Polls Thread Mk III

[Vader]

The rising costs of living and housing will - rightly or wrongly - be attributed to Federal government economic mismanagement. No one really cares about Kimberly Kitching and the clique of ALP Senator bullies, the vast majority of Australians (and certainly the apathetic to politics ones) see the ALP Opposition as being competent and united so far. Albanese has not had any major gaffes and is sounding more Prime Ministerial by the day. More importantly, Morrison's 'daggy dad' persona is no longer winning votes as it is associated with inaction on flooding and fires and COVID.

Considering that economic prowess is - rightly or wrongly - associated with coalition governments, this seems like the death rattle of a dying government. If fuel is still above $2 a litre in May and people cannot afford their usual groceries, this will be an absolute bloodbath as the government will be seen to have failed at the one thing it's good at.

I think people could live with prices going up, if wages hadn't been stagnated for the last decade - and we know that wage suppression has been official Liberal Party policy, after Matthias Cormann openly admitted it a few years ago (in 2019).

People know that prices are going up because of international logistics issues, largely related to COVID and Trump's US/China trade war - compounded by the skyrocketing cost of oil as a result of the Ukraine invasion. None of this is Bozo's fault. Wage stagnation & wage suppression, however, are the fault of his Govt (and its immediate predecessors).

 

[QuietB]

I think people could live with prices going up, if wages hadn't been stagnated for the last decade - and we know that wage suppression has been official Liberal Party policy, after Matthias Cormann openly admitted it a few years ago (in 2019).

People know that prices are going up because of international logistics issues, largely related to COVID and Trump's US/China trade war - compounded by the skyrocketing cost of oil as a result of the Ukraine invasion. None of this is Bozo's fault. Wage stagnation & wage suppression, however, are the fault of his Govt (and its immediate predecessors).

I disagree that inflation is not their fault. You print cash you get inflation. That is an economic given.

I don't think anyone could argue that the Morrison government has spent that cash well. It has basically been handed out as cash to those who need it least which in turn has caused massive asset bubbles which in turn puts more pressure on inflation.

The whole western world has made the same mistake, but that does not mean it is not a mistake.

Again the Liberals had a once in a generation windfall (the entire world started the printing presses simultaneously - last one was Howards resources boom) and again they have wasted it.

$1 trillion - We have nothing to show for it.

 

[Forward Press]

I think people could live with prices going up, if wages hadn't been stagnated for the last decade - and we know that wage suppression has been official Liberal Party policy, after Matthias Cormann openly admitted it a few years ago (in 2019).

People know that prices are going up because of international logistics issues, largely related to COVID and Trump's US/China trade war - compounded by the skyrocketing cost of oil as a result of the Ukraine invasion. None of this is Bozo's fault. Wage stagnation & wage suppression, however, are the fault of his Govt (and its immediate predecessors).

Fair enough, I should have qualified it with when people are generally accepting of circumstances beyond the government's control.

When they arrive at the checkout with their usual grocery shop and it's 15% more than last year, though - they will get pissed off about it even if indirectly we know it's due to global unpredictability.

 

[Hornberger]

Looking at the opinion polls for elections since 2018 for which a TPP poll was conducted in the week before election day.

In each of the 5 elections (final SA result still pending), the polls have understated the vote for incumbents by an average of 3.1%. That is for three Labor governments (Vic 2018, QLD 2020, WA 2021) and 2 LNP Governments (NSW 2019, Fed 2019).

The sample sizes wasn't the best, with some elections having only one or two opinion polls, and all elections saw the Government returned to office.

Are the opinion polls biased against the incumbents?

 

[Crankyhawk]

Looking at the opinion polls for elections since 2018 for which a TPP poll was conducted in the week before election day.

In each of the 5 elections (final SA result still pending), the polls have understated the vote for incumbents by an average of 3.1%. That is for three Labor governments (Vic 2018, QLD 2020, WA 2021) and 2 LNP Governments (NSW 2019, Fed 2019).

The sample sizes wasn't the best, with some elections having only one or two opinion polls, and all elections saw the Government returned to office.

Are the opinion polls biased against the incumbents?

Perhaps unhappy people more likely to respond to pollsters?

 

[Fire]

Well the SA election has underestimated the oppositions margin by over 1% so far.

People are more likely to voice negative opinions, but I dont know how big a factor that would be, as anger will not always be directed at the incumbent. I mean take the WA wipe out. It's hard for the 17 people who ended up voting for the Libs or Nats to have had an impact in that regard.

 

[Fire]

Going through the Morgan state by state breakdown is also fascinating.

Victoria is truly scorched earth for the LNP; if that number is accurate then the rest don't matter. No one is going to form government with those kind of numbers from the second biggest state.

Forget trying to count the seats the Libs can hold with that 2PP. They are going to struggle to fill quotas

WA is the most shocking and least believable though. I do not have a finger on the pulse of WA, but from an outsider's perspective, I find it hard to believe that the coalition of parochial weirdos, NIMBYs who protest over roundabouts, and old school english racists that make up a large chunk of their demographic are picking up the hammer and sickle in such vast quantities.

And QLD is apparently from the mirror universe where everything Morrison touches does, in fact, not turn to shit. And I am disappointed but hardly surprised to discover that the universe I have been living in has been the evil one all along.

 

[Pessimistic]

If there is a wipeout, they will go further crazy right, Morrison winning 2019 could have been the best thing ever

 

[Pessimistic]

Going through the Morgsn state by state breakdown is also fascinating.

Victoria is truly scorched earth for the LNP; if that number is accurate then the rest don't matter. No one is going to form government with those kind of numbers from the second biggest state.

Forget trying to count the seats the Libs can hold with that 2PP. They are going to struggle to fill quotas

WA is the most shocking and least believable though. I do not have a finger on the pulse of WA, but from an outsider's perspective, I find it hard to believe that the coalition of parochial weirdos, NIMBYs who protest over roundabouts, and old school english racists that make up a large chunk of their demographic are picking up the hammer and sickle in such vast quantities.

And QLD is apparently from the mirror universe where everything Morrison touches does, in fact, not turn to shit. And I am disappointed but hardly surprised to discover that the universe I have been living in has been the evil one all along.

Qld seem to have a perverse sense of imposing the coalition on the rest of us, but have hardly returned the lnp to the state since the sir Joh days

Thanks for that qld

 

[Hornberger]

Well the SA election has underestimated the oppositions margin by over 1% so far.

ALP is currently sitting at 54.4% TPP.
There was two opinion polls in the week before the election - YouGov was 56/44, Newspoll was 54/46. On average it is 55/45. Labor is slightly underperforming the polls.

 

[Fire]

ALP is currently sitting at 54.4% TPP.
There was two opinion polls in the week before the election - YouGov was 56/44, Newspoll was 54/46. On average it is 55/45. Labor is slightly underperforming the polls.

Oh I see how you came to those numbers then.

Yeah I dont think all polls are equal. YouGov especially can be comfortably binned.

 

[Pessimistic]

ALP is currently sitting at 54.4% TPP.
There was two opinion polls in the week before the election - YouGov was 56/44, Newspoll was 54/46. On average it is 55/45. Labor is slightly underperforming the polls.

Yes the same polling had Turnbull replace Abbott, and then Morrison replace Turnbull it’s crazy time

 

[Hornberger]

Oh I see how you came to those numbers then.

Yeah I dont think all polls are equal. YouGov especially can be comfortably binned.

According to poll bludger, both the Newspoll and the YouGov poll was actually conducted by the same people but with a different sponsor (The Australian v. Adelaide Advertiser's) and slightly different methodology.

 

[Hornberger]

Going through the Morgan state by state breakdown is also fascinating.

I wouldn't put much weight on the state by state results. The sample size (particularly for the smaller states) are quite small and the margin of errors is quite large.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Going through the Morgan state by state breakdown is also fascinating.

Victoria is truly scorched earth for the LNP; if that number is accurate then the rest don't matter. No one is going to form government with those kind of numbers from the second biggest state.

Forget trying to count the seats the Libs can hold with that 2PP. They are going to struggle to fill quotas

WA is the most shocking and least believable though. I do not have a finger on the pulse of WA, but from an outsider's perspective, I find it hard to believe that the coalition of parochial weirdos, NIMBYs who protest over roundabouts, and old school english racists that make up a large chunk of their demographic are picking up the hammer and sickle in such vast quantities.

And QLD is apparently from the mirror universe where everything Morrison touches does, in fact, not turn to shit. And I am disappointed but hardly surprised to discover that the universe I have been living in has been the evil one all along.

I can only get 2 seats for Labor in Vic (maybe 3)
The Senate might get Labor a seat too

 

[Kyptastic]

Quarterly Newspoll results

 

[Rustin Cohle]

QLD once again proving to be Australia’s Florida

 

[Pessimistic]

QLD once again proving to be Australia’s Florida

The only place the primary vote for lnp isn’t 6 points behind labor.

That’s primary vote even counting anomaly

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Latest Morgan (20 March to 27 March)

55.5 - 44.5

 

[NSWCROW]

Latest Morgan (20 March to 27 March)

55.5 - 44.5

Weird one when you see Labor cut the libs lead in QLD

 

[DaRick]

58-42 was unsustainably high, anyway.

This one just goes the other way - not sure if it's the start of the inevitable poll tightening or what...

 

[Fire]

I thought there might be a newspoll today as it's been 3 weeks but apparently not?
A question for the gurus in here; does newspoll announce when they will drop a poll in advance, and if so where can one go to get this info?

On SM-G955U1 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NSWCROW]

I thought there might be a newspoll today as it's been 3 weeks but apparently not?
A question for the gurus in here; does newspoll announce when they will drop a poll in advance, and if so where can one go to get this info?

On SM-G955U1 using BigFooty.com mobile app

It's up

54-46

 

[Vindicater]

54-46.

Basically been bakednin now for about two months

 

[NSWCROW]

Ipsos 55-45