Opinion Pick 6* – who do you want?

[danster168]

I don't think there is a Curtin obsession, there is a consensus amongst the experts that he is one of the best draft picks. Makes sense that most people would want Curtin if he slipped through to pick six.

To me trading a certain pick 6 for a future f1 pick which is unknown and could end up pick 6 regardless (or higher) doesn't make any sense. Just feels like we've wasted time.

Yeah, I'm just saying that over the 21 years, 17 of them would've also been one of the consensus best draft picks. Nothing is new.
I do agree that trading out pick 6 for a F1 pick seems like a waste of time. id want massive overs for doing that.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

We should trade pick 6 for a less cursed pick, let's see if GWS would swap us for their pick 7

We might have to give them pick 11 also to move back to the less cursed 7 but its something I think we should consider.

 

[Bluelegs]

We might have to give them pick 11 also to move back to the less cursed 7 but its something I think we should consider.

Bid on Ethan Read to move back a pick, then Gold Coast don't match.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Bid on Ethan Read to move back a pick, then Gold Coast don't match.

That would be heartbreaking

 

[stEdy]

or JT outsmarts everyone and just picks his 7th highest rated talent at pick 6 to try and counter the pick 6 curse

 

[LittleDemon]

The correct answer is to draft more key forwards

Technically Curtin can play both ends of the ground.

But it looks like most here don't rate F1 + 23 for Curtin trade and would just take him at 6 (or whatever it ends up being after matched bids).

 

[Scythe94]

If we're going to do this exercise, here are some Pick 7s since 2000 (where we'll actually be picking after the Walter bid, though it could be Pick 8 if a bid on Read is made):

Andrew Mackie

Andrew Mackie

Age

39

Ht

193cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.2

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

6.6

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.1

4star

MG

346.7

5star

No current season stats available

D

9.0

3star

K

6.2

3star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.2

4star

, David Hale

David Hale

Age

39

Ht

201cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

4.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.9

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.6

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

0.4

3star

, Jordan Lewis

Jordan Lewis

Age

38

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.5

5star

K

12.1

4star

HB

11.5

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.7

4star

MG

310.5

4star

No current season stats available

D

15.0

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

5star

, Paddy Ryder, Joel Selwood, Daniel Rich

10

Daniel Rich

Age

33

Ht

183cm

Wt

95kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.7

5star

K

12.6

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

430.3

5star

D

14.9

4star

K

13.1

5star

HB

1.8

1star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

MG

384.3

5star

D

16.2

4star

K

10.4

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

5.2

5star

, Brad Sheppard, Nick Haynes

19

Nick Haynes

Age

31

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.4

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

4.9

4star

M

6.2

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

326.8

4star

D

17.4

4star

K

13.9

5star

HB

3.5

2star

M

8.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

MG

326.8

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

2.2

4star

, Ollie Wines, Josh Caddy

22

Josh Caddy

Age

31

Ht

186cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

13.5

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

6.0

3star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.7

3star

D

14.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

1.8

4star

, Jacob Hopper

22

Jacob Hopper

Age

27

Ht

187cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.0

5star

K

9.9

4star

HB

11.1

5star

M

2.9

3star

T

4.5

5star

CL

4.3

5star

D

17.6

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

8.9

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

18.6

5star

K

8.4

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.4

5star

, Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

, Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

and in the last two years, Josh Ward and Cam McKenzie (both are promising talents)

 

[Scythe94]

If we're going to get all superstitious, Picks 7 and 13 (where we'll be picking unless we bid on Read and early bids come on Croft and Rogers) look pretty good to me.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

or JT outsmarts everyone and just picks his 7th highest rated talent at pick 6 to try and counter the pick 6 curse

Draft a kid he interviewed and hated just to ruin his career by taking him at pick 6

 

[CTHORANGE]

View attachment 1852483

If we're going to get all superstitious, Picks 7 and 13 (where we'll be picking unless we bid on Read and early bids come on Croft and Rogers) look pretty good to me.

It is an oddity that pick 6 really does stand out as being a bit ordinary, but a meaningless stat of course

 

[mrmonkey]

Yeah, I'm just saying that over the 21 years, 17 of them would've also been one of the consensus best draft picks. Nothing is new.
I do agree that trading out pick 6 for a F1 pick seems like a waste of time. id want massive overs for doing that.

So what's the solution? that's the pick we have. Do we not pick the best available because he will be a bust.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

View attachment 1852483

If we're going to get all superstitious, Picks 7 and 13 (where we'll be picking unless we bid on Read and early bids come on Croft and Rogers) look pretty good to me.

Confirmed pick 6 is the worst place to draft from, this club cant do anything right!!

WHAT WAS TIM LAMB DOING??? PLAYING SOLITARE??? HOW COULD YOU HE NOT REALISE FREMANTLE WOULD FINISH WHERE THEY DID WHEN HE MADE THE JACKSON TRADE AND THAT THE AFL WOULD GIVE NORTH A COMP PICK FOR MCKAY ???

 

[the big lebowski]

This Curtin obsession is getting out of control.

Let's look at 21 years of pick 6:

2000: Dylan Smith (North Melbourne)
2001: Ashley Sampi (West Coast)
2002: Steven Salopek (Port Adelaide)
2003: Kepler Bradley (Essendon)
2004: Tom Williams (Western Bulldogs)
2005: Beau Dowler (Hawthorn)
2006: Mitch Thorp (Hawthorn)
2007: David Myers (Essendon)
2008: Chris Yarran (Carlton)
2009: Gary Rohan (Sydney)
2010: Reece Conca (Richmond)
2011: Chad Wingard (Port Adelaide)
2012: Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs)
2013: Matthew Scharenberg (Collingwood)
2014: Caleb Marchbank (GWS)
2015: Aaron Francis (Essendon)
2016: Sam Petrevski-Seton (Carlton)
2017: Jaidyn Stephenson (Collingwood)
2018 Ben King (Gold Coast)
2019: Fischer McAsey (Adelaide)
2020: Denver Granger-Barrass (Hawks)

Whether it be form, injury, off-field issues, or simply not being good enough 17 of these 21 picks have been busts. That's a 81% failure rate. So under no circumstances do we HAVE to take anyone.

Incredible

 

[danster168]

So what's the solution? that's the pick we have. Do we not pick the best available because he will be a bust.

We pick the best available knowing full well about the highly speculative nature of draft picks. Surely if JT picks someone other than what we expect then we know it's because he has reason to do so. We don't HAVE to take anyone just because they apparently slide. If Curtin 'slides' it's because both the hawks and the dogs and North Melbourne preferred someone else.

 

[Demon 16]

We pick the best available knowing full well about the highly speculative nature of draft picks. Surely if JT picks someone other than what we expect then we know it's because he has reason to do so. We don't HAVE to take anyone just because they apparently slide. If Curtin 'slides' it's because both the hawks and the dogs and North Melbourne preferred someone else.

Who do you (realistically) hope we take at 6 Danster?

 

[schmuttt]

Incredible

Welcome to the MFC board

 

[mrmonkey]

We pick the best available knowing full well about the highly speculative nature of draft picks. Surely if JT picks someone other than what we expect then we know it's because he has reason to do so. We don't HAVE to take anyone just because they apparently slide. If Curtin 'slides' it's because both the hawks and the dogs and North Melbourne preferred someone else.

I don't think anyone is saying we have to take him at 6 but in most people's view he would be best available if he was available at 6. Obviously you don't rate him which is fine. What player(s) would be your preference? Is the go home factor a worry for you or would it be the fact that north, bulldogs and hawthorn pass on him a red flag?

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

I think there’s definitely reasonable arguments not to take Curtin at 6 if he’s available. I don’t doubt part of the reason some people are so keen is that he was initially being talked about as a top 3 pick so people have the perception if he slides to our pick he’s a steal, which isn’t really an accurate guide.

I’d be happy enough to get him because he has some amazing attributes but I’m not convinced on what I’ve seen he’s going to end up as a midfield prospect or a traditional FB/CHB. If he becomes a star I think it’s more likely it’s as an interceptor and distributor. His height and kicking skills would make him very hard to stop in that role if he develops to his potential.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I think there’s definitely reasonable arguments not to take Curtin at 6 if he’s available. I don’t doubt part of the reason some people are so keen is that he was initially being talked about as a top 3 pick so people have the perception if he slides to our pick he’s a steal, which isn’t really an accurate guide.

Completely irrelevant. I still have him as a top 3 talent. Been a fan from the moment I saw him play, just cause hes potentially sliding doesnt change anything.

 

[danster168]

Who do you (realistically) hope we take at 6 Danster?

I hope we take O'Sullivan but I think its highly unlikely according to Twomey. And if not him, I hope we take Watson.

 

[danster168]

I think there’s definitely reasonable arguments not to take Curtin at 6 if he’s available. I don’t doubt part of the reason some people are so keen is that he was initially being talked about as a top 3 pick so people have the perception if he slides to our pick he’s a steal, which isn’t really an accurate guide.

I’d be happy enough to get him because he has some amazing attributes but I’m not convinced on what I’ve seen he’s going to end up as a midfield prospect or a traditional FB/CHB. If he becomes a star I think it’s more likely it’s as an interceptor and distributor. His height and kicking skills would make him very hard to stop in that role if he develops to his potential.

Spot on.

 

[Scythe94]

Credit to GoTigers2015 for putting this consensus together in another thread.



Reckon Leake is being undervalued nearly across the board (particularly ESPN, though I rate their draft opinions lower than most).

Think he either goes to us, GWS or Geelong at 6*-8*, depending on what happens with Curtin. If he somehow made it to 11*, I'd be over the moon.

 

[danster168]

I don't think anyone is saying we have to take him at 6 but in most people's view he would be best available if he was available at 6. Obviously you don't rate him which is fine. What player(s) would be your preference? Is the go home factor a worry for you or would it be the fact that north, bulldogs and hawthorn pass on him a red flag?

I personally like O'Sullivan, Watson, Caddy and then Sanders and Curtin last. But I'll back anyone JT picks up. It's more who I hope JT rates. JT usually goes for competitors which is why I think he'll go for Tholstrup at 11 (which will be 14ish). So if we walked away with Curtin and Tholstrup I'd be a little nervous with the go home factor. Losing a player like Jackson and Petty early in their careers really puts you back. We still haven't got anything from Jackson yet. Jefferson is 1-2 years away at best and who knows how long our first pick this year takes so it's just a massive momentum killer. Same when Petty goes.

 

[Meds]

... We still haven't got anything from Jackson yet. Jefferson is 1-2 years away at best and who knows how long our first pick this year takes so it's just a massive momentum killer. Same when Petty goes.

Except for this...

If two years of Curtain or Tholstrup or any interstate players got us another premiership that's something I can live with

 

[danster168]

Except for this...

If two years of Curtain or Tholstrup or any interstate players got us another premiership that's something I can live with

this is the complacent mindset that our players have probably had the last years too. Too content with 2021.