Opinion Making the Case For Second Place

[HoneyBadger35]

With another dominant win this week, coupled with Fremantle's loss to the tin rattlers from Arden street, the Eagles are just 2 points back from first place. Firstly, take a moment to reflect on this; weigh your preseason expectations with your current expectations and congratulate the club for the massive strides they've made this year. I'll give you a second.

Done? Good.

We know that this season is as close and unpredictable as an AFL season has been for quite some time. We know that you can never get too cute, or afford to rest players, or take a week off (Gold Coast game ). You might think you have first wrapped up in a neat little package and 'tank' the derby, only to find your team with neither forward line nor loose change with which to fend off a desperate 'football club'. The point is, the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry, and nothing should be taken for granted from here on in. Fremantle could stumble and we could finish first, or we could lose our next two games and fall to 4th. What looks most likely at this stage, at least in my opinion, is a second place finish. I'm not suggesting we should tank the Adelaide game and bank on the Saints as a win, or conversely beat Adelaide and rest the whole squad in round 23 - what I'm suggesting is simply that second place is the place to be if you want to make the Grand Final and, given what we've seen from this team this year, I would have us as favourites against 6 of the 7 other finalists we could meet on that one day in September/October. Making it is half the battle, and I'll back this group against anyone if they make it all the way.

For the purposes of this post, I'm assuming the ladder shakes out as such;
Fremantle (vs Melbourne, @ Port Adelaide) - 72
Eagles (@ Adelaide, vs St Kilda) - 66/70
Hawthorn (vs Brisbane, vs Carlton) - 64
Sydney (@St Kilda, vs GC) - 64

Well documented is that no side has won a flag from outside the top 4, so the composition and order of the 5-8 spots we'll assume to be irrelevant. Whilst that isn't strictly true, the fact is that since 2000 56/60 preliminary finalists have been top 4 teams. Since 2000, the Premiership has been spread as such;

1st - 6 flags (40%)
2nd - 6 flags (40%)
3rd - 3 flags (20%)
4th - 0 flags

Seemingly, you're statistically just as likely to win a flag from 2nd as you are from 1st. How does this apply to West Coast? Assuming the top 4 is as above, then week one of the finals would be Fremantle vs Sydney and West Coast vs Hawthorn, both in Perth. As has happened in 93% of semi finals since 2000, assuming the loser of the QFs wins their semi (likely hosting Richmond and Western Bulldogs respectively), there are 4 possible prelim matchups for the Eagles;

West Coast (win QF) vs Fremantle (lose QF, win Semi) (Subi)
West Coast (win QF) vs Sydney (lose QF, win Semi) (Subi)
Fremantle (win QF) vs West Coast (lose QF, win Semi) (Subi)
Sydney (win QF) vs West Coast (lose QF, win Semi) (SCG)

As tickets are allocated evenly in finals, there are no real 'home' crowds in the event of a derby final. In this event, 3/4 scenarios see the Eagles playing on their home deck with, at worst, a neutral crowd. One scenario has the Eagles playing a 3rd straight final and 4th straight game at Subi Oval. Whilst 'hosting' Fremantle does cost us a home ground advantage we'd enjoy over a non-WA club, the scenario of the two teams meeting in the finals seems likely so we'll just have to suck it up. Additionally, by finishing 2nd the Eagles will play Hawthorn early, with a second chance in hand should they need it, and only play them again should both sides make the Grand Final. Assuming West Coast enter as favourites against all teams bar Hawthorn, this early meeting might be a blessing in disguise.

Let's recap:

• Statistically as likely to win the flag in second as in first
• Statistically likely to make at least a prelim (56 of 60 Prelim finalists have been top 4)
• 75% chance our Round 22 trip to Adelaide is our last interstate trip until the MCG

Compare that with finishing 1st, where a shock loss hosting Sydney would see us needing to win a semi, then needing to beat Hawthorn at the MCG to make a Grand Final, with increased travel and several weeks away from home. No thanks.

Give me 2nd place please.

 

[Bigs]

Please let the Swans come to Subi with Goodes one more time... >_>

 

[lusheslewis]

You are probably right but I hope these thoughts don't even enter into the players'/coaches' minds.

Hawks winning the QF is a disaster for both WA sides, they have an unfair advantage with the GF at the MCG but that's just the way it is.

 

[HoneyBadger35]

You are probably right but I hope these thoughts don't even enter into the players'/coaches' minds.

Hawks winning the QF is a disaster for both WA sides, they have an unfair advantage with the GF at the MCG but that's just the way it is.

Courtesy of bombard

"Asked re finishing 1/2 chances and whether we'll manage players with rests: I haven't looked at the ladder to be honest. We'll look to see how players pull up. I don't think we'll play too many games with the list. We're not in a position where we can or need to do that. Two or three years in a row in this position, then perhaps. We're enjoying the ride we're on and I don't want to mess it up by managing players excessively.

Asked re minor premiership importance: It's all about Adelaide. We want to win this week, and we'll prepare our best side to do that. We'll finish as high as we can - if that's top, great - we have top 4 guaranteed and then I suppose we'd like top two."

I think some players would be aware, but I genuinely believe Simmo when he says he isn't looking at the ladder. Probably knows the importance of each game but doesn't go beyond that. Doubt the professionals buy into it too much, Simmo isn't old mate Ross The Boss with his grand plans where he can win and lose on demand to rig the season. Business as usual internally, just a thought for us going in to finals.

 

[midorigreenwood]

The dockers certainly need top spot more than us.

Thanks to the dogs for testing out our defense. The first half was finals like pressure and even though we were fumbly and cost several goals through turnovers ....it was nearly forgivable considering the circumstances. Wave after wave of footscray counterattack like a barbarian horde.

I don't think the team will have any fear of hawthorn after surviving that onslaught.

 

[lusheslewis]

If Hodge gets done for 3 weeks and one of their other key players picks up an injury next round then it will be interesting.

 

[Keys]

If Hodge gets done for 3 weeks and one of their other key players picks up an injury next round then it will be interesting.

I will run naked down Hay street if hodge goes for 3

Won't happen

 

[Dark Sharks]

Think i'd rather we played Hawthorn, we match up pretty well against them IMO.

Although seeing all the "racist" eagle fans boo Goodes again would be hilarious

 

[Keys]

Think i'd rather we played Hawthorn, we match up pretty well against them IMO.

Although the offended from booing Goodes again if he came over here is a delicious prospect

Booing goodes off the ground in his last ever game as a losing prelim finalist is a tantalising prospect

 

[Eagle got a win]

Think i'd rather we played Hawthorn, we match up pretty well against them IMO.

Although seeing all the "racist" eagle fans boo Goodes again would be hilarious

I'm with you on this one, it's weird but I don't want to play Sydney. If they got a full list up and about they would make it difficult for our defence.

Imagine Buddy Tippert Reid and Goodes
Yeah they haven't gelled yet but that's going to make a lot of miss matches. I'd be ok with it if we had EMac but we don't. Sydney is a side we don't want to play. I think they are going under the radar a bit this year. Had injuries, like a sleeping giant.

We match up better on the Hawks.
Stick with finishing second.

 

[YEOLO]

Providing we play Hawthorn and beat them, where would Richmond have to finish for the Hawks to play them the next week? Richmond are the team most likely to be able to knock out the Hawks, so IMO if Richmond manage to win that, that would be a dream scenario for us. Based on current form Hawthorn are the only team I wouldn't feel confident about beating at the MCG on Grand Final day.

 

[lmach]

For the sake of lmach's real life commitments, we must finish 2nd.

 

[bombard]

For the sake of lmach's real life commitments, we must finish 2nd.

Good point. Compelling and rich.

 

[Keys]

Providing we play Hawthorn and beat them, where would Richmond have to finish for the Hawks to play them the next week? Richmond are the team most likely to be able to knock out the Hawks, so IMO if Richmond manage to win that, that would be a dream scenario for us. Based on current form Hawthorn are the only team I wouldn't feel confident about beating at the MCG on Grand Final day.

6th or 7th

 

[bombard]

Quality post HoneyBadger35.

Weirdly there's real comfort to being at the top half of the ladder this year IMO - disproportionately high number of wrecking-ball teams in 5-8 for mine.

 

[King LeBron]

I couldn't handle a prelim against the Dockers. Losing to them and then having to watch them in a GF would probably be the most depressing period in football in my life.

 

[lewigie]

I couldn't handle a prelim against the Dockers. Losing to them and then having to watch them in a GF would probably be the most depressing period in football in my life.

Or how about smashing Sydney round 1, then smashing Freo in the grand final (if it works that way).

With Priddis winning the Brownlow.

My nerves would cop a beating but boy would it be worth it.

 

[King LeBron]

Or how about smashing Sydney round 1, then smashing Freo in the grand final (if it works that way).

With Priddis winning the Brownlow.

My nerves would cop a beating but boy would it be worth it.

Whatever happens, the week leading into each finals game is going to be torturous!

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Man, if Freo won the GF what a loss it would be for football in general. A bunch of scrubbers led by a scrubber coach.

 

[EagleEgo]

1st will probably meet the Swan in Perth. Then has a week rest to meet either Fremantle or Hawthorn in Perth before the Grand Final.
Other paths seem to be a bit more resistive!!!???

 

[oak79]

I like 2nd. Rather meet Hawks in week 1 than in a Prelim.

If we win, we get a Home Prelim v (not Hawks)
If we lose, we could conceivable play the next 2 finals in Perth with neutral prelim (if Freo win their first final).

 

[Suma Magic]

QF
1st gets to avoid back to back six day breaks - plays easier opponent.
2nd gets the Hawks off back to back 6 day breaks.

Advantage 1st

SFs
My analysis ignores this.

PFs
1st (if they win the QF) get to play on the Friday, potentially against a Hawks team coming to Perth for the second time in 2 weeks.
2nd gets to play on the Saturday.

Further advantage 1st.

1st is definitely better. Although I admit I am basing this off only 3 factors.

 

[Suma Magic]

But second doesn't seem so bad.

 

[bodazoka]

Chose first
Read the OP
Changed my mind

I am looking forward to a first home final v Hawthorn, that's the real test. If we win that one the belief in the group would be immense and it would almost guarantee a derby grand final!

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I'm with you on this one, it's weird but I don't want to play Sydney. If they got a full list up and about they would make it difficult for our defence.

Imagine Buddy Tippert Reid and Goodes


We match up better on the Hawks.
Stick with finishing second.

I think we match up well with Sydneys forward line

We have

Buddy - Schoefield / Gov
Tippett - Gov / Schoefield
Reid - if Buddy and Tippett play, Reid will play up the ground so I'd be happy for Shep or Wellingham to pick him up.
Goodes - Has slowed down and would be happy for Shep or Wellingham to match him up.