Our Barometers???

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Many thanks to Final Siren for this info. It's from a thread of his from the main board. Found it interesting.

I've been poking around looking for interesting correlations between team performance and who's playing, to identify players who, for whatever reason, seem to be around when the team plays well, and absent when it doesn't. Namely, barometers.

It might be that they just happen to be on the park at the right times, but maybe they add something to the side beyond their direct stats: that they make their teammates play better.

Methodology, which you should feel totally free to skip: I scored each game by its final margin compared to the betting line. So a team that beat the line is considered to have played well, regardless of whether it won or lost. I awarded each player a percentage of that margin-line amount based on their Time On Ground %.

Example: If a team won by 20 points, beating expectations of a betting line at -9.5, then that's a positive result and the margin-line is 10.5. A player who was on the ground for 100% of the game is awarded those 10.5 points. A player who was on for 50% of it earns 5.25 points.

If, instead, the team won by 2 points and the betting line was -40.5 -- that, is they were tipped to deliver a thrashing, but instead only fell over the line -- that's a negative result and the margin-line is -38.5. Players who were on the ground for that match would suffer accordingly.

Players' scores were then totalled up for the season. The average score is 0, meaning there was no difference between the team's performance with this player in the side compared to out of it. Players who didn't miss a match all season have scores close to 0 for this reason, and it's why this is a list of barometers, not just good players.

(Note: I also normalized the margin-line figure to zero, so a player who was on the park for 100% of every game would score the same as a player who was on the park for 50% of every game -- without this, players in teams that consistently disappointed in 2012 would be penalized simply for being on the park more. I didn't think that was quite fair, although you could argue otherwise. In any case, it was a fairly small effect.)

The forum won't let me paste enormous slabs of text, so here is West Coast to start with. I'll post a couple more teams after this, and if people want more and I am not banned for spamming, I will add them.

tl;dr:When your team's Ins included guys from the top of the list, your team played better. When it included guys from the bottom of the list, you played badly.

Adelaide

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Smith, Brodie | 87.6 | 22
\2. | Henderson, Ricky | 75.2 | 12
\3. | Lynch, Tom | 60.5 | 6
\4. | Porplyzia, Jason | 51.8 | 22
\5. | Johncock, Graham | 51.8 | 19
\6. | Jenkins, Josh | 50.8 | 11
\7. | Otten, Andy | 39.1 | 6
\8. | Wright, Matthew | 27.9 | 22
\9. | Lyons, Jarryd | 26.4 | 3
\10. | Callinan, Ian | 25.6 | 23
\11. | McIntyre, Tim | 23.6 | 1
\12. | Jacobs, Sam | 22.8 | 24
\13. | Knights, Chris | 19.9 | 5
\14. | Tippett, Kurt | 12.0 | 21
\15. | Jaensch, Matthew | 11.9 | 10
\16. | MacKay, David | 10.9 | 23
\17. | Brown, Luke | 8.2 | 3
\18. | Rutten, Ben | 5.6 | 25
\19. | Dangerfield, Patrick | 5.3 | 25
\20. | Talia, Daniel | 5.0 | 23
\21. | Johnston, Lewis | 2.5 | 1
\22. | Reilly, Brent | 1.8 | 25
\23. | Symes, Brad | 1.2 | 2
\24. | Thompson, Scott | 0.9 | 25
\25. | Thompson, Luke | -1.5 | 3
\26. | Riley, Aidan | -2.9 | 5
\27. | Van Berlo, Nathan | -3.1 | 25
\28. | Kerridge, Sam | -10.3 | 1
\29. | Petrenko, Jared | -11.3 | 23
\30. | Tambling, Richard | -14.4 | 1
\31. | Sloane, Rory | -19.9 | 24
\32. | Douglas, Richard | -22.7 | 19
\33. | Doughty, Michael | -32.6 | 24
\34. | Vince, Bernie | -70.5 | 20
\35. | McKernan, Shaun | -89.0 | 6
\36. | Martin, Brodie | -95.3 | 7
\37. | Shaw, Sam | -107.9 | 14
\38. | Walker, Taylor | -142.7 | 19

 

[Hank93]

Well Taylor Walker shouldn't play another game next season

 

[Glenno23]

I knew Tex was shit all along!

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Hendo mania going to sweep the AFL in 2013

 

[ManInTheArena]

Those stats are from Neil Craig, surely.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I knew Tex was shit all along!

Maybe Neil was right?

 

[mcday]

Should have given Brodie the golden jacket

 

[hendo8888]

Did we get destroyed when Smith didn't play?
How is his number so big when he only missed 3 games?

 

[mcday]

Did we get destroyed when Smith didn't play?
How is his number so big when he only missed 3 games?

He missed the game against St Kilda, where we won by 4, the game against North, where we lost by 32, and the Brisbane game where we lost by 10. Realistically we would have been heavy favourites against all of them.

 

[ringo200]

Over 2010 and 2011 we have won 61% of the games that Phil Davis has played in, including games against top 4 sides Geelong and St. Kilda last year and Hawthorn this year.....


We've won 7% of the games he hasn't played in.

Obviously a lot of that is timing though, he's not that good..... yet.

From games we played in 2010 and 2011. From memory almost all of the really good unexpected wins against top quality sides were with Phil and almost all of the really bad unexpected losses were without him too.

I don't think there is a whole lot if anything to this stat tbh.

 

[Apsaalooke]

All very well but a classic case of association not cause.

One other correlation is when our average players are high on the best player list, we often do badly. If Symes was BOG it meant the opposition let him run free as the release guy coz they knew he'd butcher the ball and we'll have a bad game. Worse, when Matt Connell or Richard Douglas win the B&F you've generally had a bad year.

 

[*PAF]

For some reason the reply button doesn't work so I'll have to do it manually.
If Symes was BOG the team probably had a bad game?
Will you stop mentioning the war?

 

[Geoffa32]

I have often thought that when Hendo is playing we look a better side.

 

[*PAF]

Now we really know what he was reading.

 

[Lawrst]

What a load of Crap

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

surely there should be a min of at least 15 games played to get a credible baseline

 

[Draft Bored]

What a load of Crap

Disagree. I think there are groups of players that are more then just team mates. More like best mates.

Playing with your best mates would be more inspiring, the same way that having a home crowd inspires players.

So perhaps when they are all playing the same game together it does make a difference.

However the Tex stat makes no sense. He is one inspirational mofo.

 

[OrdinaryJoel]

This will be the only list, were Richard Douglas, Richard Tambling and other spuds on our team are in front of Tex...

 

[Sanders]

Disagree. I think there are groups of players that are more then just team mates. More like best mates.

Playing with your best mates would be more inspiring, the same way that having a home crowd inspires players.

So perhaps when they are all playing the same game together it does make a difference.

However the Tex stat makes no sense. He is one inspirational mofo.

Just think how good Tyson & McLeod would have been if they were BFF's?

 

[CrowAboutIt]

Does anyone else believe Brodie will have a better year than Isaac Smith? Trying to work out how much I can convince my mate to put on it and how to determine who has a better year? Easy money if u ask me lol

 

[CrowAboutIt]

BTW i think a under-rated player that sets us up is Porps.. His finals series was huge and when he has a good game a lot of the time he keeps us in it

 

[FR0GGY]

Now we really know what he was reading.

Whose the boy behind Neil?