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Certified Legendary Thread Nathan Freeman Updates

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Our 2nd pick will likely be around pick 30 with the academy kids slotting in underneath so its not like we are going to be missing out on any top rounders and I reckon that would have put us outside those couple of sliders who we rate.
 
St_Laz said:
Jesse smiths injury was and ankle, not hammies. And Cyril is playing career best footy and rarely injured.

So....
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both Jesse and Cyril were talked up about 'relearning' running to overcome injuries. Hence the comparison.

Cyril is playing excellent footy, but isn't playing career best footy. A few years ago he was playing his career best form playing midfield.
Inbetween continually pinging hammies of course.
He hasn't been injured lately, because they only let him run around inside 50.

That could be Nathan's plan B too- who knows?
I'm certainly not holding my breath waiting for Nathan to ever be a fulltime mid though.
 
bergholt said:
Nah, we overpaid at the time. Plenty of people said it, both here and on SS. I was definitely one of them but I wasn't on my lonesome. He might come good, I hope he does; but that doesn't change the fact that a second round pick was just too high for a guy who'd barely played a game of competitive footy in years.
.
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Since when do fans on forums have any faint idea on what is value & what is overs?

Quoting anonymous supporters in an asylum like SS? To back up your own view?

I've read it all now.



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Kilroy said:
Don’t give up yet mate. Sometimes asking the right question is the best solution.

I despaired too when I used to watch Xavier Clark succumb to hamstrings. I didn’t have the tools to suggest what I thought in my mind was the problem. Always figured it was to do with how he ran.

My understanding doesn’t come from being a sports scientist but I was an elite runner in my time and knew well how to run “efficiently”. The problems with Cyril Rioli’s running are well expressed by Andrew Russell, Head Fitness Coach at Hawthorn, in the video below.

He admits it takes thousands of hours, and that they constantly videoed Cyril’s running gait and gave him feedback on his centre of gravity, his posture and how compact his gait was. Cyril says it was hard and frustrating, but it was obviously worth it. Perhaps his time more forward of the ball has helped too but the point is the running training certainly helped, but more importantly it was striving to solve the initial problem at it's root cause.

Bursting out of the middle has been one of Freeman’s strongest traits and will certainly test anyone’s hammies, but the hardest part is when fatigue sets in and in footy there’s so many other things to pay attention to other than just how your centre of gravity is.

I keep thinking about how Robert Harvey used to do it. Little steps, lifting your knees rather than just pushing off with your trailing leg and stretching that hammy to breaking point. Harves was always on the balls of his feet rather than his heels and was very good at decelerating too. You cannot underestimate the importance of how supremely fit he was as well.

I really hope this kind of training can be a turning point in Freezer’s career. Similarly I see room for improvement with Jack Billings’ long loping running style. Maybe we should do something like what the Dogs did last year and hire Craig Mottram for a refresher on how to run efficiently and the fundamental importance of base fitness.

Click to expand...


I don't doubt that the running training can and does do wonders.
Particularly in the sport of running, where you can concentrate close to 100% on maintaining the technique you have practiced in training.

I DO however doubt if an athlete who has spent their first 20 years on earth running one way... can change their running gait etc sufficiently to allow them to maintain that technique when they are being chased by an opponent, or hunting a ball, plus when fatigued as you mentioned.

Football players have to concentrate on a million other things, they don't have the time to concentrate on running technique in a game situation- that's the autopilot stuff.
 

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Nutsngum said:
Our 2nd pick will likely be around pick 30 with the academy kids slotting in underneath so its not like we are going to be missing out on any top rounders and I reckon that would have put us outside those couple of sliders who we rate.
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Not having a 2nd round pick this year hurts far more in terms of limiting our trade options than who we miss that gets drafted at that pick.

Plus as I've said previously- forget the academy picks, they are off limits to us and everyone else.
So including them in any justification is misleading.
 
Winmar2Lockett said:
Since when do fans on forums have any faint idea on what is value & what is overs?

Quoting anonymous supporters in an asylum like SS? To back up your own view?

I've read it all now.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Settle down mate. None of us have played AFL, yet we all have an opinion on it. Same goes for AFL trading. Yet, we all can laugh collectively knowing that Carlton is desparate and silly for getting Liam Jones from the dogs - who haven't had a quality KPP forward since Barry Hall retired. Yet the dogs were letting Liam Jones go. So, somethings we can tell quite easily, others not so. Even more funny was that Bulldogs drafted Caleb Daniel with the pick.

I do remember others questioning it at the time as well. So, it's nothing radical. The word here was 3rd rounder, so it was a little high when it turned out to be to be a 2nd rounder.

Also, bergholt is a well regarded senior poster here.

It's hard to quote, because last year's trade thread was almost a 1000 pages long. Good luck finding anything you want to quote from there.
 
Moorabbin Ghost said:
When somebody describes "hamstring awareness", all it means is that they could feel tight or sore. Doesn't necessarily mean there's an injury. Do you realise how many AFL players get precautionary scans because of muscle awareness? It doesn't mean Nathan is struggling mentally.
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Where did I say Nathan was struggling mentally?
 
The_Steadier said:
I don't doubt that the running training can and does do wonders.
Particularly in the sport of running, where you can concentrate close to 100% on maintaining the technique you have practiced in training.

I DO however doubt if an athlete who has spent their first 20 years on earth running one way... can change their running gait etc sufficiently to allow them to maintain that technique when they are being chased by an opponent, or hunting a ball, plus when fatigued as you mentioned.

Football players have to concentrate on a million other things, they don't have the time to concentrate on running technique in a game situation- that's the autopilot stuff.
Click to expand...
You definitely can. It takes hour and hours of "motor relearning". There is a good interview with Michael Clarke talking about changing his technique to combat his hamstring issues. Basically they told him to run however he wants in the middle but all his running at training is to be done with strict technique. After hundreds of hours of this it transformed his technique when running quick singles in Test matches.
 
The_Steadier said:
I don't doubt that the running training can and does do wonders.
Particularly in the sport of running, where you can concentrate close to 100% on maintaining the technique you have practiced in training.

I DO however doubt if an athlete who has spent their first 20 years on earth running one way... can change their running gait etc sufficiently to allow them to maintain that technique when they are being chased by an opponent, or hunting a ball, plus when fatigued as you mentioned.

Football players have to concentrate on a million other things, they don't have the time to concentrate on running technique in a game situation- that's the autopilot stuff.
Click to expand...
Have to agree that all the variables in a game of footy make concentrating on technique (any of them for that matter) difficult. But in the video on Cyril they do talk about how you can change the programming in the motor cortex in your brain over time if you keep at it.

Obviously if you are not as dedicated as a Cyril Rioli or a Robert Harvey then you won't work as hard as they do or reach those heights, but we're not talking rocket-science here. They work as hard as they do cos they can see the point of their actions. Does Freezer see the benefit in refining his running technique?

Maybe, maybe not, but it's a different question from whether changing the way you move could become second nature or whether it can protect your hammies, and may ultimately be the more important question. Does Freezer really see the point? Is he dedicated enough to change the way he bursts from a pack or manoeuvres through traffic?

The issue about overall fitness needs emphasising here too. The more tired players get usually the less limbering and bouncing they do to prepare themselves for sudden bursts in any direction. Both fatigue and these little maintenance actions are affected by their overall fitness. Concentration or focus is another aspect that gets harder as players tire, but a lack of general fitness alone can lure you into taking shortcuts with the one-percenters like balance or taking fast little steps through a situation rather than over-reaching. Is he really fit enough?

No doubt Freezer's gonna need some luck too but with the kind of focus, determination and sense of purpose we're talking about here, to some degree you make your own luck.
 
The fact he is stringing games together is a major bonus and exciting for the future. He is obviously just conditioning his body & mind again to playing. I am much more bouyant now that he will return to full speed/capacities and be a sucessful trade for our Rd2 pick.

We shouldnt be concerned if he plays the rest of the season in 2nd gear whilst he remains injury free and further conditions his body.
 
Nutsngum said:
Our 2nd pick will likely be around pick 30 with the academy kids slotting in underneath so its not like we are going to be missing out on any top rounders and I reckon that would have put us outside those couple of sliders who we rate.
Click to expand...

More like around pick 35- 37 baed in current ladder standing. There's about 7-9 academy/father sons in the first 2 rounds.
 
Not sure yet weather we paid to much for Freeman with a 2nd rounder, will wait for the half mark of next year and see how he is going
and how the Hammie is standing up. Nathan was always a long term project, even if we have paid a little bit too much for him we are still
miles in front with our drafting the last couple of years, Bruce, Membrey, Robbo, also Dunstan and Arces pick 18 & 19 Then we have Gresham & Carlise.
 

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bergholt said:
Pick 10s for the last however long:

1998: Brandon Hill
1999: Luke McPharlin
2000: Jordan McMahon
2001: Sam Power
2002: Jason Laycock
2003: Ryley Dunn
2004: Chris Egan
2005: Marcus Drum
2006: Nathan Brown (Collingwood)
2007: Paddy Dangerfield
2008: Phil Davis
2009: Jake Melksham
2010: Daniel Gorringe
2011: Liam Sumner
2012: Joe Daniher (fs)
2013: Nathan Freeman
2014: Nakia Cockatoo
2015: Harry McKay

Pretty mixed results tbh. 50% strike rate? Less? And that's not taking into account his injuries.
Click to expand...
What is the SR for for pick 30?
 
bergholt said:
Pick 10s for the last however long:

1998: Brandon Hill
1999: Luke McPharlin
2000: Jordan McMahon
2001: Sam Power
2002: Jason Laycock
2003: Ryley Dunn
2004: Chris Egan
2005: Marcus Drum
2006: Nathan Brown (Collingwood)
2007: Paddy Dangerfield
2008: Phil Davis
2009: Jake Melksham
2010: Daniel Gorringe
2011: Liam Sumner
2012: Joe Daniher (fs)
2013: Nathan Freeman
2014: Nakia Cockatoo
2015: Harry McKay

Pretty mixed results tbh. 50% strike rate? Less? And that's not taking into account his injuries.
Click to expand...


Apart from Danger it's got a lot of meh and not a lot of wow in that list. Mc Phalin was a good defender for a long time but was probably a step down from a star player. Cockatoo looks alright but the rest are all a bit nothing or spuds. Davis and Mc Mahon are underrated but not really amazing. Brown is injury prone...Mc Kay should be okay.
 
bird_man said:
What is the SR for for pick 30?
Click to expand...

Fair question, we can probably work out mathematically what the odds ratio is using that. Pick 30 over the same period:

1998: Nicky Winmar (the second time)
1999: Jonathon Brown (fs)
2000: Sav Rocca (the second time)
2001: Rod Crowe
2002: Daniel Merrett
2003: Brad Symes
2004: Andrew Lee
2005: Nick Lower
2006: Ricky Petterd
2007: Jarrhan Jacky
2008: Dan Hannebery
2009: Luke Ball (the second time)
2010: Jake Batchelor
2011: Elliot Yeo
2012: Mason Shaw
2013: Trent Dumont
2014: Brayden Maynard
2015: Mason Redman

So I reckon the good ones there (B-grade and better) are Brown, Merrett, Hannebery; probably Yeo, Dumont, Maynard (though early days). So strike rate of pick 30 is about 33% (6/18).

Good ones (B-grade and better) from pick 10: McPharlin, McMahon (maybe), Brown, Dangerfield, Davis, Melksham, Daniher, Cockatoo (though early days). So strike rate of pick 10 is about 44% (8/18).

So if Freeman had a base 44% chance of being decent (as a pick 10), but his injuries have halved that, then that's a 22% chance. Worse than the 33% we would have got from pick 30.

Or, looking at it another way, there had to be a 33/44 = 75% chance of him getting through his injury worries in order for us to come out even on the odds.

I reckon he was always less than a 75% chance of getting through it, probably closer to the 50%, so therefore this supports my original contention that our second rounder was too much to pay.

Agree/disagree?
 
bergholt said:
Fair question, we can probably work out mathematically what the odds ratio is using that. Pick 30 over the same period:

1998: Nicky Winmar (the second time)
1999: Jonathon Brown (fs)
2000: Sav Rocca (the second time)
2001: Rod Crowe
2002: Daniel Merrett
2003: Brad Symes
2004: Andrew Lee
2005: Nick Lower
2006: Ricky Petterd
2007: Jarrhan Jacky
2008: Dan Hannebery
2009: Luke Ball (the second time)
2010: Jake Batchelor
2011: Elliot Yeo
2012: Mason Shaw
2013: Trent Dumont
2014: Brayden Maynard
2015: Mason Redman

So I reckon the good ones there (B-grade and better) are Brown, Merrett, Hannebery; probably Yeo, Dumont, Maynard (though early days). So strike rate of pick 30 is about 33% (6/18).

Good ones (B-grade and better) from pick 10: McPharlin, McMahon (maybe), Brown, Dangerfield, Davis, Melksham, Daniher, Cockatoo (though early days). So strike rate of pick 10 is about 44% (8/18).

So if Freeman had a base 44% chance of being decent (as a pick 10), but his injuries have halved that, then that's a 22% chance. Worse than the 33% we would have got from pick 30.

Or, looking at it another way, there had to be a 33/44 = 75% chance of him getting through his injury worries in order for us to come out even on the odds.

I reckon he was always less than a 75% chance of getting through it, probably closer to the 50%, so therefore this supports my original contention that our second rounder was too much to pay.

Agree/disagree?
Click to expand...


What?
 

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Impatient Saint said:
The fact he is stringing games together is a major bonus and exciting for the future. He is obviously just conditioning his body & mind again to playing. I am much more bouyant now that he will return to full speed/capacities and be a sucessful trade for our Rd2 pick.

We shouldnt be concerned if he plays the rest of the season in 2nd gear whilst he remains injury free and further conditions his body.
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Impatient Saint making a mockey of his username!
:)

I hope you're right.

Also, all you peeps taking father son/academy picks into consideration make baby jesus cry.

The_Steadier said:
Putting all freeman issues aside- this whole including the academy and F/S selections drives me nuts.

Sure our 2nd round pick will indeed be the 35th best 18 year old in the land.

Except the fact is we only have access to 25 of those 35 best 18 year olds!!

The other 10 f/s and academy picks are locked away from us-they aren't an option.
Forget about them- they don't exist to us.

So freeman will have effectively cost us pick 25 (or whatever it happens to be at the end of the year).
That's an undisputable fact.
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freebloke said:
Settle down mate. None of us have played AFL, yet we all have an opinion on it. Same goes for AFL trading. Yet, we all can laugh collectively knowing that Carlton is desparate and silly for getting Liam Jones from the dogs - who haven't had a quality KPP forward since Barry Hall retired. Yet the dogs were letting Liam Jones go. So, somethings we can tell quite easily, others not so. Even more funny was that Bulldogs drafted Caleb Daniel with the pick.

I do remember others questioning it at the time as well. So, it's nothing radical. The word here was 3rd rounder, so it was a little high when it turned out to be to be a 2nd rounder.

Also, bergholt is a well regarded senior poster here.

It's hard to quote, because last year's trade thread was almost a 1000 pages long. Good luck finding anything you want to quote from there.
Click to expand...

Not sure where you took anything from my post to suggest Bergholt or anyone else isn't entitled to their opinion.

My point was that he was suggesting that his opinion was the correct one because a few others on here & on Saintsational thought the same. Categorically so.

The 'word' on here with both the Freeman trade & Carlisle deal was unrealistic (which I got caught up in too mind you).

My point is that you can't reference what anonymous people on the internet think as a source of legitimate proof.

Whether we paid overs or unders or correct value for Freeman won't be able to be accurately called until the end of his career.

And what's your definition of a senior poster? Do they have more credibility than 'junior' posters?


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bergholt said:
Fair question, we can probably work out mathematically what the odds ratio is using that. Pick 30 over the same period:

1998: Nicky Winmar (the second time)
1999: Jonathon Brown (fs)
2000: Sav Rocca (the second time)
2001: Rod Crowe
2002: Daniel Merrett
2003: Brad Symes
2004: Andrew Lee
2005: Nick Lower
2006: Ricky Petterd
2007: Jarrhan Jacky
2008: Dan Hannebery
2009: Luke Ball (the second time)
2010: Jake Batchelor
2011: Elliot Yeo
2012: Mason Shaw
2013: Trent Dumont
2014: Brayden Maynard
2015: Mason Redman

So I reckon the good ones there (B-grade and better) are Brown, Merrett, Hannebery; probably Yeo, Dumont, Maynard (though early days). So strike rate of pick 30 is about 33% (6/18).

Good ones (B-grade and better) from pick 10: McPharlin, McMahon (maybe), Brown, Dangerfield, Davis, Melksham, Daniher, Cockatoo (though early days). So strike rate of pick 10 is about 44% (8/18).

So if Freeman had a base 44% chance of being decent (as a pick 10), but his injuries have halved that, then that's a 22% chance. Worse than the 33% we would have got from pick 30.

Or, looking at it another way, there had to be a 33/44 = 75% chance of him getting through his injury worries in order for us to come out even on the odds.

I reckon he was always less than a 75% chance of getting through it, probably closer to the 50%, so therefore this supports my original contention that our second rounder was too much to pay.

Agree/disagree?
Click to expand...

it probably makes more sense if you did it over a range of picks , like 30-35 .
I went through the exercise once comparing earlier picks to later.
I goes sort of flat after a certain level .
Also it depends on the draft. Each draftee is a unique individual.

Pick 30 2005 could have given Sam Gilbert, or Bernie VInce or Andrew Swallow.
2006. Kurt Tippett, Todd Goldstein or Bachar Houli
2007 Greenwood, Reid,Scott Thompson, or Jack Steven
2008 Steven Motlop, Rory Sloane, Rhys Stanley, Shane Savage, Liam Shiels
2009 Max Gawn, Sam Reid, Dylan Roberton.

The prizes are still there in the later picks , its just harder to find them.
 

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