Analysis Our next month is make or break for 2016

[Football God]

It's pretty obvious I know. Sitting at 4 wins 5 losses (Everyone knows we shouldn't have lose some winnable games early on) But we've done a U-turn stringing to get some solid wins, one of them being a premiership favourite.

This week we've got the doggies FINALLY at OUR home ground, the MCG (the first time since 2011)
They are the number 1 defence in the comp. conceding an average of only 70 points.
(Collingwoods 12th 97 points)
But their first 7 games of the season was at Etihad and here's our chance to pounce on them with the confidence we are playing with and their minor bump last week against GWS.

Interesting Fact: our last 2 1st quaters combined we have scored 11.14.80 to 0.0.3

Looking ahead we have Port Adelaide at the MCG. They've had some close matches recently and our last few games have been hard fought and will be another close contest.

Melbourne- They haven't dropped and have been impressive but we played terriblelast time and can turn things around the way we have been playing.

Then we have the Bye(Win!)

Fremantle on a friday night at Home... Teams all of a sudden play like they are the Monstars stealing the skills fromm NBA superstars in space jam so we can't take then lightely

Carlton- How did we lose to this rabble of a club?

If you're Optimistic like me (most Collingwood supporters are, because anything possible with us. Eg. Cloke might kick straight) We could go from 4-5 to 9-5. They are all winnable games. If we get lucky with injuries things will suddenly look bright!

It gets tough from there. Our remaining games in order:
GWS
Adelaide
North Melbourne
West Coast
Richmond
Bulldogs
Gold Coast
Hawthorn

 

[swiftdog]

If we make finals no doubt we will have earnt it. I think we need to go 3-1 over the next month, bringing us to 7-6, to have a chance. Dogs game obviously the toughest of the lot but at least it's at the MCG. We should beat Port at the MCG while Melbourne game is probably 50/50 at this stage. Freo at the G is a must-win.

 

[PieNSauce]

To me a finals appearance was always going to be an over-achievement and from this point I'd say it would be a near miracle. That said, stranger things have happened in footy and as an optimist, I'll happily sit here and believe it's possible. Bring it on!

 

[FireKrakouer]

I think this Sunday will tell us a fair bit. Whether the last 2 games were an abnormality, or if they are the new norm. Not even saying we have to win, but we must be competitive and not look completely lost as we did at the beginning of the season.

 

[mattys123]

Nah we're already broken.

Sorry to say but starting 2-5 screwed us.

We aren't playing finals, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun on the way in.

Maximum games I see us winning is 12 and that won't get you in the finals this year.

 

[Countrypie]

Nah we're already broken.

Sorry to say but starting 2-5 screwed us.

We aren't playing finals, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun on the way in.

Maximum games I see us winning is 12 and that won't get you in the finals this year.

Probably spot on - we need 13 - anything is possible - we may get GWS at the right time and the Hawks might have picked up some downhill momentum by the time we play them - anything's possible but we'll probably lose to Gold Coast or something and dreams will turn to dust

 

[Saintly Viewed]

Unknown.
Up to the team playing to their abilities, they will earn it, or not.
Either way, looks like we have turned a corner, which is something

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Very real possibility of going 1-7 looking at those last eight rounds. Expect 4 from the next 5 though which puts us at 9 wins for the season. Not great but it's a tough draw.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

i think if we can get over the Dogs (big if), then you'd think we'd have the confidence and momentum to take the 4 games after that. We especially need revenge on Melbourne and Carlton. In that 5 game run, we should also get injured players back.

 

[spartan-magpie]

We will only lose 2 games for the rest of the year. Which 2? Not sure... I think we've turned the corner.

 

[Lockyer24]

Let's just see what happens this week. We've cone from putrid to very good in quick time but it's not impossible to do the reverse.

 

[Wooljay]

Nah we're already broken.

Sorry to say but starting 2-5 screwed us.

We aren't playing finals, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun on the way in.

Maximum games I see us winning is 12 and that won't get you in the finals this year.

8 from the remaining 14 games is probably a fair estimate, but if we even make it 9 or 10 from 14 then who knows?

For a team out of the 8 we haven't got a totally rubbish percentage, but the back end of our season is going to be rough as guts.

Would be a spectacular achievement if we made it.

 

[jmac70]

8 from the remaining 14 games is probably a fair estimate, but if we even make it 9 or 10 from 14 then who knows?

For a team out of the 8 we haven't got a totally rubbish percentage, but the back end of our season is going to be rough as guts.

Would be a spectacular achievement if we made it.

I don't think we will make it but I am bullish about our prospects in 2017. I reckon being in our current position will set up us nicely for next season. We have nothing to lose and can really let the young players have a crack this year. In some respects sneaking into the 8 with a late burst can do more harm than good. Look at Richmond.

 

[Chief Ten Beers]

Every year we have to have a collapse, I think we just got it over and done with. Especially since we had 16 on the injury list at one stage! It was a mirror of the last halves of 2014 and 2015!

 

[Shaneprice97]

Im hoping we do a reverse 2014/15, already have had our horrible patch and finish the rest of this season in strong form...

 

[76woodenspooners]

I dunno if we'll play finals or not ...

... but fair guess that for our Round 23 game against Hawthorn ...

... the winner will get a finals berth.

High Drama - It's the Collingwood way

 

[Jelly Bean]

Very real possibility of going 1-7 looking at those last eight rounds. Expect 4 from the next 5 though which puts us at 9 wins for the season. Not great but it's a tough draw.

Its not really a tough draw - the issue is we lost too many games in the easy part of our draw (e.g. St Kilda, Carlton, Melbourne). We play those three teams with the confidence we had last week and we win. We win, and we are 7-2.

 

[Mateyman]

Realistically would say we need to win the next 5, then roll West Coast, Richmond, Gold Coast and one of the Hawks and the Bulldogs in the run home. I think it's possible. Bring whatever we did to the Geelong game every week and we can do it. But we can't afford any more slip us. We've got a good run of home games at the G now though, so hopefully we can turn it into a bit of a fortress.
No idea what the AFL is doing making us travel back to back against GWS and Adelaide. Bizarre stuff. Our game against Port should be the one which is away in a week or 2.

 

[Hardas]

Nah we're already broken.
Sorry to say but starting 2-5 screwed us.
We aren't playing finals, but that doesn't mean we can't have some fun on the way in.
Maximum games I see us winning is 12 and that won't get you in the finals this year.

Yep, the poor start against mediocre opposition, combined with the hard second-half schedule has pretty much doomed us to a best-case scenario of just outside the eight, you'd think.

 

[Jelly Bean]

The reality is we needed to pinch 1-2 games against teams that were a bit better than us to make the 8 (13/14 wins). Now, we still need to pinch those 1-2 games, but also need to pinch back 3 games to make up for the Carl, Mel, StK losses. We've done one of those (Geel), but we need the Doggies this week as well to start breaking back in. And that is on top of winning the games against opposition that we really ought to win.

Tough ask.

 

[Spatfers]

Why would you want to 'just' make the 8 anyway. I don't want to be in September unless we can do damage, otherwise we'll just embarrass ourselves. Lets just get the game plan right and the troops fit and get set for 2017.

 

[PTpie]

Why would you want to 'just' make the 8 anyway. I don't want to be in September unless we can do damage, otherwise we'll just embarrass ourselves. Lets just get the game plan right and the troops fit and get set for 2017.

Experience mate. Our lads are so young and many haven't ever played in a final, so just being in an elimination and losing would be invaluable.

We play some big games throughout the regular season (ANZAC day and Queens Birthday) but nothing is as ruthless as an elimination final. As much as you'd like to believe the players feel it is, it isn't "just another game". Careers are defined in finals. Coaches are made and broken. Clubs are judged on the end game.

I'd rather play finals and lose than finish Richmond - I mean ninth.

 

[sr36]

I don't understand people saying we have no chance to make the 8. This year is more open than ever. No team looks unbeatable. There are no games that I'll go in thinking we have no chance. If we win 9 out of the last 13, we'll be in. The odds are against us, but we still have a reasonable chance.

 

[Spatfers]

Experience mate. Our lads are so young and many haven't ever played in a final, so just being in an elimination and losing would be invaluable.

We play some big games throughout the regular season (ANZAC day and Queens Birthday) but nothing is as ruthless as an elimination final. As much as you'd like to believe the players feel it is, it isn't "just another game". Careers are defined in finals. Coaches are made and broken. Clubs are judged on the end game.

I'd rather play finals and lose than finish Richmond - I mean ninth.

I do understand your point, but say we are pumped by 100 points, was it still an invaluable experience?

 

[sr36]

I do understand your point, but say we are pumped by 100 points, was it still an invaluable experience?

Yes.