Racing Melbourne Cup 2017

[iluvparis]

Dampens mine:
https://www.racing.com/news/2017-08-21/cardinal-defeat-doesnt-dampen-cup-hopes

seth

At least he will run here before the Cup so will get a chance to show how he is traveled. But on that run he'd be 150/1.

Still - trainer has improved one about 100 lengths of a so-so lead up before

 

[Beardown1023]

What's the thoughts on this one?

 

[iluvparis]

What's the thoughts on this one?

1 - they get awful unders as it was $70 on betfair straight on the race and is still $44
2 - was scrubbed along about 1000m out on Saturday night and didn't really get going until very late (albeit blocked for a run). Think he will be way too slow

 

[Beardown1023]

1 - they get awful unders as it was $70 on betfair straight on the race and is still $44
2 - was scrubbed along about 1000m out on Saturday night and didn't really get going until very late (albeit blocked for a run). Think he will be way too slow

Thanks mate. Tried to find a replay but couldn't. Did find enough to jump on Defoe for the St. Leger though!
Assume it's the Australian owners loading up on it then.

 

[iluvparis]

Thanks mate. Tried to find a replay but couldn't. Did find enough to jump on Defoe for the St. Leger though!

If you have a TAB account with money in it you'll be able to watch the replay.

 

[sethlad]

Can't pot Wall of Fire off that run in Freer,gets it on protest anywhere else in world.
Placing gets him past the ballot & I know he was bought specifically for Flemington.
Ozzie & his advisors have a decent record at finding right type now after a slow start.
Will appreciate 2 miles,thought he actually quickened fairly well til he had his running taken

Defoe (13-8f) wins the Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2.25) @NewburyRacing and gains his fourth win of the season.Results https://t.co/GDxF4n28W3

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Can't pot Wall of Fire off that run in Freer,gets it on protest anywhere else in world.
Placing gets him past the ballot & I know he was bought specifically for Flemington.
Ozzie & his advisors have a decent record at finding right type now after a slow start.
Will appreciate 2 miles,thought he actually quickened fairly well til he had his running taken

Defoe (13-8f) wins the Geoffrey Freer Stakes (2.25) @NewburyRacing and gains his fourth win of the season.Results https://t.co/GDxF4n28W3

seth

Did you watch the first half of the race? Was under pressure 1000 out which is a HUGE concern for mine. Didn't seem to show a turn of foot at all and got going late when others were tiring. Also settled last and found trouble in an 8 horse race let alone 24.

He might have passed the ballot and been bought to target the race but I'd be staggered if he is good or fast enough. Looks like the kind of plodder who might run on to finish 4th but would be shocked if he was anywhere near a winning hope.

Also think no certainty he gets the race under Australian rules either.

 

[sethlad]

No I based my opinion on the last 200m.
Honestly I'd have been more surprised if you were a fan.

He's lightly raced & stays,at the price he was before the Freer,I'm happy enough.
Would I back him at $26,no.

seth

 

[iluvparis]

As always - if you can guarantee they stay they are generally too slow

 

[sethlad]

got going late when others were tiring. Also settled last and found trouble in an 8 horse race let alone 24.

Isn't that a positive in a stayer that he ran by tiring horses?
Chased leader in suicidal pace in Belmont cup so don't assume he's a backmarker off 1 run.
Interference was hardly his doing,went straight as as die til getting cut off.

This thread has always been about identifying horses who are likely to get here & get in the race.
Barring accidents he's coming & will be very close to making the field.
Have no say in whether he's good enough but a few guys clearly did.

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Isn't that a positive in a stayer that he ran by tiring horses?
Chased leader in suicidal pace in Belmont cup so don't assume he's a backmarker off 1 run.
Interference was hardly his doing,went straight as as die til getting cut off.

This thread has always been about identifying horses who are likely to get here & get in the race.
Barring accidents he's coming & will be very close to making the field.
Have no say in whether he's good enough but a few guys clearly did.

seth

No - for mine you need a turn of foot to win a Melbourne Cup.

I thought the thread was for finding the winner. Great that he is coming and will make the field but don't see why we can't have an opinion on whether or not he looks like the type of horse that wins a Melbourne Cup and whether the odds on offer are value- to me he doesn't and $26 is utter poison. Would expect him to start that or better on the day. Fair enough if you think otherwise.

 

[sethlad]

Not sure you've ever held back an opinion?

My point was simply that I've watched this horse closely as I was told he was likely to get here early this year. I feel I have a decent idea on his progression. He was poorly ridden in US race & that isnt my opinion, it came from the yard.
I figured this may be useful info for some people who aren't regular viewers of this thread.

For you it's about the winner,for me & a few others it's about trading yourself into a good position. Horse was $300 Betfair only 3 days ago so the fact hes now $40ish is not that relevant.

Clearly you disagree & im sure it won't be the last time.

seth

 

[iluvparis]

N Horse was $300 Betfair only 3 days ago so the fact hes now $40ish is not that relevant.

Not sure his price 3 days ago matters when all this analysis comes out AFTER some guy asks if he is a decent bet at $26.

Perhaps turn the clock back a week and a more relevant discussion would take place.

 

[sethlad]

Anyway,to those who got the $300,give it strength.
This board isn't what it used to be.

seth

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

When does Francis of Assisi run again? Got him at a good price. What weight does he get in the Cup?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

When does Francis of Assisi run again? Got him at a good price. What weight does he get in the Cup?

Ran the other night was a huge flop

 

[iluvparis]

Anyway,to those who got the $300,give it strength.
This board isn't what it used to be.

seth

Still seems the same to me with you coming into hype up the ones you've got overs on

I have the same respect for those posting stale prices as those who post winning bets after the fact.

Surely commenting on the true chances I think the horse has if it comes here doesn't subtract much from the discussion.

 

[iluvparis]

When does Francis of Assisi run again? Got him at a good price. What weight does he get in the Cup?

https://www.racingpost.com/results/23/haydock/2017-08-12/680968

Probably well short of his best trip but still a pretty average performance. Wasn't exactly strong through the line

 

[plays tall 1]

Here's an update on Lloyd's intentions for those who missed it:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/s...s/news-story/fc5c16c9264f510ab9f9359c6a7cf3c4

I suspect OOSG will be nominated with the expectation that he'll get 58kgs, and with no real intention to run. That might enable Almandin to get in lighter.

Aloft is well found in the market for the Melbourne Cup, but $101 with Luxbet looks appealing for the Caulfield Cup.

 

[iluvparis]

Surely Lloyd is taking the piss with the Caulfield Cup chat - he is petrified to run them half the time in fear of getting a penalty.

 

[plays tall 1]

Not sure you've ever held back an opinion?

My point was simply that I've watched this horse closely as I was told he was likely to get here early this year. I feel I have a decent idea on his progression. He was poorly ridden in US race & that isnt my opinion, it came from the yard.
I figured this may be useful info for some people who aren't regular viewers of this thread.

For you it's about the winner,for me & a few others it's about trading yourself into a good position. Horse was $300 Betfair only 3 days ago so the fact hes now $40ish is not that relevant.

Clearly you disagree & im sure it won't be the last time.

seth

Always happy to receive your insights Seth, and very happy to trade...not as exciting as backing the winner but great consolation!

Wall of Fire won over 1200m at Ascot on debut, which suggests he's got a better turn of foot than most English stayers that have preceded him out here for the Cup. And being by Canford Cliffs (albeit out of a Galileo mare) it's not surprising.

I think his last run had plenty of merit.

 

[iluvparis]

Always happy to receive your insights Seth, and very happy to trade...not as exciting as backing the winner but great consolation!

Wall of Fire won over 1200m at Ascot on debut, which suggests he's got a better turn of foot than most English stayers that have preceded him out here for the Cup. And being by Canford Cliffs (albeit out of a Galileo mare) it's not surprising.

I think his last run had plenty of merit.

Simenon was also competitive over 1400m at his first two starts but hardly converted to a dynamic stayer.

My main concern with WOF was that he was being pushed/scrubbed along 1000m out. Fine in an 8 horse field but very dangerous in a 24 horse 2 mile race. Do that at Flemington and you'll need a miracle from where he could find himself at the 800m mark.

His last furlong and a half were good when half the field were out of the race but if he repeats that pattern he will be so far back when it matters his finishing speed will be irrelevant.

I see he is $51 on the TAB which seems a much fairer price than what Sportsbet are offering.

 

[FFB1]

Where are the posts from this morning after the one above?

 

[sethlad]

Where are the posts from this morning after the one above?

Maybe it's against the rules to post a pic of a bet on a race thats 10 weeks away?

seth

 

[iluvparis]

Maybe it's against the rules to post a pic of a bet on a race thats 10 weeks away?

seth

It's against the rules to post stale prices.