Number 1 Draft Picks

[kouta70]

You may not get the best player with pick 1, but you would be very unlucky to pick a dud.

How many duds come after the first round?

Higher the pick the better.

 

[doppleganger]

Hasleby was a star before injuries set in.

Pav > Corey > Hasleby > Fraser > The rest.

This is just the top 10 don't forget.

Fraser has been much better value than Hasleby.

Of course it is only the top 10, no point putting in players further out than that because as juniors they were not rated in the same league as guys like Josh.

 

[doppleganger]

You may not get the best player with pick 1, but you would be very unlucky to pick a dud.

How many duds come after the first round?

Higher the pick the better.

That is a better way of looking at it.....what is the average career length and games played of top 5 picks in comparison to the rest?

 

[Rioli magic]

Fraser has been much better value than Hasleby.

Of course it is only the top 10, no point putting in players further out than that because as juniors they were not rated in the same league as guys like Josh.

What? Isn't this about becoming the best player?

Regardless, I think if the no.1 pick turns out to be in the top 3-4 players from their year and you get 200 games out of them it was a good decision. Humans are not foolproof.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

Fraser is better than Haselby.

Irrespective, if you take a player with your first pick and he ends up only being the third or fourth best player in the draft, you've still done well.

Put it another way, with pick 1 you are pretty much guaranteed to get a top ten player from that draft. Theres no such guarantee beyond about pick 5.

For once I 100% agree with you - I think you have summed up this whole debate perfectly.

 

[Belnakor]

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

your a funny guy

 

[Belnakor]

Fraser has been much better value than Hasleby.

you obviously don't see many Freo games. There is no doubt Hasleby has won more games for Freo than Fraser has for collingwood.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

you obviously don't see many Freo games. There is no doubt Hasleby has won more games for Freo than Fraser has for collingwood.

Thats not saying much considering how few games Freo have won over the journey and where they have won them.

Has Hasleby ever played a decent game interstate? I'd love to see the breakdown of his stats (and Brownlow votes), home v away. I reckon it would show him up as a bit of a flat tracker.

 

[blues_future]

His Norm Smith performance in 2008 will go down as one of the greatest, if not THE greatest of all time.

Spot on, and he was playing a really, really difficult position. Centre half forward, midfielder with multiple tags - nothing positions compared to loose man in defence. And clearly better than so many other Nrom Smiths - didn't Black only get 45 possessions as a tagged midfielder in 2003?

Really Hodge played well, but any decent footballer without an opponent would have don okay too.

As to #1 draft picks - clearly you won't always get the best AFL player in the draft but you should get a very good player as most of the list over the last 15 years are. re Selwood, I think most recruiters rated him right up there but were put off by worries over his knee which was expected to be debilitating long term, as recruiters were worried about Judd's shoulders. The draft is a bit of a lottery but if you have picks 1-5 you should get a really good player and if you have several high picks you should get several really good players. And the drafts that can be absolutley judged are those up to about 2001. The others have a fair way to go before we know for sure.

 

[TedDougChris]

From 2000 if you have a number 1 draft pick you have a 1 in 10 chance of winning a flag with that player on your list.

Stupid statement. Let's look at the Saints.

Even though they have had some hit and miss success this decade (getting close a couple of times), there only real challenge came this year. Nearly a decade after getting their very early draft picks. So that means assessing the performance of any of the other #1 draft picks is flawed until a decade is up....

Given that the teams getting the #1 pick are generally in some serious on field difficulties (tanking excepted) one single pick is unlikely to change the performance of the club...

Even having good early picks can be useless if it's a draft weak in positions that a club actually needs. See Bradley, Kepler.... Gumbleton, Scott. And you can always draft a Tambling or a Fiora....

Even taking these things into consideration, rubbish coaching (see Wallace, Rhode and Thomas) can still render #1 picks completely useless, despite the BF obsession with youth and draft picks....

 

[harmesy 37]

Let us not mention that Selwood came top 10 in that Brownlow and got more votes than Gibbs.

So the gap is rapidly closing eh? We have the Rising Star winner, 2 time premiership player, top 10 in the Brownlow, All Australian - with a stack of other awards (you can look it up if you are bored) vs a guy who I am not sure has won anything or done anything of significance in the game but the gap is apparently closing......

This comment hurts, as it unforunately has an element of truth to it.

Hopefully Gibbsy can prove you wrong in the years ahead.

 

[Manic]

Thats not saying much considering how few games Freo have won over the journey and where they have won them.

Has Hasleby ever played a decent game interstate? I'd love to see the breakdown of his stats (and Brownlow votes), home v away. I reckon it would show him up as a bit of a flat tracker.

Since 2004 Hase has only averaged more disposals at home once.


. ..... Home Away
2009- 23.6 24.8
2007- 21.4 23.9
2006- 16.6 19.8
2005- 21.4 19.7
2004- 23.4 25.3

Earlier in his career he averaged more at home, but you would normally expect young players to take a while to adjust to travel.

 

[Alpha Male]

Spot on, and he was playing a really, really difficult position. Centre half forward, midfielder with multiple tags - nothing positions compared to loose man in defence. And clearly better than so many other Nrom Smiths - didn't Black only get 45 possessions as a tagged midfielder in 2003?

Really Hodge played well, but any decent footballer without an opponent would have don okay too.

As to #1 draft picks - clearly you won't always get the best AFL player in the draft but you should get a very good player as most of the list over the last 15 years are. re Selwood, I think most recruiters rated him right up there but were put off by worries over his knee which was expected to be debilitating long term, as recruiters were worried about Judd's shoulders. The draft is a bit of a lottery but if you have picks 1-5 you should get a really good player and if you have several high picks you should get several really good players. And the drafts that can be absolutley judged are those up to about 2001. The others have a fair way to go before we know for sure.

Good work kind Sir!

Luke Hodge won a Norm smith by being nothing more than Jason Cloke with a left boot. If Hawks fans want him to be rated with Judd then they better hope he gets back into the midfield and the forward line because Juddy does it at the coal face.

There were 2 games this year (Essendon at the Dome and Brisbane in Tassie) where Hodge played in his amazing half back superstar role and his side was thumped. If it's Clarkson's choice that's different but Hodge should be in the middle. Hodge could be like James Hird and I rate Hirdy the best I've ever seen. He should just have that option of moving himself into the middle and taking a game by the scruff when it looks bad.

I know the Hawks were struggling down back but that wouldn't be much of an issue of Hodge was winning the ball in the middle.

Judd > Hodge

 

[Neville Bartos]

geeez, Goddard didn't have to try hard to become the best player of his draft. Up to 10 guys from the 2001 draft are better than him (Ablett, Judd, Hodge, Bartel, Dal Santo, Stevie J etc.)

 

[Neville Bartos]

Good work kind Sir!

Luke Hodge won a Norm smith by being nothing more than Jason Cloke with a left boot. If Hawks fans want him to be rated with Judd then they better hope he gets back into the midfield and the forward line because Juddy does it at the coal face.

There were 2 games this year (Essendon at the Dome and Brisbane in Tassie) where Hodge played in his amazing half back superstar role and his side was thumped. If it's Clarkson's choice that's different but Hodge should be in the middle. Hodge could be like James Hird and I rate Hirdy the best I've ever seen. He should just have that option of moving himself into the middle and taking a game by the scruff when it looks bad.

I know the Hawks were struggling down back but that wouldn't be much of an issue of Hodge was winning the ball in the middle.

Judd > Hodge

He went into the midfield and played exceptionally well plenty of times in the last two years, but you probably read bigfooty more than watching real games (hence the ******ed Jason Cloke comparison), so I won't waste my time on you.

 

[Blues_Man]

Burden was probably not the best word to use, I agree, my bad.

However there is a trend that indicates 1 in 10 sides with a number 1 pick deliver a flag currently, based on the draft from 2000 onwards.

People seem to overate the bottoming out strategy, it just doesn't stack up in reality, the saints need to deliver to make this a 1/3 proposition.

I think it proves that you have a much higher chance of picking a decent, elite 200 game player, but premierships are won later in the draft, it would be interesting to see just how well sides like St Kilda and Carlton went in the 2nd and 3rd rounds over the a period of 2-3 years while they where shall we call it bottoming out.

The points I was trying to make

1, You have less than a 50% chance of picking the best player in the country with the number 1 pick, carlton have had 3, missed on Selwood, Kreuzer is still to early to call but he is anything but a standout, and Murphy maybe slightly ahead of his pack, Carlton are currently punching at 33%, I believe that can only change for the worse.

2, From 2000 if you have a number 1 draft pick you have a 1 in 10 chance of winning a flag with that player on your list.

3, Obvious that sides winning flags are mining the draft deep into the later rounds and possibly using rookie selections.

4, The bottoming out strategy is anything but proven.

Your stupidity is pretty obvious ..i find it amazing you offer it out there like a beacon for the world to see .

Most number one draft picks are touted by all and sundry to be the first taken on draft day . even josh fraser was a standout number 1 pick ..but most pies fans would be pretty dissapointed in the outcome ..he has been servicable at best.
Gibbs Murphy and Kreuzer have done nothing to show that they will not be guns of the competition for years to come .

 

[INSANE]

Why do people use the "he played in the backline" comment as argument against Hodge, you don't have to play forward of center to dominate or win a game.

Hodge won the flag in 2008. Gun.

 

[favourites]

Josh Fraser is pretty shit for a number 1.

I agree, but at the same time he was the best ruck in victoria two years ago, so I'd say injuries have played a massive part in that.

 

[JeffDunne]

You'd have to be an A grade simpleton to believe having the #1 pick means anything more than giving you the best chance of selecting the best player from any particular draft.

Of course it guarantees nothing. Being the best junior has never meant being the best in senior football.

Compare AFL drafting results with NFL drafting results (where players are drafted from a system that exposes players on a national stage at a much older age) and you'll see the hit/miss rate is actually pretty good. However there are aspects to the NFL that aren't exactly the same but even taking those into account the success rate in the AFL is actually pretty good.

What draft results do show, and Goddard the classic example, is not all players develop at the same rate.


FWIW, I can't believe anyone is disputing Kreuzer as a standout. If I had my choice of any player from the past 5 years he'd still be my first pick.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Since 2004 Hase has only averaged more disposals at home once.


. ..... Home Away
2009- 23.6 24.8
2007- 21.4 23.9
2006- 16.6 19.8
2005- 21.4 19.7
2004- 23.4 25.3

Earlier in his career he averaged more at home, but you would normally expect young players to take a while to adjust to travel.

Good work there. It seems I stand corrected. In my observation he's never been too damaging away from home however the basic possession stats say nothing of the sort

Out of interest any chance in splitting his Brownlow votes between "home" and "away"?

Cheers

 

[Alpha Male]

He went into the midfield and played exceptionally well plenty of times in the last two years, but you probably read bigfooty more than watching real games (hence the ******ed Jason Cloke comparison), so I won't waste my time on you.

Ease up mate. I guarantee I go to more games than you.

I wasn't saying that Hodge is no good rather he is very good and can be great BUT for Hawks fans to say he is the best in the game after one season across half back as a loose man is rather ridiculous don't ya think?

Jason Cloke was integral to the Pies side in 2002 and if he wasn't suspended for the hit on Edwards I dare say the Pies might have won the flag. He was that good at playing loose and crashing the packs as the third man up. Nick Maxwell, Brendon Goddard, Jason Cloke, Dustin Fletcher... There have been a number of very very good players whose primary role is to play that "third man up" position.

Hodge was shown up as a stay at home forward against the Bombers at the Dome and as a pure defender against the Lions in Tassie. Both of these games were winnable but Hodge wasn't put in the centre. I remember turning to my uncle and laughing about it during the Bombers game because it was so... how would you put it... ******ed. In my opinion he has to play in the midfield to have a shot of being the "best player from his draft".

If he is being played in the backline or as a stay at home forward because of injury that's one thing. If it's Clarkson's idea then it doesn't seem to work that well. Hodge is a midfielder. A GUN midfielder but until we see him as a permanent midfilder again he can be the best from his draft.

Judd > Hodge

 

[Alpha Male]

Why do people use the "he played in the backline" comment as argument against Hodge, you don't have to play forward of center to dominate or win a game.

Hodge won the flag in 2008. Gun.

No problem with him playing in the backline.

I just don't rate "loose man across half back" as a footy position. I understand the running half back but the "loose man" gets alot of cheapies. If Hawks fans want to count all of Hodge's stats then they need to admit Ablett's are just as valid regardless of how many 1-2 "cheap" handballs they cry about.

Hodge is a gun but not the best.

 

[SirJimi05]

Fraser is better than Haselby.

Irrespective, if you take a player with your first pick and he ends up only being the third or fourth best player in the draft, you've still done well.

Put it another way, with pick 1 you are pretty much guaranteed to get a top ten player from that draft. Theres no such guarantee beyond about pick 5.

I have Fraser as the 19th best player in the 1999 draft and that is with putting him ahead of a few guys that were hard to split such as Brad Green & Bruce.

I don't think you can really call Fraser a success.

 

[SirJimi05]

I agree, but at the same time he was the best ruck in victoria two years ago, so I'd say injuries have played a massive part in that.

No he wasn't.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Ease up mate. I guarantee I go to more games than you.

I wasn't saying that Hodge is no good rather he is very good and can be great BUT for Hawks fans to say he is the best in the game after one season across half back as a loose man is rather ridiculous don't ya think?

Jason Cloke was integral to the Pies side in 2002 and if he wasn't suspended for the hit on Edwards I dare say the Pies might have won the flag. He was that good at playing loose and crashing the packs as the third man up. Nick Maxwell, Brendon Goddard, Jason Cloke, Dustin Fletcher... There have been a number of very very good players whose primary role is to play that "third man up" position.

Hodge was shown up as a stay at home forward against the Bombers at the Dome and as a pure defender against the Lions in Tassie. Both of these games were winnable but Hodge wasn't put in the centre. I remember turning to my uncle and laughing about it during the Bombers game because it was so... how would you put it... ******ed. In my opinion he has to play in the midfield to have a shot of being the "best player from his draft".

If he is being played in the backline or as a stay at home forward because of injury that's one thing. If it's Clarkson's idea then it doesn't seem to work that well. Hodge is a midfielder. A GUN midfielder but until we see him as a permanent midfilder again he can be the best from his draft.

Judd > Hodge

One season across half back? How many years have you been watching football?
And you've compared him to Jason Cloke?

Ahh, forget it, I'm with Nev....