Polls Thread Mk III

[Gough]

This DD has the potential to go down as one the bigger missteps in Australian political history. At worst the Libs could lose government, at best they are likely to be faced a much more hostile parliament than the last one.

 

[swingdog]

Seat-by-seat polls continue to pour in. This one has a decent sample size (1600)

Batman, VIC, Lonergan Research
Primaries:
ALP: 28 (-13)
Greens: 41 (+15)

2PP (Respondent allocated):
ALP: 45 (-16)
Greens: 55 (+16)

Have you seen anything from Wills?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Have you seen anything from Wills?

There is this (apparently the source of the Richmond poll I posted earlier, only ~310 respondents ):

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6...en-at-federal-election-july-2016-201606171633

Has ALP and Greens on 34.5 each, Liberals on 22.0 in Wills.

Then again, the same set of polling has Turnbull losing Wentworth

 

[swingdog]

Thanks, you'd think even if it is accurate Lib preferences are going to flow to Labor.

 

[LeakyValve]

Seeya, Feeney.

Amen to that brother.

He does seem to be an average bloke.

Similarly, even though I am rusted on Labor, I completed every senate box in the 2013
election just to place Joe Bullock last.

Pointless exercise but childishly satisfying.

At times, it appears Labor has almost as many duds as the Libs.

 

[pjcrows]

Amen to that brother.

He does seem to be an average bloke.

Similarly, even though I am rusted on Labor, I completed every senate box in the 2013
election just to place Joe Bullock last.

Pointless exercise but childishly satisfying.

At times, it appears Labor has almost as many duds as the Libs.

They do.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

They do.

I don't know about the backbenchers (who does? Bar all the ones that have been sacked or pushed back by controversies/leadership changes), but when it comes to senior members the Liberals have way more duds than Labor by far. Most of them were around under Abbott.

 

[Maggie5]

Have you seen anything from Wills?

Are you in Wills? That is also my electorate.
Interesting candidates in Greens - Samantha Ratman (did she resign as Mayor?) and also the ex SBS executive Peter Khalil (Labor).
Lots of young families and people renovating or building new homes in Pascoe Vale South, so can see majority held by Thomson being reduced.
Perhaps this time my HOR vote may make a difference.

 

[swingdog]

Are you in Wills? That is also my electorate.
Interesting candidates in Greens - Samantha Ratman (did she resign as Mayor?) and also the ex SBS executive Peter Khalil (Labor).
Lots of young families and people renovating or building new homes in Pascoe Vale South, so can see majority held by Thomson being reduced.
Perhaps this time my HOR vote may make a difference.

I am - I know Sam Ratnam through work, so was interested to see how she's tracking.

 

[swingdog]

Essential 51-49 to ALP.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Morgan - Division of Richmond, NSW
ALP: 31 (-3)
Greens: 29 (+11)
Nationals: 28 (-11)

Seat is currently held by Labor on a 1.6% margin vs. Nationals

Seat-by-seat polls continue to pour in. This one has a decent sample size (1600)

Batman, VIC, Lonergan Research
Primaries:
ALP: 28 (-13)
Greens: 41 (+15)

2PP (Respondent allocated):
ALP: 45 (-16)
Greens: 55 (+16)

The question has to be asked - Is this the end of the Greens?

 

[Adz]

Is Higgins actually going to fall to the Greens? I thought it was just going to be a big swing but not enough to turf out ODwyer?

 

[Footy Smarts]

Is Higgins actually going to fall to the Greens? I thought it was just going to be a big swing but not enough to turf out ODwyer?

Highly unlikely to fall this time. Realistically in the lower house the Greens would be hoping to pick up Batman and then move much closer in a bunch of other seats with Higgins being one. They almost certainly won't pick it up this time but if they take 2nd place of Labor and get within a 55-45 margin they'll be within striking distance for next time.

 

[LeakyValve]

I don't know about the backbenchers (who does? Bar all the ones that have been sacked or pushed back by controversies/leadership changes), but when it comes to senior members the Liberals have way more duds than Labor by far. Most of them were around under Abbott.

Very true Ratts.

I should have qualified my observation as the gap in front bench quality is considerable and patent.

Labor hopefuls however like Tammy Solonec in Swan don't help the cause.

With the current mood in the west, this seat with a strong candidate would be right in the mix but
behaviour like publicly calling out, among other things, the current member (Steve Irons) as a rich, white man is silly.

This may be true (as it happens the bloke is also a goose) but it is ill-disciplined acts like this that will cause undecideds to groan
and it also brings into question, the quality of candidates.

Anyway, enough from me as this probably a discussion for another thread.

 

[LeakyValve]

By the way, I recall a poster stating polling is showing Turnbull is possibly looking down the barrel.

Is this true or just mischief making?

If true, could it be a case of true believer Abbotites switching allegiances to the Greens or others out of sheer spite?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

By the way, I recall a poster stating polling is showing Turnbull is possibly looking down the barrel.

Is this true or just mischief making?

If true, could it be a case of true believer Abbotites switching allegiances to the Greens or others out of sheer spite?

See my post just up the page

I think it says more about seat polls if anything. Turnbull might get a big swing against him for dithering on SSM (his electorate has the highest proportion of LGBT people) and climate change, but any suggestion if him being dumped by his electorate is utterly fanciful.

 

[LeakyValve]

See my post just up the page

I think it says more about seat polls if anything. Turnbull might get a big swing against him for dithering on SSM (his electorate has the highest proportion of LGBT people) and climate change, but any suggestion if him being dumped by his electorate is utterly fanciful.

You tease you.

And a Brian the Lion too.

 

[Adz]

Is there any way Labor can win outright?

 

[Showbags]

By the way, I recall a poster stating polling is showing Turnbull is possibly looking down the barrel.

Is this true or just mischief making?

If true, could it be a case of true believer Abbotites switching allegiances to the Greens or others out of sheer spite?

No chance the rabid frothing Abbottites would vote greens. They would jump ship to one of the other right wing nutter parties like family first.

 

[pjcrows]

Is there any way Labor can win outright?

Of course there's a way. It's about a 1% chance though. I can't see it happening.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Is there any way Labor can win outright?

There have been several elections recently where polls and betting markets prior to an election were very wrong, both in Australia at State level and in the UK at their last Federal election. If you've had your eye caught by the odds on Labor, they are incorrect. There was a dive at around the same time Turnbull said that he would win (probably more to do with the tactics of trying to make the public get on-board a winner, rather than any true confidence). I think Labor are at $6 with some bookies and it should realistically be more like $3-$3.50.

 

[GreyCrow]

There have been several elections recently where polls and betting markets prior to an election were very wrong, both in Australia at State level and in the UK at their last Federal election. If you've had your eye caught by the odds on Labor, they are incorrect. There was a dive at around the same time Turnbull said that he would win (probably more to do with the tactics of trying to make the public get on-board a winner, rather than any true confidence). I think Labor are at $6 with some bookies and it should realistically be more like $3-$3.50.

But its been consistently above $4.00. The Liberals have finally woken up to Mike Rann and Jay Weatherill tactics of targeting the marginals and letting the ''safe seats'' slump.

 

[Juddism]

Are you in Wills? That is also my electorate.
Interesting candidates in Greens - Samantha Ratman (did she resign as Mayor?) and also the ex SBS executive Peter Khalil (Labor).
Lots of young families and people renovating or building new homes in Pascoe Vale South, so can see majority held by Thomson being reduced.
Perhaps this time my HOR vote may make a difference.

me too...has Samantha done anything of note whilst being Mayor? I wish I lived in Higgins because I'd vote for Jason Ball.

 

[Juddism]

Seat-by-seat polls continue to pour in. This one has a decent sample size (1600)

Batman, VIC, Lonergan Research
Primaries:
ALP: 28 (-13)
Greens: 41 (+15)

2PP (Respondent allocated):
ALP: 45 (-16)
Greens: 55 (+16)

sample size isn't even 1% of the enrolled voters..mind you, it's a very "hip" electorate and it falling to the greens wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Maggie5]

me too...has Samantha done anything of note whilst being Mayor? I wish I lived in Higgins because I'd vote for Jason Ball.

Not that I can recall, don't always read the local paper.
On the other hand, my dealings with Thomson weren't that encouraging. Glad he is gone.