Draft Expert PMBangers' (and ‘friends’) 2022 Draft Board

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weltschmerz

Norm Smith Medallist
May 23, 2019
9,232
21,769
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Fogarty is a very good shot on goal, but his career is still in its infancy. Hopefully he can maintain this conversion rate, stay healthy and kick over 500 goals across his career.

Tony Lockett had a goal kicking percentage of 69.7%
Peter Hudson was 68.8%
Matthew Lloyd - 68.6%
Daniel Bradshaw - 67.3%
Doug Wade - 66.9%
Michael Roach - 66.4%
Jason Dunstall - 66.1%
Fraser Gehrig - 65.8%
Tony Modra - 65.6%
Eddie Betts - 65.2%
Peter McKenna - 65.0%

Luke Breust has kicked 481 goals at 68.4%

Every player besides Breust kicked over 500 goals and had a conversion rate over 65%. These are the only players in AFL history that meet this criteria, with no current players achieving the mark. The Under 18's and other development leagues desperately need to employ some of these former players to coach kids coming through on how to convert their opportunities on goal before this skill is lost.

Tory Dickson kicked 181.61 across his career, exceptionally accurate. He's said he wouldn't know how to teach it.
 

BigFella!

Rookie
Aug 17, 2022
23
46
AFL Club
Adelaide
Tory Dickson kicked 181.61 across his career, exceptionally accurate. He's said he wouldn't know how to teach it.
Tory Dickson was very accurate when kicking for goal and a handy small forward; he just didn't play enough games to get to the 500 goals mark. Most of the key forwards with very good goal conversion rates maintained a low ball drop on set shots, tended to lead and take marks within V and within 40 metres from goal and had a routine they could replicate again and again with minimal technical faults in their actions to reduce the risk of kicking points. There is also the psychological side of players putting pressure on themselves to perform or players being able to absorb pressure to kick crucial goals. The decline of accurate goal kicking has been a blight on our game for over a decade; this needs to be rectified before it is too late.
 

Sleezy

Club Legend
Mar 17, 2015
2,994
6,001
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I never understand these discussions.

Are we comparing 18 year old Rankine to the 18 year olds this year? Or comparing 22 year old Rankine to them? And if he's being slotted into this draft pool, should the others from 2018 also be considered then? What about every other player in the league? Because there's a lot of players who would be top 5 in any draft. In which case, PM saying 5-10 might be generous - since he arguably wouldn't be a top 5 pick from his own draft given there's Walsh, Smith, Rozee and the King twins. But there's hindsight threads elsewhere, which I stay clear of for a reason.

Trade value is different to draft position.
I've always thought about it like this:
  • it's draft night 2022
  • GCS and the Crows did not arrive at a satisfactory deal for Rankine, and Rankine has nominated for the national draft (suspending some disbelief here).
  • I am a recruiter, and I'm asking myself this question: where on my draft board should I be slotting 22 year old Isaac Rankine, with 4 years of exposed form at AFL level?

He is 4 years older, already a proven performer, hasn't quite looked like reaching his pre-draft potential, has had a poor run with injuries, will cost a lot more than an 18 year old salary wise.

This is all more information than I have on any other player in the draft. At what point does pretty much knowing what I'm getting with Rankine outweigh the potential greater upside in a fresh draftee, that also comes with a far greater uncertainty?

Imagine you are the giants recruiter with pick 3, and current day Rankine is in the pool. Woukd you prefer him? Or Sheezel? Or Cadman? Or Wardlaw?
 

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tenderwarrior

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 26, 2003
5,720
5,041
Launceston
AFL Club
Geelong
I've always thought about it like this:
  • it's draft night 2022
  • GCS and the Crows did not arrive at a satisfactory deal for Rankine, and Rankine has nominated for the national draft (suspending some disbelief here).
  • I am a recruiter, and I'm asking myself this question: where on my draft board should I be slotting 22 year old Isaac Rankine, with 4 years of exposed form at AFL level?

He is 4 years older, already a proven performer, hasn't quite looked like reaching his pre-draft potential, has had a poor run with injuries, will cost a lot more than an 18 year old salary wise.

This is all more information than I have on any other player in the draft. At what point does pretty much knowing what I'm getting with Rankine outweigh the potential greater upside in a fresh draftee, that also comes with a far greater uncertainty?

Imagine you are the giants recruiter with pick 3, and current day Rankine is in the pool. Woukd you prefer him? Or Sheezel? Or Cadman? Or Wardlaw?
Same.. I think he goes between pick 4-6 in that type of scenario, but I am not a recruiter's butt-hole..
 

WeedsMullet84

Cancelled
Oct 31, 2018
2,982
4,825
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Celtic, Glenelg
Same.. I think he goes between pick 4-6 in that type of scenario, but I am not a recruiter's butt-hole..

I've always thought about it like this:
  • it's draft night 2022
  • GCS and the Crows did not arrive at a satisfactory deal for Rankine, and Rankine has nominated for the national draft (suspending some disbelief here).
  • I am a recruiter, and I'm asking myself this question: where on my draft board should I be slotting 22 year old Isaac Rankine, with 4 years of exposed form at AFL level?

He is 4 years older, already a proven performer, hasn't quite looked like reaching his pre-draft potential, has had a poor run with injuries, will cost a lot more than an 18 year old salary wise.

This is all more information than I have on any other player in the draft. At what point does pretty much knowing what I'm getting with Rankine outweigh the potential greater upside in a fresh draftee, that also comes with a far greater uncertainty?

Imagine you are the giants recruiter with pick 3, and current day Rankine is in the pool. Woukd you prefer him? Or Sheezel? Or Cadman? Or Wardlaw?

Imagine you're a giants recruiter with Pick 3 and no salary cap space to fit Rankine in....

FWIW I don't think the PSD or National draft scenario will happen with Rankine, but let's not kid ourselves that if it WAS to go down the avenue that other clubs would take him early, with the personal and financial demands that he'd require.

And a 'proven performer'? He's shown glimpses of what his ceiling be, but has hardly shown consistency.
 

pushintheback

Team Captain
May 31, 2010
544
473
AFL Club
Adelaide
Sheeeeeeezel was unstoppable. Whether the ball was I50 or up the ground he was almost unstoppable. IMO he will end up being a very good mid. He's pushing his stakes for a top 3 if this form continues.
Tsatsas seems to get in all the right spots. His speed is great and hes ready to go. I know people say he doesnt have a defensive side to his game, but neither does Sheezel or Ashcroft. The only blights on his game is his kicking but an AFL club will tidy that up and Id like to see him hit the scoreboard more.
Ashcroft no more needs to be said about him. Jet!
Davey is very exciting when he gets the ball. His defensive work is actually really good. His disposals by foot were pretty good, however, he tends to burn his teammates a lot. He will need to get better at bringing his teammates into the game.
McKenzie yesterday played in bursts. But I like what i see. When he becomes more consistent throughout quarters he will have a bigger influence on games. Having said this I thought he was really good yesterday, particularly with his clearance work. Big Fan!
Hotton keeps impressing. He is really clean and generally makes good decisions. I really like Hotton. His mid craft was great but he also managed to kick a couple of snags as well.
Teal, considering he has missed a lot of footy I thought he was good. He provided some nice drive out of the D50. His touch wasnt quite there but thats to be expected when u miss so much footy. I can see why clubs like him. His athleticism is great.
Weddle, had some nice moments. I liked his 2 bounce run down the wing, and a couple of strong marks (thats his weapon). When he found himself on Sheezel he was a little uncomfortable with the match up.
Clarke had an opportunistic game. His 2 goals was what u like to see from a small/crafty forward. Taking his opportunity. Thats what separates the good small fwds. He's got some speed, I actually liked the match up when Philactides went to him as they both showed their wheels.
Creighton not sure where people have him listed but I thought he was reasonably good yesterday. To kick 3 goals was a great effort. At times he was on Teal and Weddle so 2 good backs. He hits up well and was strong below his knees. Will be keen to see how his draft plays out.
Jefferson knows how to kick goals. He didnt take a lot of marks however to have 9 disposals and kick 4.1 is a reasonable effort. One may have come from a free (Cant recall) He's the real deal and will do some damage in finals. He's a top 10.
Voulanas had 3 first half goals and was quiet after that. He's quick and his goals were exciting. I love seeing him take the game on like he did yesterday. He's definately had the blinkers on yesterday as he was keen to show the recruiters his speed. His blight is probably the depth in his kicking but a good weights program I feel could lift his game to the next level.
Drury had one of his quieter days. We all know he's a good player and will be on an AFL list in 2023. I suspect the continual transition from school to state to school to NAB is not an easy thing to manage. He kicked a clutch set shot goal. The recruiters would love seeing him take that opportunity.
Bottom Agers
Roberts
took a lot of the kick ins so the stats (13D) don't tell the story, but I thought he had a couple of nice moments exiting the D50. He's definitely an outside runner, link player. He had his hands full with Voulanas and Drury.
Ashcroft he didn't have a huge influence on the game but I like his aggression at the ball. He's Will m2. I can see him being an early pick in 2024. His disposal and decision making was sound.
Visentini was soundly beaten against O'Keefe but i like what i saw. He took a real nice grab up fwd and some of his ruck work was elite. He's lightly built as most rucks are but he will be one to watch in 2023.
Philactides was solid. Played his usual HB role using his speed to exit the D50. His kicking and decision making is elite. On a couple of occasions he was under the pump but managed to use his speed and kicking to calm the situation. Definitely a high pick in 2023.
Brown can find the footy, this has been proven week after week now. Melbourne would be loving what they see. His kicking needs a bit of work, and I suspect yesterday his confidence dropped as he started to distribute by hand more. He's quite quick as well. To be a starting mid in Oakleighs team is good sign for the Dees.
 

bird_man

Hall of Famer
Jan 14, 2012
33,039
78,858
The River Murray
AFL Club
St Kilda
G'day PMBangers

I haven't been able to pay a lot of attention to this year's crop

Last year it seemed like there was a clear top 7 or 8 before it dropped off a level

How do you see it this year?

Are the Saints in that awkward position again where they might just miss the very elite end of the draft?

Is it worth trying to trade up?
 

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
25,778
48,700
Melbourne
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
G'day PMBangers

I haven't been able to pay a lot of attention to this year's crop

Last year it seemed like there was a clear top 7 or 8 before it dropped off a level

How do you see it this year?

Are the Saints in that awkward position again where they might just miss the very elite end of the draft?

Is it worth trying to trade up?
Top 3 this year with Tsatas a possibility to push back in with good form in finals, after that I think 4/5-11 is pretty even then 11-30 is the same evenness
 

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GWS Goose

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 14, 2011
12,079
20,786
Blue Mountains
AFL Club
GWS
I've always thought about it like this:
  • it's draft night 2022
  • GCS and the Crows did not arrive at a satisfactory deal for Rankine, and Rankine has nominated for the national draft (suspending some disbelief here).
  • I am a recruiter, and I'm asking myself this question: where on my draft board should I be slotting 22 year old Isaac Rankine, with 4 years of exposed form at AFL level?

He is 4 years older, already a proven performer, hasn't quite looked like reaching his pre-draft potential, has had a poor run with injuries, will cost a lot more than an 18 year old salary wise.

This is all more information than I have on any other player in the draft. At what point does pretty much knowing what I'm getting with Rankine outweigh the potential greater upside in a fresh draftee, that also comes with a far greater uncertainty?

Imagine you are the giants recruiter with pick 3, and current day Rankine is in the pool. Woukd you prefer him? Or Sheezel? Or Cadman? Or Wardlaw?
very. very high.
 
End of Home and Away Season RMD

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
25,778
48,700
Melbourne
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
end of ha.PNG

So to celebrate the season finally being over (for me at least), thought I'd do a final RMD given it's been a while and there's been a bit of movement in my rankings through the last few weeks. I don't really think there's been a massive change of names coming in to the top 30 for most people, but there's certainly been some consolidation of the 'tiers' which has helped. Some notes from doing this;
- I don't really rate Ginbey as a top 15 prospect tbh, but it seems he's another case of high levels of athleticism being looked upon favourably, it's not to say I don't think he will be or currently is a good player of course, he had a very good champs and a consistent season, but I just don't see him as a midfielder at the next level like a lot of others do, to me he's played his role as a third tall that can lockdown super effectively much better than he's played as a midfielder, and tbh it's the sort of player Carlton need more than they need another strong bodied mid regardless.

- Having Clark go so low feels odd, but I think it's possible given the drafting profiles of the first 12 clubs selecting and where their lists are at, the unfortunate fact is as good as Clark is the athleticism will be a knock on him, whether he's seen as an Andy Brayshaw type or Hobbs type of unathletic will be interesting, but I'm leaning more towards the latter currently. Again not to say I don't think he'll be good, that's a comment purely on his draft range, and the same could be said for Szybkowski

- Similar for Jefferson dropping low, super talent but not many of the clubs selecting ahead of the Pies need a KPF now or in the short term future more than they need anything else. I of course considered him for every pick from Hawthorn onwards, but it always came back to a club not needing that sort, or being in a window to compete in finals so wanting more immediate impact.
 

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
25,778
48,700
Melbourne
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
I'm also holding off on a draft rankings update until after NAB League finals are done, but been very impressed with Coby Burgiel of late in particular and think he's another that'll be in first round contention for a couple of clubs with those later picks. I also think by looking at the combine invite lists that there'll be some good value in the late picks of the draft, some guys that have very good traits and form that only got state combine invites shocked me a bit
 

eth-dog

Tier 1 WW Player
Jan 11, 2007
111,762
69,360
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Okay, so if the draft plays out like you say in there where Essendon get McKenzie early, if we were to trade ahead of a potential Davey bid with pick 23 and then something on top, who do you think we should be taking with that?

And do you also have Munkara outside the 40?
 

Mutineer

Premium Platinum
Aug 9, 2019
29,211
51,206
Victorian Central Highlands
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
The mighty Panthers, GWV Rebels, Be
View attachment 1487403
So to celebrate the season finally being over (for me at least), thought I'd do a final RMD given it's been a while and there's been a bit of movement in my rankings through the last few weeks. I don't really think there's been a massive change of names coming in to the top 30 for most people, but there's certainly been some consolidation of the 'tiers' which has helped. Some notes from doing this;
- I don't really rate Ginbey as a top 15 prospect tbh, but it seems he's another case of high levels of athleticism being looked upon favourably, it's not to say I don't think he will be or currently is a good player of course, he had a very good champs and a consistent season, but I just don't see him as a midfielder at the next level like a lot of others do, to me he's played his role as a third tall that can lockdown super effectively much better than he's played as a midfielder, and tbh it's the sort of player Carlton need more than they need another strong bodied mid regardless.

- Having Clark go so low feels odd, but I think it's possible given the drafting profiles of the first 12 clubs selecting and where their lists are at, the unfortunate fact is as good as Clark is the athleticism will be a knock on him, whether he's seen as an Andy Brayshaw type or Hobbs type of unathletic will be interesting, but I'm leaning more towards the latter currently. Again not to say I don't think he'll be good, that's a comment purely on his draft range, and the same could be said for Szybkowski

- Similar for Jefferson dropping low, super talent but not many of the clubs selecting ahead of the Pies need a KPF now or in the short term future more than they need anything else. I of course considered him for every pick from Hawthorn onwards, but it always came back to a club not needing that sort, or being in a window to compete in finals so wanting more immediate impact.
Bailey Hunphrey that high?

I was hoping maybe he snuck through to our 2nd.

Interesting to see what Port's compo pick will be for Karl Amon?
 

Smythe

Club Legend
Mar 26, 2017
1,231
1,827
Inner Sanctum
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
GBay-WSox-Bulls-Blackhawks-LSU-UNC
View attachment 1487403
So to celebrate the season finally being over (for me at least), thought I'd do a final RMD given it's been a while and there's been a bit of movement in my rankings through the last few weeks. I don't really think there's been a massive change of names coming in to the top 30 for most people, but there's certainly been some consolidation of the 'tiers' which has helped. Some notes from doing this;
- I don't really rate Ginbey as a top 15 prospect tbh, but it seems he's another case of high levels of athleticism being looked upon favourably, it's not to say I don't think he will be or currently is a good player of course, he had a very good champs and a consistent season, but I just don't see him as a midfielder at the next level like a lot of others do, to me he's played his role as a third tall that can lockdown super effectively much better than he's played as a midfielder, and tbh it's the sort of player Carlton need more than they need another strong bodied mid regardless.

- Having Clark go so low feels odd, but I think it's possible given the drafting profiles of the first 12 clubs selecting and where their lists are at, the unfortunate fact is as good as Clark is the athleticism will be a knock on him, whether he's seen as an Andy Brayshaw type or Hobbs type of unathletic will be interesting, but I'm leaning more towards the latter currently. Again not to say I don't think he'll be good, that's a comment purely on his draft range, and the same could be said for Szybkowski

- Similar for Jefferson dropping low, super talent but not many of the clubs selecting ahead of the Pies need a KPF now or in the short term future more than they need anything else. I of course considered him for every pick from Hawthorn onwards, but it always came back to a club not needing that sort, or being in a window to compete in finals so wanting more immediate impact.
posting mine tonight too, you got in just before me. i like it
sexy the simpsons GIF
 

weltschmerz

Norm Smith Medallist
May 23, 2019
9,232
21,769
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
View attachment 1487403
So to celebrate the season finally being over (for me at least), thought I'd do a final RMD given it's been a while and there's been a bit of movement in my rankings through the last few weeks. I don't really think there's been a massive change of names coming in to the top 30 for most people, but there's certainly been some consolidation of the 'tiers' which has helped. Some notes from doing this;
- I don't really rate Ginbey as a top 15 prospect tbh, but it seems he's another case of high levels of athleticism being looked upon favourably, it's not to say I don't think he will be or currently is a good player of course, he had a very good champs and a consistent season, but I just don't see him as a midfielder at the next level like a lot of others do, to me he's played his role as a third tall that can lockdown super effectively much better than he's played as a midfielder, and tbh it's the sort of player Carlton need more than they need another strong bodied mid regardless.

- Having Clark go so low feels odd, but I think it's possible given the drafting profiles of the first 12 clubs selecting and where their lists are at, the unfortunate fact is as good as Clark is the athleticism will be a knock on him, whether he's seen as an Andy Brayshaw type or Hobbs type of unathletic will be interesting, but I'm leaning more towards the latter currently. Again not to say I don't think he'll be good, that's a comment purely on his draft range, and the same could be said for Szybkowski

- Similar for Jefferson dropping low, super talent but not many of the clubs selecting ahead of the Pies need a KPF now or in the short term future more than they need anything else. I of course considered him for every pick from Hawthorn onwards, but it always came back to a club not needing that sort, or being in a window to compete in finals so wanting more immediate impact.

George and Hayes would be a dream. Your phantoms got me reading up on George and pretty sold on him, so cheers.
 

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
25,778
48,700
Melbourne
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
Bailey Hunphrey that high?

I was hoping maybe he snuck through to our 2nd.

Interesting to see what Port's compo pick will be for Karl Amon?
I think he's a top 15 lock now tbh, for lack of a better term there's quite a few 'vanilla' types that have been occupying those spots recently and we know how much X Factor is appreciated amongst AFL clubs and fans alike, so someone that can be a bull in the midfield but also impact with strong overhead marking and scoreboard impact up forward is always going to draw eyes, and with Boak probably a couple of years from retirement and Gray already gone, i think someone that can play a bit of both their styles is going to appeal to Port, but I could even see Hawthorn and Essendon taking a punt if they're not convinced on a McKenzie/ Phillipou as dual position players.

George and Hayes would be a dream. Your phantoms got me reading up on George and pretty sold on him, so cheers.
It's true, I am incredibly convincing

Okay, so if the draft plays out like you say in there where Essendon get McKenzie early, if we were to trade ahead of a potential Davey bid with pick 23 and then something on top, who do you think we should be taking with that?

And do you also have Munkara outside the 40?
Mainly because I'm lazy I recommend you listen to the Bombercast episode I did a few weeks back, mentioned the likes of Hollands and Szybkowski as mid-first round options I think would be good for Essendon, but you could genuinely do with anyone in that bracket imo.
 

ArdentEagle

The Baron of Bourbon
Feb 12, 2008
8,138
14,857
Minor Infraction
AFL Club
West Coast
I'm also holding off on a draft rankings update until after NAB League finals are done, but been very impressed with Coby Burgiel of late in particular and think he's another that'll be in first round contention for a couple of clubs with those later picks. I also think by looking at the combine invite lists that there'll be some good value in the late picks of the draft, some guys that have very good traits and form that only got state combine invites shocked me a bit
Hey Bangers...Would you say this is a deep draft then?
Overall, how strong would you rate it?

(sorry if this has been asked before mate - I've read lots a varied opinions)
 

PMBangers

@Headless approved!
Nov 7, 2017
25,778
48,700
Melbourne
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Manchester City, Collingwood AFLW
Hey Bangers...Would you say this is a deep draft then?
Overall, how strong would you rate it?

(sorry if this has been asked before mate - I've read lots a varied opinions)
I'll cautiously say yes because I like a lot of players I don't think will get picked in the end, and the players I expect to be picked ahead of them aren't necessarily guys I think are likely to make it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of those draft years where a few good mature age recruits get picked up from in a few years time, a lot of prospects with one or two elite traits but pretty average every else that I think will benefit from state league footy to come back into frame
 

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