Polls Thread Mk III

[RUNVS]

Also need to take into account that historically Australians do not like one party having complete control of both houses so that means they might be less likely to vote for the Coalition as a result.

 

[tandino]

For anyone willing to predict the outcome of any Senate election, all I can say is good luck to you.

 

[Footy Smarts]

For anyone willing to predict the outcome of any Senate election, all I can say is good luck to you.

Yep. Slight changes in primary votes and weird preference allocations can give all sorts of results. The only conclusion we can really make at the moment is that it's pretty much impossible for the coalition to get a more favourable result than if either of the current results stand.

 

[The Speaker]

Any potential Senate results need to use the new preferences. You can be pretty sure the Sports party won't be getting such a good deal. Palmer probably won't either.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

WA State Newspoll
Primary (Swing is from 2013 election)
Coalition 44 (-9)
Labor 33 (-)
Greens 13 (+5)

TPP
Coalition 51 (-6)
Labor 49 (+6)

Satisfaction
Barnett: Approve 34; Disapprove 54
McGowan: Approve 51; Disapprove 22

Preferred Premier
Barnett 37
McGowan 43


http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/12/28/1226790/994136-aus-newspoll-wa-2-party-dec-13.pdf

 

[samFFC]

WA State Newspoll

Primary (Swing is from 2013 election)
Coalition 44 (-9)
Labor 33 (-)
Greens 13 (+5)

Huge rise in the "Other" vote - do we presume this is mostly for PUP?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Huge rise in the "Other" vote - do we presume this is mostly for PUP?

10% vote "other", a 4.7% increase from the March election. Palmer would receive most of this.

 

[samFFC]

10% vote "other", a 4.7% increase from the March election. Palmer would receive most of this.

Yep, that's what I was getting at. I wonder if his support will hold until 2017. The upcoming WA senate election will be very interesting, for both assessing the Newspoll numbers and seeing if Palmer can win another seat and shore up Balance of Power. That will obviously play a big role long term in how the PUP goes at 2016 Federal and 2017 WA State elections, for better or worse.

 

[Pessimistic]

Can someone text me when the much predicted death of the labor party happens ?

 

[Docker Clint]

Also need to take into account that historically Australians do not like one party having complete control of both houses so that means they might be less likely to vote for the Coalition as a result.

Historically it's been proven to be true, but judging by the amount of political apathy and lack of knowledge in how our system actually works, I'd say that the usual status quo of a party not controlling the senate is more through luck than design.

 

[poller]

It seems not even in the holiday period can the Abbott government get a boost

Morgan poll today
Primary

ALP 38 % (-0.5%)
Coalition 39% (-1.5%)



2pp

ALP 52.5%
Coalition 47.5%

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5371-federal-voting-intention-january-13-2014-201401130606

 

[samFFC]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/01/13/morgan-52-5-47-5-to-labor-3/

As has been Morgan’s form for a while now, this poll combines its regular weekend face-to-face polling with SMS component, in this case encompassing 2527 respondents from the two weekends past. The first Essential Research result for the year should be with us tomorrow.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Essential Polling
Coalition: 45 (+1)
Labor: 38 (+1)

TPP
Coalition: 51 (-)
Labor: 49 (-)

Approval of GP fees
Approve: 28%
Disapprove: 64%
Undecided: 8%

Support for a republic
Support: 47%
Oppose: 32%
No Opinion: 20%

http://essentialvision.com.au/documents/essential_report_140114.pdf

 

[Pessimistic]

If labor were to be voted in next time, no doubt the polls would swing back

 

[Hank Scorpion]

ReachTel Poll
Primary:
Coalition: 40 (-1)
Labor: 41 (+1)
Greens: 9 (-)

TPP:
Coalition: 47 (-1)
Labor: 53 (+1)

Essential Research
Primary:
Coalition: 42 (-1)
Labor: 36 (-1)
Greens: 9 (-)

TPP:
Coalition 50 (-1)
Labor 50 (+1)

 

[pjcrows]

The people are clearly losing faith in the Government. Election now! They are a rabble! Off with their heads!

 

[Gough]

The people are clearly losing faith in the Government. Election now! They are a rabble! Off with their heads!

Illegitimte, undemocratic government.

 

[samFFC]

Illegitimte, undemocratic government.

How so? I mean I'm not a fan of Abbott, and the govt certainly doesn't have a Senate mandate as they keep carping on about, but they were democratically elected no?

 

[Gough]

How so? I mean I'm not a fan of Abbott, and the govt certainly doesn't have a Senate mandate as they keep carping on about, but they were democratically elected no?

It was a phrase used by our PM in opposition to describe the previous government. It was a grubby and dishonest tactic used by a grubby and dishonest man. The previous government was no more undemocratic and illegitimate than this one and Abbott knew that.

 

[Dont be a lemon]

I remember he respected the (2010) election results as legitimate but the (Gillard) government was illegitimate.

My brain could have shut down.

 

[poller]

todays morgan poll has
Labor 53%
coalition 47%

 

[Gough]

I remember he respected the (2010) election results as legitimate but the (Gillard) government was illegitimate.

My brain could have shut down.

You'd have thought that little episode might have set off a few more alarm bells in people than it did.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

You'd have thought that little episode might have set off a few more alarm bells in people than it did.

It was ok Labor had gotten rid of Howard's sedition laws so he was safe as his comments probably wouldn't be covered under treason. Stupid ethical Labor.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Surprisingly there hasn't been a newspoll this week. Here's a conspiracy theory for you.

Every year since 2008 there has been a newspoll earlier in the year than this year (assuming there isn't one until next week). However this is the first year that a poll is likely to damage somebody that Murdoch wants in there.

2008 - Rudd PMship. Either bad news for Rudd or bad news for Nelson. Win-win for Murdoch.
2009 - Either bad news for Rudd or bad news for Turnbull. Again win-win for Murdoch.
2010 - Abbott had just come in as opposition leader with Rudd in a dominant position and an election coming up later in the year. Something needed to shift the momentum. Worst case scenario the status quo is kept while the best case scenario Abbott gets some momentum. Interestingly this had remarkably early newspolls with 2 polls published in January.
2011 - Discontent over the 2010 election starting to spread. Only likely to be bad for Gillard.
2012 and 2013 - Gillard miles behind and endless polls removed any chance of her ever getting clear air. Dropping in questions over leadership helped the instability too.

So now that Abbott's in the lodge and other polls are turning south newspoll has mysteriously gone quiet.

This is very much tin-foil hat thinking. Surely it's just a coincidence...

 

[tandino]

You've been spending too much time on Twitter.

In all seriousness, it is an interesting point. One possibility is that they are trying to align themselves with the State elections this year. Polling fortnightly,starting from last Tuesday (in theory; no poll last week due to Australia Day) would allow a poll to come out the Tuesday before polling day in SA, TAS and VIC.