Polls Thread Mk III

[Fire]

Clearley an outlier. Don't know about the methodologies in that but the boomers didn't show up to that poll.

 

[kranky al]

Clearley an outlier. Don't know about the methodologies in that but the boomers didn't show up to that poll.

The boomers may well be the thing that kills the liberals this year.

They are going to weigh franking credits vs a government who doesnt give a shit whether they live long enough to spend them.

 

[DaRick]

Clearley an outlier. Don't know about the methodologies in that but the boomers didn't show up to that poll.

The headline figures are absurd, but the actual commentary was interesting, albeit demonstrating a clear dislike of ScoMo.

Assuming that those comments weren't cherry-picked to suit an agenda, and that the commentator wasn't just seeing what they wanted to see (both possible in context), there's a lot of ill-feeling towards ScoMo out there right now, and quite a bit of it is from Boomers.

My own suspicions are that while Albo inspires ambivalence, ScoMo right now inspires outright contempt if not hatred. This seems like a Biden vs Trump situation, or even an Annastacia vs Newman situation - and neither ended well for the incumbent.

 

[Hornberger]

 

[kranky al]

Pile it on


Would love to see these anaemic losers blasted into opposition for a decade or more - hopefully will spark a move back to the centre and away from the godbothering coal cuddlers

 

[Kyptastic]

44 - 56 was the same number newspoll got to in the survey following Turnbull being toppled by Morrison, so it’s not terminal yet.

 

[NSWCROW]

Good lord.....

Also, **** this thread

 

[Father Jack]

Well according to this the numbers aren't that bad for Morrison so long as you chart it the way you wished it looked

 

[Dry Rot]

Preferred PM is appalling for ScoMo

 

[DaRick]

Hmmm...I hate to be a killjoy, but Roy Morgan and Newspoll have the same result.

I know Resolve's was very different, and it's much less likely that you have identical results with such a large margin between the parties, so surely we're not seeing poll herding again?

Does anyone know anything about any potential sampling errors?

RE the polls, I've commented on them elsewhere.

TLDR; ScoMo is reminding me of Campbell Newman in that the electorate may not be sure about his opponent, but they sure as hell don't like him. The PPM measure says it all in that regard. ScoMo should be comfortably ahead on that; that he isn't points to trouble.

I think that if things don't improve by March/April, they'll try to knife him and replace him with The Fry (ScoMo's made it tricky, though). He'd do better in inner-city areas, VIC and WA simply by not being ScoMo. His performance in inner-city QLD would be better than Morrison's, but elsewhere in Brisbane I'd be more dubious, and he'll be a trainwreck in QLD's regions.

 

[DaRick]

44 - 56 was the same number newspoll got to in the survey following Turnbull being toppled by Morrison, so it’s not terminal yet.

That was further out than this (4 vs 8 months), but ScoMo had really hope that the pandemic/economic situation improves markedly come election time, and that the ALP don't run a particularly resonant campaign, because if things keep going further south he'll be more in danger from his own party (despite his protections) than the electorate come March/April.

 

[DaRick]

Well according to this the numbers aren't that bad for Morrison so long as you chart it the way you wished it looked

As I said in the other thread, this IMO shows that people are somewhat ambivalent about Albo.

From what I've seen, they're definitely not ambivalent about ScoMo, so his PPM is close to maxed out barring a marked pandemic/economic recovery + an ALP campaign that doesn't resonate.

 

[Fire]

44 - 56 was the same number newspoll got to in the survey following Turnbull being toppled by Morrison, so it’s not terminal yet.

Maybe.

But the two margins, while the same, are not identical. The strength of the margins appears different. A reactionary backlash against a shock is not the sane as a already, deteriorating trend based on ongoing events.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Hmmm...I hate to be a killjoy, but Roy Morgan and Newspoll have the same result.

I know Resolve's was very different, and it's much less likely that you have identical results with such a large margin between the parties, so surely we're not seeing poll herding again?

Does anyone know anything about any potential sampling errors?

RE the polls, I've commented on them elsewhere.

TLDR; ScoMo is reminding me of Campbell Newman in that the electorate may not be sure about his opponent, but they sure as hell don't like him. The PPM measure says it all in that regard. ScoMo should be comfortably ahead on that; that he isn't points to trouble.

I think that if things don't improve by March/April, they'll try to knife him and replace him with The Fry (ScoMo's made it tricky, though). He'd do better in inner-city areas, VIC and WA simply by not being ScoMo. His performance in inner-city QLD would be better than Morrison's, but elsewhere in Brisbane I'd be more dubious, and he'll be a trainwreck in QLD's regions.

I don't know if Fraudenberg would do better in Victoria.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

As I said in the other thread, this IMO shows that people are somewhat ambivalent about Albo.

From what I've seen, they're definitely not ambivalent about ScoMo, so his PPM is close to maxed out barring a marked pandemic/economic recovery + an ALP campaign that doesn't resonate.

Honestly for Labor, being ambivalent about Albo is a much stronger result than the dislike for Shorten.

 

[HurleyHepsHird]

Preferred PM is appalling for ScoMo

This and the individual approval ratings are what will have the PMO panicking.

 

[DaRick]

I don't know if Fraudenberg would do better in Victoria.

Victorians aren't as parochial as Queenslanders, but they're more parochial than they'd probably care to admit IMO (they hate Dutton for lecturing them about Sudanese gangs), and my understanding is that while The Fry has issues down there, ScoMo is outright hated.

 

[DaRick]

Honestly for Labor, being ambivalent about Albo os a much stronger result than the dislike for Shorten.

Absolutely.

I'm just making the point that Albo's basically a Beazley/Biden/Annastacia - a challenger who doesn't really arouse strong feelings one way or the other.

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Victorians aren't as parochial as Queenslanders, but they're more parochial than they'd probably care to admit IMO (they hate Dutton for lecturing them about Sudanese gangs), and my understanding is that while The Fry has issues down there, ScoMo is outright hated.

Dutton not being from Melbourne made him seem like more of a ****ing idiot but the electorate still belted the shit out of the local Coalition too for the racist election campaign.

 

[DaRick]

Dutton not being from Melbourne made him seem like more of a ******* idiot but the electorate still belted the sh*t out of the local Coalition too for the racist election campaign.

Oh, you're a local and so I don't doubt what you say, but from what Ned_Flanders told me, voters were notably preoccupied with Dutton's little diatribe.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Victorians aren't as parochial as Queenslanders, but they're more parochial than they'd probably care to admit IMO (they hate Dutton for lecturing them about Sudanese gangs), and my understanding is that while The Fry has issues down there, ScoMo is outright hated.

being told we are on our own in 2020 changed things.

there is a reason Frydo's local ads in cinemas say he cares about local issues and is happy to speak to anyone with an issue. The PM for NSW and Treasurer for NSW lines are not disappearing

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Oh, you're a local and so I don't doubt what you say, but from what Ned_Flanders told me, voters were notably preoccupied with Dutton's little diatribe.

He has a lot of media clout so it definitely was a louder stupid voice than what the State MPs can muster. No doubt it was the smelliest of brain farts in the campaign. State Coalition are both untalented and forgettable. No doubt being an out of towner didn't help because IIRC he framed it "people are saying" or whatever. Happy to concede you have some argument here but I think we're not that fussed generally about where our Fed MPs come from. I guess we don't like Sydney siders.

 

[Magruder]

Victorians aren't as parochial as Queenslanders, but they're more parochial than they'd probably care to admit IMO (they hate Dutton for lecturing them about Sudanese gangs), and my understanding is that while The Fry has issues down there, ScoMo is outright hated.

This is obviously a bit generalised But We’re seeing an increased emphasis on the unique characteristics of particular electorates in VIC. (And probs the rest of the country.) Micro-parochialism if you will.

Seats such as Goldstein, based largely around Brighton, are what I would describe as having strong identities Based around collective memory in a locale. Generations Are tied to the area through institutions and clubs/associations and shared history. I think of them, almost as small towns. Wilson isn’t quite “one of us”, he’s more Mornington than Brighton and his views are not reflective of the majority of his constituents. He was parachuted in.

Brighton/Goldstein IS parochial But it won’t matter who is leading the party.

Daniels isn’t Goldstein born and bred but she’s been chosen by those who are. Wilson isn’t there to represent their views, he isn’t one of them. I mean an IPA stooge in parliament for a bunch of Fraser/Peacock/Heseltine Tories? (not simply coz Morrison is unpopular or Dutton even less so).

This election will have its parochial elements, but in many cases a narrative constructed around which potential party leader is popular on a state by state basis is a little simplistic.

Absolutely.

I'm just making the point that Albo's basically a Beazley/Biden/Annastacia - a challenger who doesn't really arouse strong feelings one way or the other.

Agree.

and frankly, it’s all that’s required.

Make it about the other guy‘s ineptitude and personal characteristics and don’t give the punters reasons to vote against you.

 

[DaRick]

This is obviously a bit generalised But We’re seeing an increased emphasis on the unique characteristics of particular electorates in VIC. (And probs the rest of the country.) Micro-parochialism if you will.

Seats such as Goldstein, based largely around Brighton, are what I would describe as having strong identities Based around collective memory in a locale. Generations Are tied to the area through institutions and clubs/associations and shared history. I think of them, almost as small towns. Wilson isn’t quite “one of us”, he’s more Mornington than Brighton and his views are not reflective of the majority of his constituents. He was parachuted in.

Brighton/Goldstein IS parochial But it won’t matter who is leading the party.

Daniels isn’t Goldstein born and bred but she’s been chosen by those who are. Wilson isn’t there to represent their views, he isn’t one of them. I mean an IPA stooge in parliament for a bunch of Fraser/Peacock/Heseltine Tories? (not simply coz Morrison is unpopular or Dutton even less so).

This election will have its parochial elements, but in many cases a narrative constructed around which potential party leader is popular on a state by state basis is a little simplistic.



Agree.

and frankly, it’s all that’s required.

Make it about the other guy‘s ineptitude and personal characteristics and don’t give the punters reasons to vote against you.

Thanks for the insights RE Goldstein. Really appreciate it.

From afar, Goldstein broadly struck me as a Tree Tory electorate. Socially progressive, pro-climate change, inner-city, quite a few stereotypical 'doctor's wives' - basically anathema to Morrison, and certainly to the 'coalies' up in Flynn/Herbert/Dawson/Capricornia that he's been trying to court. I've also heard that Tim Wilson himself is widely regarded as a dickhead, and Zoe Daniels does seem to be a reasonably effective challenger.

I agree that judging a party's state-by-state performance based on how much the current PM is disliked there is simplistic, but it was a factor RE Shorten in QLD (he was involved in knifing a Queenslander in Rudd).

Also, to be fair I'm not a Victorian, so it's hard for me to get a nuanced picture of Victorian seats without assistance from locals like your good self.

 

[DaRick]

He has a lot of media clout so it definitely was a louder stupid voice than what the State MPs can muster. No doubt it was the smelliest of brain farts in the campaign. State Coalition are both untalented and forgettable. No doubt being an out of towner didn't help because IIRC he framed it "people are saying" or whatever. Happy to concede you have some argument here but I think we're not that fussed generally about where our Fed MPs come from. I guess we don't like Sydney siders.

Both QLD and VIC have a big rivalry with NSW. The "PM for NSW" will hurt in both states.

I heard that VIC and SA don't have the best relationship, either.