Prediction Michael Barlow

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Heafy83 said:
Who says that has to come from outside? Why can't it come from internal improvement? It did in 2016 why can't it again?

Everyone is ignoring that fact. Everyone is so hung up on the 'big fish' theory that they ignore what is happening in front of their eyes.
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Basically betting on our internal improvement being better than those around us to leap-frog them, some with much higher top end draft talent (GWS). 2016 we also had a very friendly run with injuries, don't think we can expect that again.

I don't think it has to be a big fish but there should have been some smaller moves done I would have thought like we did last year rather than sitting still and going to the draft to get someone that really won't be ready to add much to the side for the next couple of years.


Heafy83 said:
Really? So the Hawks won their flags on the back of talent picked up early in the draft? Outside of Hodge, Buddy & Roughie it gets real thin. Mitchell, Lewis, Breust, Hill, Smith, Birchall, Shiel, Stratton...... and the list goes on..... are stalwarts of their flag sides yet were not high picks or players we didn't have access to equally.

My point with the dogs was improvement came internally. They didn't go grab that big fish or seek anything more than role players. I agree their flag was a bit of an anomaly but the development of their youth is something to be applauded.
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Think Hawthorn's 2008 side had 5 more top 10 draft picks than we currently. Probably not the greatest of points though, they have traded plenty to get to the top/stay there.

Just feel most teams that win premierships are built from getting some top end picks via the draft or at least trade to improve their side. We haven't had access to that top end of the draft so I'm not sure we can really expect us to recruit/develop our young talent so much better than the opposition clubs to make up for that.
 
dylan123 said:
Basically betting on our internal improvement being better than those around us to leap-frog them, some with much higher top end draft talent (GWS). 2016 we also had a very friendly run with injuries, don't think we can expect that again.

I don't think it has to be a big fish but there should have been some smaller moves done I would have thought like we did last year rather than sitting still and going to the draft to get someone that really won't be ready to add much to the side for the next couple of years.
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I can see that point, but Ill counter that the best TEAM wins the flag not always the team with the best talent and plus so many other elements factor into a flag.

dylan123 said:
Think Hawthorn's 2008 side had 5 more top 10 draft picks than we currently. Probably not the greatest of points though, they have traded plenty to get to the top/stay there.

Just feel most teams that win premierships are built from getting some top end picks via the draft or at least trade to improve their side. We haven't had access to that top end of the draft so I'm not sure we can really expect us to recruit/develop our young talent so much better than the opposition clubs to make up for that.
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They might have but also the Hawks flag in 08 was a bit like the dogs flag this year. One out of the ordinary. Their team demographic was far removed from the usual flag winning one.
 

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Heafy83 said:
I can see that point, but Ill counter that the best TEAM wins the flag not always the team with the best talent and plus so many other elements factor into a flag.

They might have but also the Hawks flag in 08 was a bit like the dogs flag this year. One out of the ordinary. Their team demographic was far removed from the usual flag winning one.
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There hasn't been a flag winner this decade that didnt benefit from a draft anomaly or bottoming out. Not one.
 
feenix67 said:
There hasn't been a flag winner this decade that didnt benefit from a draft anomaly or bottoming out. Not one.
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What do you mean by draft anomaly?

So you're suggesting we have to bottom out?

Also those stats will become less and less relevant the more Free Agency becomes more utilised.
 
Heafy83 said:
Oh no the world is ending we weren't able to land a player who was DELISTED by another club. Let that sink in...... DELISTED!

Have no idea why people are so against backing our own players in. 2016 was supposed to be a tough year, with a tough draw, and us losing possibly the best player in the comp. Not many expected us to make the 8. However we improved on 2015 and our kids continued to progress. Why can't 2017 be the same? Why can't those young players take the next step? Its how the Hawks have won their flags. Backed their own list in and brought in role players to fill specific roles. Dogs just backed their own youth in and won a flag. But no on this board its all doom and gloom and the club has nfi. Yet since Sando sacking (which I see as the start of the turnaround for AFC) the club has done nothing but prove the doubters on here wrong.
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Finally, someone on this board thinks the same way I do.
 
feenix67 said:
F/S, bottoming out, COLA.
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Ok fair enough. However these things are evening out a little more with the introduction of the points system, removal of Cola and no guaranteed priority picks.
 
Heafy83 said:
Ok fair enough. However these things are evening out a little more with the introduction of the points system, removal of Cola and no guaranteed priority picks.
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Could probably make a case, actually, that every flag winner this century has benefited, except Collingwood in 2010.

If you replace COLA with "Northern Academies", I think we're a fair way off having an equitable system. I guess in the context of your earlier comments, Im saying whilst it may be the best team that wins, there are huge inequities in the system in terms of compiling the best team.
 
feenix67 said:
Could probably make a case, actually, that every flag winner this century has benefited, except Collingwood in 2010.

If you replace COLA with "Northern Academies", I think we're a fair way off having an equitable system. I guess in the context of your earlier comments, Im saying whilst it may be the best team that wins, there are huge inequities in the system in terms of compiling the best team.
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So the solution is either bottoming out or utilizing Free Agency.
 
Vader said:
The problem is that we need significant improvement from our midfield in 2017 if we are to win the premiership. We've lost 2 of our regular inside midfielders (Thommo & Lyons), with no apparent replacement.

The nature of Organic Growth is that it is relatively slow and incremental. We don't have time for our midfield to improve incrementally, if we are to win a flag while our current forwards are at their peak. By the time our midfield peaks (relying solely on organic growth), our forward line will already be in decline.
The only way to get our midfield & forward lines to peak at the same time is via trading & free agency. The club has so far failed to achieve that.
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This where I disagree with you. We have taken steps but two things derailed us. We had a cruel couple of injury problems in the pre season with both Knight and Hampton going down with long injuries. Brad Crouch took most of the season to get back into some sort of playing shape.

When we needed to be injury free, they struck, JJ and Sauce, 2 of our most important players were hurt, severely restricting them. Tex was hobbling again along with Laird. Seedsman getting hurt as he was starting to settle into the side again. That stupid ban on Sloane for the crucial match rd.23 really hurt us. There is every reason to expect us to be in the firing line again this year. no need to chase a "big fish" mid at all.

Pray, tell me which one we were going to pay overs for? Gibbs had his chance to come to us and blew it. The rest were never coming to us.
 
Heafy83 said:
I would argue everything you have said there is wrong. The gap is not that large and by everyone's reckoning on here Thommo gave us bumpkin this year anyway. Midfielders develop very quickly and most of the mids on our list have been in the system for 2-4 years already. Its the exact reason you were happy to move Lyons on. He hit his peak already.
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Thommo didn't give us bupkus. He wasn't our primary midfielder any more, and he was definitely in decline, but it's typical BigFooty hyperbole to suggest that he gave us nothing.

You're correct in saying that midfielders develop quickly (compared to rucks & KPPs). The flipside of this is that if they haven't shown anything by year 3-4, then they probably never will. On that basis Doedee, Milera, Knight, Wigg and (maybe) Gore are the only mids to get excited about. CEY and Hampton have been in the system for 5 years, Seedsman & Menzel for 4 years.

We're short of 2-3 A-grad mids. How many of our SANFL mids have the potential to reach those heights? Maybe Milera, Doedee and Knight. Maybe. But not in 2017.
Heafy83 said:
We have the top end talent to win a flag. Its the bottom end that needs the work. These players do not need to be of the elite standard but just do their role well and be reliable. Its the players 16th-30th on your list that will win you the flag as these are the players that get exposed the most when the pressure is on.
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Do we really have the top end talent to win a flag? Few teams have more elite players than Adelaide, but the problem is that almost none of them are in Adelaide's engine room. Our forward line is currently #1 in the competition. Walker, JJ, Lynch, Betts & Cameron are as dangerous as any forward line in the competition, and easily the best forward line Adelaide has ever assembled. Our defence is taking shape nicely too - Talia, Smith & Laird are top notch, with Hartigan improving rapidly. The problem is the midfield. Rory Sloane is one of the best players in the competition, Brad Crouch has potential and should improve greatly with a full season (and pre-season) behind him for the first time. If we're talking elite talent, then that's it - Thompson is in terminal decline, Matt Crouch doesn't have the talent to reach the top level, Lyons is gone, who else is there?

There's no use having premiership standard forward & back lines, if your midfield isn't up to the same standard. Our midfield isn't even close to being premiership standard.

I think we have reasonable depth, from 16-30. It's a lack of top end talent in the midfield which is holding us back.
 
Heafy83 said:
Ok fair enough. However these things are evening out a little more with the introduction of the points system, removal of Cola and no guaranteed priority picks.
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The priority pick system, father-son, and all academies should be removed to ensure a fair draft pool
 

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Ozzie said:
This where I disagree with you. We have taken steps but two things derailed us. We had a cruel couple of injury problems in the pre season with both Knight and Hampton going down with long injuries. Brad Crouch took most of the season to get back into some sort of playing shape.

When we needed to be injury free, they struck, JJ and Sauce, 2 of our most important players were hurt, severely restricting them. Tex was hobbling again along with Laird. Seedsman getting hurt as he was starting to settle into the side again. That stupid ban on Sloane for the crucial match rd.23 really hurt us. There is every reason to expect us to be in the firing line again this year. no need to chase a "big fish" mid at all.
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The reality is that we had a very good run with injuries this year. Yes, JJ and Sauce had problems at the wrong end of the year. Yes, Knight and Hampton had long term injuries which destroyed their seasons. Yes, Brad Crouch was working his way back after (effectively) missing 2 years due to injury. That doesn't alter the facts - Adelaide's injury toll was lower than almost any other club, and much lower than our historical averages. If anything, we should expect our 2017 season to be more impacted by injuries, not less.
Ozzie said:
Pray, tell me which one we were going to pay overs for? Gibbs had his chance to come to us and blew it. The rest were never coming to us.
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We just don't know that. We don't know which players the club did & didn't approach. They're a closed shop. Sometimes that's a good thing - but when the fans are looking for reassurance that they were actually trying to improve the list, and getting nothing back, then it's not exactly helpful.

Adelaide were linked with Rockliff and Martin. Rockliff was definitely available if we wanted him. Martin was probably nothing more than BigFooty dreaming. It doesn't appear that Adelaide showed any interest whatsoever in either player.
 
Vader said:
The reality is that we had a very good run with injuries this year. Yes, JJ and Sauce had problems at the wrong end of the year. Yes, Knight and Hampton had long term injuries which destroyed their seasons. Yes, Brad Crouch was working his way back after (effectively) missing 2 years due to injury. That doesn't alter the facts - Adelaide's injury toll was lower than almost any other club, and much lower than our historical averages. If anything, we should expect our 2017 season to be more impacted by injuries, not less.

We just don't know that. We don't know which players the club did & didn't approach. They're a closed shop. Sometimes that's a good thing - but when the fans are looking for reassurance that they were actually trying to improve the list, and getting nothing back, then it's not exactly helpful.

Adelaide were linked with Rockliff and Martin. Rockliff was definitely available if we wanted him. Martin was probably nothing more than BigFooty dreaming. It doesn't appear that Adelaide showed any interest whatsoever in either player.
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Again you have cherry picked to suit your points. fair enough we all do that. To gloss over the fact we got injuries at the wrong time is clearly wrong. Yes, we did have a great run compared to years gone by. It is like free kicks, it doesn't matter how many you get, it is where and when you get them.

So you want to pay overs for a player with a reported 2 strikes for drugs against his name? Martin who always uses another club to jack his price up. That is his usual MO.
 
Vader said:
Thommo didn't give us bupkus. He wasn't our primary midfielder any more, and he was definitely in decline, but it's typical BigFooty hyperbole to suggest that he gave us nothing.

You're correct in saying that midfielders develop quickly (compared to rucks & KPPs). The flipside of this is that if they haven't shown anything by year 3-4, then they probably never will. On that basis Doedee, Milera, Knight, Wigg and (maybe) Gore are the only mids to get excited about. CEY and Hampton have been in the system for 5 years, Seedsman & Menzel for 4 years.

We're short of 2-3 A-grad mids. How many of our SANFL mids have the potential to reach those heights? Maybe Milera, Doedee and Knight. Maybe. But not in 2017.
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Hang on you are missing a big chunk of players there. You are only counting those outside of current best 22. The players in our best 22 are most likely to develop into those A grade players. Whos to say Crouch x 2, Cameron, Atkins, Smith can't become A grade players? Why does it have to come from outside the current best 22. They were best 22 for a reason to start with. I agree with CEY. We both have the same views there. Hampton has be derailed by long term injuries so would put an asterix next to his name.

Outside our best 22 I'd say Milera and Knight have the best chance of being A grade. However like I said earlier its that 16-30 spot we need desperate filling. Players who can be relied upon and put in consistent performances. Don't have to be A grade or even high Bs. Player who will get the job done ;)

Also how often do you look at a list and say a player who has little to no AFL exposure will become an A grader? Not very often. Usually its those who are already playing best 22 that carry that tag.

Vader said:
Do we really have the top end talent to win a flag? Few teams have more elite players than Adelaide, but the problem is that almost none of them are in Adelaide's engine room. Our forward line is currently #1 in the competition. Walker, JJ, Lynch, Betts & Cameron are as dangerous as any forward line in the competition, and easily the best forward line Adelaide has ever assembled. Our defence is taking shape nicely too - Talia, Smith & Laird are top notch, with Hartigan improving rapidly. The problem is the midfield. Rory Sloane is one of the best players in the competition, Brad Crouch has potential and should improve greatly with a full season (and pre-season) behind him for the first time. If we're talking elite talent, then that's it - Thompson is in terminal decline, Matt Crouch doesn't have the talent to reach the top level, Lyons is gone, who else is there?

There's no use having premiership standard forward & back lines, if your midfield isn't up to the same standard. Our midfield isn't even close to being premiership standard.

I think we have reasonable depth, from 16-30. It's a lack of top end talent in the midfield which is holding us back.
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This is all just a matter of opinion, which is what I believe separates us. Stats suggest we are not far off a flag side. Organic growth in these players you speak of will fill that A grader void imo. This is what the club believes also I feel. Hence why we were all about getting Gibbs or nothing. The fact we wouldn't overpay for him is also evident of this.
 
Scorpus said:
The priority pick system, father-son, and all academies should be removed to ensure a fair draft pool
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Why? A Lot of professional leagues around the world have Youth squads which would probably be the most equivalent. The premier league have their youth squad, the NBA had D-League aligned teams.

Its also not just about equality. Its about attracting/securing talent that may venture to other sports that reside in a very small talent pool.
 
Adelaide trade reasonably well, Im not sure where the critiscm is coming from, on last years top 22

Betts AA
Jacobs AA
Thommo AA
Lynch pretty handy
Jenkins Pretty Handy
Crouch Pretty Handy

Next year could see another 4 enter the top 22 that were trade results

Menzel
Seedsman
Hampton
Milera

Lever was an change in picks so wont count him as a trade

Thats a fair whack of trades with some big names that have gained AA
 
Ozzie said:
Again you have cherry picked to suit your points. fair enough we all do that. To gloss over the fact we got injuries at the wrong time is clearly wrong. Yes, we did have a great run compared to years gone by. It is like free kicks, it doesn't matter how many you get, it is where and when you get them.

So you want to pay overs for a player with a reported 2 strikes for drugs against his name? Martin who always uses another club to jack his price up. That is his usual MO.
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I'm not glossing over the fact that we got injuries at the wrong time. But injuries happen to every club, and can happen at any time, from the pre-season to the grand final. The team which Adelaide fielded in the finals was the best team we had all year. As far as we know, Sauce, JJ and Brown were pretty much the only injured players, and their injuries weren't enough to prevent them from playing. That is an exceptionally good result. To expect anything better next year is completely unrealistic.

I don't think Martin was ever a viable prospect. I think it was 100% BigFooty fantasy. Rockliff, on the other hand, was definitely available. We don't know what other players may (or may not) have been available, or of interest to Adelaide, because Adelaide has such an effective "cone of silence".
 
Drugs Are Bad Mackay? said:
And so was Rioli
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Here's a full list of the Hawks' first round pick premiership players
  • Hodge
  • Lewis
  • Franklin (gone)
  • Birchall
  • Roughead (PP)
  • Rioli
  • Smith
  • Schoenmakers
  • Ellis
  • Bailey
  • Ladson
  • Croad
  • Frawley (FA but first round pick)
  • McEvoy (high pick and traded for 1st rounder)
  • Burgoyne (traded in for high picks and also drafted as a high pick)
  • Hale (high pick and traded for 1st rounder)
They now also have Mitchell, O'Meara, O'Rourke, Lovell and Burton as first round picks who are not premiership players
 
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Scorpus said:
Here's a full list of the Hawks' first round pick premiership players
  • Hodge
  • Lewis
  • Franklin (gone)
  • Birchall
  • Roughead (PP)
  • Rioli
  • Smith
  • Schoenmakers
  • Ellis
  • Bailey
  • Ladson
  • Croad
  • Frawley (FA but first round pick)
  • McEvoy (high pick and traded for 1st rounder)
  • Burgoyne (traded in for high picks and also drafted as a high pick)
  • Hale (high pick and traded for 1st rounder)
They now also have Mitchell, O'Meara, O'Rourke, Lovell and Burton as first round picks who are not premiership players
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If you're going to list Franklin as "gone", then there are quite a few others who should also have the same marking.
 
Vader said:
If you're going to list Franklin as "gone", then there are quite a few others who should also have the same marking.
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Well yes, Franklin did win the 2008/13 premierships and left. Ellis left as a FA after the 08 flag. The rest retired or played in every premiership after they were drafted by or traded to Hawthorn.

Hawthorn's 2015 flag had: Hodge, Lewis, Birchall, Roughead, Rioli, Smith, Schoenmakers, Frawley, McEvoy, Hale, and Burgoyne
 
Cheer up everybody! Look at the bright side. We did not lose a Dangerfield this year. So, unless you believe Lyons was an equivalent, there's no reason why we cannot reproduce last year. But if you're a pessimist, you'll probably look at the last 3 games of last season only.
 
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