Opinion Non-Crows AFL 12: It's the confectionery with 1000 uses

[adelaidecrows]

That's why they're highly paid

They know going in that next year is never certain. Plus Goody will walk into any club as an assistant anyway if he chooses. Im sure Roo has already made the phone call.

 

[MrBarry]

Record vs top 8 is sobering

0-1 Collingwood
1-0 Brisbane
0-1 Geelong
0-1 Freo
1-1 Suns
1-1 Hawthorn
1-0 Giants

4-5

It's absolutely fine relative to the other teams around us who have similar records..... and you have conveniently left out the Bulldogs who will almost certainly make the top 8.

We also lost that Suns away game by a point and the Hawthorn away game by 3 points, the record could easily be the best in the league but for a kick.

I think you are downplaying just how good we have been this year.

 

[Samcro24]

It's absolutely fine relative to the other teams around us who have similar records..... and you have conveniently left out the Bulldogs who will almost certainly make the top 8.

We also lost that Suns away game by a point and the Hawthorn away game by 3 points, the record could easily be the best in the league but for a kick.

I think you are downplaying just how good we have been this year.

Nah.

We’ve been very good. But we’ve gone all out, which you’d expect given the recent history.

I think we need to go another level to get anywhere this year though. I’m not sure we have it yet.

There’s always a lot of hype around us when we hit form in the home stretch. From the fans, the local media, even the interstate media get on. We’re in the midst of that now.

Our form has been excellent, just don’t think it’s premiership form.

Very happy to be wrong.

 

[footy4ever]

There is a possibility the only games left outside of Adelaide are West Coast, North Melbourne and the grand final.

When you put it that way my heart skips a beat!!

 

[AFC979810]

If the run home had us playing Collingwood at the G, or Brisbane away, or Geelong away, would we win?

And how would we view our chances now if one of those games burst the bubble?

There’s a bit of a false sense of invincibility at the moment I feel.

Who cares?

What happens in the regular season doesn't bloody matter outside of where you finish. It's all about getting to the finals with momentum and healthy and fit and hoping for some luck.

Remember 2005? We had won 9 in a row and went over to Perth and had a massive statement win over the Eagles by 8 points to win the minor premiership. We then proceeded to lose 2/3 finals.

In 2022 - Collingwood went 10-0 in games decided by 7 points or less and then lost two finals - each by 1 point.

The next 3 games matter for only 2 things:

1. Winning enough or by enough to ensuring we finish top 2
2. As few injuries as possible.

 

[AFC979810]

Hinkley should reverse his decision

Hinkley to Melbourne. Wins a flag after our 3 peat.

 

[moogerfooger]

Collingwood resting players for the GC game probably lost them the game and with the way they’re going now, possibly top four. Arguably they may be in a position where they can’t rest players they’d like to for fear of dropping another game.

The potential knock on them was always going to be how healthy their aging list would be at the end of the season.

It'd be interesting to know to what extent they've been managing players because of the luxury of their ladder position vs what they would have been forced to do anyway. Its possible it was all part of the grand plan but its also possible they're collectively running out of steam.

 

[WeeBlake]

It’s a bit like 2016 imo, no truly dominant team. Most even top 8 (9) I can remember. Bummer we have so little finals experience because it is up for grabs this year.

 

[MrBarry]

Nah.

We’ve been very good. But we’ve gone all out, which you’d expect given the recent history.

I think we need to go another level to get anywhere this year though. I’m not sure we have it yet.

There’s always a lot of hype around us when we hit form in the home stretch. From the fans, the local media, even the interstate media get on. We’re in the midst of that now.

Our form has been excellent, just don’t think it’s premiership form.

Very happy to be wrong.

Then who is in premiership form? We just beat Gold Coast by 10 goals who then beat Brisbane by 10 goals a week later....

 

[FR0GGY]

Top 9 record against each other now sits as this,

Brisbane 7-4
Geelong 6-4
Freo 6-2
Adelaide 5-5
Collingwood 5-5
GC 5-5
GWS 5-5
Hawthorn 3-6
Bulldogs 2-8

Freo with the softest draw so far, Brisbane the hardest.

 

[Cromulant]

Nah.

We’ve been very good. But we’ve gone all out, which you’d expect given the recent history.

I think we need to go another level to get anywhere this year though. I’m not sure we have it yet.

There’s always a lot of hype around us when we hit form in the home stretch. From the fans, the local media, even the interstate media get on. We’re in the midst of that now.

Our form has been excellent, just don’t think it’s premiership form.

Very happy to be wrong.

Who's is premiership form then ??

Collingwood are in a trough, Brisbane got annihilated 2 weeks ago and have also lost to Melbourne at home, GWS got belted by a side not even in the 8, Hawthorn look shakey, and Geelong are making the most of a very soft end of season fixtures.

I think its about time you realised we're in as good of form as anyone

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Record vs top 8 is sobering

0-1 Collingwood
1-0 Brisbane
0-1 Geelong
0-1 Freo
1-1 Suns
1-1 Hawthorn
1-0 Giants

4-5

If you go through most of the top 9, only Freo stands out with a great record. The rest are roughly even.

 

[FR0GGY]

Who's is premiership form then ??

Collingwood are in a trough, Brisbane got annihilated 2 weeks ago and have also lost to Melbourne at home, GWS got belted by a side not even in the 8, Hawthorn look shakey, and Geelong are making the most of a very soft end of season fixtures.

I think its about time you realised we're in as good of form as anyone

I guess he’s saying premiership form is beating top 9 sides away from home, like Brisbane just did, but we did that by beating the bulldogs too.
We can only play who we can play though.
Finish top 2 and we are in this up to our eyeballs.
Last Friday was finals like pressure against us and we passed the test.

 

[pjcrows]

You’re giving them way too much credit.

I don't think you're giving them enough

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Nah.

We’ve been very good. But we’ve gone all out, which you’d expect given the recent history.

I think we need to go another level to get anywhere this year though. I’m not sure we have it yet.

There’s always a lot of hype around us when we hit form in the home stretch. From the fans, the local media, even the interstate media get on. We’re in the midst of that now.

Our form has been excellent, just don’t think it’s premiership form.

Very happy to be wrong.

So top of the ladder with the best percentage and no loss over 19 points in 20 games is not good enough to be considered a premiership threat?

So, by your logic, no team is a premiership threat? Because I could poke holes in every top 9 team bigger than that.

No team is perfect, but one of them has to win it.

 

[StonesThrow]

No way ports will finish 13th in 2026 if they have NWM. They’ll finish higher than that.
They’ll have a softer draw , and with a bit of luck less injuries. They’ll be around the top8 mark .

Realistically he’s worth a top 5 pick in a current year draft (in an uncompromised draft) , as well as another top 10 pick.

2 future first rounders that can be up to pick 18 wont cut it.

Yeah people overrate draft picks imo.

You've got (with certainty) an elite player who is a proven match winner. They're not far off being the best player in the comp.

Then you've got two first round picks with very high uncertainty as to whether they'll be a half decent player. Top 5-10 picks are still very uncertain.

He's worth two top 5 picks at least.

 

[Greenfinger]

Nah.

We’ve been very good. But we’ve gone all out, which you’d expect given the recent history.

I think we need to go another level to get anywhere this year though. I’m not sure we have it yet.

There’s always a lot of hype around us when we hit form in the home stretch. From the fans, the local media, even the interstate media get on. We’re in the midst of that now.

Our form has been excellent, just don’t think it’s premiership form.

Very happy to be wrong.

What would you have us doing in addition to be in premiership form? No question we are in contention. Doesn’t mean we will deliver but we are right in the mix . You sound like the sam Manure bloke

 

[Greenfinger]

Top 9 record against each other now sits as this,

Brisbane 7-4
Geelong 6-4
Freo 6-2
Adelaide 5-5
Collingwood 5-5
GC 5-5
GWS 5-5
Hawthorn 3-6
Bulldogs 2-8

Would be interesting to see the home and away overlay over this

 

[WeeBlake]

Yeah people overrate draft picks imo.

You've got (with certainty) an elite player who is a proven match winner. They're not far off being the best player in the comp.

Then you've got two first round picks with very high uncertainty as to whether they'll be a half decent player. Top 5-10 picks are still very uncertain.

He's worth two top 5 picks at least.

Geelong understands this and it is why they have stayed successful

 

[StonesThrow]

Geelong understands this and it is why they have stayed successful

Yeah true, but the annoying thing is they still don't part with high draft picks anyway!

 

[Bovo]

Yeah people overrate draft picks imo.

You've got (with certainty) an elite player who is a proven match winner. They're not far off being the best player in the comp.

Then you've got two first round picks with very high uncertainty as to whether they'll be a half decent player. Top 5-10 picks are still very uncertain.

He's worth two top 5 picks at least.

Ironically if they trade for future firsts, they’ll be giving them a player who will probably negatively impact those future firsts

 

[Bovo]

I don't think you're giving them enough

Well they lost to Brisbane at The G and have put themselves in a precarious situation because the Hawks are no walk in the park. That doesn’t sound like they are priming for finals and if they are, then they are tempting fate.

 

[Cromulant]

Well they lost to Brisbane at The G and have put themselves in a precarious situation because the Hawks are no walk in the park. That doesn’t sound like they are priming for finals and if they are, then they are tempting fate.

The Hawks without Will Day are a different proposition

That said, Collingwood have similar strengths and weaknesses to Hawthorn.

 

[Southerntakeover]

It’s a bit like 2016 imo, no truly dominant team. Most even top 8 (9) I can remember. Bummer we have so little finals experience because it is up for grabs this year.

I don't really understand the rules around finals experience. If we make a prelim everyone in the team's played two finals.

Is that worse than if we'd made eliminations twice in previous years and lost?

 

[SugarShane]

Or we just win the next three.

If we can't beat Collingwood at home, no point getting excited about Finals.

Not necessarily. You often see reverse results late in a season. Notably Port v Geelong in late 2007, Hawthorn v West Coast in the first week of 2015 finals. Sometimes you learn more from a loss and the team that beat you gets complacent. Though if that's true, we should be able to write a series of novels on how to beat Collingwood.