Mega Thread Non-Freo AFL Discussion 2024

[Purple Jesus]

Like Rommel was the best nazi, I guess

 

[Joao]

Collingwood won a total of 3 finals by how many points.

They were all nail biters.

Yes they have mastered the art of closing out a tight game. But let's be real I haven't seen a team get over the line continuously in a 1-goal game like they have in past 2 years.

They aren't the dominant premier like Hawthorn or Richmond were in there dynasties. The gap isn't that big it's about teams learning how to deal with the pressure of a tight game as good as Collingwood.

That too.

It's at the point where those results are clearly not a fluke, but if other teams start training the same thing, then they don't have that competitive advantage anymore.

Will be interesting to see if that is the case this year. I think teams that think they are in the top 4 mix should absolutely be putting a lot of work into it.

 

[BStaff17]

That too.

It's at the point where those results are clearly not a fluke, but if other teams start training the same thing, then they don't have that competitive advantage anymore.

Will be interesting to see if that is the case this year. I think teams that think they are in the top 4 mix should absolutely be putting a lot of work into it.

Its not a fluke but gee some of there wins have been quite freakish and a luck as well.

The Carlton & Essendon wins in 2022 for example took for those 2 teams to shit to bed for them to pounce really. Like Essendon had a shot with 55 seconds to left to go from a 3 pt to a 9 pt lead and missed instead of passing it around. Collingwood went end to end to the pocket and Elliott kicked a goal from 50m from the boundary.

The Prelim & GF last year could have gone either way really. Its not like the gap is as big as some pundits are making it out to be. They are just masters in a close game.

 

[Joao]

Its not a fluke but gee some of there wins have been quite freakish and a luck as well.

The Carlton & Essendon wins in 2022 for example took for those 2 teams to s**t to bed for them to pounce really. Like Essendon had a shot with 55 seconds to left to go from a 3 pt to a 9 pt lead and missed instead of passing it around. Collingwood went end to end to the pocket and Elliott kicked a goal from 50m from the boundary.

The Prelim & GF last year could have gone either way really. Its not like the gap is as big as some pundits are making it out to be. They are just masters in a close game.

Definitely.

I would say there is some non-zero contribution from their training and experience but also some non-zero luck contribution. It seems like the luck has mostly gone their way and that could definitely change. As you say, it happens in the prelim and they're not premiers.

 

[Paracleet]

There is no skill or training method behind winning nearly all your close games. It's pure luck.
Sure you might win more than your share with determination, experience and, perhaps most importantly, belief. But all of them is luck. Any other interpretation is magical thinking.

 

[Orange crush]

There is no skill or training method behind winning nearly all your close games. It's pure luck.
Sure you might win more than your share with determination, experience and, perhaps most importantly, belief. But all of them is luck. Any other interpretation is magical thinking.

They’ll win them until they don’t and then the outcry will be “oh, we’ve been really unlucky “

 

[The Feeder Club]

It's funny, the more I practice the luckier I get.

Can't remember which golfer said it.

 

[BStaff17]

There is no skill or training method behind winning nearly all your close games. It's pure luck.
Sure you might win more than your share with determination, experience and, perhaps most importantly, belief. But all of them is luck. Any other interpretation is magical thinking.

I think in 2016 we won 3 games straight in the last minute didnt we from pure luck.

Mccarthy toe poke at the MCG against the Dees
Kersten fluke from the boundary against the Roos at Subi
Mundy at the G against the Tigers after the siren.

 

[Dockeroo]

It's funny, the more I practice the luckier I get.

Can't remember which golfer said it.

Gary Player

 

[Orange crush]

It's funny, the more I practice the luckier I get.

Can't remember which golfer said it.

Yeah I remember Gary Player getting legged going inside 50, no call and losing a PF by a point

 

[Paracleet]

I think in 2016 we won 3 games straight in the last minute didnt we from pure luck.

Mccarthy toe poke at the MCG against the Dees
Kersten fluke from the boundary against the Roos at Subi
Mundy at the G against the Tigers after the siren.

2017. Rounds 4, 5 and 8. I checked afltables because pedantry is important.

Fun fact I had forgotten - After Mundy kicked the goal after the siren the following week we beat Carlton at home by 6 goals: We were actually in the 8 at the conclusion of round 9.
The next week we lost to Crom by 100 points.

 

[Joao]

There is no skill or training method behind winning nearly all your close games. It's pure luck.
Sure you might win more than your share with determination, experience and, perhaps most importantly, belief. But all of them is luck. Any other interpretation is magical thinking.

I thought that initially (definitely in 2022), but I reckon the statistical significance of that many samples is getting hard to ignore.

Don't get me wrong, I'm mad keen for some reversion to the mean and the sweet top 10 pick it could bring.

 

[Paracleet]

I thought that initially (definitely in 2022), but I reckon the statistical significance of that many samples is getting hard to ignore.

Don't get me wrong, I'm mad keen for some reversion to the mean and the sweet top 10 pick it could bring.

The pure luck run was 2022 I agree. This year they were good enough to make the finals with only very moderate luck (4-1 record in regular season games decided by a goal or less). Winning three finals collectively by 12 points might seem lucky but really it's not all that unlikely given they are close to 50/50 games to begin with.

I can't see how people can conclude it's not luck when they got significantly outplayed in two of those games though. I mean their master plan can't have included conceding 69(!) to 37 inside 50s in the qualifier against Melbourne can it?

As for the sweet sweet top ten pick there is no particular reason why they couldn't get more luck before reverting. That seems like a very Freo thing to happen. They'll probably finish third or something then trade their F1 to West Coast...

 

[Joao]

The pure luck run was 2022 I agree. This year they were good enough to make the finals with only very moderate luck (4-1 record in regular season games decided by a goal or less). Winning three finals collectively by 12 points might seem lucky but really it's not all that unlikely given they are close to 50/50 games to begin with.

I can't see how people can conclude it's not luck when they got significantly outplayed in two of those games though. I mean their master plan can't have included conceding 69(!) to 37 inside 50s in the qualifier against Melbourne can it?

As for the sweet sweet top ten pick there is no particular reason why they couldn't get more luck before reverting. That seems like a very Freo thing to happen. They'll probably finish third or something then trade their F1 to West Coast...

Possibly, it's hard to be sure of. The Dees have a habit of dominating everywhere but the scoreboard. I'm willing to have my mind changed for sure.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Yeah I remember Gary Player getting legged going inside 50, no call and losing a PF by a point

I don't think the quote means there's no such thing as luck, it just means some of what's attributed to and appears to be luck is actually a result of hard work/planning. That holds true for football.

 

[DQ 4EVER]

ACL for Blanck

That sucks

Horrible 4 the guy
Might also impact the effectiveness of Sicily as Blanck served as a good lock down, thus allowing Sicily to float free & dominate

On SM-G960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[serial_thrilla]

Eagles fans praise the return of the banner

West Coast legend Nic Naitanui walked into the office of new chief executive Don Pyke and demanded the club bring back the banner.

thewest.com.au

 

[Piggy Smalls]

Richmond vs Melbourne scratchy on Kayo from 7am Perth time.
I’m surprised Melbourne have named Oliver.

 

[Hamann188]

Eagles fans praise the return of the banner

West Coast legend Nic Naitanui walked into the office of new chief executive Don Pyke and demanded the club bring back the banner.

thewest.com.au

I'm not sure "bringing the banner back" should be a focus for them at the moment. Quite sure there are other areas they should be focusing on instead.

 

[serial_thrilla]

I'm not sure "bringing the banner back" should be a focus for them at the moment. Quite sure there are other areas they should be focusing on instead.

Such as that abomination they call their team song.

 

[King Huskii]

Such as that abomination they call their team song.

They have become woke

 

[Lach72]

that’s some serious power from the pick up there from Wardlaw

 

[Hamann188]

They have become woke

 

[pK75]

that’s some serious power from the pick up there from Wardlaw

All I saw was zero defensive effort from the yellow team.

 

[Hamann188]

All I saw was zero defensive effort from the yellow team.

Yeah, that's what I thought we were supposed to be focusing until I read the text.