Polls Thread MkII

[Nankervis brothers]

But in terms of politicians and the ability to come back, Gillard is not fit to tie the bootlaces of Keating or Howard.

She is toxic. And useless.

Nice to see you rabbiting a Coalition one-liner from parliament the other day. Very original.

Sloganeering aside, she is far from useless. That is evident from the growing legislation she has managed to pass whilst in a minority government, just as it was evident in her ability to comprehensively out maneuver Abbott when negotiating with the independents, and her own caucus when fending off Rudd.

But she is toxic when considered from the point of view of 'politics' and personality. Actually, Gillard and her government's problem isn't really policy, and will become even less so as the carbon tax becomes an accepted part of life. Her problem is politics and personality. The kind of superficial tripe many base their vote on. And that will be a problem she may not be able to get around - not even if she manages a surplus, economic growth, holds good unemployment figures, and has a bag of hard won reforms achieved in minority government (basically, the kind of stuff usually associated with a successful government).

 

[bombermick]

I half-agree with Nankervis. She isn't useless, as she has proven herself quite a good administrator.

She has three big problems. She isn't a leader, and her papers were signed once she reneged on not introducing a carbon tax this term. Once she did that it was all over. The third is I don't believe the electorate still know what she came into politics to achieve.

 

[Inferno]

The third is I don't believe the electorate still know what she came into politics to achieve.

I think this is an underrated issue. When asked what she wants to achieve she responds with things like "a better health system, a stronger education system" etc etc. Things so broad that Hitler to Stalin to everyone in between could say it without anyone raising an eyelid. Virtually all her key policies are either ideas from outside the ALP (carbon tax, pokies) or from the Rudd era (NBN, BER, health reforms, mining tax). Her only major policy with her name on it so to speak was the Malaysian Solution which ended in disaster.

Because of these factors, plus the backflip on the carbon tax, plus the way she got rid of Rudd, plus her inability to communicate to the point that it seems like she's lying or is in fact lying (Four Corners episode, cabinet reshuffle and I'm sure I'm missing a few) she is seen by the majority of people as nothing more then an ALP apparatchik who wants power for powers sake.

 

[Relativity]

Nice to see you rabbiting a Coalition one-liner from parliament the other day. Very original.

Sloganeering aside, she is far from useless. That is evident from the growing legislation she has managed to pass whilst in a minority government, just as it was evident in her ability to comprehensively out maneuver Abbott when negotiating with the independents, and her own caucus when fending off Rudd.

But she is toxic when considered from the point of view of 'politics' and personality. Actually, Gillard and her government's problem isn't really policy, and will become even less so as the carbon tax becomes an accepted part of life. Her problem is politics and personality. The kind of superficial tripe many base their vote on. And that will be a problem she may not be able to get around - not even if she manages a surplus, economic growth, holds good unemployment figures, and has a bag of hard won reforms achieved in minority government (basically, the kind of stuff usually associated with a successful government).

I think this is precisely the thinking that has got Labor on the nose so much nation wide. They can't comprehend that the populace just don't like their policies. Particularly the ones that they didn't go to an election on. They'd rather think that the voters are too dumb to understand them and that eventually they will fall into the fold when they've been better informed. This is electorally fatal thinking. The voter doesn't like being told that government knows better. They've been bitten by that dog on too many occasions across too many governments.

 

[bombermick]

I think this is an underrated issue. When asked what she wants to achieve she responds with things like "a better health system, a stronger education system" etc etc. Things so broad that Hitler to Stalin to everyone in between could say it without anyone raising an eyelid. Virtually all her key policies are either ideas from outside the ALP (carbon tax, pokies) or from the Rudd era (NBN, BER, health reforms, mining tax). Her only major policy with her name on it so to speak was the Malaysian Solution which ended in disaster.

Because of these factors, plus the backflip on the carbon tax, plus the way she got rid of Rudd, plus her inability to communicate to the point that it seems like she's lying or is in fact lying (Four Corners episode, cabinet reshuffle and I'm sure I'm missing a few) she is seen by the majority of people as nothing more then an ALP apparatchik who wants power for powers sake.

Yep. Everyone knew Howard's ambition was to make IR changes and then to bring in the GST (which the electorate was told about). Rudd had the ETS and the apology. I've got no idea what Gillard aims to do in public life.

Relativity is also spot on. This government has consistently had the attitude that the electorate would eventually wake up to the fact things aren't so bad. The response to the anti-carbon tax rallies was the best illustration of this arrogance, and so the electorate will treat them just like they treated Keating.

 

[poller]

Amazing to think we've got a government that only 28% of the populace wants to govern. The baseball bats are ready.

Even Abbott's foot-in-mouth disease (Whitlam comments) isn't enough to get Labor back in the game. The Labor brand is toxic, and the sooner they get into opposition, the sooner they can sort themselves out and provide a decent opposition.

throw that poll out of the window

it was during the qld election and a news ltd , help the opposition poll

The liberal party are losing ground from 2010 , the liberal party primary is about 2-4 seats less then 2010

 

[Footy Smarts]

throw that poll out of the window

it was during the qld election and a news ltd , help the opposition poll

The liberal party are losing ground from 2010 , the liberal party primary is about 2-4 seats less then 2010

Really? Care to explain? Personally that sounds rather...deluded.

 

[poller]

Really? Care to explain? Personally that sounds rather...deluded.

Out side of qld
The liberal party has more marginal seats around Australia then labor

the liberal party primary vote is 42-43%

which would give them 63 seats (included the seats of l-np in qld)

in the 2010 election lib primary was 43.6%

65-66 seats (included the seats of l-np in qld)


the coalition 2pp was less then 50% in the 2010 election


the coalition would not have a majority government

 

[tandino]

The Coalition party primary vote isn't sitting at 42-43, for a start. If you look at Newspoll, they haven't been 43 or under for over a year.

They also have not been under 50% 2PP for essentially the entire term of this current Government.

The Coalition's 43.6% at the 2010 election includes WA Nationals votes. Under that assumption, it would give the Coalition 73 seats in this Parliament, not 65-66.

The way the polls sit at the moment, if the Coalition took those numbers to an election, they could not lose.

 

[tazzietiger]

Nielsen Poll

Primary
ALP 27 (-7)
Coalition 47 (+3)

2PP
ALP 43 (-4)
Coalition 57 (+4)

Preferred PM
Gillard 45 (-1)
Abbott 48 (+1)

Price on Carbon
Support 36
Oppose 60

 

[tazzietiger]

It seems the Nielsen Poll is backing up the bad alp numbers from News Poll latest(23/3) that some on here was calling a rogue poll.

 

[GuruJane]

Statewide breakdowns in latest Neilsen just confirms that previous Neilsen (and Newspoll) were skewed because the voters polled at the time were under misapprehension that KRudd was going to win the leadership challenge. Not surprising misapp given all the populist "celebrity" publicity Kev was getting.

As result, Labor's support in QLD and NSW improved considerably in Qld and NSW but DROPPED in Vic and SA (both Gillard states). Now reality has sunk in, with addition of overlay of Qld result, Labor reaches new lows in Qld, close to its lows in NSW but improves in Vic and SA.

If coalition wins in landslide next election it will be because Qld and NSW will lead the way.

 

[MisterMarcus]

Statewide breakdowns in latest Neilsen just confirms that previous Neilsen (and Newspoll) were skewed because the voters polled at the time were under misapprehension that KRudd was going to win the leadership challenge. Not surprising misapp given all the populist "celebrity" publicity Kev was getting.

As result, Labor's support in QLD and NSW improved considerably in Qld and NSW but DROPPED in Vic and SA (both Gillard states). Now reality has sunk in, with addition of overlay of Qld result, Labor reaches new lows in Qld, close to its lows in NSW but improves in Vic and SA.

If coalition wins in landslide next election it will be because Qld and NSW will lead the way.

The state-based breakdowns are from small samples though so will always be volatile.

Neilsen backing up Newspoll and Morgan (which is always about 2-3% better for Labor, currently sitting on 55-45 I believe).

Possibly still just a Queensland election backwash, although possibly the leadership challenge firmed up the Labor vote which has now withered away again.

The nightmare scenario for Labor is that having tried to put the leadership issue to bed, they're going to have to start dealing with it all over again. How long til Kevin Ru...I mean, an "anonymous Labor source" starts leaking against Gillard again??

 

[pjcrows]

Cheers for posing the Nielsen tazzie

Horrendous figures for the Government. They would have been hoping to hold ground right about now, and then hope for coverge of the surplus and moving into July as the increased payments kick in.

As it stands though, a bit of ground taken back at this time will only bring it back to 54-46 territory, rather than 52-48 as they would have hoped.

Despite it being 12 months+ until an election, and despite Abbott's dismal approval, I can't see how the Government can win the next election. I still don't think the Coalition will romp it home (eg. a gain of 20+ seats) but there's no forseeable way that Labor will not lose at least 6 seats.

They need a miracle.

 

[tazzietiger]

despite Abbott's dismal approval, I can't see how the Government can win the next election.

Don't forget Gillards dismal approval numbers which in the Nielsen poll was worse than Abbott's.

Gillard: Approve 36 (0) Disapprove 59 (-1)
Abbott: Approve 39 (-2) Disapprove 56 (0)

 

[Dan26]

It's interesting that the Queensland election result 2PP was about 62-38 or something which was a bigger margin than any of the polls predicted during the campaign.

If that same trend happens for nexts years national election the 57-43 poll numbers could blow out to 61-39 or something like that on election day itself - just like the qld election did.

People don't like being lied to, it's as simple as that.

When you combine the lying with the fact that the carbon tax essentially WEAKENS the economy, you have a situation that Labor can't, shouldn't, and don't deserve to recover from.

Essentially they lied, in order to bring somethign in that hurts the country for no measureable or meaningful gain. That's incompetence for you.

I hope the bastards are totally wiped out.

I look forward to lots of lefties on these forums never voting for them again. How could they? How could anyone?

 

[MisterMarcus]

Essential edges out to 55-45, pretty much bringing it in line with the other polls.

 

[pjcrows]

Essential edges out to 55-45, pretty much bringing it in line with the other polls.

The Queensland election, and the fact that people now realise Gillard is in for the long haul, shifts the trend away from the Government at a time when you would expect it to be going in the other direction or atleast remaining stable.

 

[tandino]

She's suffocating in all that post-spill clear air.

 

[pjcrows]

She's suffocating in all that post-spill clear air.

Pay that.

 

[kimp]

Bad times in Laborland. Been out of the country since the state election and my timing couldn't be better. The Palmer influence is not going to be pretty.

I now accept that Federal Labor won't recover even post July. Let's hope they get rid of as much middle class welfare as possible this budget so at least the country has a better tax/spend structure going forward.

 

[Dry Rot]

I now accept that Federal Labor won't recover even post July. Let's hope they get rid of as much middle class welfare as possible this budget so at least the country has a better tax/spend structure going forward.

You don't really believe these gutless clowns will do that?

Bad times in Laborland. Been out of the country since the state election and my timing couldn't be better. The Palmer influence is not going to be pretty.

Don't worry - the recent polls are wrong.

They don't take account of the inevitable and significant Carr factor, which undoubtedly will save the govt.

 

[pjcrows]

Newspoll quarterly

Coalition 54
Labor 46

Morgan Poll

Coalition 53.5
Labor 46.5

 

[tazzietiger]

The break down in the Newspoll data doesn't look pretty for ALP. http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/04/09/1226322/365831-120410-newspoll-analysis.pdf

 

[pjcrows]

The break down in the Newspoll data doesn't look pretty for ALP. http://resources.news.com.au/files/2012/04/09/1226322/365831-120410-newspoll-analysis.pdf

It's not pretty, but they've improved in most areas since mid last year. They're +4 in QLD and +5 in NSW since September. Surprised me. Still an electoral bloodbath, but we're only half way through a term.

Interesting to see that the Coalition have only picked up just over 1 point on the primary since the 2010 election.