Barometers in 2012, by the numbers

[Final Siren]

Thing is though, say we have the game won by half time, we'll take players like Kerr of the ground because we don't need to risk injuries, while he'll play all game when we're needing. Having said that, if you ruled out all with less than 5 games on the list, it would be a pretty good indicator.

Kerr seems to get 80-89% TOG when he plays out a game, which he did most games in 2012. In 4 games he had 69-79% TOG, in one he had 59% (round 1 vs Bulldogs), and another 36% (round 18 vs Brisbane). I don't see any real evidence in the stats for him pulling a blinder and then getting a rest... he had 7 and 4 disposals in the 59% and 36% games, for example.

So although I agree that teams will sometimes bench a champion late in a game once it's in the bag, I think this is a very small effect overall... you're talking about maybe 10% TOG at most, which is barely going to register overall. Also, this analysis isn't likely to tell you much about champion players that you don't already know anyway. It was much-reported in 2012 how the Suns played better without Ablett, for example: this is a curious stat, but I don't think anyone takes it as proof that Ablett is a liability.

 

[Final Siren]

The problem is a good midfielder could be on the ground for 80% of the game and the team is performing better than the line and then be off for 20% of the game and the opposition piles on goals. He gets negative points because the guys replacing him are duds.

Yep, I have no data for who was on the bench when. It would be interesting to see. It might be completely meaningless, because players rotate on and off so quickly these days that a guy can kick beautifully out of the midfield and be on the bench by the time his forward kicks the goal.

On the other hand, I remember the last two minutes of a certain game involving the Tigers in Cairns this year, with Cotchin on the bench... pretty sure that made a difference.

 

[Final Siren]

Interesting stuff

Would love you to do Adelaide's. Hopefully Kurt isn't at the top.

He's not! Although he is a net positive.

Adelaide

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Smith, Brodie | 87.6 | 22
\2. | Henderson, Ricky | 75.2 | 12
\3. | Lynch, Tom | 60.5 | 6
\4. | Porplyzia, Jason | 51.8 | 22
\5. | Johncock, Graham | 51.8 | 19
\6. | Jenkins, Josh | 50.8 | 11
\7. | Otten, Andy | 39.1 | 6
\8. | Wright, Matthew | 27.9 | 22
\9. | Lyons, Jarryd | 26.4 | 3
\10. | Callinan, Ian | 25.6 | 23
\11. | McIntyre, Tim | 23.6 | 1
\12. | Jacobs, Sam | 22.8 | 24
\13. | Knights, Chris | 19.9 | 5
\14. | Tippett, Kurt | 12.0 | 21
\15. | Jaensch, Matthew | 11.9 | 10
\16. | MacKay, David | 10.9 | 23
\17. | Brown, Luke | 8.2 | 3
\18. | Rutten, Ben | 5.6 | 25
\19. | Dangerfield, Patrick | 5.3 | 25
\20. | Talia, Daniel | 5.0 | 23
\21. | Johnston, Lewis | 2.5 | 1
\22. | Reilly, Brent | 1.8 | 25
\23. | Symes, Brad | 1.2 | 2
\24. | Thompson, Scott | 0.9 | 25
\25. | Thompson, Luke | -1.5 | 3
\26. | Riley, Aidan | -2.9 | 5
\27. | Van Berlo, Nathan | -3.1 | 25
\28. | Kerridge, Sam | -10.3 | 1
\29. | Petrenko, Jared | -11.3 | 23
\30. | Tambling, Richard | -14.4 | 1
\31. | Sloane, Rory | -19.9 | 24
\32. | Douglas, Richard | -22.7 | 19
\33. | Doughty, Michael | -32.6 | 24
\34. | Vince, Bernie | -70.5 | 20
\35. | McKernan, Shaun | -89.0 | 6
\36. | Martin, Brodie | -95.3 | 7
\37. | Shaw, Sam | -107.9 | 14
\38. | Walker, Taylor | -142.7 | 19

 

[Final Siren]

The Doggies if you wouldn't mind Final Siren. Thanks in advance.

Wil Minson misses one game all year and it's the one where the Dogs get annihilated by Brisbane. Lake is out for Round 4, when they beat Melbourne, and Round 22, when they get much closer to the Cats than expected.

Western Bulldogs

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Austin, Mark | 80.8 | 11
\2. | Sherman, Justin | 75.2 | 10
\3. | Djerrkura, Nathan | 62.9 | 13
\4. | Minson, Will | 54.9 | 21
\5. | Grant, Jarrad | 51.9 | 13
\6. | Veszpremi, Patrick | 45.0 | 8
\7. | Giansiracusa, Daniel | 34.4 | 17
\8. | Skinner, Zephaniah | 31.1 | 7
\9. | Talia, Michael | 30.0 | 4
\10. | Griffen, Ryan | 28.3 | 20
\11. | Wallis, Mitchell | 23.0 | 19
\12. | Jong, Lin | 12.3 | 4
\13. | Murphy, Robert | 9.2 | 21
\14. | Higgins, Shaun | 6.2 | 19
\15. | Jones, Liam | 3.3 | 12
\16. | Boyd, Matthew | 2.8 | 22
\17. | Pearce, Daniel | 2.0 | 5
\18. | Picken, Liam | 0.6 | 22
\19. | Hargrave, Ryan | 0.4 | 12
\20. | Tutt, Jason | -3.9 | 5
\21. | Cross, Daniel | -4.5 | 17
\22. | Gilbee, Lindsay | -9.3 | 4
\23. | Hooper, Andrew | -10.8 | 1
\24. | Roughead, Jordan | -12.6 | 18
\25. | Addison, Dylan | -15.7 | 17
\26. | Johannisen, Jason | -17.2 | 3
\27. | Liberatore, Thomas | -17.6 | 17
\28. | Williams, Tom | -18.4 | 3
\29. | Dahlhaus, Luke | -19.2 | 17
\30. | Roberts, Fletcher | -20.6 | 2
\31. | Dickson, Tory | -33.5 | 17
\32. | Cooney, Adam | -35.5 | 14
\33. | Campbell, Tom | -36.2 | 7
\34. | Cordy, Ayce | -37.8 | 12
\35. | Markovic, Lukas | -42.3 | 9
\36. | Howard, Christian | -42.3 | 11
\37. | Smith, Clay | -53.4 | 16
\38. | Wood, Easton | -59.7 | 14
\39. | Lake, Brian | -63.9 | 20

 

[John Hart Jnr]

He's not! Although he is a net positive.

Adelaide

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Smith, Brodie | 87.6 | 22
\2. | Henderson, Ricky | 75.2 | 12
\3. | Lynch, Tom | 60.5 | 6
\4. | Porplyzia, Jason | 51.8 | 22
\5. | Johncock, Graham | 51.8 | 19
\6. | Jenkins, Josh | 50.8 | 11
\7. | Otten, Andy | 39.1 | 6
\8. | Wright, Matthew | 27.9 | 22
\9. | Lyons, Jarryd | 26.4 | 3
\10. | Callinan, Ian | 25.6 | 23
\11. | McIntyre, Tim | 23.6 | 1
\12. | Jacobs, Sam | 22.8 | 24
\13. | Knights, Chris | 19.9 | 5
\14. | Tippett, Kurt | 12.0 | 21
\15. | Jaensch, Matthew | 11.9 | 10
\16. | MacKay, David | 10.9 | 23
\17. | Brown, Luke | 8.2 | 3
\18. | Rutten, Ben | 5.6 | 25
\19. | Dangerfield, Patrick | 5.3 | 25
\20. | Talia, Daniel | 5.0 | 23
\21. | Johnston, Lewis | 2.5 | 1
\22. | Reilly, Brent | 1.8 | 25
\23. | Symes, Brad | 1.2 | 2
\24. | Thompson, Scott | 0.9 | 25
\25. | Thompson, Luke | -1.5 | 3
\26. | Riley, Aidan | -2.9 | 5
\27. | Van Berlo, Nathan | -3.1 | 25
\28. | Kerridge, Sam | -10.3 | 1
\29. | Petrenko, Jared | -11.3 | 23
\30. | Tambling, Richard | -14.4 | 1
\31. | Sloane, Rory | -19.9 | 24
\32. | Douglas, Richard | -22.7 | 19
\33. | Doughty, Michael | -32.6 | 24
\34. | Vince, Bernie | -70.5 | 20
\35. | McKernan, Shaun | -89.0 | 6
\36. | Martin, Brodie | -95.3 | 7
\37. | Shaw, Sam | -107.9 | 14
\38. | Walker, Taylor | -142.7 | 19

Walker -142.7???? I find that amazing.

 

[Final Siren]

Walker -142.7???? I find that amazing.

Walker played 19 games. The 5 he missed were:

• Round 8: Adelaide destroy Carlton 124-55 -- the Crow's biggest positive upset for the year, according to margin-line
• Round 9: Adelaide lose to Collingwood 49-75 -- a good one to miss
• Round 15: Adelaide smash Port 116-58
• Round 16: Adelaide obliterate GWS 178-59
• Round 17: Adelaide register an honourable loss to Geelong 75-102

So, yeah, the matches Walker missed tended to be ones in which Adelaide played unexpectedly well.

 

[le dominateur]

Wil Minson misses one game all year and it's the one where the Dogs get annihilated by Brisbane. Lake is out for Round 4, when they beat Melbourne, and Round 22, when they get much closer to the Cats than expected.

Western Bulldogs

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Austin, Mark | 80.8 | 11
\2. | Sherman, Justin | 75.2 | 10
\3. | Djerrkura, Nathan | 62.9 | 13
\4. | Minson, Will | 54.9 | 21
\5. | Grant, Jarrad | 51.9 | 13
\6. | Veszpremi, Patrick | 45.0 | 8
\7. | Giansiracusa, Daniel | 34.4 | 17
\8. | Skinner, Zephaniah | 31.1 | 7
\9. | Talia, Michael | 30.0 | 4
\10. | Griffen, Ryan | 28.3 | 20
\11. | Wallis, Mitchell | 23.0 | 19
\12. | Jong, Lin | 12.3 | 4
\13. | Murphy, Robert | 9.2 | 21
\14. | Higgins, Shaun | 6.2 | 19
\15. | Jones, Liam | 3.3 | 12
\16. | Boyd, Matthew | 2.8 | 22
\17. | Pearce, Daniel | 2.0 | 5
\18. | Picken, Liam | 0.6 | 22
\19. | Hargrave, Ryan | 0.4 | 12
\20. | Tutt, Jason | -3.9 | 5
\21. | Cross, Daniel | -4.5 | 17
\22. | Gilbee, Lindsay | -9.3 | 4
\23. | Hooper, Andrew | -10.8 | 1
\24. | Roughead, Jordan | -12.6 | 18
\25. | Addison, Dylan | -15.7 | 17
\26. | Johannisen, Jason | -17.2 | 3
\27. | Liberatore, Thomas | -17.6 | 17
\28. | Williams, Tom | -18.4 | 3
\29. | Dahlhaus, Luke | -19.2 | 17
\30. | Roberts, Fletcher | -20.6 | 2
\31. | Dickson, Tory | -33.5 | 17
\32. | Cooney, Adam | -35.5 | 14
\33. | Campbell, Tom | -36.2 | 7
\34. | Cordy, Ayce | -37.8 | 12
\35. | Markovic, Lukas | -42.3 | 9
\36. | Howard, Christian | -42.3 | 11
\37. | Smith, Clay | -53.4 | 16
\38. | Wood, Easton | -59.7 | 14
\39. | Lake, Brian | -63.9 | 20

Looks like another recruiting blunder by Hawthorn.

 

[Final Siren]

Top work, obviously a lot of work went into this. I'm guessing you're the same guy that made a similar thread about Foley and Grimes' influence using a similar statistical analysis about a month or two ago?

Yes! I started it because watching Jayden Post this year, I noticed not only did he play poorly, but he seemed to make everyone around him play poorly, too. My theory was his teammmates didn't trust him to retain possession, so instead of breaking and spreading, they would hang back, waiting for him to turn it over.

Anyway, it was just a thought, but when the club delisted Post at the end of the year and there was much wailing and protesting on the Tiger board, I decided to see if the stats backed me up. And as a side-effect of the analysis, out popped players like Foley and Grimes as correlating with good team performances.

I've had a couple of different bashes at it since then, trying to refine my methodology. The latest Richmond one looks like this:

Richmond

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Foley, Nathan | 110.6 | 10
\2. | King, Jake | 91.9 | 12
\3. | Martin, Dustin | 66.9 | 20
\4. | Vickery, Tyrone | 65.3 | 9
\5. | Grimes, Dylan | 62.6 | 9
\6. | White, Matthew | 50.9 | 7
\7. | Morris, Steven | 42.7 | 21
\8. | Maric, Ivan | 40.3 | 21
\9. | Conca, Reece | 38.3 | 18
\10. | Jackson, Daniel | 27.2 | 19
\11. | Helbig, Bradley | 25.0 | 5
\12. | Griffiths, Benjamin | 20.3 | 9
\13. | Miller, Brad | 16.7 | 10
\14. | Tuck, Shane | 6.6 | 22
\15. | Newman, Chris | 4.2 | 22
\16. | Rance, Alex | 1.7 | 22
\17. | Nahas, Robin | 1.0 | 22
\18. | Riewoldt, Jack | 0.7 | 22
\19. | Cotchin, Trent | 0.4 | 22
\20. | Grigg, Shaun | -1.4 | 22
\21. | Houli, Bachar | -1.6 | 22
\22. | Deledio, Brett | -3.8 | 22
\23. | Elton, Todd | -4.8 | 1
\24. | Webberley, Jeromey | -15.4 | 1
\25. | Astbury, David | -21.7 | 2
\26. | Batchelor, Jake | -34.7 | 14
\27. | Edwards, Shane | -39.2 | 20
\28. | Graham, Angus | -40.8 | 1
\29. | Connors, Daniel | -41.1 | 2
\30. | McGuane, Luke | -44.7 | 9
\31. | Post, Jayden | -44.9 | 8
\32. | Ellis, Brandon | -47.9 | 21
\33. | Derickx, Tom | -49.5 | 2
\34. | Moore, Kelvin | -60.4 | 3
\35. | Dea, Matthew | -60.8 | 14
\36. | O'Hanlon, Brett | -78.5 | 8
\37. | Maric, Addam | -80.7 | 10

I wasn't a fan of O'Hanlon and A. Maric this year, either.

Edit: I also think Jackson contributes more to the team than he's usually given credit for.

 

[Final Siren]

I'd like to know the stats from when Lachie Hansen, Nathan Grima & Sam Gibson- played/didn't play in 2012.

I know once gibbo came in, North lost max two more games for the H & A season.

Yep, those three are all quite strongly positive.

North Melbourne

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | McMahon, Scott | 162.3 | 17
\2. | Hansen, Lachlan | 118.0 | 12
\3. | Anthony, Liam | 78.1 | 19
\4. | Tarrant, Robbie | 75.8 | 16
\5. | Adams, Leigh | 72.3 | 18
\6. | Wells, Daniel | 63.5 | 20
\7. | Goldstein, Todd | 60.3 | 21
\8. | Wright, Samuel | 58.5 | 21
\9. | Grima, Nathan | 49.6 | 13
\10. | Harper, Kieran | 40.8 | 23
\11. | Campbell, Matt | 35.2 | 15
\12. | Gibson, Sam | 30.2 | 13
\13. | McIntosh, Hamish | 15.6 | 7
\14. | Hine, Taylor | 14.2 | 8
\15. | Thomas, Lindsay | 13.3 | 19
\16. | Bastinac, Ryan | 8.1 | 23
\17. | Atley, Shaun | 4.0 | 23
\18. | Firrito, Michael | -0.9 | 23
\19. | Harvey, Brent | -3.5 | 23
\20. | Swallow, Andrew | -5.2 | 23
\21. | Pedersen, Cameron | -6.3 | 2
\22. | McKenzie, Bradley | -7.1 | 2
\23. | Petrie, Drew | -8.8 | 23
\24. | Warren, Ben | -9.4 | 1
\25. | MacMillan, Jamie | -27.4 | 23
\26. | Jacobs, Ben | -36.5 | 14
\27. | Mullett, Aaron | -43.3 | 6
\28. | Edwards, Aaron | -53.9 | 9
\29. | Delaney, Cameron | -74.5 | 5
\30. | Ziebell, Jack | -78.2 | 17
\31. | Garlett, Cruize | -79.7 | 7
\32. | Thompson, Scott | -80.4 | 21
\33. | Black, Aaron | -87.6 | 3
\34. | Greenwood, Levi | -108.5 | 5
\35. | Delaney, Luke | -126.0 | 13
\36. | Cunnington, Ben | -129.9 | 20

 

[Final Siren]

Very interested to see how the Swans look with this.

Sydney

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Reid, Sam | 60.1 | 22
\2. | Pyke, Mike | 59.1 | 18
\3. | Dennis-Lane, Trent | 37.1 | 8
\4. | Bolton, Jude | 30.5 | 22
\5. | Morton, Mitch | 27.5 | 5
\6. | Shaw, Rhyce | 26.3 | 24
\7. | O'Keefe, Ryan | 25.3 | 24
\8. | Hannebery, Daniel | 10.8 | 25
\9. | Smith, Nick | 3.9 | 22
\10. | Everitt, Andrejs | 1.8 | 12
\11. | Jetta, Lewis | 1.3 | 25
\12. | Richards, Ted | 0.9 | 25
\13. | Armstrong, Tony | -0.9 | 8
\14. | McVeigh, Jarrad | -2.8 | 25
\15. | Kennedy, Josh P. | -3.2 | 25
\16. | Jack, Kieren | -3.9 | 25
\17. | Walsh, Tommy | -4.2 | 3
\18. | Mattner, Martin | -4.6 | 24
\19. | Johnson, Alex | -4.7 | 25
\20. | Mumford, Shane | -7.6 | 17
\21. | Cunningham, Harry | -7.8 | 1
\22. | White, Jesse | -9.0 | 3
\23. | McGlynn, Ben | -11.1 | 22
\24. | Roberts-Thomson, Lewis | -14.3 | 22
\25. | Seaby, Mark | -15.4 | 5
\26. | Parker, Luke | -21.3 | 19
\27. | Grundy, Heath | -21.4 | 24
\28. | Bird, Craig | -30.3 | 25
\29. | Rohan, Gary | -34.6 | 4
\30. | Goodes, Adam | -36.5 | 19
\31. | Malceski, Nick | -51.8 | 22

 

[AlibiMonday]

Fremantle

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Walters, Michael | 119.7 | 10
\2. | Fyfe, Nathan | 113.1 | 11
\3. | McPhee, Adam | 102.9 | 21
\4. | Spurr, Lee | 83.6 | 13
\5. | Bradley, Kepler | 64.9 | 12
\6. | Ballantyne, Hayden | 54.1 | 21
\7. | Hill, Stephen | 27.8 | 22
\8. | Mayne, Christopher | 21.6 | 23
\9. | Ibbotson, Garrick | 18.7 | 23
\10. | Mundy, David | 15.1 | 22
\11. | Pearce, Clancee | 13.5 | 24
\12. | Dawson, Zac | 7.1 | 18
\13. | Griffin, Jonathon | 5.0 | 13
\14. | Barlow, Michael | 3.6 | 24
\15. | Crowley, Ryan | 1.3 | 24
\16. | Sheridan, Thomas | 0.8 | 1
\17. | Suban, Nicholas | 0.7 | 14
\18. | Crozier, Hayden | -0.6 | 3
\19. | Grover, Antoni | -1.3 | 1
\20. | Sutcliffe, Cameron | -1.9 | 4
\21. | Johnson, Michael | -3.5 | 24
\22. | Duffield, Paul | -4.2 | 21
\23. | Pitt, Jayden | -4.2 | 2
\24. | De Boer, Matthew | -6.3 | 23
\25. | Mzungu, Tendai | -8.5 | 24
\26. | McPharlin, Luke | -8.7 | 21
\27. | Anthony, John | -13.1 | 4
\28. | Lower, Nick | -15.8 | 3
\29. | Mellington, Josh | -16.8 | 3
\30. | Sandilands, Aaron | -22.3 | 14
\31. | Van Berlo, Jay | -30.5 | 2
\32. | Crichton, Jesse | -32.5 | 4
\33. | Silvagni, Alex | -35.4 | 5
\34. | Roberton, Dylan | -52.3 | 10
\35. | Pavlich, Matthew | -56.0 | 23
\36. | Neale, Lachie | -100.0 | 11
\37. | Clarke, Zachary | -109.0 | 15
\38. | Broughton, Greg | -129.1 | 15

No wonder Lyon got rid of Broughton.

 

[John Hart Jnr]

Walker played 19 games. The 5 he missed were:

• Round 8: Adelaide destroy Carlton 124-55 -- the Crow's biggest positive upset for the year, according to margin-line
• Round 9: Adelaide lose to Collingwood 49-75 -- a good one to miss
• Round 15: Adelaide smash Port 116-58
• Round 16: Adelaide obliterate GWS 178-59
• Round 17: Adelaide register an honourable loss to Geelong 75-102

So, yeah, the matches Walker missed tended to be ones in which Adelaide played unexpectedly well.

I'm not arguing with you. I just find it surprising.

 

[Final Siren]

I'm not arguing with you. I just find it surprising.

Yes! I just looked it up because I was curious, too.

Whether it means anything is open for debate, of course. I'm not familiar with Adelaide's list, so I have no idea whether Walker was just unlucky to miss a few good days, or if there might be a real connection between his absence and better team play. I'm interested to hear what supporters think about some of these.

 

[PumpyChowdown]

Would love to see Carltons and Gold Coasts figures if you get a chance. Very interesting stuff.

 

[AlibiMonday]

Sydney

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Reid, Sam | 60.1 | 22
\2. | Pyke, Mike | 59.1 | 18
\3. | Dennis-Lane, Trent | 37.1 | 8
\4. | Bolton, Jude | 30.5 | 22
\5. | Morton, Mitch | 27.5 | 5
\6. | Shaw, Rhyce | 26.3 | 24
\7. | O'Keefe, Ryan | 25.3 | 24
\8. | Hannebery, Daniel | 10.8 | 25
\9. | Smith, Nick | 3.9 | 22
\10. | Everitt, Andrejs | 1.8 | 12
\11. | Jetta, Lewis | 1.3 | 25
\12. | Richards, Ted | 0.9 | 25
\13. | Armstrong, Tony | -0.9 | 8
\14. | McVeigh, Jarrad | -2.8 | 25
\15. | Kennedy, Josh P. | -3.2 | 25
\16. | Jack, Kieren | -3.9 | 25
\17. | Walsh, Tommy | -4.2 | 3
\18. | Mattner, Martin | -4.6 | 24
\19. | Johnson, Alex | -4.7 | 25
\20. | Mumford, Shane | -7.6 | 17
\21. | Cunningham, Harry | -7.8 | 1
\22. | White, Jesse | -9.0 | 3
\23. | McGlynn, Ben | -11.1 | 22
\24. | Roberts-Thomson, Lewis | -14.3 | 22
\25. | Seaby, Mark | -15.4 | 5
\26. | Parker, Luke | -21.3 | 19
\27. | Grundy, Heath | -21.4 | 24
\28. | Bird, Craig | -30.3 | 25
\29. | Rohan, Gary | -34.6 | 4
\30. | Goodes, Adam | -36.5 | 19
\31. | Malceski, Nick | -51.8 | 22

I wonder what Sydney's low synergy means? None over +/- >61, which other teams seems to have plenty. Does this in someway reflect system over individual talent?

 

[replicant]

Or maybe Sydney's low synergy is just a settled list with few injuries? If most players were there for unexpected wins and unexpected losses, then they will have a lower range than other teams maybe?

 

[KissKiss]

Im interested by all the other teams -most especially Brisbane though.

The other thing I noticed is that Sydney seemed to have a higher number of players with negative synergy. Would it be possible that they won games but failed to beat the line causing the negatives here?

 

[harliquin]

VERY interesting stuff. Would love to see the Hawks if you've got it.

 

[DangerSloane]

Yes! I just looked it up because I was curious, too.

Whether it means anything is open for debate, of course. I'm not familiar with Adelaide's list, so I have no idea whether Walker was just unlucky to miss a few good days, or if there might be a real connection between his absence and better team play. I'm interested to hear what supporters think about some of these.

Definitely not better without Walker. Just this year he happened to miss a few games where all of our players would've scored highly.

 

[Final Siren]

The other thing I noticed is that Sydney seemed to have a higher number of players with negative synergy. Would it be possible that they won games but failed to beat the line causing the negatives here?

I'm not sure, but one of the flaws with the margin-line metric is it doesn't care about wins. To this model, the difference between a 62-point win and a 60-point win is the same as the difference between a 1-point win and a 1-point loss.

In reality, though, good teams often seem to have the ability to do "just enough" to win games: when they really need to, they shift up a gear, but when they don't, they cruise to a 2 or 3 goal win. Geelong is probably the poster child for this, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sydney did it a bit in 2012, too. So yes, it's certainly possible that players were marked down for games in which Sydney failed to beat the line but could have, and would have, if that had been required to win the game.

 

[Final Siren]

Would love to see Carltons and Gold Coasts figures if you get a chance. Very interesting stuff.

Carlton

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Carrazzo, Andrew | 195.4 | 14
\2. | McInnes, Andrew | 132.9 | 8
\3. | Laidler, Jeremy | 90.8 | 4
\4. | Yarran, Christopher | 85.7 | 18
\5. | Waite, Jarrad | 67.9 | 11
\6. | Casboult, Levi | 58.5 | 6
\7. | Thornton, Bret | 52.6 | 7
\8. | Armfield, Dennis | 46.4 | 21
\9. | Tuohy, Zach | 43.9 | 19
\10. | Curnow, Edward | 33.4 | 18
\11. | Kreuzer, Matthew | 32.4 | 20
\12. | Collins, Andrew | 29.4 | 9
\13. | Garlett, Jeff | 28.9 | 22
\14. | Robinson, Mitch | 22.0 | 18
\15. | Murphy, Marc | 21.7 | 16
\16. | Davies, Marcus | 19.6 | 2
\17. | White, Simon | 15.7 | 5
\18. | Dale, Frazer | 7.3 | 2
\19. | Lucas, Kane | 3.8 | 8
\20. | Simpson, Kade | -1.7 | 19
\21. | Gibbs, Bryce | -2.7 | 22
\22. | Joseph, Aaron | -6.0 | 13
\23. | O'Keeffe, Rhys | -11.0 | 2
\24. | Betts, Eddie | -11.9 | 22
\25. | McCarthy, Patrick | -12.5 | 1
\26. | Mitchell, Luke | -12.8 | 1
\27. | Bell, Tom | -15.2 | 7
\28. | Scotland, Heath | -19.6 | 21
\29. | Henderson, Lachlan | -21.2 | 11
\30. | Watson, Matthew | -30.1 | 8
\31. | Judd, Chris | -38.4 | 17
\32. | McLean, Brock | -40.0 | 15
\33. | Warnock, Robert | -41.2 | 5
\34. | Bower, Paul | -51.8 | 10
\35. | Bootsma, Joshua | -52.1 | 5
\36. | Russell, Jordan | -61.7 | 7
\37. | Hampson, Shaun | -72.1 | 13
\38. | Duigan, Nicholas | -89.2 | 16
\39. | Walker, Andrew | -96.6 | 15
\40. | Jamison, Michael | -125.9 | 16
\41. | Ellard, David | -173.2 | 10

 

[Final Siren]

Gold Coast

In 2012, Gold Coast had a very odd record of playing much better without their best player...

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Weller, Maverick | 242.6 | 13
\2. | Dixon, Charlie | 125.9 | 12
\3. | Harbrow, Jarrod | 101.1 | 13
\4. | Horsley, Kyal | 88.8 | 13
\5. | Flanagan, Piers | 84.3 | 3
\6. | Shaw, Matt | 77.2 | 19
\7. | Matera, Brandon | 65.5 | 17
\8. | Magin, Alik | 64.6 | 5
\9. | Bock, Nathan | 52.6 | 4
\10. | Patrick, Liam | 49.7 | 8
\11. | Stanley, Danny | 47.6 | 13
\12. | Coad, Michael | 46.1 | 4
\13. | Gillbee, Jacob | 46.0 | 2
\14. | McKenzie, Trent | 38.7 | 18
\15. | Hall, Josh | 28.0 | 2
\16. | Swallow, David | 11.9 | 12
\17. | Allen, Jackson | 10.9 | 1
\18. | Warnock, Matthew | 6.6 | 22
\19. | Brown, Campbell | 3.8 | 19
\20. | Fraser, Josh | 2.6 | 2
\21. | Caddy, Josh | -3.2 | 22
\22. | Prestia, Dion | -7.0 | 14
\23. | Brennan, Jared | -8.5 | 17
\24. | Bennell, Harley | -14.0 | 22
\25. | Lynch, Thomas | -17.8 | 17
\26. | Day, Sam | -19.3 | 15
\27. | Toy, Josh | -21.1 | 5
\28. | Smith, Zac | -26.6 | 16
\29. | Hickey, Tom | -27.1 | 10
\30. | Gorringe, Daniel | -35.2 | 1
\31. | Wilkinson, Joel | -36.9 | 9
\32. | May, Steven | -38.9 | 8
\33. | Tape, Sebastian | -51.7 | 10
\34. | McQualter, Andrew | -53.8 | 5
\35. | Thompson, Rory | -74.3 | 5
\36. | Hunt, Karmichael | -77.1 | 18
\37. | Russell, Luke | -77.9 | 14
\38. | Ablett, Gary Jnr | -80.5 | 20
\39. | Hall, Aaron | -91.1 | 8
\40. | Rischitelli, Michael | -97.4 | 14
\41. | Taylor, Jeremy | -100.3 | 8
\42. | Sexton, Alex | -106.6 | 6
\43. | Iles, Sam | -127.0 | 10

 

[Arwib]

Sydney

# | Player | Synergy | Games
\1. | Reid, Sam | 60.1 | 22
\2. | Pyke, Mike | 59.1 | 18
\3. | Dennis-Lane, Trent | 37.1 | 8
\4. | Bolton, Jude | 30.5 | 22
\5. | Morton, Mitch | 27.5 | 5
\6. | Shaw, Rhyce | 26.3 | 24
\7. | O'Keefe, Ryan | 25.3 | 24
\8. | Hannebery, Daniel | 10.8 | 25
\9. | Smith, Nick | 3.9 | 22
\10. | Everitt, Andrejs | 1.8 | 12
\11. | Jetta, Lewis | 1.3 | 25
\12. | Richards, Ted | 0.9 | 25
\13. | Armstrong, Tony | -0.9 | 8
\14. | McVeigh, Jarrad | -2.8 | 25
\15. | Kennedy, Josh P. | -3.2 | 25
\16. | Jack, Kieren | -3.9 | 25
\17. | Walsh, Tommy | -4.2 | 3
\18. | Mattner, Martin | -4.6 | 24
\19. | Johnson, Alex | -4.7 | 25
\20. | Mumford, Shane | -7.6 | 17
\21. | Cunningham, Harry | -7.8 | 1
\22. | White, Jesse | -9.0 | 3
\23. | McGlynn, Ben | -11.1 | 22
\24. | Roberts-Thomson, Lewis | -14.3 | 22
\25. | Seaby, Mark | -15.4 | 5
\26. | Parker, Luke | -21.3 | 19
\27. | Grundy, Heath | -21.4 | 24
\28. | Bird, Craig | -30.3 | 25
\29. | Rohan, Gary | -34.6 | 4
\30. | Goodes, Adam | -36.5 | 19
\31. | Malceski, Nick | -51.8 | 22

25-gamers have some fairly different levels of synergy there. Bird the frequent sub probably the most impacted.

 

[Forward Press]

Wow, Gazza at 38 for Gold Coast.

This is an interesting thread, thanks!

 

[KissKiss]

Its definitely interesting looking at the players who were injured and missed significant parts of the year. Waite and Carrazzo show the difference they make