Strategy Lukosius All In POLL

[GrommoT]

I reckon if you were to have any hope of turning 3 picks in the teens into pick 1 you'd have to start by trading two of them to another team for a pick around 5, and then on-trade that pick, and a later (or future) first rounder for pick 1.

Highly doubt that a team with pick 1 and the chance to get Jack would want to trade all the way out of the top 10 or 12, even for 3 good pix.

Know any teams like that?

 

[Thetrader15]

Especially if he’s considered a future leader.

Any good kids from Geelong way?

 

[Thetrader15]

If we end up with 4 top 20 picks, I can see us trading for a gaff type. We aren't the rebuild type of club

 

[hey shorty]

If we end up with 4 top 20 picks, I can see us trading for a gaff type. We aren't the rebuild type of club

If he goes anywhere it'll be to a Vic club.

We COULD have as many as 5 top 20 picks if the tea leaves are right about Sloane and Lynch. I don't recall many non-expansion clubs having selections like that. Now THAT is a warchest.

Even if you only got 3 of those right it sets you up for years, And with the SA talent around this is the year to do it.

 

[GrommoT]

This is an interesting post from Knightmare looking at what pick 1 might be worth.

Pick 1 this year is more valuable than in years past.
It's also a year you're be crazy to trade the top pick (and not take Lukosius) and likely in the future get denigrated for the move of. If you have two key forwards already, use him as Adelaide use Tom Lynch.
If that club with the top pick does move it, you have to look at which club needs it most and has the most to offer.

For a Lukosius he probably develops more rapidly and becomes a better player long term if he joins a club with more veterans and more experience, because he'll have guys to learn off v a young team where he doesn't - as per past early picks.

Crows: TICK!

Who needs that key forward? Collingwood and Geelong more than most but cases could be made for any club.

Crows: KPF is probably not the most urgent need but he's SA!

Also looking at the recent U18 game v.WA, Jack looks to have superb timing in when to present himself for a lead when a teammate has a chance to kick the ball into the F50. Can see that Jack positions himself outside of the play during a ball up and waits/reads the play to know when to run into position for the best chance of a teammate delivering the ball to him to mark it to advantage.

This I think is a big weakness of the Crows at the moment - often we have someone with a chance to to kick into the F50 and we have no one able to provide a lead really well. We then end up being held up or bomb it in high to 50/50 or worse contests.

What should they give up? What is roughly the value?
Collingwood should be willing to offer one of Moore/De Goey, a first round choice and a second round choice.
Geelong don't really have enough good players in the right age group, but they should be willing to give up a first round pick, Duncan and Cockatoo.

A single player that is young, considered/shown to have good potential and hasn't quite had a break out yet (so someone like Gov or The Dude at the Crows - not an option but!) plus a r1 pick and r2 pick.

Or two lesser experienced players (2 of Sloane, Lynch, CEY, Hartigan, Atkins, Kelly, ???) plus a r1 pick.

Even with those offers I wouldn't be accepting if I can get Lukosius, but that is around what the expected worth would be.

 

[kulak]

Here's all the potential key position forwards drafted in the top 5 since 1999.

1999
4. Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle)

2000
1. Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)
2. Justin Koschitzke (St Kilda)
5. Andrew McDougall (West Coast)

2001
4. Graham Polak (Fremantle)

2002
4. Tim Walsh (Western Bulldogs)

2003
nil

2004
2. Jarryd Roughead (Hawthorn)
5. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn)

2005
4. Josh Kennedy (Carlton)

2006
2. Scott Gumbleton (Essendon)

2007
5. Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs)

2008
1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)
5. Michael Hurley (Essendon)

2009
nil

2010
3. Sam Day (Gold Coast)

2011
1. Jonathon Patton (GWS)

2012
5. Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs)

2013
1. Tom Boyd (GWS)

2014
1. Paddy McCartin (St Kilda)

2015
1. Jacob Weitering (Carlton)
2. Josh Schache (Brisbane)

2016
nil

2017
nil

Here are the other good key forwards in recent years and where they came from:
- Jack Riewoldt (pick 13, 2006)
- Tom Lynch (pick 11, 2010)
- Taylor Walker (Adelaide NSW scholarship)
- Jonathon Brown (Brisbane father-son)
- Tom Hawkins? (Geelong father-son)
- Travis Cloke? (Collingwood father-son)
- Jeremy Cameron? (GWS pre-list)
- Jesse Hogan? (Melbourne mini-draft, 2012)
- Joe Daniher? (Essendon father-son)

Take-away?

You can get a nice role player like Gunston or McGovern or our Tom Lynch with a later pick.

The KPFs who are THE MAN to lead a forward line almost entirely come from
- top 5 pick
- some kind of pre-draft selection

The only exceptions being Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch (GC).

This is why if we could trade picks 15, 16 and 17 to get pick 1 - and our recruiters are confident Lukosius is that good - then we should do it.

It is also why the holder of pick 1 won't do it, unless their recruiters think they know something ours don't.

 

[Knightmare]

This is an interesting post from Knightmare looking at what pick 1 might be worth.





Crows: TICK!


Crows: KPF is probably not the most urgent need but he's SA!

Also looking at the recent U18 game v.WA, Jack looks to have superb timing in when to present himself for a lead when a teammate has a chance to kick the ball into the F50. Can see that Jack positions himself outside of the play during a ball up and waits/reads the play to know when to run into position for the best chance of a teammate delivering the ball to him to mark it to advantage.

This I think is a big weakness of the Crows at the moment - often we have someone with a chance to to kick into the F50 and we have no one able to provide a lead really well. We then end up being held up or bomb it in high to 50/50 or worse contests.


A single player that is young, considered/shown to have good potential and hasn't quite had a break out yet (so someone like Gov or The Dude at the Crows - not an option but!) plus a r1 pick and r2 pick.

Or two lesser experienced players (2 of Sloane, Lynch, CEY, Hartigan, Atkins, Kelly, ???) plus a r1 pick.

Going on with this theory about draftees playing better on better teams.

Look at Joel Selwood developing on Geelong (had Harley/Ling and a lot of experience). Pendlebury developing on Collingwood (had Buckley/Maxwell/Burns and a lot of experience). Adelaide developed Dangerfield. So it's often those teams with the veteran experience that develop talents better. Then you have your pick 1s mostly underachieving - Watts on Melbourne, Gibbs and Kreuzer for Carlton, Scully on Melbourne, Swallow on Gold Coast. And it's not the least bit surprising with such young, inexperienced teams without those veterans who can help them develop.

If a good team take Lukosius v a bad team, it may be the difference between him becoming like Tom Lynch (Adelaide) and Nick Riewoldt. That's the rough floor v ceiling. And if an Adelaide or equivalent established side were to take him, you're much more likely to get than ceiling than if a Brisbane were to get him.

Adelaide wouldn't be stupid to offer x4 first round picks for him.

 

[hey shorty]

Going on with this theory about draftees playing better on better teams.

Look at Joel Selwood developing on Geelong (had Harley/Ling and a lot of experience). Pendlebury developing on Collingwood (had Buckley/Maxwell/Burns and a lot of experience). Adelaide developed Dangerfield. So it's often those teams with the veteran experience that develop talents better. Then you have your pick 1s mostly underachieving - Watts on Melbourne, Gibbs and Kreuzer for Carlton, Scully on Melbourne, Swallow on Gold Coast. And it's not the least bit surprising with such young, inexperienced teams without those veterans who can help them develop.

If a good team take Lukosius v a bad team, it may be the difference between him becoming like Tom Lynch (Adelaide) and Nick Riewoldt. That's the rough floor v ceiling. And if an Adelaide or equivalent established side were to take him, you're much more likely to get than ceiling than if a Brisbane were to get him.

Adelaide wouldn't be stupid to offer x4 first round picks for him.

We would be stupid to do that, incredibly so.

Our midfield depth isn't going to get is anywhere in a hurry, particularly if Sloane leaves and Brouch no certainty to have a decent career.

Luko is already a gun, but giving away 4 first rounders when we haven't exactly been at the pointy end of a draft in many many years, is list suicide.

 

[kulak]

Going on with this theory about draftees playing better on better teams.

Look at Joel Selwood developing on Geelong (had Harley/Ling and a lot of experience). Pendlebury developing on Collingwood (had Buckley/Maxwell/Burns and a lot of experience). Adelaide developed Dangerfield. So it's often those teams with the veteran experience that develop talents better. Then you have your pick 1s mostly underachieving - Watts on Melbourne, Gibbs and Kreuzer for Carlton, Scully on Melbourne, Swallow on Gold Coast. And it's not the least bit surprising with such young, inexperienced teams without those veterans who can help them develop.

If a good team take Lukosius v a bad team, it may be the difference between him becoming like Tom Lynch (Adelaide) and Nick Riewoldt. That's the rough floor v ceiling. And if an Adelaide or equivalent established side were to take him, you're much more likely to get than ceiling than if a Brisbane were to get him.

Adelaide wouldn't be stupid to offer x4 first round picks for him.

St Kilda were bad when they recruited Nick Riewoldt.

Hawthorn were bad when the drafted Lance Franklin.

Probably the two best key forwards of the last 20 years!

Think you need a more dispassionate data analysis to say there's any significant trend here. If you are just picking out examples you may be right but it's hard to distinguish from confirmation bias.

 

[GrommoT]

Adelaide wouldn't be stupid to offer x4 first round picks for him.

Yikes!!!

 

[On The Crouch]

We would be stupid to do that, incredibly so.

Our midfield depth isn't going to get is anywhere in a hurry, particularly if Sloane leaves and Brouch no certainty to have a decent career.

Luko is already a gun, but giving away 4 first rounders when we haven't exactly been at the pointy end of a draft in many many years, is list suicide.

If you give up 4 1st round picks for no. 1 it doesn’t allow you to replenish your list. It means you will either have to keep 3 “deadwood” players on your list (I.e. Hampton, Cheney, Otten etc.) or pick up 3 players late in the draft using pick 100. It maybe offset slightly if we were somehow able to pick up a free agent like JGov (unlikely though). It leaves your list very thin.

Geelong were able to build a successful era through the 2001 draft with a combination of picks such as Bartel, Kelly, Steve J, G Ablett (f/s). If they gave up some of these draft picks for Hodge it’s highly doubtful they would have been anywhere nearly as successful as they were.

It would be disastrous if Lukosios did a knee or some other injury that prevented him from reaching his potential.

 

[Knightmare]

We would be stupid to do that, incredibly so.

Our midfield depth isn't going to get is anywhere in a hurry, particularly if Sloane leaves and Brouch no certainty to have a decent career.

Luko is already a gun, but giving away 4 first rounders when we haven't exactly been at the pointy end of a draft in many many years, is list suicide.

I'm not talking 4 early first round picks. That's taking in the knowledge that Adelaide will finish high, as will Melbourne. Compensation for anyone that leaves will be late first round and next years pick would also be late first round.

Depends how much you want someone who could be a greater, much sweeter kicking version of Nick Riewoldt.

Mids can be had anywhere. You can get them as rookies, mid-late draft.

Clubs tend to let good mids fall later than they should each year - with those genuine contested ball winners not rated nearly high enough of club draft boards with clubs focused on list balance and filling their list needs.

If Adelaide can get Lukosius for less, fantastic. But that's what how much I consider him to be worth.

 

[SuperBashBros]

I agree with Knightmare that Lukocious wont develop as well as he could if Carlton take him. That club is devoid of any leadership, especially if Murph goes.

If he gets drafted and is expected to hold the key post for a cellar dweller its unfortunate

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GROTTO]

I agree with Knightmare that Lukocious wont develop as well as he could if Carlton take him. That club is devoid of any leadership, especially if Murph goes.

If he gets drafted and is expected to hold the key post for a cellar dweller its unfortunate

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

But then his value will plummet and we will get a lot cheaper in 2-3 years time than paying overs for him this year.

I have strong faith in Carlton making and developing a player like Lukocious to look average.

 

[Crow till I die]

If you give up 4 1st round picks for no. 1 it doesn’t allow you to replenish your list. It means you will either have to keep 3 “deadwood” players on your list (I.e. Hampton, Cheney, Otten etc.) or pick up 3 players late in the draft using pick 100. It maybe offset slightly if we were somehow able to pick up a free agent like JGov (unlikely though). It leaves your list very thin.

Geelong were able to build a successful era through the 2001 draft with a combination of picks such as Bartel, Kelly, Steve J, G Ablett (f/s). If they gave up some of these draft picks for Hodge it’s highly doubtful they would have been anywhere nearly as successful as they were.

It would be disastrous if Lukosios did a knee or some other injury that prevented him from reaching his potential.

If there was a way of trading out our 1st round picks this year and next year and includes lynch and the carlton 2nd rounder to get lukosius and rankine in this draft..would it be worth it? (bearing in mind we could still grab some good kids with the late 30's pick and our later picks + lochowiak from the academy)

 

[GreyCrow]

Brisbane, Carlton and St Kilda would have fire damage at the clubrooms if they traded out the Number 1 pick

 

[Mike Smyth]

Wherever he goes, given he trained with Port, would they be his club of choice if he wishes to return home?

 

[Golumless]

Wherever he goes, given he trained with Port, would they be his club of choice if he wishes to return home?

Not necessarily. He trained with Port because he's at WWT*.

If/When he comes home, it'll be to whoever between us and Port can offer more.

* Same reasoning as to why we have a son of a 220 game ex Magpie in our academy.

 

[On The Crouch]

If there was a way of trading out our 1st round picks this year and next year and includes lynch and the carlton 2nd rounder to get lukosius and rankine in this draft..would it be worth it? (bearing in mind we could still grab some good kids with the late 30's pick and our later picks + lochowiak from the academy)

I must admit I’m no expert with respect to u18 players because I don’t watch any of the games. I just read all the experts opinions and watch some highlights packages.

However, Based on current ladder positions.

In: Lukosius and Rankine
Out: Lynch, #10, #16, #19 (2018), ~#15 (2019)

That is a lot of assets to give up for 2 untried 18 year olds. I much prefer to diversify risk myself, but each to their own.

If we could get some picks coming back in the 30-50 range in 2018 we could still pick up some good players given it’s considered a very strong draft.

 

[hey shorty]

I'm not talking 4 early first round picks. That's taking in the knowledge that Adelaide will finish high, as will Melbourne. Compensation for anyone that leaves will be late first round and next years pick would also be late first round.

Depends how much you want someone who could be a greater, much sweeter kicking version of Nick Riewoldt.

Mids can be had anywhere. You can get them as rookies, mid-late draft.

Clubs tend to let good mids fall later than they should each year - with those genuine contested ball winners not rated nearly high enough of club draft boards with clubs focused on list balance and filling their list needs.

If Adelaide can get Lukosius for less, fantastic. But that's what how much I consider him to be worth.

Fair call, and thanks for the input

 

[Redleg Crow]

Here's all the potential key position forwards drafted in the top 5 since 1999.

1999
4. Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle)

2000
1. Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)
2. Justin Koschitzke (St Kilda)
5. Andrew McDougall (West Coast)

2001
4. Graham Polak (Fremantle)

2002
4. Tim Walsh (Western Bulldogs)

2003
nil

2004
2. Jarryd Roughead (Hawthorn)
5. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn)

2005
4. Josh Kennedy (Carlton)

2006
2. Scott Gumbleton (Essendon)

2007
5. Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs)

2008
1. Jack Watts (Melbourne)
5. Michael Hurley (Essendon)

2009
nil

2010
3. Sam Day (Gold Coast)

2011
1. Jonathon Patton (GWS)

2012
5. Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs)

2013
1. Tom Boyd (GWS)

2014
1. Paddy McCartin (St Kilda)

2015
1. Jacob Weitering (Carlton)
2. Josh Schache (Brisbane)

2016
nil

2017
nil

Here are the other good key forwards in recent years and where they came from:
- Jack Riewoldt (pick 13, 2006)
- Tom Lynch (pick 11, 2010)
- Taylor Walker (Adelaide NSW scholarship)
- Jonathon Brown (Brisbane father-son)
- Tom Hawkins? (Geelong father-son)
- Travis Cloke? (Collingwood father-son)
- Jeremy Cameron? (GWS pre-list)
- Jesse Hogan? (Melbourne mini-draft, 2012)
- Joe Daniher? (Essendon father-son)

Take-away?

You can get a nice role player like Gunston or McGovern or our Tom Lynch with a later pick.

The KPFs who are THE MAN to lead a forward line almost entirely come from
- top 5 pick
- some kind of pre-draft selection

The only exceptions being Jack Riewoldt and Tom Lynch (GC).

This is why if we could trade picks 15, 16 and 17 to get pick 1 - and our recruiters are confident Lukosius is that good - then we should do it.

It is also why the holder of pick 1 won't do it, unless their recruiters think they know something ours don't.

Or you could look at that list and think you need more than one gun key forward to win a premiership and so it's better to build a team around 2-3 gun first rounders than 1 pick 1?

4. Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle) - NO FLAG
1. Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda) - NO FLAG
2. Justin Koschitzke (St Kilda) - NO FLAG
5. Andrew McDougall (West Coast) - NO FLAG
4. Graham Polak (Fremantle) - NO FLAG
4. Tim Walsh (Western Bulldogs) - NO FLAG
2. Jarryd Roughead (Hawthorn) - FLAG
5. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) - FLAG
4. Josh Kennedy (Carlton) - NO FLAG
2. Scott Gumbleton (Essendon) - NO FLAG
5. Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs) - NO FLAG
1. Jack Watts (Melbourne) - NO FLAG
5. Michael Hurley (Essendon) - NO FLAG
3. Sam Day (Gold Coast) - NO FLAG
1. Jonathon Patton (GWS) - NO FLAG (yet)
5. Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs) - FLAG
1. Tom Boyd (GWS) - FLAG (with Bulldogs)

(nice work btw)

 

[GrommoT]

Or you could look at that list and think you need more than one gun key forward to win a premiership and so it's better to build a team around 2-3 gun first rounders than 1 pick 1?

4. Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle) - NO FLAG
1. Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda) - NO FLAG
2. Justin Koschitzke (St Kilda) - NO FLAG
5. Andrew McDougall (West Coast) - NO FLAG
4. Graham Polak (Fremantle) - NO FLAG
4. Tim Walsh (Western Bulldogs) - NO FLAG
2. Jarryd Roughead (Hawthorn) - FLAG
5. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) - FLAG
4. Josh Kennedy (Carlton) - FLAG (With WC)
2. Scott Gumbleton (Essendon) - NO FLAG
5. Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs) - NO FLAG
1. Jack Watts (Melbourne) - NO FLAG
5. Michael Hurley (Essendon) - NO FLAG
3. Sam Day (Gold Coast) - NO FLAG
1. Jonathon Patton (GWS) - NO FLAG (yet)
5. Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs) - FLAG
1. Tom Boyd (GWS) - FLAG (with Bulldogs)

(nice work btw)

Well, we've completed Part A**



** The Fog

 

[Sidthehat]

Or you could look at that list and think you need more than one gun key forward to win a premiership and so it's better to build a team around 2-3 gun first rounders than 1 pick 1?

4. Matthew Pavlich (Fremantle) - NO FLAG
1. Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda) - NO FLAG
2. Justin Koschitzke (St Kilda) - NO FLAG
5. Andrew McDougall (West Coast) - NO FLAG
4. Graham Polak (Fremantle) - NO FLAG
4. Tim Walsh (Western Bulldogs) - NO FLAG
2. Jarryd Roughead (Hawthorn) - FLAG
5. Lance Franklin (Hawthorn) - FLAG
4. Josh Kennedy (Carlton) - FLAG (With WC)
2. Scott Gumbleton (Essendon) - NO FLAG
5. Jarrad Grant (Western Bulldogs) - NO FLAG
1. Jack Watts (Melbourne) - NO FLAG
5. Michael Hurley (Essendon) - NO FLAG
3. Sam Day (Gold Coast) - NO FLAG
1. Jonathon Patton (GWS) - NO FLAG (yet)
5. Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs) - FLAG
1. Tom Boyd (GWS) - FLAG (with Bulldogs)

(nice work btw)

Early call on WC flag

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Early call on WC flag

My thoughts exactly. Kennedy has only played in a losing Grand Final.

 

[Truck25]

So if things fall our way would you realistically take Lukosius or 3 of Rankine/Hately/Rozee/Valente/Sparrow.
he's good but that is at the cost of setting our side up for the next 12-13 years