.

Both Staker and Golby are in the 6-10 bracket, in my opinion.

But apart from that, I’d say I agree on pretty much everything else and all of the reasons given. Moloney, Hanley, Patfull and Redden are certainly amongst our most important few players, and Zorko is thereabouts. You could always quibble about some of the lower spots but there's nothing outrageous, to my eyes.

Another excellent piece of work and a great read.

Although it’s a bit sobering to see someone as untried as Jack Crisp slot in at #25. I guess we’re expecting one or two of the rookies to make some sort of impact, but it drives home that we are very vulnerable to injury in 2014. Thankfully we’ve had good luck so far.

 

[chopperduck]

Most years you have a bolter come from somewhere and add something to the team that you werent expecting, so you never know. Im hoping Beams can do that this year.

As a massive Rocky fan I cant argue with your rating of him Tom. i feel he is really going to go big this year, sole VC, full midfield role, could be massive for Rocky, and reflect massively for the team. If he has a year that puts him top 3 in Brownlow, we will be in the finals hunt. Bergs I still think will be massively important though, we need that top line ruck to compliment our mids, and with West on board, I think Bergs will finally have the back up he needs to go big this year.

 

[patfullfankezz]

I'm probably the most biased person in the world, so feel free to disregard this post.

My top 3 would probably go Leuey, Patfull, Hanley.

Given our ruck stocks, I fully agree with Leuey's place on the list. However, given how badly our midfield can leak and the inconsistency that the likes of Rich and Redden have, I think our defenders are more important, and the best of them is our beloved JPats. Hanley is up there because he's a rebounder who can kick goals, so he's important in terms of linking defence and attack.

Just my 2c (GST not included).

 

[western royboy]

I'm probably the most biased person in the world, so feel free to disregard this post.

My top 3 would probably go Leuey, Patfull, Hanley.

Given our ruck stocks, I fully agree with Leuey's place on the list. However, given how badly our midfield can leak and the inconsistency that the likes of Rich and Redden have, I think our defenders are more important, and the best of them is our beloved JPats. Hanley is up there because he's a rebounder who can kick goals, so he's important in terms of linking defence and attack.

Just my 2c (GST not included).

Not an unreasonable position at all.

There was a time when I rated J Drummond at No.1

 

[scott_the_man]

my opinion of the top 5:

1. luenberger
daylight

2. hanley
3. patfull
4.zorko
5. rockliff

 

[James North]

Who is this "Daylight"? I've got to see him play.

Good list, scott_the_man.

 

[James North]

I'd go

1. Rockliff

Numbers man - unknown AA.

2. Leuy

One of the top ruckmen in the AFL - not a joke.

3. Hanley

Can turn defence into attack, and attack into attack.

4. Joell Pattful

Outmarks and outsmarts almost anyone.

5. Zorko

Speed and delivery with some goals.

I've gotta get a late dinner.

 

[Sherrinator]

Rockliff, Leuenberger, Patfull, Moloney are the more obvious ones. Heaps of 'get the job done' players that set great examples 'Zorko, Green etc'.

Rich is a game winner but I would love him to be the one who sets the tone and lead from the front.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Looking forward to POBT 's analysis of the 2004 list impotence.

 

[whatboutbob]

Agree with Lleuie as #1, in preference to Rocklliff due to the former's irrepllaceabillity. I'd have Merrett and Harzy higher for the same reason, pushing Green out of the top 10 which sits better with me. Agree we'll see a jump from him this year though. I'd swap Hanlley with Daniell Rich, due to proven consistent performance. Otherwise, we're on the same page POB's, inclluding our ranking of Patful.

 

[chopperduck]

Its going to be very interesting to see how we use Hanley and Rich this year. They are our two most dangerous players, and for the reason our most tagged. Both are also susceptible to tags and dont have as much impact with close attention. Rich I think has played more around the outside of packs, we are really looking for him to be the 3rd or 4th receiver from the contest and have him kicking inside 50. Hanley looks set to play more from the back half going through the middle. Whilst he was marked for a move to more midfield and forward, having Zorko, Mayes and Aish has really meant we can use him across the back instead. I dont think we expected to get 2 players like Aish and Taylor in the draft, both should play this year and are mid/fwd options.

It will be hard for teams to stop both Hanley and Rich in games, and I think we need to look to use these guys to really push the point and force teams to man them up. Tag these two and you have Rocky, Redden and Moloney, probably our 3 main on ballers freed up.

Hopefully with our game style being more ball use, we can get Rich and hanley closer to 25 touches a game ave. If so, will be big win us in 2014.

 

[AFLQLD]

This is probably the season that defines Rich's career to a large degree. There is plenty of reasonable talent around him now and a few with the potential to star that he has an opportunity to really expose opposition teams.

I am sure he will be tagged to start most games but if a couple of other guys begin to dominate and require extra attention from the other team he will find himself with more time and space than he has had for the last few years.

He needs a few big games strung together I think for him to know that he has that ability to turn games.

 

[Dylan12]

Great analysis and fair rankings.....not sure it inspires too much confidence I'm afraid - bottom 6 for me, a chance to be in the bottom three if the expansion teams click into gear.

Couldn't agree more...for mine, shows what an underwhelming list we have and to think after 10 years and only 1 final series in that time, that it will still be another 3+ years before that even happens; and that's if we're lucky.

 

[BuntonRules]

Couldn't agree more...for mine, shows what an underwhelming list we have and to think after 10 years and only 1 final series in that time, that it will still be another 3+ years before that even happens; and that's if we're lucky.

Sing along - "A little ray of sunshine has come in to my world"......................

Good list, good discussion. I would have Hanley higher, & with his b&f voting would say the club rates JPat a bit more too.

 

[Elixuh]

Given the criteria I think your list is mostly spot on. I would just place Merrett higher - I think he is an important foundation for our defence to be built around (but your reasoning for having him that high is sound).

I haven't been keeping track of the new recruits really during the off season so I'm glad to see you rate Aish somewhat highly already. Promising.

 

[James North]

Yeah Merrett should be pretty high. Cool guy.