Polls Thread Mk III

[samFFC]

Problem for Labor is that (I think) they have a credibility issue when it comes to attack. It all started back with the Australia day race baititng,

Come again?

followed up with the misogyny attack

The one that was highly popular within the community, particularly amongst women, and received international attention and praise?

then the $70 billion in cuts and costings debacle

Again, that was not unpopular with the electorate. Saul Eslake thought it would have been around $30 billion. And a lack of pre-election costings by the Coalition meant they left themselves open to the attacks. Certainly wasn't unpopular for ALP to push that line.

They even went hard too early on the $6 co-payment issue which was nothing more than a proposal from a former Abbott Health adviser in a paper to the Commission of Audit.

Majority of the fuss was kicked up by people in the health industry, and social justice groups, both of whom know the effects this would have, and the sheer lack of evidence to suggest the policy would be effective or cost-effective. Why do you think they "went hard too early"? Do you think it would be a popular policy? Or has effective early action helped to nullify a potentially bad policy from getting into the party room?

 

[Inferno]

Shorten needs to hold his nose, swallow his past statements and let the Carbon and Mining Tax repeal legislation through – he also needs to do the same thing with a range of other Coalition election commitments (ie. ABCC).

Would likely see the support for the ALP collapse and the Greens go back into the mid-high teens a la the dropping of the ETS in 2010 for minimal or no gain from swing or Coalition voters.

They've well and truly passed the point of no return on the issue.

 

[Stumpy Pete]

Come again?



The one that was highly popular within the community, particularly amongst women, and received international attention and praise?



Again, that was not unpopular with the electorate. Saul Eslake thought it would have been around $30 billion. And a lack of pre-election costings by the Coalition meant they left themselves open to the attacks. Certainly wasn't unpopular for ALP to push that line.



Majority of the fuss was kicked up by people in the health industry, and social justice groups, both of whom know the effects this would have, and the sheer lack of evidence to suggest the policy would be effective or cost-effective. Why do you think they "went hard too early"? Do you think it would be a popular policy? Or has effective early action helped to nullify a potentially bad policy from getting into the party room?

On the first issue here's the incident - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3430890.htm a clear attempt (albeit unauthorised) by someone in the PM's office to incite race based anger towards Tony Abbott.

On the second issue - the former PMs speech may have been popular within the international press but domestically within a week it had fallen falt after people questioned whether Tony Abbott truly was a "misogynist". Plibersek and other backtracked and articles about the hypocrisy of the former PM and ALP on this issue started to get traction.

The costings debacle involing Rudd, Bowen and Wong and the rebuke from Treasury, Finance and the PBO was a massive stuffup that negated an avenue of attack that had already been debunked by factcheckers, after that every time Rudd mentioned it he sounded like an arrogant fool who couldn;t be told he was wrong.

On the last issue - the reason I think they went hartd too early is that it plays into a narrative that the ALP are the kings of ineffective scare campaigns that either fail when put to the test or jump at shadows.

Regards

S. Pete

 

[poller]

Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Labor primary 40%

Coaliiton primary 41%

 

[clogged]

On the first issue here's the incident - http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3430890.htm a clear attempt (albeit unauthorised) by someone in the PM's office to incite race based anger towards Tony Abbott.

On the second issue - the former PMs speech may have been popular within the international press but domestically within a week it had fallen falt after people questioned whether Tony Abbott truly was a "misogynist". Plibersek and other backtracked and articles about the hypocrisy of the former PM and ALP on this issue started to get traction.

The costings debacle involing Rudd, Bowen and Wong and the rebuke from Treasury, Finance and the PBO was a massive stuffup that negated an avenue of attack that had already been debunked by factcheckers, after that every time Rudd mentioned it he sounded like an arrogant fool who couldn;t be told he was wrong.

On the last issue - the reason I think they went hartd too early is that it plays into a narrative that the ALP are the kings of ineffective scare campaigns that either fail when put to the test or jump at shadows.

Regards

S. Pete

I don't think anyone out there in marginal voter land is paying any attention to that.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Some other interesting figures in that poll

36% thought Abbott did enough in regards to auto manufacturing. 46% did not
55% are concerned about the job security of someone within their immediate family. Makes sense for Shorten to keep grilling Abbott on this issue.
Only 17% approve of expanding Abbot point port (Great Barrier Reef). 66% disapprove.
16% approve of unwarranted government access to phone & internet records. 80% disapprove

And in a faith-in-humanity-restored moment:
71% aren't interested in Schapelle Corby

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/02/Essential-Report_140218.pdf

 

[samFFC]

Poll Bludger has things back to 50-50

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/02/20/bludgertrack-50-0-50-0-2/

 

[tandino]

More good news for our glorious leader.

 

[RUNVS]

More good news for our glorious leader.

Kim Jung Un is also a "glorious leader" according to the North Korean news service.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Redcliffe By-Election today, not thread-worthy, but thought I'd share an interesting finding from a Galaxy poll (13th Feb).

TPP
LNP: 43
ALP: 57

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/13-february-2014/

Redcliffe was won on a 10.1% margin at the March '12 election. If Galaxy is correct, it will go from a "safe" (>10%) LNP seat to Labor's safest seat in the entire Queensland parliament.

 

[Docker Clint]

Polling appears to be accurate. Antony Green has called it for Labor.

 

[samFFC]

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Redcliffe By-Election today, not thread-worthy, but thought I'd share an interesting finding from a Galaxy poll (13th Feb).

TPP
LNP: 43
ALP: 57

http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/13-february-2014/

Redcliffe was won on a 10.1% margin at the March '12 election. If Galaxy is correct, it will go from a "safe" (>10%) LNP seat to Labor's safest seat in the entire Queensland parliament.

Is there a specific reason for this?

A local issue or somesuch, because that is a very large swing and could surely not be purely indicative of sentiments towards federal or even state libs?

 

[samFFC]

Is there a specific reason for this?

A local issue or somesuch, because that is a very large swing and could surely not be purely indicative of sentiments towards federal or even state libs?

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/redcliffe_in_2015/

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Edit just read an article from a News. source that a former MP coloured the bye-election, but Labor largely campaigned on Newmans negatives.

Seems that I may have underestimated the antipathy or downright hate for him, in some Queensland electorates.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/redcliffe_in_2015/

Cool, reasonable if mildly slanted analysis.

It would be a truly stunning example of political "losing the plot" so to speak, if Labor were able to win the next election. Surely impossible, but with a hefty swing against Newman and the federal coalition being out of favor, definitely a reasonable chunk being taken out of Ol Campell Bjelke Pietersens majority should be expected.

I have read the phrase "shock jock rule" a few times now, seems apt.

 

[clogged]

This reminds me, I need to watch those Chinese movies.

 

[samFFC]

Morgan has 50.5-49.5
Newspoll is 54-46 (wow)

 

[clogged]

Links are good.

LABOR’S support is the highest it has been since Kevin Rudd was removed as prime minister in 2010, as tough budget talk on Medicare co-payments and lifting the retirement age seems to have pushed the Coalition and Tony Abbott to their worst position since the election.

Strange how The Australian brush over the biggest news of the weekend

Morgan has 50.5-49.5
Newspoll is 54-46 (wow)

But I thought ...

Shorten has the appeal of a virus

Politics is a funny thing.

 

[Juddism]

Links are good.



Strange how The Australian brush over the biggest news of the weekend


But I thought ...



Politics is a funny thing.

Shorten can ride the numbers by saying nothing...ABC is clearly gunning for Morrison and rightly so, but every News Ltd outlet has very little on the saga.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Morgan has 50.5-49.5
Newspoll is 54-46 (wow)

That Newspoll has got to be rogue. 51.5-48.5 would be more like it.

As for Morgan, good and bad news for the Libs. Leading 55-45 in WA which bodes well for the senate election. Trailing 46.5-53.5 in SA, which might swing a couple of disenchanted voters to Labor at the state election.

 

[RUNVS]

That Newspoll has got to be rogue. 51.5-48.5 would be more like it.

As for Morgan, good and bad news for the Libs. Leading 55-45 in WA which bodes well for the senate election. Trailing 46.5-53.5 in SA, which might swing a couple of disenchanted voters to Labor at the state election.

They may be leading 55-45 in WA but what were they leading at the time of the election back in September?

 

[poller]

looks like nelson was the rogue poll

every other poll has labor in front

 

[samFFC]

looks like nelson was the rogue poll

every other poll has labor in front

Agree but 54-46 seems also too far rogue.
In both cases, they are within the ~3% margin of error for polls of their size, around the average of 51-49 or 51.5-48.5 to Labor.

 

[tandino]

Haven't most other polls been showing a small contraction in Labor's support?

If there is an outlier it would look to be Newspoll.