Discussion Our 2012 draftees

[Defacto]

Highly doubt it.

silvagni's wafl form was head and shoulders above browns. wasnt even a close contest.

brown was played for development time. silvagni was played because his wafl form demanded selection. people were lining up in droves on talk back over here questioning why ross was playing dawson over silvagni when silvagni's wafl form was very good (better than dawsons when he was dropped back). but hey people will remember the final vs adelaide and walker having a blinder on him. didnt see ross give silvagni the chop out like he does dawson/johnson/any other of his protected species.

 

[SaintLex]

silvagni's wafl form was head and shoulders above browns. wasnt even a close contest.

brown was played for development time. silvagni was played because his wafl form demanded selection. people were lining up in droves on talk back over here questioning why ross was playing dawson over silvagni when silvagni's wafl form was very good (better than dawsons when he was dropped back). but hey people will remember the final vs adelaide and walker having a blinder on him. didnt see ross give silvagni the chop out like he does dawson/johnson/any other of his protected species.

Did Silvagni play on the full forward? Can he take the opposition's gorilla? Not much point otherwise. We have plenty of 191cm defenders who can play on the second/third tall

 

[saintsrfreak]

Did Silvagni play on the full forward? Can he take the opposition's gorilla? Not much point otherwise. We have plenty of 191cm defenders who can play on the second/third tall

To me he looks like a poor man's Simpkin

 

[Defacto]

Did Silvagni play on the full forward? Can he take the opposition's gorilla? Not much point otherwise. We have plenty of 191cm defenders who can play on the second/third tall

he has. buddy circa 2011. ross obviously thought he could do a better job on tex than dawson, even after tex kicked 5?

he can and has done a better job than brown has.

 

[aussierulesrules]

BrianSpeaking got pwned IMO. for instance stating that lee was a pick 6-12 prospect is ludicrous. if he genuinely was, another club would have offered GWS pick 6-12 for him. then he said hvourat was going to put many clubs off due to his combine and performance, but then if we look back he was picked up before pick 20.

the hickey/lee trades will take time before we can properly review them. we cant afford to get any of them wrong.

I can assure you that he knows what is is talking about in a big way and while 6 was possibly stretching it a bit, I believe that 9-12 was right around the mark (not for all clubs, I have no doubt that not all clubs rated him there, as all clubs see things differently, but I'm extremely confident that some, if not many, did). That (11) is where Shifter had him in his mock draft at the time (and he would have had a far better idea of where those in the industry rated him than someone on Bigfooty, or someone like Sam Landsberger- who was very critical of his signing, was likely to. I think that's very fair to say) and I don't believe that he was lying with the other names that he mentioned that rated him worth taking him around that mark. He had mentioned them to me privately as well, prior to writing that there. I'd suggest that he only posted what he did there because he was so pissed off at how much Lee and Hickey were being undersold.

You will notice that he didn't say that it was necessarily clubs that had a pick in the 6-12 range that rated him that high, though, so there is every chance that at least some clubs rated him around that mark (we apparently did and were pumped to get 24 and 43 thrown in with him- SOS did us a serious solid, just as he did when he gave us Saad and Milera for just a paltry 5 pick downgrade last year), but if they didn't have picks that high to offer up for him, then they wouldn't have been able to offer them up for him (at least not without trading someone seriously good off their own list, in order to get a pick that high).

We also had the advantage of our great relationship with SOS, as I said and you also need to remember that that deal was done early on the very first day of trade period. Some clubs may have been hedging their bets a bit (including any that did have a pick in that 6-11 range that rated him that high), or wanted to see what their other options were, before committing a pick that high for him and before they knew it the deal had been done already.

SOS was apparently very happy to deal with us. Again, if you have any doubts, remember how cheaply he gave us Saad and Milera last year, despite Saad alone having kicked 50 goals in the VFL that year (just his 3rd full season of Aussie Rules footy in his life!) and after having just torn it up at the combine, coming 2nd in both the 20m sprint and agility test and first in the repeat sprints test. There may have understandably been some clubs willing to give up a pick like 20 for Saad on his own (that's where Ballantyne was drafted and like Saad, he was "mature aged" and similarly talented, coming off a big year in state footy), yet we got both he AND Milera AND pick 25, for pick 20! SOS has been giving us "mates rates" in a big way and that is something we ought to be extremely thankful for, not sceptical of.

Just because the likes of Knightmare didn't have a clue how highly Lee was rated by the clubs, or others like Sheahan, in the industry, doesn't mean he wasn't, or that he isn't that good. For starters, they focus mainly on the juniors and the U18 Champiionships and not the state leagues and as far as I know they don't do this professionally. And don't forget that Knightmare and co. all had Aiden Corr in the 40's+ (Quigley, who's mock is very highly regarded on here, didn't even have him in his whole mock!) until just a couple of weeks or so before the draft, in spite of the fact that some clubs apparently also rated him in their top 10 and he ended up going to GWS at 14, after Gold Coast also gave him very serious consideration at 13 and there was talk that another club was giving him serious consideration with a top 10 pick.

I would suggest that the only thing that prevented Lee from being rated just as highly by them in their mocks by the end was the fact that he got snapped up by us before anyone had any wind of it. Had GWS not had any prelisting picks left, he would have gone into the draft and eventually word of how highly he was rated by the clubs would have gotten out, just as it eventually did with Corr, and he would have rocketed up the mock draft order of the likes of Knightmare, like Corr did late and everyone on here would have been desperate for their club to get their hands on him.

Like Brian said, who else in this year's draft pool stands 195cm tall, is as fast and athletic as he is and is as good both above his head and below his knees/at ground level, not to mention being ready to go ASAP and being deadly accurate in front of goal and having performed in big games?

What of all that doesn't suggest someone who is worth a pick in the top 10 or so? I dare say that some of the clubs in premiership contention might have been the ones that rated him the highest, as they would have been drooling about the prospect of adding someone like him to their forward lines next year.

You may have noticed that after Brian spoke to Knightmare, Lee quietly slipped higher and higher up KM's "power rankings" over the next few weeks. By a couple of weeks before the draft, he had him higher in his power rankings than he had any of Jacksch, Shaw, Membrey, O'Brien or White, as I mentioned a couple of times in my posts on here at the time. So by then he had him as the highest rated "KPF" (after Daniher, who was committed to Essendon). Prior to Brian speaking to him, he probably had him behind all of them, or at least Jacksch (who went at 12), Shaw and Membrey (who he is a big wrap for).

As for Hrovat, that was just his personal opinion after he apparently showed up with the worst skin folds of anyone at the combine (all 110 of them, or whatever, that went), so he didn't think that showed that he was taking his footy as seriously as he should and that, when combined with how short he is, that would see him slip down out of the top 30. As it was he went at 21, so he got that a bit wrong, but it was just his opinion.

I see you have not mentioned what he said about Boston, though, who he was spot on about. At the time Knightmare had had him as high as 25 (as was mentioned here at the time, as we had pick 25 at the time and also thought Boston may have been a chance to be included in our trade for Hickey) and many on BF thought highly of Boston, but he ended up not getting picked up in the National draft at all, as Brian suggested he possibly wouldn't. Again, he had previously told me privately what he told KM about Boston, when I asked him if he was someone that we might be interested in for the Hickey trade. Like Lee, after that Boston quietly made a big move in KM's mock draft order, ending up at 80 in his order on draft day, after having been at 25 just a month prior.

Knightmare and co do a terrific job for someone who is presumably doing it as a hobby in their spare time, and it's great for everyone on here that doesn't have much else to go on, but just because they do it doesn't mean they are necessarily elite at it, like those at the clubs ought to be and a lot of what they have to go on is just what they see out on the ground, in games, so they don't necessarily get all the background stories (which can tell you where someone is likely to be at in their development cycle), they don't usually get to interview them, to get an accurate idea of their temperament, attitude, mental strength, intelligence (important these days with so many meetings and so on) etc, they don't necessarily get to see their combine results (like the ones that seemingly saw Boston slide) and they don't necessarily get to see anywhere near as much of everyone's games as those clubs that pick them up do.

As for Grundy, he mentioned the concerns he had about him to Knightmare, including his attitude (he actually held back on that compared to what he had said to me previously! and he wasn't even the one who said that "it was well known in recruiting circles that Grundy is a bit of a tool" or words to that effect) and despite most on BF thinking that he would go in the top 3, he slid all the way to 18, which is a hell of a slide for someone who is supposedly (according to BF and other places) top 3 on talent.

If someone is that good he is not likely to slide all the way to 18 unless there are some genuine concerns or issues, that only the clubs or those close to them are likely to be aware of, even if some of those clubs with higher picks don't need someone who plays the position he plays in. If Grundy really was that good and had none of the issues that he and others brought up, do you really think that teams like Melbourne, Port, GWS (5 times!), Geelong (who have they got coming through after Macintosh!) would have all passed on him? I highly doubt it. I mean Longer went at 8 last year and he wasn't rated anywhere near as highly as Grundy and Gorringe went at 11 the year before and he wasn't either.

You can continue to be sceptical of the Lee trade, in particular, if you like, but I'm not sure why you would be. It looks like an absolute bloody ripper to me. Lee, Wright and effectively Saunders (from memory) for pick 12? Yes bloody thanks!

 

[Defacto]

You can continue to be sceptical of the Lee trade, in particular, if you like, but I'm not sure why you would be. It looks like an absolute bloody ripper to me. Lee, Wright and effectively Saunders (from memory) for pick 12? Yes bloody thanks!

great write up and a good read. its getting really quite around here, bugger all to do or read so anything new is a great!!!! to keep the convo going (its just my opinion).....

to be clear i wasnt attacking the trade itself, more so the posts he made on where lee would go. alot of the posts seem to be over exaggerated and require people like yourself to pull it back a peg or two to where its really at. there may have been clubs interested in lee, but i strongly doubt any would have realistically traded or drafted him using a pick in the 6-12 range. 13-25 probably is more accurate.

lets remember the only person who would know who is interested in lee/hickey/any other pre-listed player would have been SOS/Allen/GWS. anything outside of that is unreliable information.

i also doubt how much GWS would do us a "solid". if SOS really is giving us mates rates deals for the soul purpose of helping out his old employer then he needs to be sacked. SOS primary job is to get the best available talent into GWS and to build the list to the profile and strategy the club has decided on. when it came to the pre-listed players it meant getting the best deal possible. i doubt he would take pick 20 on a milera/saad for pick 25, if pick 13 was available for milera/saad. what i do think will help, is the trust between our club and him, which would help the deal get done quicker rather than the delays we saw with the GC trade on hickey.

what i do think is more probable is that the trading strategy SOS had in place was a "best fit" with what we were willing to give up to get lee. likewise with GC when it came to hickey. at the end of trade week, SOS is on record stating his objective was to acquire as many first round picks as possible. this fits with what happened with the pre-listed players and how they were traded. so what i am saying is, if another club with pick "6-12" wanted lee and was willing to part with pick "6-12" for him, then SOS would have jumped at the deal and we wouldnt have secured him.

my only knock on the trade is from the outside, it almost looked liked we had budgeted to use the pick that came back from the lee trade to acquire hickey or potentially caddy as well with the addition of our other first rounder. when gold coast stalled, the ruck rule change came and hickey started to attract interest, it looked like we were forced to use our other first rounder.

the only way we will ever know how good this trade was, is to look back on it in 8 years time. we will need to look at how hickey, lee, hyphen, white, wright go along with the players that we passed on between picks 12-24. will be very interesting and critical that we get it right as we have a habit of wasting our first round selections.

 

[hayes]

Up until last year we had a habit of wasting most of our draft picks, but that's irrelevant because those picks weren't made by the people in charge now. I've seen Knightmare mention our record of poor drafting as well when talking about our picks this year which I don't understand one bit, if we're going to get judged by previous recruiters then why stop there? Why not go back to the 80's or something. But yeah the mock draft guys get it wrong sometimes just like AFL recruiters do. I don't expect them to nail every pick, I just go over there to get a but of info on potential draftees.

As I've said many times I've got full faith in the people running the show now, I was a bit skeptical of pick 13 for a ruckmen that's likely to only be depth for a couple of years but for all we know because of the pick upgrade it could be the best trade we've ever made.

 

[tbarker]

Up until last year we had a habit of wasting most of our draft picks, but that's irrelevant because those picks weren't made by the people in charge now. I've seen Knightmare mention our record of poor drafting as well when talking about our picks this year which I don't understand one bit, if we're going to get judged by previous recruiters then why stop there? Why not go back to the 80's or something. But yeah the mock draft guys get it wrong sometimes just like AFL recruiters do. I don't expect them to nail every pick, I just go over there to get a but of info on potential draftees.

As I've said many times I've got full faith in the people running the show now, I was a bit skeptical of pick 13 for a ruckmen that's likely to only be depth for a couple of years but for all we know because of the pick upgrade it could be the best trade we've ever made.

YEs - good to keep the chat going.

I watched the Vic Country v SA game over the weekend. Grundy looked the goods to me so it must be attitude. I must say that there were some beautiful movers in the SA team. Probably too many nice types and not enough grunt. Toumpas was wow and look out for Aish [spelling] next year. The Vic country team looked tougher for mind and I can see why so many went in the draft. I liked Wright more than before ( I have been a critic of his early selection) but his kicking still concerns me.

The bloke that I still think we missed on was Clurey. Looks like a cornerstone player to me. Time will tell of course but here's hoping he hates SA and returns to play for the Saints in 2 years time.

The other player was Colquon. He went up in my ratings and I am surprised that no club picked him up given he was that good and yet has only played limited AFL.

I am on board for early selections for Lee and Hickey for the simple reason that both have been tested at either AFL or senior level. That is the only true acid test. IMO it is worth paying overs for a bloke the you know can play at the adult level.

Of all the draft picks - TDL is the most baffling. The club talks about pick 37 for an emergency in a Grand Final as being a steal. I am not convinced. My Swans mates reckon he missed out because he was too soft but skilled enough to warrant being an emergency who might come on and kick 5. They say he was a frustrating player becuase he has all the skill but not the ticker. Hopefully he realises and gets harder at it. Ray did so he can too.

 

[hayes]

YEs - good to keep the chat going.

I watched the Vic Country v SA game over the weekend. Grundy looked the goods to me so it must be attitude. I must say that there were some beautiful movers in the SA team. Probably too many nice types and not enough grunt. Toumpas was wow and look out for Aish [spelling] next year. The Vic country team looked tougher for mind and I can see why so many went in the draft. I liked Wright more than before ( I have been a critic of his early selection) but his kicking still concerns me.

The bloke that I still think we missed on was Clurey. Looks like a cornerstone player to me. Time will tell of course but here's hoping he hates SA and returns to play for the Saints in 2 years time.

The other player was Colquon. He went up in my ratings and I am surprised that no club picked him up given he was that good and yet has only played limited AFL.

I am on board for early selections for Lee and Hickey for the simple reason that both have been tested at either AFL or senior level. That is the only true acid test. IMO it is worth paying overs for a bloke the you know can play at the adult level.

Of all the draft picks - TDL is the most baffling. The club talks about pick 37 for an emergency in a Grand Final as being a steal. I am not convinced. My Swans mates reckon he missed out because he was too soft but skilled enough to warrant being an emergency who might come on and kick 5. They say he was a frustrating player becuase he has all the skill but not the ticker. Hopefully he realises and gets harder at it. Ray did so he can too.

We share the same concerns my friend. I've got faith that Wright will fix his kicking, but it's not going to be easy. He knows it's a problem though and is apparently a hard worker so fingers crossed because even at pick 24 that could end up being a steal if he combines good kicking with that speed. I really doubt Pelchen and co would draft someone that has major kicking issues, and his long kicking looks good which will be handy when you have a forward line of Stanley, Lee, White, Saad, Milera etc. As for Clurey, if he can show some shutdown ability to go with his kicking that could be something we could really regret. For whatever reason though Watters and the rest didn't rate him, we'll just have to wait and see if they were right.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Very few draftee's are a sure thing.
There is a chance some of them will be guns.
There is a chance some of them will be gop's
There is a chance that some will play a couple of games and get dropped.
There is a chance that some will never play a game of AFL footy.

I would think that the chance that at least one of Lee, Wright and Sauders won't be OK would be less than the chance of any individual player not working out. Especially if you consider that ANY player can have their career ruined by an unexpected injury.
We also have three players who could become guns. Maybe not as sure a bet as Grundy, but by having three its like having a bet each way rather than just backing the winner.

Hickey we didn't get the same deal BUT as a young ruckman with 12 games he has done some pretty reasonable stuff.
Its very hard to think that he won't develop to a point beyond ( for example ) Brent Renouf. If he ends up no better than Renouf I'd consider that a worst case scenario.

 

[Mister E]

Wright reminds me a lot of North Melbourne's Shaun Atley ,with all the talk of his good speed off the half back flank but inconsistent kicking

Atley's kicking was the main reason he was supposedly not pick in the first dozen and Emma Quayle was very surprised at the time.....he has since improved his kicking and is now looking like a real weapon

 

[tbarker]

Wright reminds me a lot of North Melbourne's Shaun Atley ,with all the talk of his good speed off the half back flank but inconsistent kicking

Atley's kicking was the main reason he was supposedly not pick in the first dozen and Emma Quayle was very surprised at the time.....he has since improved his kicking and is now looking like a real weapon

Wow - impressive running. If Wright can become that then I will be happy. Fingers crossed that he works out his kicking. My North mates told me that Atley tried to hard with his kicking and now he is more relaxed and slower all round. Perhaps Wright will do the same.

 

[hayes]

I like the Atley comparison, and yeah he's an absolute jet. He was playing regular senior footy at 19 years old last year, I think we might need to raise the expectations of our second year players. No reason why they can't be regulars this year.

 

[hayes]

Asked a North fan on the draft board if Atley's kicking was the reason he slid so far, and this was the response I got:

Yup, pretty sure that's why he slid so far. His kicking this year though, has been sublime, one of the best at the club IMO. I remember an article where Atley mentioned his kicking was his biggest flaw and he planned to work on that, and now it's fine. If Wright has kicking issues, it can definitely be worked on, just look at Lindsay Thomas' set shots this year vs last year.

Bodes well for Wright.

Oh and I PM'd Knightmare about a link to a couple of SA games. One against Metro and the other against NT. Only Murdoch in those games but if anyone's interested in them PM me.