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Prediction Michael Barlow

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Vader said:
Come on.. he was never more than mediocre and barely AFL standard. Mackay & Douglas weren't traded because they're contracted and are "required players". Grigg was delisted, and CEY is odds-on to share the same fate in 12 months time - the only thing which saved him this year was the contract he holds for 2017. That leaves Thompson, who is 34 years old.

To suggest that pick #43 + #67 represents "currency" is really reaching.

He was traded because he was out of contract and wasn't a required player. The fact that we got something back is almost a bonus, it's not the reason why he was traded in the first place.

Will he get games at GC? Probably, given the way their midfield has been decimated in recent seasons. Will he flourish? Depends on your definition of "flourish". I think he reached his ceiling in 2014, and his ceiling is/was mediocrity.

For the record, I said that Grigg wouldn't find another team (maybe as a DFA) - and I was proven correct. I didn't make that claim about Lyons.
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Totally agree with everything you have said regarding Lyons Vader.

Except I'll add this. The club was happy to keep him, but it was on a minimal contract. That is where they saw his value. He was handy depth going forward and thats it.

The club recognises by giving a larger contract to a middle of the road (at best) player that it will impact on what they can possibly offer players such as Wigg, Milera, M Crouch, Atkins, Knight etc in the future. Not to mention our pick 13 who would have been likely to surpass Lyons in a couple of seasons, if not straight out the gate given, how strong this draft is.

I also think what we got for him was evident of his value as well. Out of contract player and the best offered was pick 43 and some beans for a Melbourne boy who went to the Gold Coast. So he either got no offers from Vic clubs or they were worse than what GC were offering to both him and the AFC.

I don't even see him playing many games at the GC. He will be more a stop gap until some of their youngers players develop. They still have a raft of midfield talent. Players such as Miller, Hall, Ablett, Swallow, Martin etc are all well ahead of him. Not to mention the 4 picks they have inside the top 10 to come this year.

Kudos to the AFC for getting this one spot on right!
 
Vader said:
Come on.. he was never more than mediocre and barely AFL standard. Mackay & Douglas weren't traded because they're contracted and are "required players". Grigg was delisted, and CEY is odds-on to share the same fate in 12 months time - the only thing which saved him this year was the contract he holds for 2017. That leaves Thompson, who is 34 years old.

To suggest that pick #43 + #67 represents "currency" is really reaching.

He was traded because he was out of contract and wasn't a required player. The fact that we got something back is almost a bonus, it's not the reason why he was traded in the first place.

Will he get games at GC? Probably, given the way their midfield has been decimated in recent seasons. Will he flourish? Depends on your definition of "flourish". I think he reached his ceiling in 2014, and his ceiling is/was mediocrity.

For the record, I said that Grigg wouldn't find another team (maybe as a DFA) - and I was proven correct. I didn't make that claim about Lyons.
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I do agree with most about Lyons, As I don't think he would have played too many games if the Crows had a fit squad in Knight and Menzel, Also I believe he would be lucky to get a game in 2017 for the Crows, the move to GC was good move for Lyons.
But to say 43 and 67 is not Currency is wrong, trade pick value is determined by the current draft.

And to Those that believe 43 and the upgrade is a bad pick for Lyons are wrong, In this year Draft Lyons was worth would be a late pick 30 or early 40's,
Trade value is base of the strength of the current draft not previous drafts, ie Last year draft Lyons worth would have been late 20's,
Also factor in that the Crows needed a pick around the late 30's to early 40's to cover most bases for Jarman. And the deal they got for Lyons is about on parr for player of his type,
 
Vader said:
The only bit of this I'd argue with is your statement that he's "mid tier and had market value". Even that, I think, is overstating where Lyons is/was at. Lyons is a mediocre player, who was one of the last players selected each week, and who had reached his ceiling with no remaining upside. As I see it, that's below "mid tier" - though you might be using a different definition of "mid tier". Market value is whatever the market is willing to pay, but I wouldn't have thought that #43 + chump change (#67) is a good argument for him even being rated as "mid tier".
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Well you dont really have any evidence that JL was one of the last picked - thats your speculation.

More importantly, do you not see how his market value was diminished by us lowballing him out, and GC having the PSD as leverage? Market value, in the context of AFL trades, is far more complex than "x player is worth $y". I'll grant you, JL is a dime a dozen, workhorse player whose type is not in high demand, simply because there are a lot of them. That said, these are not fringe players, these are 20 game a year players who pull decent numbers and form part of every club's midfield rotation. A fringe player is a CEY/Mitch Grigg type, who are in and out of the side.

You've agreed that the reason Lyons was trade, rather than a Douglas/Mackay type, because he was "out of contract". Is it your view, then that had either of those two players been out of contract, they would have been given the Lyons treatment? Do you see how this undermines your opinion that having Douggie back in the middle at JL's expense is an improvement?
 
If the end result breaks down to trading out Lyons to get Ben Jarman I can't see how too many people here can complain. On the "Jarman" thread many are talking him up as a worthwhile prospect.

I have my doubts he is that great a prospect. But do think that end result is better for our club as Lyons has reached his (low) ceiling in terms of ability in a good team. Would rather the potential of Jarman than a known list clogged non what Lyons will end up being for us.

Let's not forget that DMac played quite a few good games before getting his much maligned four year deal..

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feenix67 said:
Well you dont really have any evidence that JL was one of the last picked - thats your speculation.

More importantly, do you not see how his market value was diminished by us lowballing him out, and GC having the PSD as leverage? Market value, in the context of AFL trades, is far more complex than "x player is worth $y". I'll grant you, JL is a dime a dozen, workhorse player whose type is not in high demand, simply because there are a lot of them. That said, these are not fringe players, these are 20 game a year players who pull decent numbers and form part of every club's midfield rotation. A fringe player is a CEY/Mitch Grigg type, who are in and out of the side.

You've agreed that the reason Lyons was trade, rather than a Douglas/Mackay type, because he was "out of contract". Is it your view, then that had either of those two players been out of contract, they would have been given the Lyons treatment? Do you see how this undermines your opinion that having Douggie back in the middle at JL's expense is an improvement?
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Douglas & Mackay were never going to be traded, even if they were out of contract. That said, I doubt that Mackay would have been offered a multi-year contract. Both will be one-club players.

I'm not totally sold on the "Douglas to the midfield" option. It just seems to be the best option to me, given the players we now have on our list. I don't think CEY is an AFL standard player. Lyons is gone. Thommo's role is significantly reduced. That leaves 2x vacancies in our "inside" midfield, with Douglas as the only obvious candidate. Show me another alternative, and I will happily consider it.
 
Wood_Duck said:
I think we all need to accept that there are 2 ends of the scale with regard to support for Lyons. I dont think it matters how many times we go over it, people are not going to change their opinions. Clearly many people have been watching a different Jarryd Lyons to the one I've been watching. I have no problem with people having a different perspective but the rest of us are not going to buy the rewritten history that keeps popping up.
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I simply ask where was this support for Lyons as little as 12 months ago? Was there not a thread dedicated to Lyons along the lines of should midfielders take this long?

If anyone is rewriting history its those that have their knickers in a knot that Lyons was forced out for the picks exchange we got.
 
Vader said:
Douglas & Mackay were never going to be traded, even if they were out of contract. That said, I doubt that Mackay would have been offered a multi-year contract. Both will be one-club players.

I'm not totally sold on the "Douglas to the midfield" option. It just seems to be the best option to me, given the players we now have on our list. I don't think CEY is an AFL standard player. Lyons is gone. Thommo's role is significantly reduced. That leaves 2x vacancies in our "inside" midfield, with Douglas as the only obvious candidate. Show me another alternative, and I will happily consider it.
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IMO it'll now be (barring any mature-age pickups in the draft) Douglas and CEY starting the season in those vacancies. By the end of the season, Greenwood will replace CEY by season's end. Gore may surprise, too, if he puts some bulk on over the pre-season. Smith also a chance to move to an inside role, if Thinker's info is correct.

Still think that Lyons would have been a better option than any of those other players *for 2017* (barring maybe Dougie IF he can get back to past form, and probably Smith too IF it happens).
 
Stiffy_18 said:
I simply ask where was this support for Lyons as little as 12 months ago? Was there not a thread dedicated to Lyons along the lines of should midfielders take this long?

If anyone is rewriting history its those that have their knickers in a knot that Lyons was forced out for the picks exchange we got.
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Not just 12 months aga, people need to go back and read the weekly team selection changes threads and see how many posters were calling for Lyons to be dropped on an almost weekly basis
 

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Stiffy_18 said:
Comparing for what "they were sold" is pointless. They are footballers and should be judged on their talent level, potential and production. They are not shares to compare them what they are sold for. Lyons is a 3rd round pick talent. What we got for him is a little under (by about 7-8 spots in terms of pick) but we also upgraded a later pick which is about a wash.

Bottom line is, in 2012, Wight had as good a season as Lyons if not better in a team that lost the prelim by less than a kick. People get carried away with average players that pop up and have a surprising year. Lyons' stats when projected to same TOG % as this year are very comparable for the last 3 years. I am not sure he improved as much as he got a consistent opportunity.

Again, Lyons is not a huge loss. There are players on the list who can play the same role as well is not better than Lyons but that are more talented and provide a different mix.
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If we're judging Lyons on his talent level and production, he's worth more than a 3rd round pick. Heck, Levi Greenwood got pick 25 after his career-best year. Now, Greenwood has declined since then, but who's to say Lyons will, too? Just how can you prove that? In other words, we definitely got unders for Lyons.

Yes, Wright was good in 2012. In his final three years at the Crows, though, he only went downhill. Can't help that, if a player regresses, he regresses, you can't predict that. Lyons has likely reached his ceiling, but you just can't say for certain that he'll follow the same path as Wright.

My point is, yes we have more talented players on our list, but all of them aren't ready to perform consistently 2017 like Lyons could have. Again, we'll only have three (maybe four, but unlikely due to Dougie's age) truly effective inside mids playing in our firsts team next year. All the others suggested either won't be ready to consistently perform, or are best used in another position on the field.
 
Vader said:
Mackay & Douglas weren't traded because they're contracted and are "required players".
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What has Mackay ever done on the field to suggest he's a 'required player'?

Like I'm all for us moving on players that are average/depth players but I find that hard to buy into when guys like Mackay not only stay on the list but play just about every single week.
 
I would love if we had a crack at Barrett now that Barlow looks set for GC

I preferred him from the beginning, seems unlikely though
 
Have the Gold Coast officially delisted Garlett? Suns are saying now he's not allowed to play any football for the next 2 years because he's contracted, so if that's the case then that'd mean they've just let him go back home, but he's still a listed player for them?
 

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Doobie Doedee said:
I would love if we had a crack at Barrett now that Barlow looks set for GC

I preferred him from the beginning, seems unlikely though
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If he was 6 years older they might think about it. They're avoiding playing youth in the midfield as it is, he wouldn't get a crack at all
 
The Sloane Ranger said:
Suns just delisted Garlett which probably indicates that they will pick up a DFA today
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Gee :eek: .....would pick him up in a flash !!

Must be some settling in issues, because he's highly talented
 
Doobie Doedee said:
I would love if we had a crack at Barrett now that Barlow looks set for GC

I preferred him from the beginning, seems unlikely though
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Why? .....no reason at all, if the Crows felt he could be a valuable contributor, we couldn't get Barrett as a DFA

If we don't, it means we don't want him ....or Barrett prefers to stay on a rookie list o_O
 
Danger in Texas said:
If we're judging Lyons on his talent level and production, he's worth more than a 3rd round pick. Heck, Levi Greenwood got pick 25 after his career-best year. Now, Greenwood has declined since then, but who's to say Lyons will, too? Just how can you prove that? In other words, we definitely got unders for Lyons.

Yes, Wright was good in 2012. In his final three years at the Crows, though, he only went downhill. Can't help that, if a player regresses, he regresses, you can't predict that. Lyons has likely reached his ceiling, but you just can't say for certain that he'll follow the same path as Wright.

My point is, yes we have more talented players on our list, but all of them aren't ready to perform consistently 2017 like Lyons could have. Again, we'll only have three (maybe four, but unlikely due to Dougie's age) truly effective inside mids playing in our firsts team next year. All the others suggested either won't be ready to consistently perform, or are best used in another position on the field.
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But can you guarantee that Lyons would have continued to perform? You would be guessing too. On Wright, has he regressed or did his role chance significantly? In 2012 he was primarily a midfielder who sometimes rested forward. In his later years at the Crows he was primarily a defensive forward who sometimes moved through the midfield. Of course his production would decline.

Now that he went Carlton he all of a sudden is better than he was with Crows. I doubt that. His role changed.

When Levi Greenwood was traded for pick 25 he had done more at AFL level than Lyons. You also can't say pick 25 in one year has identical value to pick 25 in another year. It doesn't work like that. The value of the pick is directly dependent on the quality and the depth of the draft pool as judged at the time of the trade.

Look I am not saying Lyons is crap. What I am saying is that majority seem to overrate him after a good consistent season. So many players of his talent level have had years like Lyons and then "regressed". Wright was a clear example of that. As someone who has been a bit of a Lyons fan for years, I think the mix needed to change in order for us to get to the next level. That means that one of Lyons or Matt Crouch needed to go as they are similar midfielders and are similar size, style and pace as midfielders.

Now as a forward who rotated through the midfield, again the mix in the midfield needed to change and the likes of Knight and Menzel are far more talented as forwards than Lyons and when they rotate through the midfield they provide something that Lyons can't and that is in Menzel's case size and in Knight's pace.

You keep on saying that no one of the list will not be able to perform next year as well as Lyons would have but at the start of the year not many had Lyons or Atkins down to have the sort of the year they did. Players in certain age groups tend to improve dramatically in a single preseason when they apply themselves. I have no doubt that Knight can come into the side next year taking Lyons' spot and performing just as well if not better than Lyons did.

We had 3 midfielders that were similar in terms of size, style and pace and those were Thompson, Matt Crouch and Lyons. Next year we will most likely have only one in Matt Crouch with Lyons gone and Thompson to spend most of the year in SANFL.
 
Stiffy_18 said:
I simply ask where was this support for Lyons as little as 12 months ago? Was there not a thread dedicated to Lyons along the lines of should midfielders take this long?

If anyone is rewriting history its those that have their knickers in a knot that Lyons was forced out for the picks exchange we got.
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You havent been around much if you think Lyons wasnt getting support 12 months ago.

As for that thread, wasn't it more aimed at the selectors and club for not giving him a proper go in 6 years rather than a criticism of Lyons. And guess what? We were right because in his first full player of actually getting a chance he was one of our best mids.

Imagine what he might be like after 2 full seasons?
 
Danger in Texas said:
If we're judging Lyons on his talent level and production, he's worth more than a 3rd round pick. Heck, Levi Greenwood got pick 25 after his career-best year. Now, Greenwood has declined since then, but who's to say Lyons will, too? Just how can you prove that? In other words, we definitely got unders for Lyons.

Yes, Wright was good in 2012. In his final three years at the Crows, though, he only went downhill. Can't help that, if a player regresses, he regresses, you can't predict that. Lyons has likely reached his ceiling, but you just can't say for certain that he'll follow the same path as Wright.

My point is, yes we have more talented players on our list, but all of them aren't ready to perform consistently 2017 like Lyons could have. Again, we'll only have three (maybe four, but unlikely due to Dougie's age) truly effective inside mids playing in our firsts team next year. All the others suggested either won't be ready to consistently perform, or are best used in another position on the field.
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Levi Greenwood went pick 25 in a very ordinary draft with no depth which was know before the trade period began,
We need to understand a Player worth compared to the Current draft,
 

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