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Prediction Michael Barlow

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Danger in Texas said:
Difference between Lyons and Wright is that we delisted Wright after a less than desirable year. We traded Lyons for a 3rd after a career-best year.

Lyons is a very good 'component'-type mid. Other than Douglas (IF he can get back to previous form, which I'm not confident about), we don't have anyone else that can play that role effectively next year. CEY won't produce as much as Lyons did, IMO. Thommo is cooked. All our other inside mids are still developing. Really hurts our chances for next year if we only have three players who's best position is as an inside mid in our best 22.
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Not much difference in output.
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...2=24&type=A&pid1=3409&pid2=3504&fid1=S&fid2=S
 

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Danger in Texas said:
Probably best to compare them to their final years at the Crows, if we're consistent with my point...

http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...&pid1=3409&pid2=3504&fid1=P&fopt1=2015&fid2=S
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Why? Because you think it validates your argument? Lyons had one good consistent year in 6 years on the list. Why is Lyons' best year any more relevant that Wright's best year?

Wright was being talked up like the next midfield gun by this board after the 2012 season. Not dissimilar to Lyons.
 
Thetrader15 said:
Didn't we see Gibbs having coffee with Tex - how did that end up!
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Gibbs decided he wanted to join the crows.. but it was Carlton not Gibbs that said no... whereas the choice is all Barlow's.
 
Stiffy_18 said:
Why? Because you think it validates your argument? Lyons had one good consistent year in 6 years on the list. Why is Lyons' best year any more relevant that Wright's best year?

Wright was being talked up like the next midfield gun by this board after the 2012 season. Not dissimilar to Lyons.
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Because if you look at my quote, I'm talking about it in regards to what they were sold for. Wright was delisted after a poor year, after being on a downward slope since his 2012 season - this is expected. If you get worse year after year, the expectation is you'll keep going that way (turns out it wasn't the case). His value was low at the time.

On the other hand, Lyons has had a career best year. At this stage, there's no reason he can't back that up next year. And we go and trade him for pick 43 and a four pick upgrade in the fourth round. That is the definition of selling low.
 
Stiffy_18 said:
Wright was being talked up like the next midfield gun by this board after the 2012 season. Not dissimilar to Lyons.
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Haven't really been paying much/any attention to this recent Lyons argument but just on the above, I think we (posters) kind of learned that it's not always bad to move a player on after a strong season, Hendo being another great example. My disappointment with moving Lyons comes with what we got in return. Pick 41 or w/e it was was a pretty average return, bloody Witts went for 42! Had it been ~30 or the 26 I think they were holding I'd have been pretty happy with the move but for the return we got, can't help but wonder if he'd have been better holding onto as he'd either be best 22 or 25 so likely to play the majority of the games anyways.


Wonder how he'd feel if Barlow ends up going to GC as he'd be in direct competition with him for a position in that midfield!
 
The Sloane Ranger said:
IMO the WAtoday article is purely speculating on the basis that Barlow was sighted on the GC, for all we know MB could be doing his due diligence on both clubs before reaching a decision
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Bicks said:
I'd wager most of the top 20 in this draft other than maybe the talls if they go that early will definitely make it as AFL players in this particular draft...this draft IMO will be remembered as one of the best in the last decade.
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What was your opinion of O'Rourke? Plenty of high pick busts still.
 
Danger in Texas said:
Because if you look at my quote, I'm talking about it in regards to what they were sold for. Wright was delisted after a poor year, after being on a downward slope since his 2012 season - this is expected. If you get worse year after year, the expectation is you'll keep going that way (turns out it wasn't the case). His value was low at the time.

On the other hand, Lyons has had a career best year. At this stage, there's no reason he can't back that up next year. And we go and trade him for pick 43 and a four pick upgrade in the fourth round. That is the definition of selling low.
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Comparing for what "they were sold" is pointless. They are footballers and should be judged on their talent level, potential and production. They are not shares to compare them what they are sold for. Lyons is a 3rd round pick talent. What we got for him is a little under (by about 7-8 spots in terms of pick) but we also upgraded a later pick which is about a wash.

Bottom line is, in 2012, Wight had as good a season as Lyons if not better in a team that lost the prelim by less than a kick. People get carried away with average players that pop up and have a surprising year. Lyons' stats when projected to same TOG % as this year are very comparable for the last 3 years. I am not sure he improved as much as he got a consistent opportunity.

Again, Lyons is not a huge loss. There are players on the list who can play the same role as well is not better than Lyons but that are more talented and provide a different mix.
 
Stiffy_18 said:
Again, Lyons is not a huge loss. There are players on the list who can play the same role as well is not better than Lyons but that are more talented and provide a different mix.
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This is the bottom line .......if you think of potential replacements, any of these are an improvement .....Milera, Knight, Menzel, Greenwood, or Hampton .......and then there's the make or break season ahead for Wigg
 
Danger in Texas said:
Putting my money on GC at this stage
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If he wants best 22 security, at least for another 2 years, then Gold Coast is his best option, if he's up for a fight in terms of best 22 spot, but wants a chance at a premiership, Adelaides the one.

Personally I think Barlow would be really good for Gold Coast. They really need some stability in their line up, especially through the midfield. A few guys who will perform to a good level week in week out and come from professional systems to set an example, Lyons was a good start, Barlow would also be a great pick up. Takes the pressure off Ablett and affords some of their younger players some protection whilst they develop.
 

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Gets! said:
If he wants a flag and to play in front of a huge crowd at an amazing stadium he will pick us.

If he is more driven by money and security he will pick GC.

It's all good either way.
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Spot on

His decision will purely come down to what is motivating him at this point in his career

Opportunity for success vs. Selection security
 
Danger in Texas said:
CEY won't produce as much as Lyons did, IMO.
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I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say that IF CEY gets the opportunities that Lyons did this year he will surpass him in 2017. CEY will never be a superstar but I believe he can be a very solid afl midfielder as many have said about Lyons. The difference is CEY has some genuine size/grunt about him and has better pace than JL. If they're gonna back in spuds like MacKay week in week out, surely they can give CEY a decent run at it to see if he'll be any good. Considering our disappointing trade period with no Gibbs and even no Barlow as it seems; absolutely no improvement to our weakest area on the field, it would be criminal negligence not to give him a decent shot next year. Whilst we all hope that the likes of Knight, Menzel, Milera, Hampton will give us more next year none of them have the physical attributes that CEY has. I hope he gets his chance.
 
The Sloane Ranger said:
Spot on

His decision will purely come down to what is motivating him at this point in his career

Opportunity for success vs. Selection security
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A lot of players at his stage look for financial reward before they lose the opportunity. He will earn more at GC so I think he will nominate them.
 
adelaidecrows said:
A lot of players at his stage look for financial reward before they lose the opportunity. He will earn more at GC so I think he will nominate them.
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As we are know seeing with Thommo and Mitchell there could be more on offer with a development into coaching at the end of his career, giving him greater financial security. Pretty sure Mitchell wouldn't be playing for West Coast if that wasn't offered
 

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