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Analysis Permutations

  • Thread starter Thread starter samFFC
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Simmofreo said:
I see this as a bad thing. Any other team would struggle against us at home with 40 000 fans egging us on. However a brutal derby with a 50/50 support would be disasterous even if we win IMO. Would take a lot out of the tank.
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Would it be 50/50 or would we get "home" advantage (therefore our game?)
 
PurpleGreenRed said:
Would it be 50/50 or would we get "home" advantage (therefore our game?)
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Where will our seating be for weeks 1, 2 & 3 of the finals?
The AFL distributes an even number of tickets within each reserved seat category, along with restricted/standing room tickets to both competing clubs for each final.

You will be able to nominate which club you wish to be seated with.
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http://www.afl.com.au/tickets/finals/finals-ticket-faqs-and-terms-and-conditions
 

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samFFC said:
http://www.afl.com.au/tickets/finals/finals-ticket-faqs-and-terms-and-conditions
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Where will our seating be for weeks 1, 2 & 3 of the finals?
The AFL distributes an even number of tickets within each reserved seat category, along with restricted/standing room tickets to both competing clubs for each final.*

You will be able to nominate which club you wish to be seated with.
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They forgot the *, which is the Geelong clause, where they will give a small allocation to Fremantle and the rest to Geelong.
 
Really happy to see your boys up and about. Was worried you were in a hole and couldn't get out.

Outside of my own team, I genuinely would be very happy to see Pav win a flag with Freo. Can't think of a more deserving champion and this would ice his career beautifully.
 
Top 2 for Freo now requires:

1. Fremantle wins both matches with percentage boosting wins in both (we are talking a total margin of around 100-120 at the minimum)

and then 2 of the following:
Sydney loses to both WB and Richmond
Hawthorn loses to Collingwood by >5 goals
Geelong loses to Brisbane
 
My ideal scenario:

Week 1:
Freo beat Sydney
Hawks beat Geelong

Week 2:
Geelong beat whoever

Week 3:
In front of 40,000 screaming fans in purple, Freo smash the absolute living bejesus out of those flog Cats pretenders and embarrass the shyte out of them, sending them back to Geelong to lick their sorry wounds and think about it all off-season.

Week 4:
well, we know ho week 4 would turn out (in my ideal scenario)

But yeah, yeah - one week at a time and all that...
 
samFFC said:
Top 2 for Freo now requires:

1. Fremantle wins both matches with percentage boosting wins in both (we are talking a total margin of around 100-120 at the minimum)

and then 2 of the following:
Sydney loses to both WB and Richmond
Hawthorn loses to Collingwood by >5 goals
Geelong loses to Brisbane
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Sooooooooooo, highly unlikely then, you'd think?
 
Dockernut said:
Sooooooooooo, highly unlikely then, you'd think?
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As a guestimate:

1. Fremantle wins both matches with percentage boosting wins in both (we are talking a total margin of around 100-120 at the minimum)
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Around a 50% chance of flogging the Lions, and then about 40% chance (at best) of beating Port by 5 goals or more. So just 20% chance of that.

and then 2 of the following:
Sydney loses to both WB and Richmond
Hawthorn loses to Collingwood by >5 goals
Geelong loses to Brisbane
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Option one is around a 5% chance
Option two is around 10% chance
Option three is around 10% chance

Any 2 out of those three (or all 3) is around 2% chance.

So all up: 20% * 2% = less than 0.5% chance.

Looks like we will be travelling in week 1!
 
We need to win both and significantly.

I'm not worried about Brisbane but am so in taking Port without Fyfe.

Here are the keys to winning both.

Hill, D.Pearce, Mayne and Mundy BOG efforts. Talking monstering contest and running game between them.
 
Docker Alyssa said:
We need to win both and significantly.

I'm not worried about Brisbane but am so in taking Port without Fyfe.

Here are the keys to winning both.

Hill, D.Pearce, Mayne and Mundy BOG efforts. Talking monstering contest and running game between them.
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Never fear, Lachie Neale is here
 

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Another possibility - and not one that I wish to entertain because of home-ground advantage being diminished - is that we finish 5th and West Coast 8th. It'd be worth bringing back Dale Kickett for one final appearance...
 
We beat the Hawks without Ballas and with Silvagni/Walters only just getting back into the squad after long layoffs. Barlow and Fyfe will obviously be missed but we're more than than just a team with a few superstars. Both Subes and Ibbo are 100+ gamers. It's hardly like we are throwing in youngsters to cover.

Can't wait to see how Brissy deal with a Freo forward line as dangerous as ours.

Crozier Tabs Mayne
Walters Pav Ballas

The Port board will change their tune when they see the pressure we put on the Brissy defence, our defence has another week to settle in together and our middle is still effective without our best two mids.

Mundy last week you were great. This week we need you to be Captain-like-Great.
 

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If Brisbane somehow manage to beat Geelong, we will be 3rd and off to play Hawthorn at the MCG.

They got close last year!
 
pokerspiv said:
We will be favourites, but not very strong favourites with Fyfe, Barlow and possibly Pavlich out.
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If we are unable to knock off Port at home missing a couple of our best, how the ****** are we ever going to knock off Sydney or Hawthorn at the MCG? By rights we should smash these guys to a pulp; and our midfield performed OK today with a revised structure ...
 
ozzie69 said:
If we are unable to knock off Port at home missing a couple of our best, how the ****** are we ever going to knock off Sydney or Hawthorn at the MCG?
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We wouldn't beat them without Fyfe, Pavlich and Barlow, that's for sure. They are probably 3 of our 5 most important players.

Hopefully we can knock off Port, and then have everyone back to play Sydney.

We aren't a good enough team to beat Sydney or Hawthorn without 3 of our best players, I thought that was pretty obvious. We beat Hawthorn last week with our absolute best 22 on the ground, at home, with them having quite a few injuries. Reverse the situation at the MCG with us being the one having our stars out and it just isn't going to happen.

Teams don't win premierships with all their star players on the sidelines. You have to be realistic.
 
pokerspiv said:
We wouldn't beat them without Fyfe, Pavlich and Barlow, that's for sure. They are probably 3 of our 5 most important players.

Hopefully we can knock off Port, and then have everyone back to play Sydney.

We aren't a good enough team to beat Sydney or Hawthorn without 3 of our best players, I thought that was pretty obvious. We beat Hawthorn last week with our absolute best 22 on the ground, at home, with them having quite a few injuries. Reverse the situation at the MCG with us being the one having our stars out and it just isn't going to happen.

Teams don't win premierships with all their star players on the sidelines. You have to be realistic.
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What I'm saying is that Port aren't really in particularly good form ATM. Based on current form, we should win quite comfortably, even missing some players.
 

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