Prediction Michael Barlow

[Danger in Texas]

How have the AFC been complacent exactly ? You say that the Crows have assumed they were getting a replacement from trade period?

I must have missed something ...

You'd think so, considering we got rid of a player that has actually performed well this year for peanuts

 

[Danger in Texas]

In what way were we "complacent" about Gibbs? I know he (allegedly) approached Adelaide, rather than the other way around - but why would Adelaide be approaching a player who is in the 2nd year of a 5 year contract? Yes, it would have been good if the deal got across the line, but I fully support the negotiation team for not being willing to give up the farm just for one player. The reason the deal didn't get across the line is that Carlton were completely unrealistic with what they expected in return. Not Adelaide's fault.

As for Barlow.. nobody knows why this deal has fallen apart, or even if it has. Adelaide are a closed shop. For all we know (which is precisely nothing), he may have failed the medical - in which case I fully support the decision not to sign him. Would I prefer that we signed him (all other things being equal)? Absolutely. But neither I, nor you, are in full awareness of the facts.

For the record, I'm happy we didn't give up two firsts for Gibbs. I'm also not absolutely fussed that we weren't able to get Michael Barlow.

What I'm not happy about is that we were complacent about getting a Lyons replacement. If we knew we weren't going after a midfielder that could help our best 22 this trade period, why the hell did we worsen our midfield by offering a perfectly fine best 22 mid less than he was worth? Fine if we could get a replacement, but once Lyons left, it's quite obvious that we weren't overly fussed about getting someone that could add to the 22. And before someone says CEY - there's no way that CEY next year will do better than Lyons did this year.

 

[Vader]

What I'm not happy about is that we were complacent about getting a Lyons replacement. If we knew we weren't going after a midfielder that could help our best 22 this trade period, why the hell did we worsen our midfield by offering a perfectly fine best 22 mid less than he was worth? Fine if we could get a replacement, but once Lyons left, it's quite obvious that we weren't overly fussed about getting someone that could add to the 22. And before someone says CEY - there's no way that CEY next year will do better than Lyons did this year.

Bolded bit is what I, and the club, have a problem with. You, and most of BigFooty, are chronically overrating Lyons. The reality is that he was one of the last few players selected each week, and the club was eager to move him on to make way for younger & better talent coming through (Milera/Doedee/Knight). They sold him for a price they thought accurately reflected his value as a player.

The issue is not Lyons making us weaker in the best 22. The issue is Lyons' departure, combined with the delisting of Grigg and downgrading of Thompson, leaving us lacking depth in the "inside mid" department. I agree that this is a concern, but a sign of complacency? No.

 

[ad victoriam]

For the record, I'm happy we didn't give up two firsts for Gibbs. I'm also not absolutely fussed that we weren't able to get Michael Barlow.

What I'm not happy about is that we were complacent about getting a Lyons replacement. If we knew we weren't going after a midfielder that could help our best 22 this trade period, why the hell did we worsen our midfield by offering a perfectly fine best 22 mid less than he was worth? Fine if we could get a replacement, but once Lyons left, it's quite obvious that we weren't overly fussed about getting someone that could add to the 22. And before someone says CEY - there's no way that CEY next year will do better than Lyons did this year.

But Milera, Menzel, Knights, Hampton, Seedsman, Wigg. All have the ability to add to the best 22. that is 6 players that can be added to last years finals team, who's missing out. And all of them can play the position Lyons played,

 

[Geoffa32]

Lyons stats look nice, but having him in our side whilst Hampton, Knight, Menzel and Seedsman struggled to get match fit is a big reason we lacked class at times.

Lyons is a good honest footballer. But he has reached his ceiling. For us to improve we need to see less of the of likes him and more of the other guys I mentioned.

It is the same reason we had to move on Kerridge and Wright. Like these two I expect Lyons to have a good 2017. Playing for a bottom four side.

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[baldandbroke]

You'd think so, considering we got rid of a player that has actually performed well this year for peanuts

Where did you rate Lyons in the scheme of things? What position in the midfield do you think he had sewn up in 2017? After Sloane, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch - the 4th midfielder? I really liked what Lyons brought in 2016, but I don't see it as a major issue to that he was replaced directly through trade. If I look at our list I see plenty of guys that can take his spot ... and maybe improve the mix in the middle. Maybe I'm under-estimating what JL delivered, or over-estimating what the likes of Greenwood / CEY / Hampton will bring? It did seem to me that the club was not very concerned with keeping Lyons, we have to assume that it was done consciously - surely?

 

[Danger in Texas]

Bolded bit is what I, and the club, have a problem with. You, and most of BigFooty, are chronically overrating Lyons. The reality is that he was one of the last few players selected each week, and the club was eager to move him on to make way for younger & better talent coming through (Milera/Doedee/Knight). They sold him for a price they thought accurately reflected his value as a player.

The issue is not Lyons making us weaker in the best 22. The issue is Lyons' departure, combined with the delisting of Grigg and downgrading of Thompson, leaving us lacking depth in the "inside mid" department. I agree that this is a concern, but a sign of complacency? No.

Me, and most of BigFooty, are not overrating a player who averaged 21.6 disposals, 4.7 tackles, 3.8 I50s and 4.2 tackles a game, and could also have an impact forward of centre. The only aspect of his game that I might say was overrated was his kicking efficiency - but then again, the majority of inside mids aren't the best kicks. He's not an average player, and thus is worth more than below average wage (i.e. what was offered to him). Because we would only offer him below average wage, plus the fact he was uncontracted, meant we got below his pure worth as a player. Not smart. The players that you named will not be directly replacing Lyons, they play different roles. It remains to be seen whether Gore, Greenwood etc will be good players or not, but for next year, it's likely any one of our depth inside mids will be a downgrade on Lyons' 2016 output. Lyons' departure without a direct replacement also likely means that Thommo gets more games, which is not a good thing at all.

It sure is complacency to me (in the short term, at least) if we're not just unwilling to upgrade an obvious weakness, but are willing to DOWNGRADE it.

 

[Danger in Texas]

But Milera, Menzel, Knights, Hampton, Seedsman, Wigg. All have the ability to add to the best 22. that is 6 players that can be added to last years finals team, who's missing out. And all of them can play the position Lyons played,

All, bar Wigg, play a different role to Lyons. They're outside (or outside-leaning) players, not inside-leaning types.

Have a couple of doubts on Wigg at this stage, but I'm not going to count him out by any means. His boot is glorious. Still, 2017 Wigg won't be an improvement on 2016 Lyons.

 

[Geoffa32]

Lyons is a poor man's VB.

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[Vader]

Me, and most of BigFooty, are not overrating a player who averaged 21.6 disposals, 4.7 tackles, 3.8 I50s and 4.2 tackles a game, and could also have an impact forward of centre. The only aspect of his game that I might say was overrated was his kicking efficiency - but then again, the majority of inside mids aren't the best kicks. He's not an average player, and thus is worth more than below average wage (i.e. what was offered to him). Because we would only offer him below average wage, plus the fact he was uncontracted, meant we got below his pure worth as a player. Not smart. The players that you named will not be directly replacing Lyons, they play different roles. It remains to be seen whether Gore, Greenwood etc will be good players or not, but for next year, it's likely any one of our depth inside mids will be a downgrade on Lyons' 2016 output. Lyons' departure without a direct replacement also likely means that Thommo gets more games, which is not a good thing at all.

It sure is complacency to me (in the short term, at least) if we're not just unwilling to upgrade an obvious weakness, but are willing to DOWNGRADE it.

You, and most of BigFooty, are definitely overrating him. The fact that the club was only willing to offer him a relatively paltry contract, and sold him for a hill of beans, should give you a good guide to how good he actually is (or isn't).

I think we'll see Douglas moved back into the midfield, freeing up a position on the HFF. Douglas is an upgrade on Lyons in the midfield, and provides an opportunity for a young/developing player to play on the HFF. That young player will almost certainly have a higher ceiling than Lyons (e.g. Milera). The end result is that the team is stronger, because a middle of the road player who had hit is ceiling is moved on and replaced with a younger player with a higher ceiling.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Lyons stats look nice, but having him in our side whilst Hampton, Knight, Menzel and Seedsman struggled to get match fit is a big reason we lacked class at times.

Lyons is a good honest footballer. But he has reached his ceiling. For us to improve we need to see less of the of likes him and more of the other guys I mentioned.

It is the same reason we had to move on Kerridge and Wright. Like these two I expect Lyons to have a good 2017. Playing for a bottom four side.

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Lyons is better than Kerridge and Wright. This is without doubt.

Lyons will never be more than a very nice component of an inside midfield brigade. But that's the role he played for us, and he played it very well - better than what he was traded for would suggest.

Hampton, Knight, Menzel and Seedsman will never play the role Lyons plays. They will never be the clearance-winning types (bar possibly Knight, but he's too good as an outside player to me). Hence, we're putting faith into CEY, Thompson and a bunch of unproven guys in the short term. Those unproven guys may well become proven, but by then our forward line won't be the best in the comp anymore due to natural regression.

 

[headache1]

If Douglas is an upgrade on Lyons in the midfield, then why was Douglas moved out of the midfield through the season? Douglas at his best is an upgrade on Lyons, but it's been some time since he produced that.

 

[Danger in Texas]

You, and most of BigFooty, are definitely overrating him. The fact that the club was only willing to offer him a relatively paltry contract, and sold him for a hill of beans, should give you a good guide to how good he actually is (or isn't).

I think we'll see Douglas moved back into the midfield, freeing up a position on the HFF. Douglas is an upgrade on Lyons in the midfield, and provides an opportunity for a young/developing player to play on the HFF. That young player will almost certainly have a higher ceiling than Lyons (e.g. Milera). The end result is that the team is stronger, because a middle of the road player who had hit is ceiling is moved on and replaced with a younger player with a higher ceiling.

If he's so overrated, I'd like to hear some possible reasons why he isn't rated, honestly. Kicking would be one, but like I said, average kicking isn't unusual for an inside mid.

If Douglas can get back to 2015 form, that's an upgrade - but will he do that, at age 30?

 

[Vader]

If Douglas is an upgrade on Lyons in the midfield, then why was Douglas moved out of the midfield through the season? Douglas at his best is an upgrade on Lyons, but it's been some time since he produced that.

Fair question. Maybe they wanted to give Lyons the opportunity to prove himself and impress the coaches/selectors, something which he failed to do.

 

[Vader]

If he's so overrated, I'd like to hear some possible reasons why he isn't rated, honestly. Kicking would be one, but like I said, average kicking isn't unusual for an inside mid.

If Douglas can get back to 2015 form, that's an upgrade - but will he do that, at age 30?

He's just vanilla. No particular strengths, no upside, no reason why he can't be replaced by a younger player with greater upside. The aim is to improve the team, and if that means moving on players who are decidedly average (in order to create vacancies for younger & better players) then so be it.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Where did you rate Lyons in the scheme of things? What position in the midfield do you think he had sewn up in 2017? After Sloane, Matt Crouch, Brad Crouch - the 4th midfielder? I really liked what Lyons brought in 2016, but I don't see it as a major issue to that he was replaced directly through trade. If I look at our list I see plenty of guys that can take his spot ... and maybe improve the mix in the middle. Maybe I'm under-estimating what JL delivered, or over-estimating what the likes of Greenwood / CEY / Hampton will bring? It did seem to me that the club was not very concerned with keeping Lyons, we have to assume that it was done consciously - surely?

Yeah, the 4th midfielder. As stated, 2015 Douglas would be an upgrade on Lyons, but that's assuming he can get back to his form of the past in his 30's. Greenwood and CEY I don't see having as big an impact as Lyons in 2017 (I expect Hugh to go bang in 2018 - barring a MASSIVE 16/17 preseason). Hampton is very much an outside player - same with Seedsman. Then there's Thompson

 

[Bicks]

All, bar Wigg, play a different role to Lyons. They're outside (or outside-leaning) players, not inside-leaning types.

Have a couple of doubts on Wigg at this stage, but I'm not going to count him out by any means. His boot is glorious. Still, 2017 Wigg won't be an improvement on 2016 Lyons.

We DO NOT have a lack of 'inside leaning' talent, Pyke has clearly observed we needed to change the midfield mix to get to the next level and quite obviously he didn't see Lyons fitting into those plans. From the sound of it Pyke is only "lukewarm" on Barlow too, though he does perhaps offer what Lyons lacks, size and endurance??

 

[Danger in Texas]

He's just vanilla. No particular strengths, no upside, no reason why he can't be replaced by a younger player with greater upside. The aim is to improve the team, and if that means moving on players who are decidedly average (in order to create vacancies for younger & better players) then so be it.

Again, the player might have greater upside, but in 2017 (and possibly 2018) their output will be less than 2016 Lyons. By the time our young mids have developed, our forward line will be regressing.

 

[Vader]

Again, the player might have greater upside, but in 2017 (and possibly 2018) their output will be less than 2016 Lyons. By the time our young mids have developed, our forward line will be regressing.

Not necessarily. I think Knight 2017 could well provide everything (and more) that Lyons did in 2016.

 

[Geoffa32]

Lyons is better than Kerridge and Wright. This is without doubt.

Lyons will never be more than a very nice component of an inside midfield brigade. But that's the role he played for us, and he played it very well - better than what he was traded for would suggest.

Hampton, Knight, Menzel and Seedsman will never play the role Lyons plays. They will never be the clearance-winning types (bar possibly Knight, but he's too good as an outside player to me). Hence, we're putting faith into CEY, Thompson and a bunch of unproven guys in the short term. Those unproven guys may well become proven, but by then our forward line won't be the best in the comp anymore due to natural regression.

I would prefer CEY over Lyons purely on body strength.

Hampton is probably also a wild card. His inside work late season at SANFL level was pretty good. If he can improve on that next year he could become an AFL regular.


One thing we sorely need is a 190cm mid. We have seen with Sydney, Freo and Footscray having such a player ie Fyfe, Bont and Kennedy is important.

McGovern could still be that player. Fyfe started out more a roaming forward than mid.

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[Danger in Texas]

Not necessarily. I think Knight 2017 could well provide everything (and more) that Lyons did in 2016.

Wait and see. Knight will need to have a massive preseason for that to happen, although I do think he'll be a gem. He's also more an outside player than Lyons, and IMO will be used (next year) as a half-forward/outside mid, rather than a clearance-winning type.

 

[baldandbroke]

Yeah, the 4th midfielder. As stated, 2015 Douglas would be an upgrade on Lyons, but that's assuming he can get back to his form of the past in his 30's. Greenwood and CEY I don't see having as big an impact as Lyons in 2017 (I expect Hugh to go bang in 2018 - barring a MASSIVE 16/17 preseason). Hampton is very much an outside player - same with Seedsman. Then there's Thompson

I actually cringe at the thought of Douglas replacing Lyons in the middle, almost as much as the idea of Thommo being integral to our 2017. We have to believe that the midfield mix needs changing, the possibility that one of our existing players is moved into the midfield makes more sense to me than anything else I am reading at the moment. Charlie Cameron will spend more time in there, maybe there is another player like Atkins or Smith that get a shot at a few centre bounces too? Not sure, but I don't think that not having Lyons or a direct Lyons replacement will hold us back.

 

[Elite Crow]

Lyons stats look nice, but having him in our side whilst Hampton, Knight, Menzel and Seedsman struggled to get match fit is a big reason we lacked class at times.

Lyons is a good honest footballer. But he has reached his ceiling. For us to improve we need to see less of the of likes him and more of the other guys I mentioned.

It is the same reason we had to move on Kerridge and Wright. Like these two I expect Lyons to have a good 2017. Playing for a bottom four side.

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Lyons is a poor man's VB.

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What a load of crap.

If anything Lyons was one of our midfielders who actually showed class, one of our few mids who could actually hit a target up forward and finished with 18 goals.

Those players are classy but should be replacing Thompson, Mackay and Douglas who as senior players let us down. Thommo is understandable given his age but the others should be embarrassed.

Douglas just when we needed him to stand up couldn't, tell me why was Lyons preferred in the midfield?

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Fair question. Maybe they wanted to give Lyons the opportunity to prove himself and impress the coaches/selectors, something which he failed to do.

Lyons failed to impress the coaches in the specific role they gave him... so they continued to play him in that same role for majority of the season anyway?
That doesn't make much sense.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I actually cringe at the thought of Douglas replacing Lyons in the middle, almost as much as the idea of Thommo being integral to our 2017. We have to believe that the midfield mix needs changing, the possibility that one of our existing players is moved into the midfield makes more sense to me than anything else I am reading at the moment. Charlie Cameron will spend more time in there, maybe there is another player like Atkins or Smith that get a shot at a few centre bounces too? Not sure, but I don't think that not having Lyons or a direct Lyons replacement will hold us back.

2015 Douglas mainly played in the middle, as a balanced inside/outside mid. And he wasn't too bad, either! 70% DE with 4 more kicks than handballs, more I50's and the same amount of clearances per game. If Dougie can get back to 2015 form, I don't see why not. Thing is, I don't know if he can do that at age 30.

We can't go into 2017 thinking that things can work with only three inside midfielders in the best 22. We may well try CC and Atkins in the middle, but at this stage Atkins is too light-bodied to consistently win clearances, and CC, IMO, works best as a pressuring, yet offensively dangerous outside mid who can sometimes burst through a stoppage and come out with the ball at the other end - not a clearance winner. Smith could well be the type who is able to get his hands on the footy at a stoppage and break away with a quick first few steps - but again, his best work is done on the outside. Preferably, we need inside mids with a point of difference (i.e. not just tough coal-face players), such as Greenwood, or Venables/SPP if we draft them, but they're not going to make any consistently outstanding impact in 2017.