Polls Thread Mk III

[Ratts of Tobruk]

But its been consistently above $4.00. The Liberals have finally woken up to Mike Rann and Jay Weatherill tactics of targeting the marginals and letting the ''safe seats'' slump.

It hasn't actually. I think it even dropped under $3 before there were some big plunges on the Liberals (which I suspect where from Liberal-supporters as nothing had happened poll-wise or election-wise to warrant them).

 

[Play by Numbers]

But its been consistently above $4.00. The Liberals have finally woken up to Mike Rann and Jay Weatherill tactics of targeting the marginals and letting the ''safe seats'' slump.

This is true to a degree, but we have no idea if it will work.

Polling in Australia is not as unpredictable as the UK, but still often unreliable. Betting markets likewise. At least recently.

The reason for this is a period of political and generational change in both nations, likewise phone polling is not representative and internet polling not reliable.

Where the US is differenet, is that they have a huge number of elections, thus big samples. Likewise, very accurate demographic breakdowns. Which is worrying that gender, age, race, and geography can be accurately used top predict voting. Why polling was not accurate this primaries was because primary season is sort of an exception, given the oddness of some state rules, likewise demographic models were still very accurate, it's just that many polling experts have strayed towards other analytic models. 538 would regularly talk about this, when their models or betting markets didn't work out.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

NSW Marginals, ReachTel
Dobell:
L/NP: 47 (-3)
ALP: 53 (+3)

Lindsay:
L/NP: 46 (-7)
ALP: 54 (+7)

Macquarie:
L/NP: 46 (-8.5)
ALP: 54 (+8.5)

Eden-Monaro:
L/NP: 45 (-8)
ALP: 55 (+8)

 

[Pessimistic]

NSW Marginals, ReachTel
Dobell:
L/NP: 47 (-3)
ALP: 53 (+3)

Lindsay:
L/NP: 46 (-7)
ALP: 54 (+7)

Macquarie:
L/NP: 46 (-8.5)
ALP: 54 (+8.5)

Eden-Monaro:
L/NP: 45 (-8)
ALP: 55 (+8)

Some substantial swings there

 

[pjcrows]

NSW Marginals, ReachTel
Dobell:
L/NP: 47 (-3)
ALP: 53 (+3)

Lindsay:
L/NP: 46 (-7)
ALP: 54 (+7)

Macquarie:
L/NP: 46 (-8.5)
ALP: 54 (+8.5)

Eden-Monaro:
L/NP: 45 (-8)
ALP: 55 (+8)

Woah...

 

[Footy Smarts]

Seat based polling is generally not very accurate but if those swings hold that's ALP majority territory. NSW is supposed to be where they're struggling to really get the swing too.

A hung parliament is a real possibility too. Only Palmer will lose his seat but Batman, New England, Cowper and a few SA seats are a chance to go from the major parties.

 

[swingdog]

If those NSW seats go, what does that do for the make-up of parliament?

 

[Gough]

If those NSW seats go, what does that do for the make-up of parliament?

Might explain the somewhat hysterical posturing of the government on border control today.

 

[Number37]

Might explain the somewhat hysterical posturing of the government on border control today.

Looks like it won't matter if the voters are preparing their baseball bats, which those numbers suggest.

 

[Pessimistic]

Well the coalition did replace an elected pm, something they were hysterically critical of when labor did it

 

[ep2018]

The country is better off if the libs are destroyed this election. Gives them a chance to wipe the slate clean and to reform. Hopefully a few of their right wingers get wiped out too. Tho it probably means Shorten will be PM for 2 terms or more... not much of a fan of ol shortcake.

 

[pazza]

NSW Marginals, ReachTel
Dobell:
L/NP: 47 (-3)
ALP: 53 (+3)

Lindsay:
L/NP: 46 (-7)
ALP: 54 (+7)

Macquarie:
L/NP: 46 (-8.5)
ALP: 54 (+8.5)

Eden-Monaro:
L/NP: 45 (-8)
ALP: 55 (+8)

Shows that there is not a lot of uniformity in the swing..but anyswing over 5% is massive.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

If the media treated the Liberal Party as the one organisation it is, and linked their long-list of dodgy dealings together, they would be voted out.

• The Free Enterprise Foundation,
• Parakeelia,
• Sinodinos (promoted by Turnbull),
• $1.5M missing in Victoria,
• North Sydney Forum,
• using Lucy Turnbull's State role to generate donations,
• Dyson Heydon's placement on the RC and the focus on Labor figures rather than Unions,
• Mal Brough's illegal behaviour
• and the others who encouraged an attempted entrapment of the ex-Liberal Peter Slipper,
• travel rorts,
• etc.

Seat based polling is generally not very accurate but if those swings hold that's ALP majority territory. NSW is supposed to be where they're struggling to really get the swing too.

A hung parliament is a real possibility too. Only Palmer will lose his seat but Batman, New England, Cowper and a few SA seats are a chance to go from the major parties.

I thought it was NSW and WA where they were getting most gains?

 

[Gough]

Don't forget the lazy four mil in donations that they've sacrificed rather than reveal where they come from.

 

[Visions]

NSW Marginals, ReachTel

Lindsay:
L/NP: 46 (-7)
ALP: 54 (+7)

Newspoll had Lindsay 53-47 to the Libs a week ago. Okay, a different pollster, but a 14% turnaround in a week?

 

[Pessimistic]

The country is better off if the libs are destroyed this election. Gives them a chance to wipe the slate clean and to reform. Hopefully a few of their right wingers get wiped out too. Tho it probably means Shorten will be PM for 2 terms or more... not much of a fan of ol shortcake.

Bolt has a similar proposal to you - except its the wets who will be purged

 

[Hank Scorpion]

National poll, ReachTel
Primaries:
L/NP: 42 (-1)
ALP: 34 (-)
Greens: 11 (+1)


2PP:
L/NP: 51 (-)
ALP: 49 (-)



Cowper, NSW, ReachTel
Primaries:
Nationals: 42 (-11)
Independent (Rob Oakeshott): 32 (+32)
ALP: 11 (-14)
Greens: 8 (-4)


2PP:
Nationals: 50 (-12)
Oakeshott: 50 (+50)

 

[Footy Smarts]

But its been consistently above $4.00. The Liberals have finally woken up to Mike Rann and Jay Weatherill tactics of targeting the marginals and letting the ''safe seats'' slump.

Last night you could get $18 on Brexit with Betfair around the time the polls closed. Political betting has been horrendously wrong on numerous occasions recently so I'd put absolutely no weight in the odds at the moment. I think it would be very silly to write-off any possibility right now with the polls so close. Frankly the $7.50 odds on Labor at the moment is crazy.

 

[Visions]

Last night you could get $18 on Brexit with Betfair around the time the polls closed. Political betting has been horrendously wrong on numerous occasions recently so I'd put absolutely no weight in the odds at the moment. I think it would be very silly to write-off any possibility right now with the polls so close. Frankly the $7.50 odds on Labor at the moment is crazy.

On the same front you could say the polls are horrendously wrong consistently. Last UK elections polls were incorrect, the last Brexit poll (showed 52-48 in favor of remaining). They weren't even close.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Galaxy/ReachTel (Seat, State, L/NP 2PP, L/NP Swing)
Banks, NSW, 52, -1
Dobell, NSW, 51, +2
Gilmore, NSW, 51, -2
Lindsay, NSW, 51, -2
Macarthur, NSW, 50, -3
Dunkley, VIC, 53, -3
Corangamite, VIC, 53, -1
McEwen, VIC, 48, -2
Bruce, VIC, 48, -0
Longman, QLD, 53, -4
Brisbane, QLD, 52, -2
Capricornia, QLD, 49, -2
Petrie, QLD, 48, -3
Griffith, QLD, 47, -0
Hindmarsh, SA, 50, -2
Boothby, SA, 53, -4
Bass, TAS, 50, -4
Braddon, TAS, 50, -3
Lyons, TAS, 45, -6
Franklin, TAS, 41, -5


Non-Classic contests
Kennedy, QLD, Katter 58-42 LNP
Denison, TAS, Wilkie 65-35 ALP

Both SA results were measured as Liberal v ALP contests

 

[Footy Smarts]

On the same front you could say the polls are horrendously wrong consistently. Last UK elections polls were incorrect, the last Brexit poll (showed 52-48 in favor of remaining). They weren't even close.

Most people don't understand statistics and error margins anywhere near well enough to actually understand how right or wrong polls are. Even that last poll being 52-48 with 1650 respondents is a perfectly taken sample of the population there's still a ~20% chance that leave is in front and it's just randomness that gave the 52-48 result. It's perfectly within the bounds of possibility that a perfectly taken sample gives that result, of course that's not taking into account the possibility of imperfect methodology.

But right now the polls for Australia are very close. The polls suggest the coalition should perhaps be a very narrow favourite. Add in a bit of a sophomore surge and maybe the coalition should be considered a 75% chance (I'd have it a bit lower than that). But the current odds suggest they're something like an 85% chance of winning. That just doesn't fit with the current polls.

 

[Pessimistic]

Suggested huge minor party primary vote. Polls base 2PP on flows at last election. remove palmer add xenpohon etc and if anything is likely, the flows will not be exactly as the last election

 

[pjcrows]

Still just can't see Labor getting to 73.

 

[Maggie5]

Whoever wins will have to deal with a tougher Senate. Think they are in for tough a time if their policies aren't right.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Galaxy/ReachTel (Seat, State, L/NP 2PP, L/NP Swing)
Banks, NSW, 52, -1
Dobell, NSW, 51, +2
Gilmore, NSW, 51, -2
Lindsay, NSW, 51, -2
Macarthur, NSW, 50, -3
Dunkley, VIC, 53, -3
Corangamite, VIC, 53, -1
McEwen, VIC, 48, -2
Bruce, VIC, 48, -0
Longman, QLD, 53, -4
Brisbane, QLD, 52, -2
Capricornia, QLD, 49, -2
Petrie, QLD, 48, -3
Griffith, QLD, 47, -0
Hindmarsh, SA, 50, -2
Boothby, SA, 53, -4
Bass, TAS, 50, -4
Braddon, TAS, 50, -3
Lyons, TAS, 45, -6
Franklin, TAS, 41, -5


Non-Classic contests
Kennedy, QLD, Katter 58-42 LNP
Denison, TAS, Wilkie 65-35 ALP

Both SA results were measured as Liberal v ALP contests

Murdoch is going to want Turnbull to start removing fibre from the ground after giving him such a leg-up with the CFA beat-up in Victoria.