Melbourne Cup True Odds

[starz]

The Mackinnon is over and another good result now onto the big one.
Having reviewed all lead up races and the many factors the true odds are now set.
Zipping comes in as clear top-rater, and deserved short priced favourite.
Why? Fastest, strongest galloper in the land and set for this race for 12 months. He ran in the Melbourne Cup last year and was only 80% right with jarred feet and was the best horse for 2900m only hitting a wall with 200m to go from barrier 22 to finish fourth.
Zipping 100% fit beats Zipping Melb Cup 2006 version by 5+ lengths.
Importantly he comes in to the race dropping 6kg after racing at WFA, he really will take some beating.

The only danger I identified was Pop Rock who confirmed to me he's the Worlds best stayer with his 3 runs since in Japans premier group 1's. Delta Blues has fallen away.
That leaves us with the current challengers.

Master Oreilly - In super form but short enough at $5.50, my concern with Master O is he's up in weights 2.5kg, while Zipping is coming down 6kg. This will tell in the last 100m.
On a Jeune - Very exciting staying powerhouse who is dangerous when 100% fit and put in his right race at 2400-3200. that's where he is now for the first time since 2005.
Gallic - tough stayer in fine form not helped by draw but loves the 3200m syd cup, Adel cup Melb Cup? it's possible.
Efficient - Back down in weights and will love the weight off his back, a frustrating lead-up and a chance to shine when it counts.
Purple Moon and Maybe Better are in with a chance, Maybe Better did finish strong yesterday and Oliver is a big race Melb Cup jockey but i can't have them.


True Odds
ZIPPING................3.10
MASTER OREILLY....8.50
ON A JEUNE...........13
GALLIC..................14
EFFICIENT.............15
MAYBE BETTER.......20
PURPLE MOON........25
SIRMIONE..............30
PRINCESS COUP......30
MAHLER.................40
ESKIMO QUEEN.......40
DOURO VALLEY.......40
SCULPTOR.............60
THE FUZZ..............60
TUNGSTEN STRIKE..70
BLUE MONDAY........70
DOLPHIN JO...........70
TAWQEET..............70
LAZER SHARP.........70
SARRERA...............70
BLUTIGEROO..........80
SCENIC SHOT........80
BLACK TOM...........300
RAILINGS..............500

I'm already on Zipping at 20/1 months ago but I can't claim that now, value is still there with current place odds similar to true win odds. Side bet is Zipping beating home Master OReilly but there are a lot of outside chances and if you like something else, throw it in.

P/L: +840 units
Zipping win 30 units @ 8+
MasterO win 10 @ 6
On a Jeune 5 @ 40
Gallic 10 @ 20+
Zipping place 30 units @ 3.20
On a Jeune place 10 units @ 8.5

 

[carltonblue]

That market would cost i shitloads

 

[Kirby]

If you were laying a book at those odds you would be buried in 20 metres of mud below the Westgate Bridge on Tuesday night.

I think Zipping is a top 5 chance at least but 3.10 is insane.

 

[Isandula]

3.10 is way to short for Zipping, I rate him as a very good chance for the cup but not that short. Princess Coup is looming as my dark horse, if in a good postion at the turn she has a very good chance.

 

[Bobby Beecroft]

Master Oreilly - In super form but short enough at $5.50, my concern with Master O is he's up in weights 2.5kg, while Zipping is coming down 6kg. This will tell in the last 100m.

What sort of reasoning is that?
So what one horse ran in a WFA race its previous start another didn't.

Honestly if you are going to the trouble to discount a horse give a genuine reason, thats just a waste of space. People who may punt once a year looking for a guide may actually think you are making a relevant point.

If MORs weight is a concern, state that, but using the last start weights difference when both ran in completely different types of races is a crock.

Another point - why do people persist in stating Zipping was set for this race 12 months ago. Its the MELBOURNE CUP you know the race that stops a nation, how many horses running in the race were not set for it?

In fact please list those running that were not set for the race for us all to see.

 

[the_fresh]

The Mackinnon is over and another good result now onto the big one.
Having reviewed all lead up races and the many factors the true odds are now set.
Zipping comes in as clear top-rater, and deserved short priced favourite.
Why? Fastest, strongest galloper in the land and set for this race for 12 months. He ran in the Melbourne Cup last year and was only 80% right with jarred feet and was the best horse for 2900m only hitting a wall with 200m to go from barrier 22 to finish fourth.
Zipping 100% fit beats Zipping Melb Cup 2006 version by 5+ lengths.
Importantly he comes in to the race dropping 6kg after racing at WFA, he really will take some beating.

The only danger I identified was Pop Rock who confirmed to me he's the Worlds best stayer with his 3 runs since in Japans premier group 1's. Delta Blues has fallen away.
That leaves us with the current challengers.

Master Oreilly - In super form but short enough at $5.50, my concern with Master O is he's up in weights 2.5kg, while Zipping is coming down 6kg. This will tell in the last 100m.
On a Jeune - Very exciting staying powerhouse who is dangerous when 100% fit and put in his right race at 2400-3200. that's where he is now for the first time since 2005.
Gallic - tough stayer in fine form not helped by draw but loves the 3200m syd cup, Adel cup Melb Cup? it's possible.
Efficient - Back down in weights and will love the weight off his back, a frustrating lead-up and a chance to shine when it counts.
Purple Moon and Maybe Better are in with a chance, Maybe Better did finish strong yesterday and Oliver is a big race Melb Cup jockey but i can't have them.


True Odds
ZIPPING................3.10
MASTER OREILLY....9.00
ON A JEUNE...........14
GALLIC..................15
EFFICIENT.............15
MAYBE BETTER.......20
PURPLE MOON........25
SIRMIONE..............30
PRINCESS COUP......30
MAHLER.................40
ESKIMO QUEEN.......40
DOURO VALLEY.......40
BLUTIGEROO..........60
SCULPTOR.............60
THE FUZZ..............60
TUNGSTEN STRIKE..70
BLUE MONDAY........70
DOLPHIN JO...........70
TAWQEET..............70
LAZER SHARP.........70
SARRERA...............70
BLUTIGEROO..........80
SCENIC SHOT........80
BLACK TOM...........300
RAILINGS..............500

I'm already on Zipping at 20/1 months ago but I can't claim that now, value is still there with current place odds similar to true win odds. Side bet is Zipping beating home Master OReilly but there are a lot of outside chances and if you like something else, throw it in.

P/L: +840 units
Zipping win 30 units @ 8+
MasterO win 10 @ 6
On a Jeune 5 @ 40
Gallic 10 @ 20+
Zipping place 30 units @ 3.20
On a Jeune place 10 units @ 8.5

Ok, first of all your market is at 102%, no Cup market will ever jump at 102%, you'll be lucky if it jumps at 130% last year every horse shorten to jump at 140%.
Second you have under rated the Caulfield cup form, which for over 150 years has been the best form guide to the Melbourne Cup.
Second you again have failed to rate WFA form.
Sarrera, Princess Coup, Douro Valley all have WFA form.
You've rated a horse at $14, he hasn't won for a very long time, coming off a long break and isn't a 20th of the horse he was when he ran a place behind Makybe Diva.
The form out of the MV cup is very good, you have Gallic at 15's yet Lazer Shape at 70's whos run in the MV cup was very good.
I've never seen a Caulfield cup place getter at 40's.
Your market again is very wrong, you'll be lucky to walk away with anything again.

Time to get it up I think.

 

[__Ron_]

Alright Starz, i owned you when you did the Cox Plate odds and lets see how we fare again.

True Odds
ZIPPING................ 10.00
MASTER OREILLY.... 1.30
ON A JEUNE........... 1000.00
GALLIC.................. 100.00
EFFICIENT............. 300.00
MAYBE BETTER....... 50.00
PURPLE MOON........ 30.00
SIRMIONE.............. 10.00
PRINCESS COUP...... 15.00
MAHLER................. 15.00
ESKIMO QUEEN....... 15.00
DOURO VALLEY....... 100.00
BLUTIGEROO.......... 1000.00
SCULPTOR............. 30.00
THE FUZZ.............. 30.00
TUNGSTEN STRIKE.. 15.00
BLUE MONDAY........ 15.00
DOLPHIN JO........... 1000.00
TAWQEET.............. 100.00
LAZER SHARP......... 1000.00
SARRERA............... 300.00
SCENIC SHOT........ 80.00
BLACK TOM........... 1000.00
RAILINGS.............. 1000.00

 

[starz]

_Ron_ your attempt at framing a market of around 160-200% is abysmal.
1.30 loses you all credibility anyway.

True odds had a good result in the Cox Plate showing a healthy profit with 3 of the first 4 top raters in the top 4 and picking the winner which paid 6/1.

'the_fresh' I have no idea where you get 140% for last years market from?

I could easily frame each true odds market to big unders and look like a genius but people who know what they're talking about and follow the true odds understand this and know the true odds will be set to a healthy market.

What it boils down to of course is: Selections & Profit/loss

 

[BunnyMoto]

Why such a big difference between Sirmione and Zipping? Surely Sirmione wouldn't be almost ten times the odds of Zipping especially since he actually meets him better at the weights for beating him in the MacKinnon.

 

[richcogs]

I've got my bets done. 25 dollars each way on Purple Moon and Princess Coup. Got Moon at 10 and Coup at 11.

 

[__Ron_]

_Ron_ your attempt at framing a market of around 160-200% is abysmal.
1.30 loses you all credibility anyway.

True odds had a good result in the Cox Plate showing a healthy profit with 3 of the first 4 top raters in the top 4 and picking the winner which paid 6/1.

Is that right Starz, funny how you went all quiet after the Cox Plate ran about your "true odds" and i wasn't trying to frame mine to 100% , it took me 1 minute to do that..... Anyway, this is a bit of fun and i like Zipping, great run on the weekend but remember Princess Coup AND Sirmione beat him home. Hes going to have to pass around 20 horses in the home straight to win tomorrow and you have him favourite. If anyone loses credability, it's you. I'm not saying he can't do it, but you have him clear cut favourite.....

 

[the_fresh]

Starz last years market (which I've kept data of all Melbourne races from 2003) was

5.00
15.00
31.00
5.00
13.00
51.00
101.00
16.00
101.00
101.00
15.00
6.50
13.00
16.00
101.00
41.00
101.00
31.00
51.00
34.00
20.00
34.00
8.00
=138%

so once again you're wrong.
The funny thing about last year was every horse came in a little bit in the market, which shows you that a bookie on cup day will never lose.

 

[starz]

2006 Melb cup at 138% you say...

Where did you get this because there was absolutely nowhere that bet as low as $5.00 on 2 favourites - Tawqeet/Yeats then Pop rock at 6.50

I reckon you made this up for sure, and where are the decimals?

 

[the_fresh]

2006 Melb cup at 138% you say...

Where did you get this because there was absolutely nowhere that bet as low as $5.00 on 2 favourites - Tawqeet/Yeats then Pop rock at 6.50

I reckon you made this up for sure, and where are the decimals?

Starz I keep the data, I always have.

Geez you're a little like a type writer IMO.
You need it punched into you.

 

[the_fresh]

And if you did want to bet with these odds.
My best would be 100 "units" on Master O'reilly, 75 "units" on Purple Moon & 50 "units" on Princess Coup.

30's and 25 for 2 horses that are in form and were great runs in the cauldfield cup, you really have no idea

 

[starz]

Starz I keep the data, I always have.

Geez you're a little like a type writer IMO.
You need it punched into you.

I'm absolutely certain you've made this up, dear oh dear.

Now you're avoiding the question and trying to divert the topic.
You said it was 'last years market' as though it's the official market.

Where did you get this 138% market from?

Why would you keep that as your 'data' anyway? lol

 

[the_fresh]

I'm absolutely certain you've made this up, dear oh dear.

Now you're avoiding the question and trying to divert the topic.
You said it was 'last years market' as though it's the official market.

Where did you get this 138% market from?

Why would you keep that as your 'data' anyway? lol

I like to keep all markets which I put into my sheets. they come in handy when you're doing the form. You can see which horse may of been backed, which horse was easy before doing nothing (which might be the reason).

Its all kept in excel so I never have to throw away my ratings.

 

[starz]

This is too funny... blatantly avoiding the questions.

I think it's pretty clear you're the laughing stock of the forum about now.
"Last years market" .... the 138% one, lol

I'll ask again and just try your very best to answer, it's very amusing.

Where did you get this 138% market from?

Why did you keep "that" 'data'?

 

[haywood jablome]

This is too funny... blatantly avoiding the questions.

I think it's pretty clear you're the laughing stock of the forum about now.
"Last years market" .... the 138% one, lol

I'll ask again and just try your very best to answer, it's very amusing.

Where did you get this 138% market from?

Why did you keep "that" 'data'?

Zipping is the laughing stock of all the horses he races against. He goes to the back of he field to get a pervert and chases everyone's asses around the bend trying to get a sniff.

 

[Fadge]

I for one can't fault the book supplied by the_fresh. Tawqueet was $4.5 and Yeats $5.5 on the Monday before the Cup and they evened up one word of the injury concern around Tawqueet got out. Pop Rock was backed in from $9 and actually thought it might have started shorter than $6.5 with some books. When you have a $30K trip to Dubai riding on the result of a race then you do tend to take more than a passing interest in the odds.

Centrebet, for example, currently have their market framed at 119% and it would be naive to think that bookies wouldn't frame it 20% worse than that simply through weight of bets (and it ain't difficult to do with a 23 horse field).

Once again starz you've proven that when you say something's black it is definitely black and if someone comes on and suggests that it's white or even a lighter shade of gey then they're a 'laughing stock'. If one of the benefits of 'True Odds' is that your market is framed at close to 100% well you should say that but as you have neglected to as part of your argument then we can all assume that it is just a Newbie mistake that you have made.

Maybe it's time to log in as your alter egos to support your argument...

 

[starz]

I was wondering why these 'new people' were following me around like a bad smell.

It's very clear now - im_the_gun = the_fresh & Fadge.

All as clueless as eachother non-coincidentally.

Centrebet was nowhere near 138, neither were the TABs.
So what exactly are you left with?

You know... the comment "last years market was 138%"
This itself really does say a lot about just how much you know about punting.

Last week you didn't even know what fixed odds were and now this.

So what's the answer? we're all ears.

Forget it, you're just flooding the thread and boring everyone with lies and stupidity.

 

[haywood jablome]

I was wondering why these 'new people' were following me around like a bad smell.

It's very clear now - im_the_gun = the_fresh & Fadge.

All as clueless as eachother non-coincidentally.

Centrebet was nowhere near 138, neither were the TABs.
So what exactly are you left with?

You know... the comment "last years market was 138%"
This itself really does say a lot about just how much you know about punting.

Last week you didn't even know what fixed odds were and now this.

So what's the answer? we're all ears.

Forget it, you're just flooding the thread and boring everyone with lies and stupidity.

Will you promise to STFU when Zipping doesn't win the MC?

 

[starz]

Just a brief summary of the true odds in what was a great race.

Efficient became the replacement with Gallic out both rated same odds and certainly did have Efficient on my team but obviously not fair if I claim that.

As rated a winning run from Zipping considering he was very unlucky to draw barrier 22 and this cost him many lengths and had to start a run at the 800, 4 wide, ran well with only jockey fatigue narrowly costing him a place.
Efficient, like I said three or four times here is a different horse with lighter weights and fired when it counted, while he was universally written off.
Zipping beats home hotpot MasterO as predicted in another good result.

top raters performed well including the winner Efficient.
Including scratchings, Efficient paid 24/1+ just about everywhere and was rated around 11/1 with true odds at low %.

Great race, worthy winner.

 

[johnnyhoward]

ZIPPING................3.10
MASTER OREILLY....8.50
ON A JEUNE...........13
GALLIC..................14
EFFICIENT.............15
MAYBE BETTER.......20
PURPLE MOON........25

No wins on this race today starz, but I'll give you credit for framing the top 7 there or thereabouts. If you take out the 2 scratchings, 5 of those 5 finished in the top 8.

 

[Ricketts]

faster stronger stablemate

......