Polls Thread Mk III

[Borry]

Massive support for the greens in WA, that's more support for them than in their heartlands in Victoria. I guess it's a lot to do with people not wanting to put all their trust in the ALP whilst they despise how this current mob are going.

 

[GOAUS!]

Massive support for the greens in WA, that's more support for them than in their heartlands in Victoria. I guess it's a lot to do with people not wanting to put all their trust in the ALP whilst they despise how this current mob are going.

It would surprise you to know it's been like that for a while (Greens doing well in WA compared to the rest of Australia).

 

[samFFC]

Polls on the various policies in the budget



Big support for:
-Foreign aid freezing (continuing to demonstrate lack of public understanding of the actual level we spend on aid)
-Road spending
-Reducing repayment income level for HELP debt
-Solar projects
-Mobile blackspot and wireless coverage in regions

Very negative:
-Deregulation of Uni fees
-Medicare co-payments
-Pension age to 70
-Cutting public funding to Uni courses by 20%

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Bludgertrack is in and paints a bleak picture for the Government

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/22/bludgertrack-54-2-45-8-to-labor/

Had to laugh at this bit:

The slump in Tony Abbott’s standing which had become evident over the previous fortnight has continued apace, to the extent that I have had to increase the range of the y-axis on the net satisfaction chart to accommodate it.

 

[Pessimistic]

Can anyone estimate what your chances are of actually being interviewed for a poll ?

Lets say over twenty years. I say this because I have never been polled ever

 

[pjcrows]

I was polled by Nielsen when I used to have a landline 5 years ago.

 

[Gough]

My mum gets polled regularly (god that sounds awful), but she hated Tony Abbott before it was cool.

 

[swingdog]

My mum gets polled regularly (god that sounds awful), but she hated Tony Abbott before it was cool.

Phrasing!

 

[samFFC]

Do they get new people each month or similar cohort?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Two polls out of Queensland

Queensland (State) - Electorate of Stafford - ReachTel
The inner-Brisbane electorate of Stafford (LNP 7.1%) is set for a by-election following the resignation of the sitting MP Dr. Chris Davis.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/05/queensland-set-for-another-by-election.html

The poll doesn't feature voting intention, however there is widespread opposition to Campbell Newman's actions as premier.

https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/stafford-poll-drchrisdavis-21may2014

It is a small sample size, but I cannot help but be alarmed that 6% of young people don't know who their Premier is...

If the swing is anything like it was at the Redcliffe by-election, Labor will easily gain it's 9th seat

Queensland (Federal) - Galaxy

Galaxy seems to be operating with a Coalition bias at the moment. It could just be Queensland, but other polls have shown a stronger Labor vote, greater opposition to co-payments, and I wouldn't have thought an increased GST would be so popular.

 

[samFFC]

Two polls out of Queensland

Queensland (State) - Electorate of Stafford - ReachTel
The inner-Brisbane electorate of Stafford (LNP 7.1%) is set for a by-election following the resignation of the sitting MP Dr. Chris Davis.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/05/queensland-set-for-another-by-election.html

The poll doesn't feature voting intention, however there is widespread opposition to Campbell Newman's actions as premier.

https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/stafford-poll-drchrisdavis-21may2014

It is a small sample size, but I cannot help but be alarmed that 6% of young people don't know who their Premier is...

If the swing is anything like it was at the Redcliffe by-election, Labor will easily gain it's 9th seat

Queensland (Federal) - Galaxy

Galaxy seems to be operating with a Coalition bias at the moment. It could just be Queensland, but other polls have shown a stronger Labor vote, greater opposition to co-payments, and I wouldn't have thought an increased GST would be so popular.

Fairly strong Coalition seat, and Dr Davis seems to be a popular candidate (47.7 favourable versus 14.1 unfavourable). So perhaps stronger-than-usual support for the Budget might be expected?

 

[poller]

Galaxy seems to be operating with a Coalition bias at the moment. It could just be Queensland, but other polls have shown a stronger Labor vote, greater opposition to co-payments, and I wouldn't have thought an increased GST would be so popular.

The poll still shows a 5% swing against lnp , which would lose them 8-12 seats in qld

Coalition can not afford to lose more than 14 nationwide

 

[Slax]

The poll still shows a 5% swing against lnp , which would lose them 8-12 seats in qld

Coalition can not afford to lose more than 14 nationwide

Looking at a similar swing in NSW. Maybe the nickname the ALP wanted to give him in the first sitting of the new Abbott government of one-term Tony will be accurate.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Essential Research (1,058 respondents)
Primaries
ALP: 39 (-1)
Coalition: 40 (-)
Greens: 9 (+1)
PUP: 5 (-)

TPP
ALP: 52
Coalition: 48

(The TPP and Coalition primary have not changed within a month???)

Other categories polled include leaders' attributes and political party influences:

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/files/2014/05/Essential-Report_140527_V1.pdf

There is also concern over an broader or heavier GST, and the undisclosed negotiations over the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

UMR Research (1000 respondents per electorate)
La Trobe (Vic, LIB, 4.0%) (swing from '13 election)
TPP
Liberal: 40 (-14)
ALP: 60 (+14)

Forde* (Qld, LNP, 4.4%)
TPP
Liberal: 42 (-12.4)
ALP: 58 (+12.4)

Lindsay (NSW, LIB, 3.0%)
TPP
Liberal: 50 (-3)
ALP: 50 (+3)

*There was 17% support for the Palmer United Party in Forde. It should also be noted that Labor ran Peter Beattie in this electorate last time.

http://www.cfmeu.net.au/news/poll-c...s-voters-abandon-government-over-harsh-budget

 

[Slax]

Can anyone estimate what your chances are of actually being interviewed for a poll ?

Lets say over twenty years. I say this because I have never been polled ever

Been polled a couple of times by various organisations, worth noting though that when I was being polled I lived in what were deemed marginal seats.

 

[swingdog]

Was polled first time (phrasing) before last Federal election.

 

[NTRabbit]

Until the most recent electorate border shift I lived in a blue riband Liberal seat, and was never polled. In a slightly more marginal seat now, still not been polled.

 

[samFFC]

Poll bludger update: 55-45 Labor.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/29/bludgertrack-55-0-45-0-to-labor/

9-10% swing in NSW, WA, SA and Territories.
Just can't see Labor getting anywhere near 7 seats in WA (currently 3). Still a long long way until 2016.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Poll bludger update: 55-45 Labor.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/29/bludgertrack-55-0-45-0-to-labor/

9-10% swing in NSW, WA, SA and Territories.
Just can't see Labor getting anywhere near 7 seats in WA (currently 3). Still a long long way until 2016.

Christopher Pyne would get booted out according to those figures.

It should be noted that WA is due for an extra seat, which would considerably affect the margins across the state.

Difficult to predict where a new electorate would be based, however I would think a consequence of a state-wide redistribution would be one of Pearce or Canning becoming more rural and the other more urban. Hence, the Liberals secure an ultra-safe, mostly rural seat and hold a far more marginal, mostly urban seat.

Trying to plot the Libs' downfall in the state, although fun, is futile at the moment.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

A number of state-politics based polls coming out, with the Eastern states all heading to the polls within the next 12 months.

Galaxy - NSW
Primary (swing since '11 election)
Coalition: 43 (-8.1)
ALP: 37 (+11.4)
Green: 11 (+0.7)

TPP
Coalition: 53 (-11.2)
ALP: 47 (+11.2)

(5% swing away from the Coalition since the last Galaxy [Prior to O'Farrell's resignation])

Preferred Premier
Baird: 43
Robertson: 11

Did O'Farrell lie to ICAC?
Yes: 58
No: 27

Essential - NSW
Primary (swing since '11 election)
Coalition: 42 (-9.1)
ALP: 38 (+12.4)
Green: 9 (-1.3)

TPP
Coalition: 51 (-13.2)
ALP: 49 (+13.2)

Essential - Victoria
Primary (swing since '10 election)
Coalition: 38 (-6.8)
ALP: 40 (+3.7)
Green: 10 (-1.2)

TPP
Coalition: 47 (-4.6)
ALP: 53 (+4.6)

Essential - Queensland
Primary (swing since '12 election)
LNP: 41 (-8.7)
ALP: 36 (+9.9)
PUP: 12
Green: 4 (-3.5)
KAP: 2 (-9.5)

TPP
Coalition: 53 (-9.8)
ALP: 47 (+9.8)

 

[pjcrows]

Cheers for the poll updates Hank - you're assuming the role of resident pollster superbly!

The interesting figures there are Robertson's preferred Premier. Dismal.

 

[Pessimistic]

If we had two countries then most people would have the govt they prefer

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Newspoll
Primary
ALP: 37 (-1)
Coalition: 36 (-)
Green: 12 (+1)

TPP
ALP: 54 (-1)
Coalition: 46 (+1)

Leaders' Approval (Approve(+/-)/Disapprove(+/-))
Abbott: 33 (+3)/59 (-1)
Shorten: 38 (-4)/43 (+4)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 35 (+1)
Shorten: 45 (+1)

Roy Morgan Research - 3,247 Sample Size
Primary
ALP: 38 (-0.5)
Coalition: 35 (-)
Green: 11 (-1)
PUP: 7.5 (+1)

TPP
ALP: 56.5 (-1)
Coalition: 43.5 (+1)

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/5...ral-voting-intention-june-2-2014-201406020542

EDIT - Essential Research - 1936 Sample size

Primary
ALP: 39 (-)
Coalition: 38 (-2)
Greens: 10 (+1)
PUP: 6 (+1)

TPP
ALP: 53 (+1)
Coalition: 47 (-1)

Spending Cuts?:
Too harsh: 48
About right: 21
Too soft: 11


Should the ALP pass (Y-N)?:
Deficit Levy: 73-13
Co-Payments: 32-61
Raised Pension Age: 27-62
Deregulation of Uni Fees: 23-63

Preferred Liberal Leader:
Abbott: 18
Turnbull: 31
Hockey: 6
J Bishop: 4
Pyne: <0.1
Morrison: 1
Other: 19

http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

 

[Slax]

Anyway you look at it another poor poll for the Coalition, after 2 full weeks trying to sell the budget it hasn't really improved. Now with the leadership elephant in the room publicly can't see things getting better anytime soon.

 

[Hodgepodge]

If Labor had a good opposition leader it would be more concerning. Someone like Chris Bowen maybe.