Polls Thread Mk III

[Maggie5]

Someone pointed out that the age agenda changes because the things that matter change. ie the young dont have any material possessions so its social based agendas and as you get older and acquire meaningful possessions ie house , family (some see them as possessions) and jobs etc then the agendas change with those

The need/desire to maintain your own personal status quo infects our voting

Interestingly the group we came with and my family (as did I) always voted Liberal. Job opportunities galore, ability to buy a home, save and educate the children, go on holidays etc.

Now that we are all comfortable as boomers, and see what is happening with fewer jobs, inability for many to get into the housing market, climate change and apart from superannuation difficult to save etc, (I know in my case these are the things that concern me about the future of young people and families) more than half vote either Labor or greens.

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[NSWCROW]

Encouraging

 

[NSWCROW]

 

[Forward Press]

It was a week where Morrison did nothing controversial of note. Libs need more of that.

We can complain about the Fatman Scoop video but in reality it's an issue that matters little to the broader voting public.

 

[NTRabbit]

It was a week where Morrison did nothing controversial of note. Libs need more of that.

We can complain about the Fatman Scoop video but in reality it's an issue that matters little to the broader voting public.

Boomer voters don't even know it happened. Their carrot this week is the proposed Royal Commission into aged care, because having voted time and again to gut from under their parents in favour of lining their own pockets, suddenly they see their own time looming, and are looking to suck the money away from Gen Y and Z to fix it back up for themselves again.

 

[NTRabbit]

Also there's something wrong with the Ipsos primary numbers, ergo the 2pp can't be trusted either

 

[RobbieK]

Why isn't it plausible?

At the last election the primary vote was:

LNP: 42
ALP: 34.7
Green: 10.2
Other: 13.1

Both major parties are down on their primary votes. Then LNP by a lot, the ALP by a little. At a time of serious disatisfaction with both that isn't so surprising. The polls are suggesting that rather than one of the major parties losing primary votes to the other they are both losing them to minor parties. That would be in line with the trend line over the past few elections:

I suspect that the election will again see minor parties do better than ever before, though probably not quite as good as the current polls have them - I think as we get closer to an actually election there will be a bit of a return back to the majors on the current numbers.

Looking at the 2PP, let's say that 80% of Greens votes will go to the ALP (that's historically what has happened: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826).

Taking out the Greens then gives you 2PP numbers of this:

LNP: 37%
ALP: 43%

At the last election all the other minor parties combined split pretty close to 50/50... which brings you to:

LNP: 47%
ALP: 53%

Which, wouldn't you know it, happens to be the 2PP result from the Ipsos poll!

 

[GreyCrow]

Why isn't it plausible?

At the last election the primary vote was:

LNP: 42
ALP: 34.7
Green: 10.2
Other: 13.1

Both major parties are down on their primary votes. Then LNP by a lot, the ALP by a little. At a time of serious disatisfaction with both that isn't so surprising. The polls are suggesting that rather than one of the major parties losing primary votes to the other they are both losing them to minor parties. That would be in line with the trend line over the past few elections:

I suspect that the election will again see minor parties do better than ever before, though probably not quite as good as the current polls have them - I think as we get closer to an actually election there will be a bit of a return back to the majors on the current numbers.

I agree there is a steady rise.

Yet studying that the dips and rises in the MP line coincide with the ALP dips and rises.

The 3 peaks for the MPs is 1977 , 1990 and 1998. 1977 the LNP vote also rose suggesting a disastrous Labor Party and that was true (yet LNP lost 5 seats)

1990 both parties dipped . LNP not as much but they did.

1998 this time the opposite to 1977 occurred. LNP dipped , Labor rose. This was the GST election and the LNP lost the 2PP.

The rise and rise of the independents and protest parties should rise above 25% in the next election. I think Labor though shall gain

 

[Baltimore Jack]

On those figures, and taking into account of a few seat by seat fluctuations, it would be about a 23 seat majority to the ALP

 

[Crankyhawk]

I have only ever been polled on a landline.

This is just my own experience, however it is natural to suggest that this would tend to distort responses towards older demographics if it is true. There is no doubt that more and more younger people do not have a landline.

I had a robo poll call to my mobile recently (for Vic state election) so suggests that they are going beyond landlines.

 

[GoldenSky]

Not a peep from Fairfax about the fact their Ipsos poll has the Libs increasing their primary vote after the change in leader. Instead, all about Morrison slightly less better against Shorten in Preferred PM (the fact Morrison who is shouty and unlikeable is actually ahead is way more newsworthy!).

 

[Pessimistic]

Not a peep from Fairfax about the fact their Ipsos poll has the Libs increasing their primary vote after the change in leader. Instead, all about Morrison slightly less better against Shorten in Preferred PM (the fact Morrison who is shouty and unlikeable is actually ahead is way more newsworthy!).

Libs in the poo, the only argument is how deep

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Victorian Election Latest Polling

Galaxy Poll

First Preference:
ALP 42 (+4),
Greens 10,
Libs 35 (-2),
Nats 5,
PHON 4 (-1),
Other/independent 4

2PP:
ALP 53 (+2)
Coalition 47 (-2)

Seats Won Predictor:
Labor 48 seats
Coalition 36 seats
Greens 3 seats
Independent 1 seat

 

[Dry Rot]

Victorian Election Latest Polling

Galaxy Poll

First Preference:
ALP 42 (+4),
Greens 10,
Libs 35 (-2),
Nats 5,
PHON 4 (-1),
Other/independent 4

2PP:
ALP 53 (+2)
Coalition 47 (-2)

Seats Won Predictor:
Labor 48 seats
Coalition 36 seats
Greens 3 seats
Independent 1 seat

Sudanese gangs are stealing the Liberal primary vote!

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Federal election betting update:
Best available odds:
Labor $1.30
Coalition $3.30

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Forward Press]

That Victorian result is absurd. When is the state election there? Could be ominous for ScoMo and his buddies.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

That Victorian result is absurd. When is the state election there? Could be ominous for ScoMo and his buddies.

Late November

 

[Benny78]

Are there any polls on Wentworth? Can't believe we've got to wait another 4 weeks.

 

[Dry Rot]

Increasing evidence of the stupidity of Australians.

Latest Newspoll 46-54. Coalition primary up 2 to 36%, ALP down 3 to 39%

 

[Holden Hillbilly]

This fortnight’s Newspoll result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, after the Scott Morrison era began with successive results of 56-44. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (up two), Labor 39% (down three), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady).

Movement also to the Coalition’s advantage on personal rating: Scott Morrison is up three on approval to 44% and steady on disapproval at 39%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down five to 32% and up three to 54%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 42-36 to 45-32.

 

[Pessimistic]

Primary changes but TPP does not?

As for Morrison maybe people appreciate his selfless career suicide

 

[GreyCrow]

Morrison is hitting the points most people feel comfortable about

Law , education and borders