Draft Expert PMBangers' (and ‘friends’) 2022 Draft Board

[Shadow89]

I am fairly confident this won't happen

Why's that?

EDIT: Also, have you heard that we're interested in McKenzie?

 

[master bate]

Am I wrong in being a bit uninspired at what's available at the Dees first pick this year? Is there anything quality wise that we would really want? I'm feeling okay with us when flipping this year's first for next year if possible, nothing screams out at me at the moment. Maybe I'm just pessimistic but we need a key forward and there's nothing really that solves our issues at our pick, as Jefferson seems too slight to have a real impact any time soon.

Always feels like there’s a drop in the draft talent just before our pick. I bet every fan feels that way.

But hey there’s every chance a top 10 guy falls. Or JT just takes a bolter from deep in the order.

I don’t think Jefferson will be the priority either, look for a versatile mid with some speed.

 

[PMBangers]

Why's that?

EDIT: Also, have you heard that we're interested in McKenzie?

I don't really subscribe to the theory that a club would reach for a player because they're related to a player already on their list, it'd be nice sentimentally but Ollie isn't really in that rung of prospects around there and Gold Coast aren't really a club to move away from their talent order

And no

 

[Shack18]

Do you think Cooper Harvey will get bid on?
cheers

 

[PMBangers]

Do you think Cooper Harvey will get bid on?
cheers

Somewhere in the 50's onwards maybe, but I can also realistically see him going through to a rookie selection. He's got some nice traits and players that can take contested marks are always ones clubs like, but there's nothing about him that suggests he's going in the first two rounds

 

[weltschmerz]

Bangers giving GWS four small forwards: I am unbiased

 

[PMBangers]

Bangers giving GWS four small forwards: I am unbiased

 

[pushintheback]

I am fairly confident this won't happen

I can't remember who's board i posted on yesterday but I think Hollands will land at GC. IMO there is little to no difference from pick GC's first pick to pick 14. But what do i know

I also think Jefferson will go top 10. There are a few KPF in next years draft that look good, but you've gotta grab em when they're available is my theory. I can't remember who said it, but Jefferson to Geelong if Clark is not available is not a stupid option.

 

[Rusty Beam]

No-one interstate would touch Jhye Clark given both his affiliation with Collingwood and Geelong

I hope we’re not completely at the stage where clubs can only draft players who are either supporters or local residents.

 

[GWS Goose]

I hope we’re not completely at the stage where clubs can only draft players who are either supporters or local residents.

It is closer to that than I would like

 

[Shadow89]

I hope we’re not completely at the stage where clubs can only draft players who are either supporters or local residents.

I honestly hope so too...but it feels like it's going that way. I've said multiple times on multiple boards that I could actually deal with bringing zones back - as we only want Geelong Falcons these days anyway, haha.

TK and J. Clark back to WA in consecutive years for us, with Jackson and O'Meara for Freo this year, Rankine and JHF back to SA - it really is zones without zones right now - not just players heading back to Vic.

Some stick around, but ultimately, clubs are relentless in chasing players using the 'go home factor.' I think clubs are getting better at recognizing it early, but it is something that will continue to get worse. For mine, the only way around the Vic pull home, is to stop having big footy events solely concentrated in Melbourne (the home of footy as commentators designate it) - and allow other states to host GF's, Anzac Day, Dreamtime etc.

Even WA and SA have that pull, due to their intense rivalries. Brisbane is attractive given their success on recent times, but won't last id they drop down the ladder again.

The whole thing is a mess to be honest - and sometimes I think academy zones would be preferable to the farce we have right now. Some clubs have already figured this out - like us, GC, Sydney, Freo and WC - who just draft players from their way/trade for players who want to come home.

The AFL could fix it, but there's too much financial incentive and not enough care about the equity of the comp to bother trying.

 

[Headless]

Good thread. Thanks Bangers. Interesting insights.

 

[blueiris]

Chances that Ashcroft drops to pick 4 and gets bid by Essendon would that be 1500 off 2441 leaving 941 and say a bid at 12 from the Bulldogs still leaving points

 

[pushintheback]

I honestly hope so too...but it feels like it's going that way. I've said multiple times on multiple boards that I could actually deal with bringing zones back - as we only want Geelong Falcons these days anyway, haha.

TK and J. Clark back to WA in consecutive years for us, with Jackson and O'Meara for Freo this year, Rankine and JHF back to SA - it really is zones without zones right now - not just players heading back to Vic.

Some stick around, but ultimately, clubs are relentless in chasing players using the 'go home factor.' I think clubs are getting better at recognizing it early, but it is something that will continue to get worse. For mine, the only way around the Vic pull home, is to stop having big footy events solely concentrated in Melbourne (the home of footy as commentators designate it) - and allow other states to host GF's, Anzac Day, Dreamtime etc.

Even WA and SA have that pull, due to their intense rivalries. Brisbane is attractive given their success on recent times, but won't last id they drop down the ladder again.

The whole thing is a mess to be honest - and sometimes I think academy zones would be preferable to the farce we have right now. Some clubs have already figured this out - like us, GC, Sydney, Freo and WC - who just draft players from their way/trade for players who want to come home.

The AFL could fix it, but there's too much financial incentive and not enough care about the equity of the comp to bother trying.

Maybe its time to think about things a little differently. For example if Freo are keen on say Wardlaw there is an opportunity for Wardlaw to train at Freo for a week or 2 so they can get a feel for the club etc. I know this is open to academy players but maybe clubs should have some flexibility in who they ask to train with them. Also, the AFL really needs to look at ways interstate clubs can get families to their state on a regular basis. I know of a family that their kid was playing interstate but didn't have the funds to go watch very often. So the player got homesick. I get there is a salary cap but I agree with McCartney the draft is different for interstate clubs.

 

[the big lebowski]

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with my views on Wardlaw vs Tsatas (or Wardlaw more generally)

Wardlaw

• low accumulation (seems a low 20’s at best based on production)
• low versatility (he he impacted anywhere but the guts?)
• ok footskills (neat but not great)
• relatively low clearance numbers for a contested beast at the contest (ave 3 clearances per game this year)
• poor endurance
• seems that even in his best performances he’s gone missing for periods of games
• 3 hamstrings in a year
• no champs games this year

• manic attack on the footy
• very quick out of stoppage

Vs Tsatas

• exceptional accumulation
• exceptional line breaking (maybe hasn’t been displayed as often as it could)
• better clearance numbers than Wardlaw
• better endurance than Wardlaw
• more scoreboard impact than Wardlaw
• showed even after a 3 month layoff that he can still play well even when nowhere near full fitness

• poor defensively
• not a “strong” player
• kicking fluctuates between very good and poor

Main point, what makes Wardlaw rated so high. I just don’t see it. Has he ever played a game like Rowell did in the finals for oakleigh? JHF smokes him for mine on production before their careers have started. I’d argue Phillips had produced more as an underage than Wardlaw did in his games this year.

What am I missing?

 

[No SPIN]

For Ashcroft, I see Wardlaw as having a higher ceiling without a significantly lower floor from their performances, and even then I feel like if Wardlaw had gotten to play more we'd be arguing he was a safer selection than Ashcroft. You can see the two go head-to-head by rewatching the first Sandringham v Oakleigh clash from the NAB League this year, but it terms of effort, competiveness, explosiveness, contested game and defensive game Wardlaw has Ashcroft beat, and I'd argue that their disposal isn't drastically different either. Ashcroft is silkier however and more dangerous on the outside and in offensive play, it's really a Clayton Oliver v Sam Walsh type of match up in a way, they're both really good players, and a lot of it comes down to preference, but as a pure match winner those contested types that can lay a game saving tackle just as easily as they can gather a game winning clearance are the ones you look for first.

For JHF, their midfield play is pretty similar and ultimately I feel like Wardlaw is just better in most areas involved there, particularly his tackling and again defensive game in general. I don't have testing results for either, but Wardlaw appears more powerful in general as well


There's a bit of that going around, and as I've said I don't think it's a 'bad' draft really, it's just a bit vanilla in the type of players available, and when looking ahead to next years crop, whilst early on the X-Factor there is exciting and probably makes 2022 feel a bit worse than what it really is. Jefferson will be one right around the range of your pick, and whilst he has his concerns I think he's a really solid prospect for a KPF, if that's what you're after then there's not much to not be excited about with him. He will likely take some time, but for Melbourne in particular it seems JVR is good to go from early on next season at least.

I'd also be cautious about trading into the future for specific types of players, there's a couple of good KPP options in next years first round as it stands, but like we saw with Lemmey this year it can change a lot in the space of 12 months

Sorry if this has been asked before but why has Lemmey fallen behind Jefferson?
Lemmey has the body and size to play much earlier than Jefferson.
And how do you rank Keeler in this group.

 

[PocketRocket08]

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with my views on Wardlaw vs Tsatas (or Wardlaw more generally)

Wardlaw

• low accumulation (seems a low 20’s at best based on production)
• low versatility (he he impacted anywhere but the guts?)
• ok footskills (neat but not great)
• relatively low clearance numbers for a contested beast at the contest (ave 3 clearances per game this year)
• poor endurance
• seems that even in his best performances he’s gone missing for periods of games
• 3 hamstrings in a year
• no champs games this year

• manic attack on the footy
• very quick out of stoppage

Vs Tsatas

• exceptional accumulation
• exceptional line breaking (maybe hasn’t been displayed as often as it could)
• better clearance numbers than Wardlaw
• better endurance than Wardlaw
• more scoreboard impact than Wardlaw
• showed even after a 3 month layoff that he can still play well even when nowhere near full fitness

• poor defensively
• not a “strong” player
• kicking fluctuates between very good and poor

Main point, what makes Wardlaw rated so high. I just don’t see it. Has he ever played a game like Rowell did in the finals for oakleigh? JHF smokes him for mine on production before their careers have started. I’d argue Phillips had produced more as an underage than Wardlaw did in his games this year.

What am I missing?

Accumulation is so over rated

 

[Sky]

Let me preface this by saying that I absolutely love, love, love that you have us getting McKenzie, as he's the player I want most - even ahead of Clark.

With that said, really surprised you don't have Ollie Hollands going to GC - given I'd say he's a near guarantee for them, IMO.

No-one interstate would touch Jhye Clark given both his affiliation with Collingwood and Geelong, so I'd be surprised if a club like GC went him over Hollands who definitely wants to play with his brother.

Rest of your Top 10 though, are exactly the same as mine, with McKenzie going to Carlton, Clark to us and Hollands to GC

Reckon that Essendon is the big wildcard, and I can see them selecting Humphrey given he's that big bodied mid they've been crying out for - which means Tsatas goes to the Hawks, Hollands to GC and Clark to us.

If Essendon choose Tsatas, then there's a really strong chance Hawks will go Clark...but then hopefully we'd go McKenzie, haha.

Awesome work as always though!

Why McKenzie? I want Busslinger because Selwood rates him and I know nothing about him either

 

[the big lebowski]

Accumulation is so over rated

Agree to an extent but show me the last midfielder that won a Brownlow averaging 20 possessions a game

 

[PocketRocket08]

Agree to an extent but show me the last midfielder that won a Brownlow averaging 20 possessions a game

Who cares about Brownlows…. Dusty is only player to win a Brownlow and premiership in 15 years. The game is changing to more forward style. Wardlaw is A grade. He is a bull and once afl fit will be a star. No doub

 

[the big lebowski]

Who cares about Brownlows…. Dusty is only player to win a Brownlow and premiership in 15 years. The game is changing to more forward style. Wardlaw is A grade. He is a bull and once afl fit will be a star. No doub

Ok but can you tell me why? Can you use a metric or point to a game that makes you say that so definitively?

 

[PMBangers]

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills with my views on Wardlaw vs Tsatas (or Wardlaw more generally)

Wardlaw

• low accumulation (seems a low 20’s at best based on production)
• low versatility (he he impacted anywhere but the guts?)
• ok footskills (neat but not great)
• relatively low clearance numbers for a contested beast at the contest (ave 3 clearances per game this year)
• poor endurance
• seems that even in his best performances he’s gone missing for periods of games
• 3 hamstrings in a year
• no champs games this year
• manic attack on the footy
• very quick out of stoppage

Vs Tsatas

• exceptional accumulation
• exceptional line breaking (maybe hasn’t been displayed as often as it could)
• better clearance numbers than Wardlaw
• better endurance than Wardlaw
• more scoreboard impact than Wardlaw
• showed even after a 3 month layoff that he can still play well even when nowhere near full fitness

• poor defensively
• not a “strong” player
• kicking fluctuates between very good and poor

Main point, what makes Wardlaw rated so high. I just don’t see it. Has he ever played a game like Rowell did in the finals for oakleigh? JHF smokes him for mine on production before their careers have started. I’d argue Phillips had produced more as an underage than Wardlaw did in his games this year.

What am I missing?

You can just as easily make an overly critical list on Tsatas and an overly favourable list for Wardlaw tbf. I think Wardlaw ultimately has a more trasnferable skill set to the next level, contested beasts with the drive Wardlaw has very rarely 'fail' to make a transition to AFL, add on to that the exceptional defensive work rate and I think he's going to be an asset regardless of the side he ends up at. Tsatas also has some outstanding traits, and I don't think he's going to be a bust, but being predominantly outside I think a lot is going to depend on where he ends up and who is feeding the abll out to him from congestion. That's not to talk down his inside craft, I just think he's far more valuable on the outside currently.

If you look through the draft board, you'll see plenty with the same "How's he rated so highly" comments about Tsatas, at the end of the day it's a matter of opinion and preference

Sorry if this has been asked before but why has Lemmey fallen behind Jefferson?
Lemmey has the body and size to play much earlier than Jefferson.
And how do you rank Keeler in this group.

Lemmey has the body and size but doesn't use it, in direct comparison to Jefferson who is a lot slimmer but can actually take contested marks consistently it's not hard to see why one is being spoken about as a first rounder and one is more likely at the back end of the second round or early third

Keeler is hard to place, his best is top 5 worthy no doubt, but a tendency to fade in and out of games, as well as what can come across as a lack of drive, mean he's looking like a 'boom or bust' pick. I doubt he lasts past 30 because of his upside and high end traits, but I can see the concerns stopping him from going top 20

 

[the big lebowski]

You can just as easily make an overly critical list on Tsatas and an overly favourable list for Wardlaw tbf. I think Wardlaw ultimately has a more trasnferable skill set to the next level, contested beasts with the drive Wardlaw has very rarely 'fail' to make a transition to AFL, add on to that the exceptional defensive work rate and I think he's going to be an asset regardless of the side he ends up at. Tsatas also has some outstanding traits, and I don't think he's going to be a bust, but being predominantly outside I think a lot is going to depend on where he ends up and who is feeding the abll out to him from congestion. That's not to talk down his inside craft, I just think he's far more valuable on the outside currently.

If you look through the draft board, you'll see plenty with the same "How's he rated so highly" comments about Tsatas, at the end of the day it's a matter of opinion and preference

I know that many downplay tsatas, and everyone seems to universally talk up Wardlaw. Hence why I feel I’m taking crazy pills.

You say Wardlaw or more a contested player than tsatas, yet Tsatas averages more contested possessions and clearances than Wardlaw.

I did list lack of defensive game as a con against tsatas. I don’t think any of the top players are without flaw. But I just can’t see any identifiable statistical metric, or see anyone point to an actual game that shows that Wardlaw should be spoken about in the same breath as JHF, Rowell, Walsh, daicos, or even guys like Phillips, Tsatas, etc.

All I hear is a general sense of how he plays.

 

[PMBangers]

I know that many downplay tsatas, and everyone seems to universally talk up Wardlaw. Hence why I feel I’m taking crazy pills.

You say Wardlaw or more a contested player than tsatas, yet Tsatas averages more contested possessions and clearances than Wardlaw.

I did list lack of defensive game as a con against tsatas. I don’t think any of the top players are without flaw. But I just can’t see any identifiable statistical metric, or see anyone point to an actual game that shows that Wardlaw should be spoken about in the same breath as JHF, Rowell, Walsh, daicos, or even guys like Phillips, Tsatas, etc.

All I hear is a general sense of how he plays.

I mean that's another issue on it's own, if that were the main impact on draft rankings we could just set up computers to do it all. In all honesty stats don't bother me all that much, it's nice data to have to put some context into what you're seeing, but I feel as if it becomes too easy from there to make it a focal point.

Round 1 in the NAB League is a game where Wardlaw outshined Tsatas to me, Tsatas probably had more of it but the early stages of the game, when it was most competitive, it was Wardlaw that was setting the tone and helping Oakleigh get those little advantages and started that snowball effect for them. If you don't agree, all good, as I said it's a matter of opinion outside of stats, what people see and feel is ultimately what makes these rankings.

 

[No SPIN]

You can just as easily make an overly critical list on Tsatas and an overly favourable list for Wardlaw tbf. I think Wardlaw ultimately has a more trasnferable skill set to the next level, contested beasts with the drive Wardlaw has very rarely 'fail' to make a transition to AFL, add on to that the exceptional defensive work rate and I think he's going to be an asset regardless of the side he ends up at. Tsatas also has some outstanding traits, and I don't think he's going to be a bust, but being predominantly outside I think a lot is going to depend on where he ends up and who is feeding the abll out to him from congestion. That's not to talk down his inside craft, I just think he's far more valuable on the outside currently.

If you look through the draft board, you'll see plenty with the same "How's he rated so highly" comments about Tsatas, at the end of the day it's a matter of opinion and preference


Lemmey has the body and size but doesn't use it, in direct comparison to Jefferson who is a lot slimmer but can actually take contested marks consistently it's not hard to see why one is being spoken about as a first rounder and one is more likely at the back end of the second round or early third

Keeler is hard to place, his best is top 5 worthy no doubt, but a tendency to fade in and out of games, as well as what can come across as a lack of drive, mean he's looking like a 'boom or bust' pick. I doubt he lasts past 30 because of his upside and high end traits, but I can see the concerns stopping him from going top 20

Thanks mate- very enlightening