NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

[exe ex machina]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-says-lockout-near-certainty-next-season.html

The executive director of the National Football League players union said a player lockout next season is a “near certainty,” and that it would cost the U.S. economy an estimated $5 billion in lost wages, taxes and other revenue if the entire season is canceled.

In an interview on “Political Capital With Al Hunt” airing this weekend on Bloomberg television, union chief DeMaurice Smith said if NFL owners lock out players in order to get concessions in a labor dispute, it would be devastating to local communities as the country struggles with a 9.6 percent unemployment rate.

“The magnitude of the loss would be at the very least about $160 million to $170 million per team-city,” Smith said. “That is a conservative estimate of the economic impact.”

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello challenged Smith’s numbers, saying they came from union projections rather than a government agency, investment bank or noted economist.

“It is a series of numbers pulled from thin air in a misguided attempt to inject politics into the collective bargaining process,” Aiello said in an e-mail. “There is a fair deal to be done and soon if the union will bargain with the same fervor it displays in creating economic fairy tales.”

Owners Vote
NFL owners voted unanimously in May 2008 to opt out of their labor contract with the players at the end of this season -- two years early. The players were satisfied with the agreement and wanted to complete the contract.

The 32-team league says NFL stadiums are getting more expensive to build and operate, and has asked the players to reduce the pool of money used to calculate their salaries by $1 billion, according to the players. The union has asked the league to prove it needs the money by opening its books. The league has declined the request.

“The owners have told us that no team is losing money,” Smith said. “The owners have told us that no team is facing economic peril. They haven’t even told us that teams have a smaller amount of profits this year.” If the league wants to sign a new labor contract by the end of the year, there needs to be “a substantial increase in the amount of economic information that’s turned over,” Smith said.

Other issues being negotiated include: the amount of money paid to rookies, extending the 16-game regular season schedule by two games, health coverage and drug-testing requirements, according to the union.

Health Care
Smith said about 1,900 players will lose their health- care coverage if players are locked out when the labor contract ends in March. He said the union estimates there will be about 300 expectant mothers and an unspecified number of children awaiting heart transplants and kidney dialysis at that time.

Aiello said a lockout triggers rights under the COBRA federal law that allows employees to continue their existing health insurance coverage without interruption either at their expense or the union’s. “This means that no player or family member would experience any change in coverage for so much as a single day because of a work stoppage,” Aiello said. Smith says if the labor dispute comes down to a lockout, the NFL has financial leverage.

The league negotiated agreements with broadcast networks News Corp.’s Fox, CBS Corp., General Electric Co.’s NBC, Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN and DirecTV that will pay the NFL about $4 billion in television revenue whether games are played or not.

Lockout Fund
The union has saved about $200 million in a lockout fund, Smith said. “We know they have an economic leverage over us,” Smith said. “Those TV contracts … (are) a huge economic hammer that hangs over the players. “But when it does come to leverage, about understanding the necessity of sacrifice, teamwork, our players believe they are this game. I believe that we have a tremendous amount of leverage.”

Much of that leverage comes from the game’s popularity and the fame of the players. The union also reached out to political leaders and other unions before the current season to argue that a lockout isn’t just bad for the NFL, it’s bad for America.

League Statement
The NFL on Nov. 23 responded with a statement that attacked the union for wasting Congress’s time on the league’s labor negotiations when the nation’s leaders could be working on more serious issues.

“The union’s request for state and local political leaders to intercede in the negotiations ignores and denigrates the serious and far more substantial problems that those leaders, and that state and local workers across the country face,” the statement said. “We can resolve our own issues as we have done many times in the past.” The NFL has had labor peace since work stoppages during the 1982 and 1987 seasons.

The league, which has a political action committee, has contacted members of Congress regarding the current labor dispute and Commissioner Roger Goodell recently went to the White House, where he met with officials including Peter Rouse, the interim chief of staff, and Valerie Jarrett, a senior adviser to President Barack Obama, Aiello said. Goodell’s mission was to “just update and cover the basic issues and keep the lines of communication open,” Aiello said.

Playing Defense
He also said the NFL is simply playing defense through such visits. He e-mailed a comment NFL Vice President of Government Relations Jeff Miller made to the Associated Press.

“If they’re spending a lot of time on Capitol Hill trying to encourage Congress to engage in our collective bargaining negotiations, we can’t just abdicate the playing field,” Miller told AP.

 

[lards]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

I'm going to the states next year, first time overseas and was hoping to see a few NFL and NBA games. FML if both leagues have a lockout. ****kk

 

[exe ex machina]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

UFL

 

[Dagless]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

A lot of posturing going on atm.

Neither side wants it to get to that point and I doubt it will.

 

[usalion]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

You'll probably see training camps not open- maybe even a week or two of the season lost....but both sides know they have the golden egg, and need to reach a fair agreement for both sides. Owners can yelp about stadia cost, but players have the health care card on their side.

A compromise will be worked out, probably involving severe restrictions on rookie contracts- you'll earn your payday by performing in the league.

 

[lards]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

UFL

haha no way, still have mlb or nhl which I like but much prefer the other two sports. Also hoping to see some college sports but from what ive seen most colleges aren't the major cities which is where i'll mostly be. If they go ahead with the lockout, will the whole season be over or can they start after halfway? The NBA season in the 1998 started in February but the NFL season doesn't have as many games so would they bother with a 8-10 game season? 5 billion is probably too much to lose and hopefully they just come to an agreement.

 

[aussiedude]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

well i hope that if there is a lockout there would be college football on sundays also, so we can get more college football

 

[aussiedude]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

and what does that mean for Lucas Oil Stadium where it says in one of the endzones "Home of the 2012 superbowl" would they still get the SB, or would they not get one?

 

[Burningleviathan]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

Probably helps the interim coaches if things hod off until training camp or after. Would be difficult for a new coach to come in, evaluate players and try new schemes if they only have a few weeks to do things.

 

[JeffDunne]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

The union will drag this out for as long as they can.

They really have nothing to gain by not doing so.

Frankly I couldn't give a toss about the owner's bottom line. Most have made & continue to make a mint out of the game. I also don't have a problem with rookie contracts either. For many players it's the only contract they'll ever get for their college career. Politically it'll be a tough sell too.

Too many people make far too much money from the game for there to be a lockout.

 

[usalion]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

2012 SB- well, if there is anything of a season and then a title game, surely it goes there. However, if the whole season is gone and there is no SB, then Lucas Oil has to wait a few seasons, as the NFL has picked sites for a couple years ahead- can't remember how far, but definitely one or two

As for interim coaches- or coaches on the hot seat at the end of this season- owners will not want to pay extra coaches, so I'd expect the interim tags to stay in place until this is resolved.

 

[catters078]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

Im a massvie NHL fan, and was shattered when the lock out cancelled the season in 2004 and 05. NFL is the big dog in american sports, cant imagine what it would be like over there without it.

Zarko even though neither sides wants it to happen, dont underestimate how each side will refuse to budge or compromise for money..the union and players wont give one inch, so i think it will depend on what the owners are prepared to agree on.

 

[Dagless]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

Im a massvie NHL fan, and was shattered when the lock out cancelled the season in 2004 and 05. NFL is the big dog in american sports, cant imagine what it would be like over there without it.

Zarko even though neither sides wants it to happen, dont underestimate how each side will refuse to budge or compromise for money..the union and players wont give one inch, so i think it will depend on what the owners are prepared to agree on.

Arguably the players have more to lose. The union keeps on going on about how much money 'America' will lose, ignoring the fact that if money isn't spent on the NFL, it will be spent by people elsewhere. The stadiums will be rented out, albeit less often for various events without the necessity of weekly or by-weekly NFL games. Both sides are losing out, but it would be harder for players to recuperate losses over a short span of time than the owners and continue to make revenue from other sources.

Neither side wins, neither side loses toe other. Neither side want it to go anywhere near strike. Chestbeaters unite. Far too early for actual threats.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

Peyton Hillis isn't impressed

 

[exe ex machina]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

......

Mort on the SVP show yesterday said he thinks the NFL will be a 9 game season next year due to labor interuptions, with 18 games set for 2012.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

I'd do, play your divisional rivals twice (6 games)
play the teams with the same divisional seed in the conferance

(Falcons-Eagles-Bears-Rams)
(Saints-Giants-Packers-Seahawks)
(Buccaneers-Cowboys-Lions-49ers)
(Panthers-Redskins-Vikings-Cardinals)
(Colts-Patriots-Steelers-Chiefs)
(Jaguars-Jets-Ravens-Chargers)
(Titans-Dolphins-Browns-Raiders)
(Texans-Bills-Bengals-Broncos)

there, 9 games

 

[DB10]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

9 game season = uneven number of home and away games.

Mort's talking crap.

 

[exe ex machina]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

uneven doesnt matter.

The 1987 NFL season, a 24-day players' strike reduced the 16-game season to 15.

The 1982 NFL season, as a result of the strike, the schedule was reduced from 16 games to nine.

 

[greennick]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

I'd do, play your divisional rivals twice (6 games)
play the teams with the same divisional seed in the conferance

(Falcons-Eagles-Bears-Rams)
(Saints-Giants-Packers-Seahawks)
(Buccaneers-Cowboys-Lions-49ers)
(Panthers-Redskins-Vikings-Cardinals)
(Colts-Patriots-Steelers-Chiefs)
(Jaguars-Jets-Ravens-Chargers)
(Titans-Dolphins-Browns-Raiders)
(Texans-Bills-Bengals-Broncos)

there, 9 games

Horrible. Too much weighting against teams with high divisional seeds.

 

[matt18]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

man 9 games would be better than nothing

 

[usalion]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

You can talk about how many games, but the 2011 schedule will be drawn up shortly- dates for the stadia have to be set, especially when you have things like college bowl games in December, high school championship (thinking Dallas and Atlanta) and other events.

No way will the NFL be able to juggle things and set up the sort of schedule being proposed- it will be pot luck, based on what the schedule says at the end of the year. Divisions would probably be meaningless in such a short schedule- I think in 1983, everybody fell together in two leagues, with the top eight taken for the playoffs.

Yes, somebody will probably get screwed by it, but tis the nature of the beast- you can't sit down when a strike is settled and say "This will be the schedule we will use, starting in three weeks."

 

[Blue York]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

The league negotiated agreements with broadcast networks News Corp.’s Fox, CBS Corp., General Electric Co.’s NBC, Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN and DirecTV that will pay the NFL about $4 billion in television revenue whether games are played or not.

WTF?

So they hold out and get paid the TV rights anyway? Still getting a major revenue stream but without the expenses of paying players and operating staduims. Either way the owners make bank.

Why would a TV rights holder agree to pay for TV rights regardless of whether games are played, and create an incentive for a lockout? I hope they get a discount on the overall rights if they agree to this insurance clause for the league.

Can anyone explain this because it doesn't add up to me.

 

[drd23]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

WTF?

So they hold out and get paid the TV rights anyway? Still getting a major revenue stream but without the expenses of paying players and operating staduims. Either way the owners make bank.

Why would a TV rights holder agree to pay for TV rights regardless of whether games are played, and create an incentive for a lockout? I hope they get a discount on the overall rights if they agree to this insurance clause for the league.

Can anyone explain this because it doesn't add up to me.

I cant explain it, but it certainly is the case.

Its a major part of the reason why a lockout is a bigger chance than many fans realise. Sure the owners will lose the gameday revenue streams (tickets, parking, concessions etc) but they also lose most of their costs (paying players, gameday costs) so the owners will be making money from their teams during the lockout. Then there is also the fact that football is not the only business for most of the owners, so they have other income streams to offset the reduced income from football, whilst the players would only have their savings (if they have any) in most cases.

 

[Blue York]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/commentary/news/story?page=munson/100617

So far, that's the only setback the owners have experienced. But now, their second maneuver -- the move involving broadcast deals -- is in similar legal jeopardy as the result of a fiendishly clever attack on the league's TV contracts led by players' union chief DeMaurice Smith and the union's lead attorney, Jeffrey Kessler of the law firm of Dewey & LeBoeuf.

So it seems the NFL did forego money in the negotiated TV rights for this clause. And the NFLPA are going after them on it as their contract stipulates the NFL will negotiate in good faith to maximize revenue streams.

I guess the bigger point is that a strike is looking inevitable.

 

[exe ex machina]

Re: NFL Lockout 'A Certainty'

Anyone know what the implications of a lockout are in regards to the NFL-affiliated UFL?

Would we see a ton of NFL players on contract for NFL teams, locked-out, plying their trade in the UFL during the 2011 season?

If so, this is why I think the NFL can shoot itself in the foot being too greedy, allowing the UFL to gain a foothold. The fans is the key, they spend so much money on merchandise, tickets, cable, etc to follow their teams, the prices extremely high, and the UFL significantly lower, more fan-friendly naturally. Plus, the UFL rules are a bit more old-school than the NFL under Goodell.