Polls Thread Mk III

[Caesar]

Couldn't disagree more.

There was plenty of talk about a challenge before Shaw's actions and the Government was well and truly floundering by that point. Even Jeff Kennett who was not just a close political ally but a mentor as well was publicly calling for Baillieu to resign the day before it happened.

All Shaw did was bring it to a head earlier than it otherwise would have.

AFAIK Napthine never had the numbers and never looked like having the numbers. Baillieu was never going to lose on the floor of the party room.

 

[DeanoT]

AFAIK Napthine never had the numbers and never looked like having the numbers. Baillieu was never going to lose on the floor of the party room.

Article nine months before Baillieu got rolled. He was toast long before Geoff Shaw finished him off.

COALITION MPs will have much to talk about when they unite for a bonding session next week amid unrest over Premier Ted Baillieu's handling of flashpoint issues.

One MP has warned dissatisfaction is so strong there could be a leadership challenge before Christmas; however, others maintain no internal threat is likely before the 2014 election because of the Government's majority of just one seat.

Speculation over Mr Baillieu's leadership intensified this week after his bungled handling of the water billing scandal, just as the Government was inviting all its MPs to come together for drinks on Wednesday evening.

Government Whip David Hodgett also sent out an email scheduling similar events for two other dates later in the year, which are not thought to be related to leadership tensions.

But several angry MPs say any effort to unite may be too little, too late.

One party source said Mr Baillieu's refusal to intervene as voters in marginal seats were ripped off on water bills was the final straw, and that moves were under way to look for another leader.

"People are ready to get rid of him," one Liberal source said.

"The way things are going we've only got 12 months left to get our act together.

Napthine was just the experienced head they turned to once Ted was dead.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/drinks-night-a-taste-of-discontent/story-fn6bfkm6-1226397174555

 

[Caesar]

That's just a couple of disgruntled MPs. Nothing to indicate that Baillieu lacked the numbers in the party room.

 

[Inferno]

AFAIK Napthine never had the numbers and never looked like having the numbers. Baillieu was never going to lose on the floor of the party room.

The anti Baillieu group had the numbers and Napthine just happened to be the candidate most people including Ted himself could agree on as leader. If it wasn't Napthine it would have been someone else instead.

 

[Caesar]

The anti Baillieu group had the numbers

Source? I never heard that.

 

[DeanoT]

That's just a couple of disgruntled MPs. Nothing to indicate that Baillieu lacked the numbers in the party room.

Can't find the story now, but I recall reading that the anti-Baillieu camp were going to dump him before XMAS 2012, but decided to give him one last chance in the new year.

They didn't wait for too many bad polls in early 2013 to execute him. It was more than just a couple of disgruntled MPs.

 

[Footy Smarts]

That's just a couple of disgruntled MPs. Nothing to indicate that Baillieu lacked the numbers in the party room.

AFAIK Napthine never had the numbers and never looked like having the numbers. Baillieu was never going to lose on the floor of the party room.

It wasn't a Napthine Vs Baillieu showdown. Napthine was the compromise candidate who could draw some support from both sides of the divide. The group pushing to oust Baillieu was led by the grub Matthew Guy. The problem was that with all the questionable planing decisions that Guy has overseen he was always going to be a controversial leader and was in the Upper House as well. Then this came out a few days before everything went down, further spotlighting his dodgy dealings:

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/man-with-a-plan-20130302-2fd2e.html

Baillieu was leaking numbers in the party room. Geoff Shaw quitting was a good time for everything to be brought to a head but it was the type of thing that was happening regardless. There'd been rumblings about it for months and the polls were going further south. Napthine was never in the running until Baillieu was a sitting duck and Baillieu's backers, along with those who didn't like Baillieu but didn't much like the other options, could unite behind him. Baillieu might have held on in a ballot at that time against somebody like Guy or he might not. But his numbers definitely weren't entirely secure. The change wasn't Geoff Shaw's work alone.

 

[Gough]

Roy Morgan 2PP
LNP 47.5 (-1)
ALP 52.5 (+1)

 

[Pessimistic]

So theres a solid block of about 4 percent who arent happy with any government.

I wonder if they primary vote for a major party ?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

ReachTel Poll
Primary
Coalition 41 (-3)
Labor 40 (+6)
Greens 9 (-1)

2PP
Coalition 48 (-3)
Labor 52 (+3)

 

[Slax]

That's just a couple of disgruntled MPs. Nothing to indicate that Baillieu lacked the numbers in the party room.

Baillieu resigned because he knew the numbers were that tight he might lose, either way a one or two vote win for a standing premier is death. His leadership then will always be questioned in the press, it shows disunity in the party and makes him absolute cannon fodder for the opposition and media.

Ted was dead, he knew and he walked. You could of put up a teletubby at the election next year as ALP leader and they would've beaten him if he was still Premier.

 

[Slax]

Quite clear now that the polls showing the massive rebound for the ALP since the federal election are not rogues with the latest two polls showing Abbott trailing 48-52. He really is going to have to step things up a fair bit and start coming clean because currently everything he is doing has a bad smell about it.

Hockey is the only minister actually looking like he is up for the fight and on the front foot to the electorate. Yes he is sruiking bad news, but at least he is talking to the media. Abbott has gone missing and is showing less leadership than any PM this country has ever had, he needs to find his mojo fast or else he will be moving out of the Lodge very quickly.

 

[RUNVS]

I think the polls really only confirm my belief that people in the last election did not vote for Abbott and the Coalition, they voted against Labor and now the people who they did not like in Labor are gone or about to be gone they like Labor again much more than the Coalition.

Truthfully Labor have not done anything to warrant having these sort of poll figures. In fact I can probably count on one hand how many times I have seen Shorten on TV since he became opposition leader so these polls are reflecting how much the public do not like the Coalition instead of how much they like Labor.

 

[pjcrows]

People are significantly disappointed with both major parties, moreso than ever before.

 

[clogged]

Hockey is the only minister actually looking like he is up for the fight and on the front foot to the electorate. Yes he is sruiking bad news, but at least he is talking to the media. Abbott has gone missing and is showing less leadership than any PM this country has ever had, he needs to find his mojo fast or else he will be moving out of the Lodge very quickly.

Hockey is getting himself ready at being the next PM. Not in the short term, but you can tell he is cultivating a public persona to make him seem a viable alternative when the Liberal party look like moving Abbott on.

 

[pjcrows]

This notion that Abbott will get booted internally is nonsense.

 

[clogged]

This notion that Abbott will get booted internally is nonsense.

He is guaranteed a term. He won't be ousted like Rudd was. However, if he leads the Libs to a significant reduction in seats and continues to poll badly in his second term they will look to move him on.

 

[Slax]

This notion that Abbott will get booted internally is nonsense.

Right now it is, but if things keep going as they are in 12 months it certainly won't.

3 months after Rudd won office you would've been institutionalised if you had said he wouldn't lead Labor into the 2010 Federal election, but we all know how that ended up. The big thing both major parties have in common is their members don't like sitting on the opposition benches, it means they get paid less.

 

[poller]

He is guaranteed a term. He won't be ousted like Rudd was. However, if he leads the Libs to a significant reduction in seats and continues to poll badly in his second term they will look to move him on.

If the polls at the moment are right and the trend remians the same for the next 12 months the coalition word means nothing
Abbott told turnbull late 2009 , that Turnbull would lead the coalition to the 2010 election , and had Abbott's 100% support , few days later abbott and the liberal party faceless men challenge turn bull

if there is was an election held this weekend

Abbott will be out of government they already lost 20 or more seats, cant see the coalition under Abbott capable of convinving people to turn it around

 

[samFFC]

I think the polls really only confirm my belief that people in the last election did not vote for Abbott and the Coalition, they voted against Labor and now the people who they did not like in Labor are gone or about to be gone they like Labor again much more than the Coalition.

Truthfully Labor have not done anything to warrant having these sort of poll figures. In fact I can probably count on one hand how many times I have seen Shorten on TV since he became opposition leader so these polls are reflecting how much the public do not like the Coalition instead of how much they like Labor.

Given the "skeletons in the closet" he has, this is prudent media strategy. As was keeping Abbott out of Q&A and similar forums throughout the last 1-2 years of the Labor government.

Massive opportunity for the Greens, PUP and Nationals to pull much greater primary vote. At the moment, none are taking the chance, but would surely have to be a consideration soon. Certainly as part of the WA re-election.

 

[Pessimistic]

Abbott judgement


Next

 

[yibbida]

 

[RUNVS]

What is the situation with the new poll numbers and the WA senate election. Could that potentially have a strong effect?

 

[Footy Smarts]

What is the situation with the new poll numbers and the WA senate election. Could that potentially have a strong effect?

Could have a massive impact. It's hard to believe that it's really 50-50 in WA but if that's the case it would likely alter things significantly. With Clive saying he's going to concentrate on the WA senate election I'd imagine he'll bombard the airwaves again and, with both sides on the nose, could pick up a decent chunk of the vote. If that 50-50 is correct you'd think Labor, Greens and other left wing minors would be able to combine for 43% and get 3 seats between ALP and Greens. That already is a significant change on getting 2 ALP/GRN members, 1 PUP/minor right and 3 LNP. Then there's a slight chance that, if the LNP vote plummets and some preferences go wrong for them it could be 3 ALP/GRN, 2 LNP and 1 PUP. That would be pretty disastrous for Abbott.

If it goes 3 LAB/GRN, 3 LNP then that means Abbott would need 6 from the minor parties consisting of 2 x Palmer, Xenophon, LDP, DLP, FF and Motoring Enthusiasts. So he could lose 1 of those votes without it hurting him. With the current senate something like the abolition of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation might be able to get through if Abbott gets all of the new cross-benchers but with Xenophon and Madigan (DLP) saying they won't support getting rid of it he wouldn't be able to do it with even this change in senate seats.

 

[samFFC]

From memory, the PollBludger had the WA 2PP vote quite off prior to the election as well, so perhaps wouldn't read too much into these numbers. Will no doubt be plenty of polling of us in the lead-up to the re-election. Interesting to see if it is all just 2PP type stuff, or will be different polling methods, given it'll be for the Senate only.