Vic Predict the 2026 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

The most crucial moment of the 2026 Victorian election will come at the first TV leaders debate, between Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen and her opposite number Brad Battin. If the debate is on the ABC, when moderator David Speers asked the question "How would you deal with the economic crisis facing Victoria at this point in time?", it will be interesting to hear Battin's response to the question. Would he outline his party's economic plan to revitalize Victoria, or talk about crime instead?

 

[The Punter]

The most crucial moment of the 2026 Victorian election will come at the first TV leaders debate, between Victorian Premier Jacinta Allen and her opposite number Brad Battin. If the debate is on the ABC, when moderator David Speers asked the question "How would you deal with the economic crisis facing Victoria at this point in time?", it will be interesting to hear Battin's response to the question. Would he outline his party's economic plan to revitalize Victoria, or talk about crime instead?

If this is true, then there will be no crucial moments. Nothing would change if there were no debates.

 

[Saint]

Battin's a bit of a free thinker in this regard: I would be surprised if we don't have a law and order policy platform that doesn't include some "prevent at the source" policies that won't be on the "tougher sentencing" side of the fence. But there will be that as well.

As I mentioned in one of my posts earlier, the tax reduction and return the budget to surplus requires some explanation not yet forthcoming. I am sure that Labor will frame this as cuts to essential services, but this can be addressed with specificity. If it were me, I would be talking about dramatically reducing the number of high paid executives in the public service with no cuts below EL1. This government has vastly expanded the number of executives in the VPS, working jobs paying over $200,000 per annum, taking meetings and approving briefs and providing little service to the public. Their salaries are all recurring expenditure too. The government could save significant money by committing to these cuts.

No problem with any of that.

As usual, the ALP is drifting well into hubris, appointing all those execs.

If I were the Libs, I would talk about a re-structure and pick a Department to remove (amalgamate into another department probably DJSIR, put jobs and skills with education, Industry with Energy and Regions with Families Fairness and Housing). Add in streamlining other Departments and people would be able to swallow it. But how much would it save to the budget?

Letting people like Taylor in Bayswater walk because he's not enough of an ALP union lawyer type is very typical of the ALP and how they self-select ALP lifers. Anyone with talent who isn't an ALP lifer would never sign up for a State MP salary. You get paid more to just work in a department.

A bit like Andrew Leigh federally. Probably their best finance, economics or treasury person, but because he's not an ALP lifer, he can't get a look-in at a senior position.

 

[MJG14]

Any chance of the Coalition taking a leaf out of US President Donald Trump’s playbook and use the terms ‘Make Victoria Great Again’ (MVGA) as its 2026 Victorian election campaign slogan?

They could do this if they want to embarrass themselves with another poor election performance.

 

[The Punter]

No problem with any of that.

As usual, the ALP is drifting well into hubris, appointing all those execs.

If I were the Libs, I would talk about a re-structure and pick a Department to remove (amalgamate into another department probably DJSIR, put jobs and skills with education, Industry with Energy and Regions with Families Fairness and Housing). Add in streamlining other Departments and people would be able to swallow it. But how much would it save to the budget?

Letting people like Taylor in Bayswater walk because he's not enough of an ALP union lawyer type is very typical of the ALP and how they self-select ALP lifers. Anyone with talent who isn't an ALP lifer would never sign up for a State MP salary. You get paid more to just work in a department.

A bit like Andrew Leigh federally. Probably their best finance, economics or treasury person, but because he's not an ALP lifer, he can't get a look-in at a senior position.

Intel I have is Taylor is not liking the work demands with a very young family. I'm not sure about his factional alignment. Dr Leigh is unaligned which how it was always explained to me why he has not gotten a more senior portfolio, but it's not like the ones who have been promoted ahead of him (Chalmers, Mulino, Charlton) aren't also pretty well qualified in economics.

There have been enough departmental mergers and restructurings IMO. And those never effect DPC, DTF, Ed or Justice. Health and Human Services get merged then unmerged then merged then unmerged again. So it's always what is left for minimal effect.

 

[Saint]

Intel I have is Taylor is not liking the work demands with a very young family. I'm not sure about his factional alignment. Dr Leigh is unaligned which how it was always explained to me why he has not gotten a more senior portfolio, but it's not like the ones who have been promoted ahead of him (Chalmers, Mulino, Charlton) aren't also pretty well qualified in economics.

There have been enough departmental mergers and restructurings IMO. And those never effect DPC, DTF, Ed or Justice. Health and Human Services get merged then unmerged then merged then unmerged again. So it's always what is left for minimal effect.

State MPs have it a lot easier than Federal ones. But if you've got talent, you'd be making more money in the private sector than as an MP and unless you're looking at a senior cabinet position, there's no reason you'd stay for more than 3 terms.

I got the feeling he might have left before the last election if it weren't for the merging of seats, the ALP convinced him to go again and he got a swing over Wakeling.

A lot of the mergers and restructurings haven't really had a specific purpose of reducing senior head-count. They always seem to be governance by committee. If they said "we're going to cut executives (above a certain level) by 10% and merge Department X and Y. At least it shows they've thought about it.

Dutton tried just saying "efficiency dividends = billions saved" and it was pointless and made them look less qualified, not more capable.

 

[The Punter]

State MPs have it a lot easier than Federal ones. But if you've got talent, you'd be making more money in the private sector than as an MP and unless you're looking at a senior cabinet position, there's no reason you'd stay for more than 3 terms.

I got the feeling he might have left before the last election if it weren't for the merging of seats, the ALP convinced him to go again and he got a swing over Wakeling.

A lot of the mergers and restructurings haven't really had a specific purpose of reducing senior head-count. They always seem to be governance by committee. If they said "we're going to cut executives (above a certain level) by 10% and merge Department X and Y. At least it shows they've thought about it.

Dutton tried just saying "efficiency dividends = billions saved" and it was pointless and made them look less qualified, not more capable.

Which is why I advocated for specificity. The efficiency dividends, or leaving departments to get to a target through their own initiative, is not the way forward politically. I was there in the public service during Baillieu/Napthine and they went down the efficiency target road. With some departments targets were achieved and quickly. Other departments just ignored them.

 

[Saint]

Which is why I advocated for specificity. The efficiency dividends, or leaving departments to get to a target through their own initiative, is not the way forward politically. I was there in the public service during Baillieu/Napthine and they went down the efficiency target road. With some departments targets were achieved and quickly. Other departments just ignored them.

Then you replace the Department head if they ignore it.

In my company, when HQ said to reduce the headcount by x%, it gets done within weeks. There have been redundancies across the country for the last 2 years, the Public Service is too full of lifers who have no experience of how it could be done better.

They need to decentralise Canberra Departments to diversify career paths in the various levels of public service in state capitals and create greater competition and promote on ability rather than tenure.

 

[The Punter]

Then you replace the Department head if they ignore it.

In my company, when HQ said to reduce the headcount by x%, it gets done within weeks. There have been redundancies across the country for the last 2 years, the Public Service is too full of lifers who have no experience of how it could be done better.

They need to decentralise Canberra Departments to diversify career paths in the various levels of public service in state capitals and create greater competition and promote on ability rather than tenure.

Probably a main failing of Baillieu. He kept the VPS head from the previous government. Napthine changed VPS head in a manner of weeks, Andrews the day after being elected.

 

[Saint]

Probably a main failing of Baillieu. He kept the VPS head from the previous government. Napthine changed VPS head in a manner of weeks, Andrews the day after being elected.

There's probably an argument to be made that that very top level of Public Servants should serve the same term as the Govt.

 

[The Punter]

There's probably an argument to be made that that very top level of Public Servants should serve the same term as the Govt.

Certainly you should have an idea of who you want to be the VPS head, and probably other department secretaries, before election day.

 

[Saint]

Certainly you should have an idea of who you want to be the VPS head, and probably other department secretaries, before election day.

Do you think modern politicians think like this? Like really some critical thinking? They don't even know what portfolio they're going to have because they're all lawyers and small business people who have no idea how a Government is organised and run. This is true for both parties, they're so disconnected from how organisations run because they're career politicians and maybe worked in a Partnership organisation and know how the party works and all of these are very different to Government structure and organisation.

 

[The Punter]

Do you think modern politicians think like this? Like really some critical thinking? They don't even know what portfolio they're going to have because they're all lawyers and small business people who have no idea how a Government is organised and run. This is true for both parties, they're so disconnected from how organisations run because they're career politicians and maybe worked in a Partnership organisation and know how the party works and all of these are very different to Government structure and organisation.

I think we are worse at this than Labor because we don't trust the public service, despite the fact we probably need them more as a policy engine.

But it's not necessarily the "career politician" thing, although if you work your entire career in a political office, that doesn't help. A simple balance of working in small offices and large organisations would give people a better appreciation of how organisations work, which is kind of the very essence of politics.

 

[Saint]

I think we are worse at this than Labor because we don't trust the public service, despite the fact we probably need them more as a policy engine.

But it's not necessarily the "career politician" thing, although if you work your entire career in a political office, that doesn't help. A simple balance of working in small offices and large organisations would give people a better appreciation of how organisations work, which is kind of the very essence of politics.

It's interesting that a good chunk of Liberal support is split between people who think Government is all waste and laziness and another chunk of people who think the Government are undertaking very complicated conspiracies involving 20 minute cities and chemicals in planes.

Anyone who has ever been in the Public Service would know that the people generally have good intentions but also that a complex conspiracy would not only likely fail, but also not be kept a secret for very long.

Whenever anybody says stuff like either of those, you already know they have no idea how the Public Service works and that they should definitely not be in charge of them.

 

[The Punter]

It's interesting that a good chunk of Liberal support is split between people who think Government is all waste and laziness and another chunk of people who think the Government are undertaking very complicated conspiracies involving 20 minute cities and chemicals in planes.

Anyone who has ever been in the Public Service would know that the people generally have good intentions but also that a complex conspiracy would not only likely fail, but also not be kept a secret for very long.

Whenever anybody says stuff like either of those, you already know they have no idea how the Public Service works and that they should definitely not be in charge of them.

I think it speaks to a larger problem with people seeing others they don't have much interaction with as not "real people" living in the "real world".

 

[Jascave]

Seeing that the Lobster Cave in Beaumaris has recently closed its doors brought back memories of what happened in 2018 where the then Opposition Leader Matthew Guy hosted a Liberal Party fundraiser before the election. Guy was campaigning on a anti-crime platform (sounds familiar?) which would hopefully surge the Liberals back into power against Daniel Andrews. When 'The Age' newspaper revealed that one of the guests at the function was a Mafia don, it blew any chance Guy ever had of becoming Premier. Andrews won in a landslide.

 

[The Punter]

Seeing that the Lobster Cave in Beaumaris has recently closed its doors brought back memories of what happened in 2018 where the then Opposition Leader Matthew Guy hosted a Liberal Party fundraiser before the election. Guy was campaigning on a anti-crime platform (sounds familiar?) which would hopefully surge the Liberals back into power against Daniel Andrews. When 'The Age' newspaper revealed that one of the guests at the function was a Mafia don, it blew any chance Guy ever had of becoming Premier. Andrews won in a landslide.

C'mon, whenever you mention this you need to include this extra bit or else you aren't doing it right.

 

[Ludovico]

C'mon, whenever you mention this you need to include this extra bit or else you aren't doing it right.

View attachment 2451588

And Brutus is an honourable man

 

[The Punter]

And Brutus is an honourable man

I'll keep an eye out for him at a preselection

 

[Ludovico]

I'll keep an eye out for him at a preselection

I'd be cautious of taking any meetings in March

 

[The Punter]

I'd be cautious of taking any meetings in March

Good tip - thanks

 

[Jascave]

Brad Battin might not have realise it at the time, but by promoting Jess Wilson ahead of James Newbury in the shadow cabinet and leaving his predecessor John Pesutto out in the cold, mainly because Battin doesn't want to upset Moira Deeming or her legion of supporters (ie Peta Credlin). Reckon Newbury to challenge Battin for the leadership by March 2026.

 

[The Punter]

Brad Battin might not have realise it at the time, but by promoting Jess Wilson ahead of James Newbury in the shadow cabinet and leaving his predecessor John Pesutto out in the cold, mainly because Battin doesn't want to upset Moira Deeming or her legion of supporters (ie Peta Credlin). Reckon Newbury to challenge Battin for the leadership by March 2026.

Battin appointed Newbury Shadow Treasurer. He did not promote Wilson (who is Shadow Minister for Education and Shadow Minister for Economic Growth) ahead of Newbury.

Neither of them are in Camp Deeming either.

 

[Jascave]

Who the media will back in the 2026 Victorian State Election:

Herald Sun/Australian/The Age: Coalition
Channel 9/3AW: Coalition
Guardian: Labor
ABC: Labor

 

[geoffjennings79]

C'mon, whenever you mention this you need to include this extra bit or else you aren't doing it right.

View attachment 2451588

True, never been charged. Just a victim by association...

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