Our easy draw suddenly got harder

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bodazoka

bodazoka

Brownlow Medallist
Veteran 10k Posts
Aug 12, 2008
11,785
1,264
Kalgoorlie
AFL Club
West Coast
Essendon have had 2 great wins in a row, hard fought contest at home v Sydney and a decent flogging of a resilient Western Bulldogs. They also had a pretty good game to 3qtr time v Collingwood, actually leading them for a half I believe. We play them at home

Brisbane have been very good at home over the last few weeks, they beat Port Adelaide there, matched Geelong and were 3 goals up against Adelaide with only a few minutes to go before they got run over and have just smashed the GC in there last 4 games at the Gabba. We play them at the Gabba

Adelaide... well they have beaten Port Adelaide in a derby which is always tough, they beat Brisbane at home and have just backed up with a fantastic high pressure, 4 quarter game against Geelong, going down by a kick. We play them at home

We should obviously still start favourites in every game but two weeks ago these games were easy beats. Now those teams all look like they have stepped up and are playing good to great football.
 
We play Adelaide at home actually. And it should be pointed out that Essendon are rubbish travellers.
 

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bodazoka said:
Essendon have had 2 great wins in a row, hard fought contest at home v Sydney and a decent flogging of a resilient Western Bulldogs. They also had a pretty good game to 3qtr time v Collingwood, actually leading them for a half I believe. We play them at home

Brisbane have been very good at home over the last few weeks, they beat Port Adelaide there, matched Geelong and were 3 goals up against Adelaide with only a few minutes to go before they got run over and have just smashed the GC in there last 4 games at the Gabba. We play them at the Gabba

Adelaide... well they have beaten Port Adelaide in a derby which is always tough, they beat Brisbane at home and have just backed up with a fantastic high pressure, 4 quarter game against Geelong, going down by a kick. We play them at home

We should obviously still start favourites in every game but two weeks ago these games were easy beats. Now those teams all look like they have stepped up and are playing good to great football.
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Sydney is in bad form. They just lost to Richmond and the Bulldogs arent that great. Add to that that Essendon cant travel to Perth and we should account for them next week.

Brisbane got beaten by Adelaide and have only beaten Port and GC.

Adelaide may show something but havent beaten anyone of note either. A decent showing against Geelong today but was that more because Geelong played poorly?
 
Not sure if the Adelaide-Geelong game says more about the crows or the cats.

Confident on Essendon and Lions, Adelaide at home SHOULD give a win and a top 4 spot.
 
Essendon travel really poorly (see Essendon vs Fremantle 2011)

Brisbane ran out of legs against Adelaide and the Gold Coast are hardly a consistent side.

Adelaide is the only one I'm concerned about but they're not hugely good travellers either, and by Round 24 I think they'll have rum out of new coach resiliance. I think we'll still go 3 for 3. The biggest Eagles game for the year is still Hawthorn vs Carlton in my opinion.
 
Meh about the bombers, their best player last night Stanton turns to jelly just getting on a plane let alone playing a game of footy interstate..
 
Estimating our odds for each match...
v Essendon (h)- 66%
v Brisbane (a)- 70% (I have a hunch that this is the one we'll lose, especially if we rest players) :(
v Adelaide (h)- 80%
which means we're only a 37% chance of winning all 3! ...:eek:
 

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I've just realised that even if we lose the next three games, we are guaranteed fifth spot.

That is, no matter what happens, we have a home final. We will finish at least eleven places higher than last season.

We've had a great run no matter what happens in the next few weeks.
 
WCErevival said:
Adelaide may show something but havent beaten anyone of note either. A decent showing against Geelong today but was that more because Geelong played poorly?
Click to expand...

Geelong were off but Adelaide caused most of it with there pressure.

No doubt we will and should start favourites but these games are all significantly harder then they seemed a few weeks ago.
 
essendon always play well against us..i never take them for granted.

i just think of all games this year, where we need to be fully tuned to an ambush,and all those 'gotta bad feeling' posts - this is the game-the game weve got to win..for the 4 points, for 4th spot,for the double chance...but mainly we have to win just because its bloody essenscum..its the only team that brings out the evil in me...i have an uncontrollable desire to see them whacked all over subi stadium..whacked and racked..a thumping..and to see the golden boys face..:rolleyes: (nothing personal of course)

re the remaining draw..carlton has a tougher draw..we should still snag 4th .. its been a wild ride this year,am happy with that..but would love to see WCE come out in full force,and bring their best game of the season in at least 1 final..
 
Brazen said:
At what point do I make the decision to buy tickets to Melbourne for the first week of finals is the real question :/

If the Hawks beat the Blues on Friday, and we beat the Dons... I think thats the time to pull the trigger with flights :thumbsu:
Click to expand...

Already have them booked- now desperate for us to get 4th!!! otherwise I'd say it wouldn't make that much difference- as it'll be a miracle to even have a chance against the pies. But oh how I'd LOVE to watch us in a final at the G, regardless of result!!!
 
Is anyone worried that in our last few games we are facing bottom 8 teams that when we do get to the finals we wont be ready for the intensity? It might be better that a couple of these teams give us a good run. Flogging easy teams does nothing for us. We dont want to get complacent.
 
Prefer to be playing teams with a bit of form leading in to finals, all been a bit easy last few weeks, need a genuine challenge or two these last few weeks to keep the intensity up.

But i think everyone has valid points - if we're good enough to finish 4th we'll win these games. So long as Hawthorn win we can afford to drop one.
 
If we can't beat these 3 teams then we do not deserve to finish in the top 4! We should be better than 50/50 on these. We are playing well enough to topple them all and finish with that 4th spot!
 
WCE will win all 3 so it wont really matter what happens in the Hawthorn v Carlton game. Hawks should still finish 3rd even if lose to Carlton........should be able to handle WB and GC in the last 2 rounds.
Get your flights booked to Melbourne for the first week of the finals.....you will be playing the Pies.
 
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